Texas Rangers: Concern About Run Differential

The most basic rule in baseball is that if a team scores more runs than their opponent, they win the game. It should follow that run differential is then indicative of how good a team is. The Texas Rangers seem like a very good team, but their run differential says differently.

The Texas Rangers weren’t supposed to win their division this year. That title was expected to go to the young and flashy Astros. When the Rangers made their run to the top during late June into July, they looked like an incredibly good team. They were stringing multiple wins together at a time. They were winning the close games in exciting fashion. It seemed like they were well on their way to becoming the favorite in the American League.

Now that they have slightly cooled off from that hot three weeks or so, questions abound about the team. Their lack of starting pitching has always been a concern, and they did nothing at the deadline to improve it. They did, however, add two great players in Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran. Not only did they acquire those top tier players, they did it without giving up their “top 3” young players. With both Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara having impacts on the Major League team this season, it was crucial that any addition to the team would be made without either of those two players leaving. The Rangers were able to do exactly that at the deadline. 

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Last year their big deadline addition was Cole Hamels, who has proved incredibly important this season. He has essentially been their only consistent pitcher, with injuries hurting both Colby Lewis and Yu Darvish.

The Rangers are aware that their clear downfall is in the pitching department, but they took steps to improve the overall team as best they could at the deadline. Although they did improve the team at the deadline, is there reason to be concerned about their ability down the stretch? After all, their actual record is 69-50 while their Pythagorean record is just 59-60.

One of the biggest concerns when it comes to the Rangers and their record is their run differential. The Cubs made baseball news early in the season when they seemed to be on pace to have one of the best run differentials of all time. They currently sit at +194 in the category. The Rangers, on the other hand, held  a -1 run differential entering play Monday. With that run differential, they sit 17th in all of baseball. Every other team currently in line to make the playoffs has a run differential better than the Rangers. Only two of those teams have at least as many wins as the Rangers.

So how are the Rangers winning so many games with such a bad run differential? Well for starters they are 26-8 in one run games. Some will say they have won so many one run games because their team has an unwillingness to lose. Others will say that the record is due almost entirely to luck. Either way, the Rangers are cashing in on close games like nobody else in the league. For comparison’s sake, the Cubs are 16-16 in one run games and the Giants are 24-16.

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An affinity to coming out on top in close games can become crucial in the playoffs; however, it’s hard to tell if the Rangers’ record is sustainable. Reason tends to tell us that it is not, but that certainly doesn’t mean their success in those types of games won’t continue through the end of the season and playoffs. If the Rangers can continue to win close games all season, they will most likely be very successful in the playoffs.

On the other hand, there is undoubtedly room to be concerned about the Rangers run differential. Run differential can be skewed sometimes based on quality of competition, but even teams with great competition within their own division are posting good run differentials. The Red Sox, for example, have the third best record in a very good American League East. They are fourth in run differential with +103.

The Rangers two division opponents that are contenders for the playoffs both have higher run differentials than them as well. Essentially, the Rangers are barely squeaking by to get wins right now. They’re not scoring a whole lot of runs nor limiting other teams in runs scored, and they’re certainly not doing both at the same time. This is cause for concern for a team that will most likely face the Red Sox and Indians (4th and 3rd respectively in run differential) in the playoffs.

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Right now the Texas Rangers are getting by without outscoring their opponents. That probably won’t last for long. The Rangers need to improve or they might have unfriendly results in October. On the bright side, Fangraphs still has the Rangers with the highest World Series percentage in the West (6.6%) and third highest in the American League. At the end of the day, the Rangers may sit atop the league as champions, rising over teams with great run differential like the Cubs, Nationals, and Indians.