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MLB rookies are mimicking the historic class of 2015

By Brody Hilgenkamp

Aug 16, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) tags out Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) who was trying to steal second base during the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 16, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) tags out Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) who was trying to steal second base during the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

The 2016 MLB rookie class has players mimicking players from the historically good 2015 class.

Los Angeles Dodgers youngsters Corey Seager and Joc Pederson have similar beginnings to their MLB careers. Pederson was a September promotion in 2014, earned the starting job in center field the next Spring Training and competed for the National League Rookie of the Year. Seager debuted last September, earned the starting shortstop role this spring and will probably win the NL ROY.

Both players are examples of the youth movement that is sweeping baseball, and with so many young players, it’s easy to spot familiar narratives to a rookie season. One of last season’s story lines was the rookie class’ legitimate claim as the best ever. This season Seager’s rookie production is bordering on historic – more on that later. Other rookies have also chased history this season. Some rookies, such as Pederson, start out hot but fizzle as the weather got hotter.

These are all narratives that are familiar to baseball fans. They’ve happened to rookies before and they’ll happen again. So how does this rookie class compare to last year’s baby boom?

The position players of the 2015 rookie class amassed 84.6 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, while the pitchers totaled 49.1. Sixteen position players and eight pitchers had 2.0 WAR or more. Of those above 2.0 WAR, Kris Bryant (6.5), Matt Duffy (4.9), Francisco Lindor (4.6) and Anthony DeSclafani (3.2, most for pitchers) were at the high end while Miguel Sano, Jake Lamb and Ken Giles all barely made the threshold.

This season’s rookie position players don’t even come close. Entering play Wednesday position players totaled just 17.7 WAR and had a .297 weighted on-base average – the 2015 class had a .303 wOBA. While Seager (5.8) may end up with more WAR than Bryant, no other position player is yet above 3.0. Their total WAR will be middle of the pack historically.

The pitchers are holding their own. They have 40.7 WAR with eight pitchers above the 2.0 threshold; Steven Matz (2.8) and Michael Fulmer (2.6) lead the pack. Depending on the innings limit the Detroit Tigers put on Fulmer, this group may be better than 2015’s.

Now that we’ve established the overall comparison between the two rookie classes, let’s have a look at some specific case studies. (All stats entering Wednesday.)

Next: Pederson and Mazara

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