MLB: Mike Trout, Kris Bryant and MVP Voting

If MVP voters dock Mike Trout because of their own personal definition of the word “valuable”, they should do the same to Kris Bryant during MLB awards season.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is going to lead the American League in Wins Above Replacement (both versions, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). This will make the fifth straight year that Trout has been the best player in the American League. Despite this, the MLB superstar will likely walk away with a second-place finish in MVP voting for the fourth time in those five years.

Not only has Trout been the best player in the American League in each of the last five seasons, he’s been the best player by a considerable margin in three of those five years. The crazy thing is, he won the award during his least valuable season, 2014. Not coincidentally, that was the only year his Los Angeles Angels made the playoffs during this stretch.

Voters seem to bend over backwards to find a reason to not vote for Trout. Miguel Cabrera’s Triple Crown season in 2012 earned him the AL MVP even though Trout was between three and four wins better than Cabrera that year, according to the two versions of WAR. Cabrera won it again in 2013, despite Trout being two to three wins better. Trout was slightly better than Josh Donaldson last year, but Donaldson was on a playoff team so he won the award. Trout’s chances to win the MVP award have been dependent on the Angels making the playoffs. In a real sense, Trout’s teammates have cost him three MVP trophies and it will likely be a fourth after this season.

It’s interesting to look at the bizarre logic voters use with their “not on a playoff team” vote. Trout won the AL MVP with a unanimous 30 first-place votes in 2014. In 2012, 2013 and 2015, while leading the league each year in both versions of WAR, he received an average of six first-place votes and 21 second-place votes. The pattern appears to be that many voters will place a player from a playoff team above Trout, then Trout, then the other players from playoff teams on their ballots. They seem to only apply the “not on a playoff team” rule to prevent Trout from being on the top of the ballot, but they’ll gladly place him second.

One thing you may hear from a voter who is NOT voting for Mike Trout is the question, “How valuable can he be if his team didn’t make the playoffs?” Or, something along the lines of, “The Angels missed the playoffs with Mike Trout and would have missed the playoffs without Mike Trout, so what difference did he make?” Apparently, the 10 wins above replacement that Trout provided to the Angels were meaningless because they didn’t make the playoffs. Except, they can’t be totally meaningless because they are worthy of a second-place vote.

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This idea that the Angels could have finished out of the playoffs with or without Trout could be used a different way, although it never is. The Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant currently leads the National League in both versions of WAR. He’s been worth around eight wins above replacement this year. His Cubs have been the best team in baseball, with 101 wins so far. That’s eight more wins than the next-best team in the National League. Remove Kris Bryant from the Cubs and they still easily make the playoffs and win their division by 11 games. So what difference did Kris Bryant make to the Cubs?

You could take this a step further because of the high quality of the Cubs’ bench this year. If Bryant weren’t on the Cubs, Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella likely would have seen increased playing time. Baez has been worth nearly three wins above replacement in 442 plate appearances and La Stella has been worth 0.6 WAR in 165 plate appearances. Removing Bryant from the Cubs would likely not have meant a loss of eight wins because the Cubs have talent to replace him that is above replacement level.

To be clear, I would not dock Bryant because his team was so much better than every other NL team and would have finished in first place with or without him. An assessment of his value shouldn’t be diminished because of the great performance of his teammates. I don’t think that makes sense. I also don’t think it makes sense to dock Mike Trout because his teammates weren’t very good this year.

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The player most likely to win the AL MVP Award over Trout this year is Mookie Betts. He’s having a great year and his Red Sox are in the playoffs. Still, he’s not as good as Mike Trout. If you traded Betts to the Angels for Trout, the Red Sox would still be in the playoffs and the Angels still wouldn’t be and Trout would win the MVP Award. How does it make sense to reward Mookie Betts and knock Mike Trout because of how well or poorly their teammates played? Mike Trout is the best player in baseball for the fifth straight season. Give him the award he deserves.