AL MVP Award: My 10-Player Ballot

Numerous players made convincing cases for the 2016 AL MVP. These are my choices for the American League Most Valuable Player Award.

The MVP award is often the most argued about award given out in the postseason. It all centers around the word valuable. It would be much simpler if the award went to the Best Overall Player. Call it the BOA. That doesn’t have the same ring to it, though. Without explicit directions to choose the best player in the league, baseball writers come up with their own personal definition of the word valuable, which makes the process quite subjective. It allows the writers to factor in the caliber of team the player is on, with players on playoff-bound teams getting more consideration. The writers can also figure in clutch and historic performances, such as when a player sets a record or does something rarely seen before (like Miguel Cabrera’s recent Triple Crown year). Sometimes this results in the best player in the league not winning the MVP award.

As I’ve written before, I look at the MVP award as much in isolation as possible. I want to assess just the individual player. This is an individual award. For me, it doesn’t matter if his team makes the playoffs because he shouldn’t be dinged for having sub-par teammates.

Before I get to my AL MVP ballot, here are the official guidelines put out by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA):

Dear Voter:

There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.

Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.

Notice that it says right there in the directions to the voter that “the MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.” It also clearly states that “all players are eligible for the MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.” With this in mind, I won’t dock a player for playing on a non-playoff team, being a pitcher, or being a DH.

For my ballot, I took into account a combination of Fangraphs WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR, and Win Probability Added from both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. I believe Wins Above Replacement (WAR) does a good job of assessing everything a player does, including hitting, fielding, and base running, although I do acknowledge that currently we can judge a player’s offense more accurately than his defense. Win Probability Added “captures the change in win expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning” (definition from Fangraphs). Using WPA evens things up a bit for closers like Zach Britton and Andrew Miller because they often come into games in the most important moments and can have a bigger impact on the outcome of the game in these high leverage situations.

This is my ballot.