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2017 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot: The Last Chance For Raines and Smith

By Bobby Mueller

Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Former Montreal Expos player Tim Raines salutes the crowd during a ceremony before the game between teh Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Former Montreal Expos player Tim Raines salutes the crowd during a ceremony before the game between teh Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Expos former player and now a Toronto Blue Jays base running instructor Tim Raines before the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Expos former player and now a Toronto Blue Jays base running instructor Tim Raines before the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /

Will either of the final-ballot players—Lee Smith and Tim Raines—make the MLB Hall of Fame?

The recently released 2017 Hall of Fame ballot has 19 newly eligible players and 15 holdovers from last year. The most-likely Hall of Famer among the newly eligible is catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Rodriguez easily ranks in the top 10 among all catchers in baseball history and has an argument for the top five. He may not be voted in on his first ballot, but should be heading to Cooperstown soon enough.

Based on statistics alone, Manny Ramirez has Hall of Fame numbers, but he comes with considerable baggage after twice being suspended for performance-enhancing drug use. Barry Bonds was a vastly superior player and has topped out at 44.3% in the voting so far. If the writers won’t vote in Bonds, Manny doesn’t have a chance.

Another first-timer, Vladimir Guerrero, is a bit below Manny Ramirez statistically, but has a better shot at induction with the writers because he doesn’t have the off-field issues. Manny and Vlad are two of seven outfielders making their appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time.

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As usual, there are newcomers on the ballot who have no serious chance at being voted into the Hall of Fame. Guys like Freddy Sanchez, Arthur Rhodes, and Pat Burrell will get their one year on the ballot and then be summarily dismissed. There is one person who should have been on the ballot but was inexplicably left off—Javier Vazquez. Vazquez isn’t Hall-worthy, but he’s definitely ballot-worthy. He pitched in the big leagues for 14 years and had an ERA that was 5% better than league average. According to Fangraphs WAR, Vazquez was worth just two fewer wins than Jack Morris.

Along with the many newcomers on the ballot are 15 holdovers. Two of these players are facing their final chance at election by the BBWAA—Lee Smith and Tim Raines. The rules were changed recently to shorten the length of time a player can be on the ballot from 15 years to 10. Lee Smith was grandfathered in and is facing his 15th year on the ballot. Tim Raines wasn’t so lucky. He is on his 10th and final year on the ballot. Let’s take a look at their cases individually.

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