MLB Free Agency: All Quiet on the Jason Hammel Front

Jason Hammel looked poised to do quite well for himself in a thin MLB free agent class, but he hasn’t generated much buzz so far. Why are teams keeping their distance?

When the Chicago Cubs declined to pick up their 2017 option on Jason Hammel at the beginning of the offseason, it seemed like the stars were about to line up for the veteran pitcher. Among a very weak crop of free agent hurlers, the right-hander immediately rocketed toward the forefront.

Hammel enjoyed a solid season in 2016, winning 15 games for the Cubs along with a 3.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 2.72 K/BB ratio. He also appeared in at least 30 games for the third straight year. Those numbers appear to make him an appealing option for the middle of many rotations. And the afterglow of being on a World Series championship team doesn’t hurt either.

While the offseason is by no means over yet, things have remained rather quiet around Hammel. He’s watched late-season wonder Ivan Nova get a three-year deal to stay in Pittsburgh, the Dodgers give $48 million to Rich Hill, elder statesmen R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon catch on with the Braves, and even Derek Holland receive a speculative pick-up by the White Sox. Tangible reports or rumors pertaining to Hammel have been few and far between.

In fact, Hammel may be starting to feel a little frustrated himself. Just last week he decided to change agents. There’s no guarantee the move was directly related to his slow-developing free agency market, but it’s not too hard to connect the dots.

However, is it really surprising that teams haven’t exactly been jumping at Hammel to this point? Despite the respectable season he just had, at 34 years old he doesn’t represent a whole lot of upside. The Pirates could have been a possible suitor, but they evidently felt more comfortable taking their chances that the 29-year-old Nova would continue his strong form.

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A closer look at Hammel’s numbers last season reveals a few things to be concerned about as well. Though he made 30 starts for the Cubs, he averaged less than 5.2 innings per outing. For a club with a robust bullpen that might not be a deal-breaker, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind as you comb through starting pitching options.

Hammel’s 3.83 ERA was acceptable for a mid-to-back-end arm, but his 4.48 FIP was significantly higher. The righty likely received his fair share of help from the Cubs’ sturdy defense. His 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 were all his worst marks since 2013. Across his 11 major league seasons, Hammel has posted a 97 ERA+, suggesting he’s been just below average.

In a way, the Cubs feel like the ideal scenario for someone like Hammel – a very well-rounded team that can hide most of his weaknesses. It’s not too hard to envision Mike Montgomery sliding into the number-five spot in that rotation and racking up around 15 wins himself next year. But not every team is the Cubs, of course, and prospective buyers are going to need to determine just how likely Hammel is to succeed in their environment.

A move to the American League or any hitter-friendly venue seems ill-fated. For that reason, a club like the Yankees will probably pass even though they have a clear need in their rotation. The elbow trouble that impeded Hammel down the stretch could also be giving teams pause.

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Right now, Hammel looks like a pitcher caught in-between. Teams know he likely has more than a one-year deal coming to him, but they’re all hesitant to be the one to give it to him.

Nevertheless, someone will focus on Hammel’s good qualities and eventually bring him on board. The contract he ultimately receives might not be what he first imagined, but a two- or three-year deal still seems in the cards. What kind of team he joins, and the sort of role he will be asked to play in their rotation, remains to be seen.

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