Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber Batting Leadoff

The Chicago Cubs have a spot open in the top of their lineup. Will power-hitter Kyle Schwarber take on that role?

Dexter Fowler was a key part of the Chicago Cubs season in 2016. His ability to act as a table-setter at the top of the lineup earned him the catchphrase, “you go, we go.” He has since signed with the rival St. Louis Cardinals, leaving a hole in the top of the Cubs strong lineup. There are a few candidates to take his place in the leadoff role, but the most interesting among them is Kyle Schwarber.

Kyle Schwarber is yet to have a full season under his belt in the big leagues, but the Cubs remain high on his future. They certainly have good reason to be so confident. After an impressive rookie season where he showed his incredible power off, Schwarber was expected to be a huge part of a loaded Cubs team in 2016. Instead, he fell to injury during the first week of the season and wasn’t seen again until the postseason. After seeing just 273 plate appearances in his rookie season and sitting out for nearly all of the next, Schwarber impressed during his minimal playing time in the World Series.

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There were many questions about whether he would be able to hit after such a long break. The questions were legitimate. Schwarber hadn’t even had that many big league at bats during the 2015 season, so how on earth would he be ready for major league play in the most important series of the Cubs season? Kyle Schwarber answered all those questions with his play during the World Series. He didn’t hit a single home run, but his raw hitting ability was on display.

Schwarber remains somewhat of an unknown for the Cubs, however. He hasn’t had to fully adjust to any pitcher adjustments simply because of playing time. His strikeout rate remains high. There are reasonable questions about whether or not he will be a great player in 2017 and beyond. He seemingly answered all those questions with his play during the World Series.

Even if his bat remains as strong as it was during his rookie campaign, will he have what it takes to be put in the leadoff spot? For years and years leadoff hitters were speedy players who got on base. They took walks, failed to strikeout, stole bases, and were always among the fastest players on the team. In recent years, some teams have gone away from the traditional view of a leadoff hitter. While there has been movement away from a traditional top of the order, what the Cubs could do with Schwarber in 2017 would be entirely new.

The power hitters on a team typically hit in the 3, 4, and 5 spots in the lineup. Teams have assumed that putting their power bats near the middle of the order will allow them to drive in runs when the top of the order got on base. In Bryant, Schwarber, and Rizzo the Cubs have three great power hitters. They could perhaps be the best middle of the order in baseball. Instead, the Cubs look like they’ll put all three at the top of the order.

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A huge reason power hitters have been kept away from the top of the lineup is their general tendency to strike out. While Schwarber certainly has that aspect of his game (28.2% strikeout rate in 2015), it’s not crippling to his offensive ability. His .246/.355/.487 slash line shows room for improvement, but his .241 ISO, .307 TAv, and 13.2% walk rate show that at the core of it, he’s a great hitter. Great hitters benefit from increased plate appearances. Kyle Schwarber is no different. He will benefit from more trips to the plate, and so will the Cubs offense.

Because of the way the Cubs offense is structured, they are in a great position to put their power hitters at the top. At the bottom of their lineup they will have players like Jason Heyward, Albert Almora, and Willson Contreras. Heyward is working on his swing and may have a bounce-back season, Almora has shown flashes of being adequate with the bat, and Contreras looks primed to be one of the better hitting catchers in the league.

While other teams have players who struggle to get on base at the bottom of the order, the Cubs are slightly better in that area. The increased hitting ability at the bottom of the Cubs order means that, outside of the opening at-bat of the game, Schwarber will likely face a similar number of opportunities to drive runs in as he would have in the middle of the order. There’s no fear of the rally stopping with Schwarber either, because Bryant and Rizzo would be hitting behind him.

On a typical team, moving the three power hitters from the middle of the order to the top would mean more at-bats for the power hitters but would also leave a hole in the middle. Such is not the case for the Cubs. In the middle they would still have Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist. Russell is still yet to fully step into his offensive potential, and Zobrist has been a remarkably consistent hitter during his career.

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Schwarber may not hit leadoff for the entire season, or even for more than a few games; however, his case for leading off is certainly interesting. It’s taking a different angle to the game in an attempt to maximize offense. It’s allowing your best hitters to see more at bats and more pitches. It’s something that Joe Maddon is likely a fan of trying. Other options at leadoff, like Ben Zobrist, may be more traditional and safe, but when have we seen Maddon act traditional and safe?

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