Joey Votto: 2030 Hall of Fame Inductee

With parts of 10 seasons under his belt, it’s time to recognize that Joey Votto is quietly building a Hall of Fame career.

Major leaguers who play at least 10 seasons eventually can be considered for the Hall of Fame. Active players who debuted in 2007 have thus crossed this threshold and could theoretically receive consideration. Ryan Braun won the Rookie of the Year award in 2007, and the 33-year-old certainly has a route to the Hall of Fame depending on how history chooses to look upon PED users. However, the player to debut that season with the clearest path to immortality came to the big leagues as a September call-up and never looked back. Barring an unprecedented surge of support for Larry Walker, Joey Votto is poised to join Fergie Jenkins as the only Canadian players to be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Like Braun, Votto is 33, but he has a lot of baseball left in him. He is signed through 2023 and his 2024 option includes a $7 million buyout, so he likely has at least eight years to go. For someone who didn’t reach the majors until a week before his 24th birthday, putting up numbers in the back end of his career will be important. With a full no-trade clause and no desire to be relocated, it is entirely possible that Votto will play his whole career in a Cincinnati Reds uniform, which will work in his favor when it comes to narrative.

Until the 2016 season, Votto had displayed strong defense at first base. His 221 career home runs show that he is fully capable of hitting the long ball, but his batted ball profile shows his true nature as a line-drive hitter. Votto may not always hit the ball the hardest, but he rarely hits the ball soft. In his career, only 11.4 percent of the time has he made soft contact, which explains his outstanding .359 career batting average on balls in play.

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Votto has 1,407 career hits, but he is known for his patience and ability to work a count. Votto has led the National League in on base percentage five times, including in 2012 when he fell short of qualifying for the batting title by 27 plate appearances. However, his lead in the category was so significant that even 27 “outs” added to his .474 OBP left him 40 points ahead of Buster Posey. Votto’s career OBP of .425 leads active players by a wide margin and is 12th all-time.

Votto does have an MVP award, a near unanimous selection in 2010, but playing in a small market has prevented him from being one of the game’s more recognizable stars. Taking walks isn’t sexy, but it sure is productive. Votto has a career OPS+ of 157, which matches that of Albert Pujols and Tris Speaker.

Even accounting for an expected tailing off of production in his late 30s, Votto should easily surpass 2,500 hits and 400 homers to go along with a slash line that comfortably exceeds the pythagorean triple slash line of .300/.400/.500. According to Baseball Reference’s calculations, the average Hall of Fame first baseman has a career WAR of 65.9 and a seven-year peak WAR of 42.5, though these figure to increase with the elections of Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome and Pujols before Votto appears on the ballot.

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If his health cooperates, Votto should end his career with around 75 career WAR and 45 peak WAR, which would put him right in line with Frank Thomas. That’s not a bad place to wind up, and would certainly be worthy of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.