St. Louis Cardinals: Do They Have Enough to Startle the Cubs in 2017?

The Chicago Cubs bested the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time in quite a while last season. The St. Louis squad is not one for second place finishes. Can the Cardinals overtake the Cubs in 2017?

Who would have imagined a handful of years ago that the pathetic Chicago Cubs would soon rule the NL Central? Who would have imagined that the ever-powerful St. Louis Cardinals would be scrambling for division contention?

Sure everyone knew after the Cubs rebuilt their entire organization (front office included) that they were bound for some eventual success, but nothing like what is currently on display. There is no fault placed on the Cardinals. Even after a considerable down year, St. Louis still finished 10 games over .500 and only one game out of a playoff berth in 2016. They were simply outdone by an extremely talented and fearless Cubs team. The Cardinals had a respectable 9-10 head-to-head record against the Cubs last season. However, that did not make up for the absurd 17.5 games they finished behind Chicago at season’s end.

All that being said, 2016 has come and gone, and 2017 offers a new opportunity for St. Louis. Remember, the Cards are on a one-year playoff drought. Likewise, they are one year removed from a division title. The St. Louis Cardinals are a team with championship expectations season after season, and they have a front office which refuses to abandon the championship goal. Reasons like these make the idea of stealing the division back from the Cubs completely believable.

St. Louis made a couple of notable offseason moves to add talent to their deep roster. Offseason additions included, do the St. Louis Cardinals have enough to reconquer the NL Central?

St. Louis Cardinals 2017 Overview

At the plate

The most encouraging aspect of the projected Cardinals lineup is its balance. Top to bottom, the Cards have great contact hitters with the potential to hit for high averages. Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina are just a few who fit the description.

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Just skimming through the Cardinals roster, it doesn’t include any household power bats. While that may be true in terms of singularity, St. Louis flexed their muscles as a team in 2016. As a team, the Cardinals hit the second most home runs in baseball and the most in the National League. Off the top of your head, you’d assume Matt Holliday had a lot to do with that. Contrarily, Holliday contributed only 20 of those, and actually finished sixth on the team in the long ball category. Jedd Gyorko, the team leader in home runs in 2016, isn’t even projected to start in 2017. The Cardinals have sneaky power, the kind of power that can startle an opposing pitcher at any point in the lineup.

St. Louis topped the NL in home runs and they scored the second most runs last season. Although a new year, the team retained all of the same offensive pieces aside from Matt Holliday. The aging Holliday will essentially be replaced by the versatile Dexter Fowler. Fowler will not contribute the same power as Holliday; however, his overall savviness at the plate, on the base paths, and in the outfield will more than make up for Holliday’s absence.

The area of concern is the unknown at the cleanup spot. As mentioned above, the Cardinals have power, but who can hit cleanup? Odds are Stephen Piscotty gets the first try at it. Piscotty spent some time in the role last season and he did lead the team with 85 RBI. Matt Carpenter could pose a threat in the role, as could Randal Grichuk if he’s on a hot streak. Knowing manager Mike Matheny, the cleanup spot could be a revolving door in 2017.

On the bump

Believe it or not, starting pitching was the Achilles heel for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016. The staff pitched to a very modest 4.33 ERA, ranking in the middle of the pack in the NL. For a team that is accustomed to competing for a league-leading team ERA, St. Louis was off its game last season.

Carlos Martinez and rookie Alex Reyes were sensational in 2016; both are expected to repeat their dominance in 2017. It’s the head-scratching funk which overcame Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha that hindered St. Louis.

Wainwright, an habitual Cy Young candidate, had a 4.62 ERA and a BAA of .287 in 2016. Likewise, Wacha owned a horrendous 5.07 ERA and a BAA of .289. Wainwright maintained his workhorse effort, nearly hitting the 200-inning mark, but he struggled in his efforts to get there. Wacha averaged just over five innings per start and was ineffective for the greater part of 2016. Reflecting on the topic at hand, the St. Louis Cardinals have no chance to contend for a division title if Wainwright and Wacha aren’t performing.

In the pen

The St. Louis bullpen ranked seventh in the NL in ERA in 2016. The signing of Seung-hwan Oh proved genius. Oh was masterful in his first major league season. He converted 19 of 23 saves and struck out 103 batters in 79 innings pitched. St. Louis was wise to pick up Oh’s 2017 option; he will control the ninth inning in the coming season. Other outstanding efforts by Kevin Siegrist and Miguel Socolovich contributed to a good Cardinals bullpen. A bounce-back season for flame-throwing Trevor Rosenthal would work wonders for the relief crew. St. Louis needs Rosenthal to pose as a dominant setup man. Another nice complement to the bullpen will be Brett Cecil. The tenured reliever has a durable MLB track record and he will provide St. Louis a reliable option out of the pen.

How do they compare?

So, based on the analysis, can the St. Louis Cardinals retake the division from the Chicago Cubs? In my opinion, there’s a chance. The Cardinals are going to hit. Their offense will be consistent from day one, and the growth of their young talent should place them in a favorable position. In comparing the two lineups, the argument could be made that the Cardinals have a deeper lineup than the Cubs. Chicago has a hit-and-miss bottom of the order, while St. Louis has experience to cushion the tail-end of its lineup.

Both teams have impressive bullpens, but the edge goes to the Cubs. The offseason signings of Wade Davis and Koji Uehara gives the Cubs perhaps the best bullpen in MLB. That being said, St. Louis is not too far behind.

Starting pitching will be the kicker. Everyone knows about Chicago’s star-powered rotation, but St. Louis is not too far removed from their once star-powered staff. Once again, a return to form from Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha could propel the Cardinals from a good team to an outstanding team. Only then will they really stand a chance to compete with the Chicago Cubs. Of course, an injury to a starter or two for Chicago would certainly open up the sky for St. Louis. But I’m sure they would prefer earning a title through their hard work rather than the Cubs’ bad luck.

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Time will tell. Competition should be scarce for second place in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates could make a run, but it’s unlikely. A Wild Card game is only fun for the fans; no team wants to be in that sudden death situation, especially the prideful Cardinals. St. Louis will not fade and a second place division finish will not suffice. It’s only a matter of gutting out the World Series champs. A daunting and grueling task; however, the experience and capabilities of the St. Louis Cardinals make them worthy of the challenge.

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