Cincinnati Reds: Billy Hamilton Chasing Billy Hamilton
By David Hill
Cincinnati Reds speedster Billy Hamilton shares a name with another exciting speedster from the early days of baseball. However, it will take quite some time before this Hamilton can catch the original Billy Hamilton.
Last year, Cincinnati Reds speedster Billy Hamilton had what may have been his best season in the Majors. He produced a career best .260/.321/.343 batting line, stealing 58 bases in 66 attempts. This marked the third consecutive year that he has stolen over 50 bases, and after posting a career best 7.8% walk rate, Hamilton may finally be on the verge of becoming the leadoff hitter the Reds hoped he would be.
However, for as impressive as Hamilton’s 2016 season has been, particularly in the speed department, he has a long way to go before reaching another player with that name. The original Billy Hamilton, who played from 1888 through 1901, stole 914 bases in his Hall of Fame career. Hamilton also produced a .344/.455/.432 batting line, ranking seventh all time in batting average and fourth in on base percentage.
Given that the current Hamilton has produced a .248/.297/.334 batting line over his career, it is highly unlikely that he challenges his Hall of Fame namesake in that regard. However, given his impressive speed, it may be interesting to see exactly what he would need to accomplish in order to approach the original Hamilton in stolen bases.
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Through his age 25 season, the Reds Hamilton has amassed 184 stolen bases in his career, a total that already has him as the 23rd most prolific active base stealer. Meanwhile, at the same age, Billy the First had 343 steals, including three seasons where he swiped over 100 bags.
He retired at age 35, and was still a solid on base machine. This would give the current Hamilton ten years, if we keep the same ages, to attempt to match these totals. In order to do that, and reach that same stolen base plateau, the Reds speedster would need to average 73 steals a season. That seems all the more unlikely when one realizes that there have been exactly two seasons with 70+ steals since the turn of the century: in 2004 by Scott Posednick and in 2007 by Jose Reyes.
If a current player would be able to reach that mark consistently, it may well be the current Hamilton. He has improved as a baserunner, leading the league in times caught stealing in 2014 to ranking second in success in 2016. Likewise, he is getting more of an opportunity to run as his ability to get on base has improved.
And yet, the idea of stealing 730 bases in the equivalent of a decade is somewhat far fetched. While we have seen a bit of a revolution in regards to speed and an uptick in stolen bases, Juan Pierre had the most steals in the 2000’s, swiping a total of 459 bases. The renewed focus on speed will help Hamilton, but not that much.
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If the Cincinnati Reds Billy Hamilton is to catch his Hall of Fame namesake in steals, it will take a lot longer than a decade to do so. Chances are, the original Billy Hamilton will remain safe as the record holder for players with that name.