MLB Free Agency: Matt Wieters Could Become Offseason’s Biggest Bargain
By Tim Haberin
The longer Matt Wieters remains unsigned, the more likely a team will get an enviable deal on the former All-Star catcher.
As the offseason heads toward the finish line, Matt Wieters runs the risk of not finding a seat once the music stops. The catcher is hardly alone as he collects dust on the free agent shelf, but the market for him doesn’t seem to have moved much since the start of the winter. He was always going to be a bit of a hard sell on a big, multi-year contract – he’s not the promising young backstop he was with the Baltimore Orioles several seasons ago – but Wieters still brings some positive qualities to the table at a famously thin position.
Elbow surgery limited Wieters to just 101 games between the 2014 and 2015 campaigns. Though he managed to appear in 124 contest last year, teams are still going to be wary about his health moving forward, especially considering the physical demands of playing catcher. Wieters posted a .243/.302/.409 slash line along with 17 home runs and 66 RBI over 464 plate appearances. His 87 OPS+ was the lowest of his eight-year career.
It seems unlikely that Wieters, due to turn 31 in May, will again scale the heights he reached earlier in his career. From 2010 to 2012, he ranked fifth among all major league catchers with 10.4 fWAR, behind only Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz and Joe Mauer. Already one of the best backstops in the game, it appeared that Wieters would be in for a big payday once he hit free agency. In fact, Orioles manager Buck Showalter grumbled that the division rival Yankees would probably sign him.
How different things look a few years later. After the O’s inked Welington Castillo to (presumably) be their starting catcher, general manager Dan Duquette merely said of Wieters, “We wish him well.” It seems that the page has indeed been turned in Baltimore, but could their apparent decision to move on be another club’s gain?
The longer he remains unsigned, the more likely it is that Wieters will end up agreeing to a cheap, one-year “prove it” deal in hopes of reestablishing his value. Depending on your perspective, there is hope that Wieters could bounce back a little in 2017. He had a decent first half last season (.258/.310/.418), enough to earn him his fourth All-Star nod. However, he seemed to run out of steam after the break (.227/.294/.399). His BABIP also fell sharply from .299 to .231.
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Wieters’ second-half struggles aren’t too surprising for a player still working his way back from a significant injury. Perhaps this year he will be better suited to maintaining his production over the course of a full season. If so, he could be a shrewd pickup for a team looking to add a catcher at a bargain rate.
MLB.com’s Richard Justice recently speculated several possible landing spots, including the Angels, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Mets and even a last-minute reunion with the Orioles. An American League squad where he can DH might make the most sense. While Wieters’ defense behind the plate doesn’t rate poorly overall (1.1 dWAR in 2016), there are concerns about his throwing arm and pitch-framing ability.
When it looked like Wieters would be expecting a sizable multi-year contract, it’s not surprising that most clubs kept their distance. But on a potential one-year roll of the dice, he might be worth a look to see if he can recapture some of his earlier success. With Scott Boras as his agent, it’s always possible he could pull a rabbit out of the hat at the eleventh hour and land a deal that will raise eyebrows.
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That’s looking more unlikely with every day, though, and it seems Wieters could very well play the 2017 season under the same circumstances as he did the previous one: on a one-year contract, aiming to prove he is still worth that elusive long-term investment.