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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a baseball on the field prior to a game between the Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 19, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A general view of a baseball on the field prior to a game between the Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

What are the similarities and difference in the projected MLB standings when looking at PECOTA and FanGraphs Depth Charts?

The first iteration of projected standings have been released at Baseball Prospectus. Their system is called PECOTA, named after Bill Pecota, a journeyman infielder who spent nine years in the major leagues with three different teams and hit .249/.323/.354 in his career. He spent the majority of his career with the Kansas City Royals. He had his best season in 1991 and was then part of a trade that sent Bret Saberhagen to the New York Mets. His nickname with the Royals was I-29 because he was frequently traveling between Kansas City and their minor league team in Omaha, Nebraska, which was a short drive up Interstate 29 from Kansas City. He retired in 1994. If not for the PECOTA projection system, Bill Pecota would rarely be thought of.

PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It is Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary system. Each major league player has a projection based on previous statistics, regression to the mean, and a career-path adjustment based on comparable players from the past.

Another sabermetric site, FanGraphs, has their own projected standings. Their standings are currently based on Steamer projections. This system was created by Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom. The FanGraphs projected standings will add Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections to the mix when they have been completely released for the 2017 season.

Both of these projection systems will continue to incorporate new information as the season draws near. There are still free agents to be signed and position battles to play out. Their current projections are not set in stone.

Still, it’s fun to look ahead. Pitchers and catcher report next week, so projections are all we have for now. On the following slides, I will look at each division to see how the two systems project each team to do this year. For each division, I’ve included the projected win totals for each team, along with their projected runs scored and runs allowed. The odds for each team are shown in parenthesis and come from VegasInsider.com. These are the odds for each team to win the pennant. We’ll start with the AL East

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