MLB: Riskiest Free Agent Signings of the Offseason
By Joe Piazza
Every MLB offseason, there are a handful of high-risk signings that backfire. Last year, this came in the form of Chris Davis re-signing with the Orioles and Zack Greinke’s $206.5M contract with the Diamondbacks.
The 2016-2017 offseason has been a bit different, featuring only one $100M+ signing. Even with this year’s moderate level of spending, we’ve still witnessed some questionable contracts being handed out.
Not everyone judges free agents signings the same, so let’s define what risk means to me. In this article, the players categorized as risky likely come with the risk of injury. MLB pitchers are considered more volatile than position players, and two of the four biggest contracts went to relievers this year. Consider that your fair warning: There are relievers on this list. This should come as no surprise, though, considering relievers often have inconsistent results on a year-to-year basis. After all, a full season for a reliever is 70 innings, about one-third that of a starting pitcher.
On a very basic level, this list is the result of comparing the size of the contracts signed to the expected production of these players. The variables I will base this on are past production, health and position changes. Although the biggest contract typically comes with the most risk, Yoenis Cespedes‘ four-year, $110M contract will not be on this list. When you have a 135 wRC+ with 66 home runs, a cannon of an arm and 9.9 fWAR in the past two seasons, you deserve $27.5M a year. In addition, limiting him to a corner outfield spot maximizes his value defensively. In my meaningless opinion, the Mets did good with the Cespedes signing. Before we dive right in, let’s a look at a coupe players that narrowly missed this list.