Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke’s Spring Should Be a Cause for Pause

It’s no secret that Zack Greinke was a $206.5 million disaster for the Diamondbacks in 2016. With his slow start this spring, is he headed for another down year?

Up until last season, Zack Greinke was regarded as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. That rang true, especially from 2013-2015, when he pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He he had a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 602.2 innings of work. He was a definite top-10 pitcher and a strong argument for top-five could have been made, especially after his 2015 season. It was a career year where he had a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. It was one of the all-time best seasons ever and what landed him the mega-deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

These are the reasons why the 4.37 ERA and 1.27 WHIP he put up in 2016 were huge disappointments. He looked like a complete waste of money. He struggled with performance and injury; not exactly pleasant for a 33-year-old. To make matters worse, it seems as if he lost some velocity this spring as well. In an exhibition game against Mexico, he was topping out at 89.5 mph. He allowed six hits in 2.2 innings. From the 12 batted balls he allowed, the fastest pitch was 89.3 mph and four of those 12 had exit velocities of over 100 mph.

Definitely not ideal. It is only normal for a pitcher to start to lose velocity once he gets further away from the age of 30, but combining it with how much it has dropped, the money he is getting paid, and his importance to the team, it is even worse.

The one thing he has going for him is that he has never really relied on velocity to be successful in the past. He threw hard early in his career but by the time he got to the Dodgers, his velocity was down. His strength was built around his ability to control and mix four pitches very well and outsmart the batter. This would lead to keeping the batter off-balance and limiting seriously damaging contact. With this in mind, can he recover and bounce back to become the ace that the Arizona Diamondbacks want him to become?

Personally I do not think so, and it starts (but doesn’t end) with his velocity. He was ineffective last season, so how would possibly losing velocity help his chances? I understand that it is just the spring and he may be building his body back into shape. Even if that was the case, he is behind where he was this time last year. I do expect him to lose velocity this season but my doubt goes beyond that.

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His walk rate increased from 2015 to 2016. He had 41 walks in 158.2 innings last season compared to 40 in 222.2 IP in 2015. His HR/9 more than doubled and was the third highest in his career (1.3). Greinke’s rate of fly balls and line drives increased while ground balls decreased. His hard contact rate increased by almost 4 percent and was the second highest of his career. On top of this all, his FIP of 4.12 did not prove he was getting unlucky either. A possible drop in velocity definitely won’t help him with these problems.

Now think of his age and the injuries he battled last season. He had a DL stint during the season and battled a shoulder injury toward the end. It will be tough to truly overcome injury at his age. As a 33-year-old pitcher, he won’t be getting any stronger or more durable.

He isn’t throwing to Yasmani Grandal anymore either. Grandal is regarded as one of the better defensive catchers in the game and one of the best pitch-framers. The change from Grandal to Welington Castillo was a huge one because Castillo isn’t exactly good at pitch-framing. Castillo may be gone, but problems on the defense still exist. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ defense is also one of the worst and that isn’t going to be drastically changing for the better anytime soon. Throw in the fact that Chase Field is known to be a hitter-friendly park and it doesn’t get any better for him.

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So Zack Greinke is definitely in a bind. He has pressure, both internally and externally, to deal with. There are also the factors listed above working against him. It is easier to deal with just one of the factors, but when having to face all of them at the age of 33? Good luck: The decline is real.