New York Yankees: Aroldis Chapman and the Hall of Fame

Aroldis Chapman reportedly has his sights set on the Hall of Fame, but is this a reasonable or attainable goal for the Yankees closer?

New York Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman told the New York Post this week that he has some lofty aspirations for the rest of his career. Speaking through an interpreter, Chapman said: “Hopefully in the future I can get to the Hall of Fame.”

Chapman, 29, signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees this offseason. He started 2016 with the Yankees and was traded to the Cubs in July, but seems to have found a home in the Bronx. There’s no doubt that Chapman is one of the most exciting pitchers to watch in the game today, lighting up radar guns like nobody in the sport’s history. But does he have a path to the Hall of Fame?

Let’s get one thing out of the way: If you believe in the character clause, Chapman is already at a huge disadvantage. Players with strong character do not get suspended for 30 games for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy. Given his checkered history, it’s hard to be a fan of Aroldis Chapman the person. For now, though, let’s just consider the case for Aroldis Chapman the pitcher.

There are only five relief pitchers currently in the Hall of Fame: Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers. Eckersley was a starting pitcher for half of his career, and a very good one at that, making two All-Star teams, receiving Cy Young votes twice and MVP votes once. With more than 3,000 innings pitched, Eck is not a traditional case for a relief pitcher.

Wilhelm, Gossage and Fingers were relievers for a much longer duration than Eckersley, and they represent a bygone era where relief pitchers would often go multiple innings. Sutter… well, Sutter pitched for only 12 years and wasn’t even a positive contributor for all of them. He’s one of the weakest Hall of Famers, and if Sutter is the benchmark by which relief pitchers should be judged, there would probably be several dozen deserving players knocking down the door to Cooperstown. We’ll ignore him for now.

In order to consider Chapman appropriately, we need to look at more modern players: closers who specialized in one-inning appearances. Trevor Hoffman is on the brink of enshrinement, having received 74 percent of the vote this year. He’ll likely get in next year. Mariano Rivera is a lock to receive the necessary 75 percent of the vote on his first ballot.

I firmly believe that the best relief pitchers do not affect baseball games as much as the best starting pitchers do. Relievers pitch one-quarter to one-third the innings that starters do. They aren’t out there enough to have as much of an impact. They may be in at the end of the game when it’s close, but as often as not they may be facing weaker batters at the bottom of the order.

The save is a silly statistic. Hoffman was a very good pitcher, with an ERA+ of 141, suggesting that he was about 41 percent better than average. Billy Wagner pitched a couple seasons fewer than Hoffman and was superior in almost every single category, notably recording an ERA+ of 187 and striking out batters at a significantly higher rate. But Hoffman recorded 601 saves to Wagner’s 422 (still sixth most all-time). Wagner has barely reached double-digit percentages in his years on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Hoffman pitched fewer than 1,100 innings, or about five seasons for a starting pitcher. That simply is not enough of an impact to be worthy of the Hall of Fame without being among the absolute best ever in the sport. That doesn’t describe Hoffman, despite his lofty save total, so Hoffman should be much closer to Wagner’s 10 percent than his current 75 percent.

I like to compare relievers to Sandy Koufax. Why Koufax, who only appeared in 83 games out of the bullpen in his 12-year career? Koufax’s career was cut short by injury and is really in the Hall of Fame based on his six-season peak from 1961-66. In that time he recorded a 2.19 ERA (156 ERA+) across 1,632.2 innings, striking out 1,713 while putting up a 129-47 record. That’s an outstanding peak during which he won three Cy Youngs and an MVP while tossing four no-hitters, including a perfect game.

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If Koufax can get in on that peak, that should be the baseline for relief pitchers: an incredible career across limited innings. Again, Hoffman comes nowhere close. Rivera, on the other hand, compares quite favorably.

Rivera pitched 1,283.2 innings in his 19-year career. He recorded a 2.21 ERA, but in an era of much improved offense, that was good for a mind-boggling 205 ERA+. Rivera was literally more than twice as good as the league average. What really sets him apart, though, is his postseason success. In 16 years of postseason appearances, Rivera routinely went multiple innings, putting up an astonishing 0.70 ERA over 141 innings pitched.

The line for Hall of Fame enshrinement doesn’t need to be Mariano Rivera. Replicating his success is borderline impossible, especially for the postseason. But the line needs to be higher than Hoffman.

Chapman has a 2.08 ERA across 377 innings pitched, good for a 192 ERA+. That’s excellent, but he has a long ways to go. He needs to pitch another 10 years at or near this level for me to consider him a Hall of Famer, even with all the strikeouts and flash. More importantly, he has to be better in the postseason. A 3.10 postseason ERA isn’t terrible, but it’s not Hall of Fame worthy.

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Rivera’s legacy is as the greatest relief pitcher ever, and now that Chapman is a Yankee for the foreseeable future, that’s where the comparisons will lie. As long as the lasting postseason image we have of Chapman is that of speedy little Rajai Davis going yard on the game’s biggest stage (Game 7 of the World Series), Chapman will fall short of immortality.

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