Chicago Cubs Offense Hurts Wade Davis Fantasy Baseball Value
By Tim Boyle
Chicago Cubs closer Wade Davis should have a fine season statistically. However, fantasy baseball owners may see fewer save opportunities because of how great the Cub offense is.
The Chicago Cubs went out and did something bold this offseason. Following the departure of mercenary closer Aroldis Chapman, the Cubs made a trade with the Kansas City Royals for closer Wade Davis.
In the real world, there’s no arguing with the move. The Cubs only gave up Jorge Soler to snatch up one of the best closers in baseball. Soler’s future in Chicago didn’t look too promising and they had enough outfielders already, so trading one away was a sacrifice they needed to make.
When it comes to fantasy baseball, those with Davis on their roster could experience a little more frustration. Even if he does pitch well, the Cubs might have too great of a roster to provide the number of save opportunities he received while in Kansas City.
Chicago was able to get through the first part of last year with Hector Rondon as the closer. He pitched well, but did not see regular save opportunities for a guy on the league’s best team. Rondon was very reliable in the closer role, but accumulated only 18 saves in 38 appearances prior to Chapman’s arrival in late July.
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Davis’ experience could be similar. Between the Cubs’ offense and their stellar starting pitching, the run differential could turn into an astronomical total. This would mean more blowouts for the Cubs. The end result is fewer saves for Davis.
Fantasy baseball owners should not fret completely. Davis will still have his chances and appear regularly. Of all the positions to select, closers tend to be the hardest. There are too many other factors to consider. An average closer on a bad team may have just as many fantasy points as a terrific one on a great team. This happens because of how many more opportunities he has to rack up saves in closer games. When selecting relief pitchers, saves are the most important statistic of all.
Last season, Cubs relievers had 38 total saves for the season. This was only one more than Alex Colome, Jeanmar Gomez, and David Robertson had on the year by themselves. Those three all pitched for really bad teams, but received plenty of save opportunities due to the close games their teams were in.
In addition to the Cubs not providing Davis with those opportunities, one may wonder if he can even handle a full year as the closer. As a converted starter, innings should not be a problem if he stays healthy. Davis does not have the extensive experience as the ninth-inning man as he only became a closer full-time in the second half of 2015. In total, he has just 47 career saves: the same number Zach Britton, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon had in 2016.
One can even argue Davis is far more effective in the setup role. His ERA, hits per nine, and other numbers all worsened last season. It’s no coincidence that it happened after moving to the closer role full-time.
Davis should still have a fine year and give the Cubs everything they want. However, some fantasy owners may have different thoughts when the saves just aren’t there.