St. Louis Cardinals: Will They Regret Molina Extension?
The St. Louis Cardinals locked up star catcher Yadier Molina for three more years with a $60 million extension. Was it a wise move, or will they end up regretting it?
Over the past ten years, the Cardinals have been synonymous with winning. And at the center of it all is Yadier Molina. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2000 draft by St. Louis. Molina debuted in the big leagues in 2004 at the age of 21. He has been a mainstay in the lineup ever since, making over 100 starts every year since.
Yadi has earned a reputation as one of the premier defenders behind the plate in his thirteen big league seasons. He is a fan favorite, and one of those players that you want to see finish with the same team that drafted him. So when the team announced Sunday that they reached an agreement to keep him in town through 2020, it wasn’t a huge surprise. However, it is far from a home run of a deal.
The main issue with an extension for Molina is his age. He turns 35 this July, an age at which most catchers are usually deteriorating quickly. However, Molina is no ordinary catcher. He has still provided solid value after his age-30 season, and his presence in the clubhouse is incredibly valuable.
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Through all of this, Yadier Molina is already quietly declining. After posting three straight 4+ WAR seasons from 2011-2013 (per Fangraphs), he has failed to reach 3 WAR in any of the three seasons since. Molina’s defense is still well above average, but has gotten worse each season since 2012. Counting on Molina through 2017 is perfectly reasonable, but to expect his play from ages 35-37 to be worth $60 million is a reach.
The catching position is not deep at all in today’s game, so if the Cardinals extended Molina for lack of a replacement, it would make sense. However, they have the game’s number one catching prospect (per MLB Pipeline), Carson Kelly. 22-year-old Kelly was taken in the second round of the 2012 Draft as a third baseman.
He has since converted to catcher, and the conversion has been incredibly successful. He hit .292/.352/.381 in 113 AAA at bats last season, and is expected to be big league ready this season. It would seem to make sense to give Kelly the reigns behind the plate Opening Day 2018 and let Molina find employment elsewhere, but the Cardinals opted for the known commodity.
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The Cardinals made the safe play by extending fan favorite Yadier Molina, but the move could end up hurting them. It will be tough to pay a deteriorating catcher $20 million in the season where he turns 38, but you have to give St. Louis credit for their loyalty to Molina. This extension puts top prospect Carson Kelly in a tough spot, but the Cardinals front office will find a way to get value out of him. Molina’s extension will most likely end up being a regret in St. Louis, but only time will tell.