Is the 300-game Winner Actually Dead? Five Pitchers with a Chance at 300

C.C. Sabathia won the 225th game of his career on Saturday. While this is an impressive total (he trails only 44-year-old Bartolo Colon in terms of career wins among active pitchers), there was a time not too long ago that many pundits thought Sabathia was MLB’s best chance for another 300-game winner.

Sabathia broke into the league as a 20-year-old, winning 17 games in his rookie MLB season. Sabathia then proceeded to win double-digit games in each of his first 13 seasons, and by the time he was 33, he had over 200 wins (205, to be exact). Sabathia had more wins through his age-33 season than Steve Carlton (final tally 329), Roger Clemens (final tally 354), and Nolan Ryan (final tally 324). Of course Sabathia has slowed down in recent seasons, and reaching 300 wins now seems a relative long shot for the big lefty.

So is the 300-game winner dead? Are we doomed to start celebrating 250 as we once celebrated 300?

Starting pitchers are certainly throwing fewer and fewer innings, as well as making fewer starts per season. Just look at this chart of innings pitched leaders through the history of baseball, thanks to Michael Bein and his Graphical History of Baseball website:

(Graph courtesy of Michael Bein)

Ignoring the two strike-shortened seasons, that’s pretty much a perfect decline since the 1970s, with the most recent seasons being the lowest non-strike seasons we have.

Due to this trend, many have written off the 300-game winner as a dying breed, an achievement that may as well be relegated to the extinct portion of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown along with the .400 hitter and the sacrifice bunt. (Ok, we’re not quite there with the sac bunt just yet, but we’re getting close.)

However, a modern path to 300 wins may not be as hard as one might imagine. For proof, just look at our most recent 300-game winner.

Randy Johnson made his MLB debut at the rather late age of 25. He won just 10 combined games in his first two seasons, meaning by the age of 27 he needed 290 more wins to get to 300. Now Johnson was unique in that he was able to pitch until the age of 46, but he certainly provides the blueprint for a more unique path to 300. With pitchers keeping in better shape than ever before, pitching until the age of 46 doesn’t seem as wild as it used to, either.

So with all that said, who are the most likely candidates to reach 300 career wins in the next 20 years? Here are some candidates.