Washington Nationals: Gio Gonzalez on Early Path to Rebound Season
By Tim Haberin
Gio Gonzalez has turned in four impressive starts for the Washington Nationals so far in 2017. Can the veteran lefty maintain his success?
Five years ago, Gio Gonzalez won 21 games for the Washington Nationals. He was a deserving recipient of those victories, posting a 2.89 ERA and finishing third in that season’s NL Cy Young race. While the left-hander has enjoyed solid campaigns since then, his performance has gradually diminished, culminating in last year’s mediocre 4.57 ERA over 32 starts.
Through four stellar outings this season, Gonzalez is looking much more like that pitcher who flirted with some personal hardware in 2012. The southpaw boasts a 1.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 2.63 K/BB ratio in 26.2 innings of work. He’s allowed just four earned runs on 20 hits and eight walks while striking out 21.
Gonzalez’s early success continued against a familiar foe yesterday afternoon. He held the New York Mets to a single run and two hits over 6.1 frames. The Nationals won the game 3-1 for their sixth straight victory, opening up a three-game lead in the NL East. Gonzalez is used to mystifying the Mets: He owns a 12-5 record and 2.96 ERA against them in 21 starts.
In recent years, Gonzalez has become something of a forgotten man in the Nats’ rotation. Max Scherzer has been nothing short of dominant since joining the club in 2015 and took home his second Cy Young last season. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t always lived up to his billing, but he frequently flashes the talent that made him a number-one draft pick. Tanner Roark got in on the action last year as well, winning 16 games to the tune of a 2.83 ERA.
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It would be easy for Gonzalez to play the fourth or fifth fiddle on this staff, but he’s been making his case for a much more important role this month. The question is, can he sustain this level of performance?
His 3.29 FIP is markedly higher than his ERA, but certainly not a bad number in its own right. Interestingly enough, Gonzalez has typically come out on the opposite end of this struggle, as evidenced by his career 3.69 ERA and career 3.52 FIP. Expect some regression as the season continues, but perhaps not as much as you might think.
Gonzalez is holding opponents to a .243 BABIP thus far, which is below average but not extraordinarily so (see James Shields‘ .150 mark). In 2015 and 2016, he actually contended with BABIPs of .341 and .316, respectively. This year’s figure should rise, but if it stays significantly below the last two seasons’, it might not affect him too negatively.
He won’t keep pitching like this all year, but looking at Gonzalez’s peripheral stats, there doesn’t seem to be much reason to believe a total implosion is coming. He can still be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher for Washington, and that’s a highly valuable role for him to play on a team that already has a clear ace.
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At 31 years old, Gonzalez is by no means destined for the scrap pile just yet. He’s showing the early makings of a bounce-back season, and if that happens, it could be a major boost to the Nationals in their division and beyond.