Seattle Mariners: James Paxton is Ready to Break Out

James Paxton has gotten off to an extremely impressive start for the Seattle Mariners. With power stuff and a certified role, he’s ready to take the next step in 2017.

At 28 years old, James Paxton may be finally recognizing the potential that led the tall lefty to be a top pitching prospect with the Seattle Mariners as a minor leaguer.

Paxton made his major league debut in 2013 and produced solid results when he’s been on the mound. However, the main problem with the Mariners starting pitcher is that he has never started more than 20 games in a single season. In fact, he has only reached the 20 start milestone once, which came last season.

But while the injury concerns do still exist, the way that the Mariners starter has kicked off the 2017 season has been nothing short of phenomenal.

Paxton did not allow a run in his first three outings of the year, while also averaging over a strikeout per inning. The walk was also not a problem as Paxton allowed only four free passes in his first 21 innings.

He did come back to earth in his most recent start, but he flashed so much in his first three outings that I’m willing to overlook last Thursday’s game as just a blip in the road. Despite his recent effort, Paxton’s ERA still sits at an impressive 1.78 with great peripheral numbers to boot.

Perhaps the most important number to keep an eye on his his walk rate. As of now, the potential Mariners ace is continuing to keep his stuff under control after making a serious improvement from 3.9 BB/9 IP in 2015 to 1.8 BB/9 IP in 2016. He’s also doing this while continuing to rack up the swings and misses (10.7 K/9 IP) because of his dominant stuff.

According to FanGraphs, Paxton is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball that can reach the triple digits when he wants it to. He’s mixing in his curveball a little more in 2017 as well, using the pitch about 21 percent of the time as opposed to his 13 percent usage rate in 2016.

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In addition, his hard contact rate has dropped by five percent. I know it’s only been about a month into the season, but it’s still something to keep an eye on as Paxton’s 2017 campaign progresses.

Paxton also strongly passes the eye test. His long, lengthy delivery is deceptive and hitters have trouble catching up to his heat high in the zone. He also utilizes a curveball that is able to keep hitters off balance because of the ridiculous 15 mph speed difference between the offerings. Paxton has seemed to simplify his pitching arsenal relying on a fastball-curveball combo, while occasionally mixing in a changeup and a cutter. Keeping his gameplan simple will allow Paxton to harness his stuff to its full ability and not allow him to outthink himself on the bump.

But really, results have not been that big of an issue for Paxton. In fact, he’s never finished a year with an ERA of over 3.90. His average ERA actually sits directly at 3.30, which I would say makes him a pretty dominant starting pitcher.

The question is whether his overall length and some of the unusualness in his delivery is going to put him on the disabled list in some way once again. While the Mariners should keep an eye out for their number two hurler, Paxton has shown an ability to maintain his stuff late into games and not wear down in the early parts of this year, which is no doubt a positive sign.

Personally, I’ve always been a big believer in Paxton’s raw arm talent and I’m happy to see him having this much success in April. Still, the key for Paxton is not to prove himself against major league caliber hitters, he’s already done that. The goal needs to be to show the Mariners and the baseball world that he can maintain on the mound and reach that 30 start benchmark.

If he does this, there is little doubt that his arm talent and dominate arsenal can vault him up the starting pitching ranks by the completion of game 162 of this season. I’m thinking that this could be the year he figures it all out.

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What do you think of Paxton’s early dominance with the Mariners? Let us know in the comment section n below.