Red Light, Green Light: Which Teams Are Stealing More in 2017?
Overall, MLB players are stealing bases at the same pace as the last few years, but some teams have seen big differences in their steal attempts per game.
In Major League Baseball, home runs get the headlines. We’ve seen the home run surge that began in the middle of the 2015 MLB season continue into the first month of 2017, with balls still flying out of the park at a rate not seen since the high-offense era of 15-20 years ago. But what about the counterpart to home runs, the stolen base? Are there any interesting trends we can identify after the first month of the 2017 season?
I compared stolen base totals from April of 2017 to the stolen base numbers over the last few years. Since 2013, there have been roughly 1.5 steal attempts per game between both teams and teams have been successful about 72% of the time. The 2017 season is right in line with those numbers. There were 1.5 steal attempts per game in April, with a success rate of 72%.
That’s true for the entire league, but individual teams are showing some significant difference in stolen base attempt rate. The Seattle Mariners, for example, have flipped the light to green. They attempted almost twice as many steals per game in April of 2017 as they did in April of 2016. On the other hand, the Colorado Rockies have put on the brakes. After attempting 22 steals in 24 games last April, the Rockies attempted just eight steals in 26 games this year.
So, which teams are running more this year? And which teams have corralled their baserunners? Here’s a look at some team stolen base trends so far this season.
Born to Run–The Three teams that have increased their stolen base attempts per game the most.
Seattle Mariners—92% increase in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 25 G, 13 SBA, 6 SB, 7 CS, 46%
April, 2017: 26 G, 26 SBA, 21 SB, 5 CS, 81%
Last April, the Mariners ranked 24th in steal attempts per game and 29th in stolen base success rate. Ketel Marte and Leonys Martin tied for the most steals by a Mariner player in April, each with just two. Nori Aoki had one, with three times caught stealing. The running game was not a big part of their offense and actually cost them runs because they were unsuccessful more often than not.
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This year, the Mariners have moved up to fifth in stolen base attempts per game and seventh in success rate. Offseason acquisition Jarrod Dyson has been a big part of the change in Seattle. He was 8-for-10 in steal attempts in April. Leonys Martin was second on the team in steals, with four of his five attempts being successful. Jean Segura played in just 14 of the team’s 26 games, which limited him to three steals.
The way this team has been built, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the steal attempts continue. Martin is down in Triple-A, but Dyson and Segura will continue to run and Mitch Haniger can also steal a base when he comes off the Disabled List.
Milwaukee Brewers—78% increase in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 25 G, 18 SBA, 13 SB, 5 CS, 72%
April, 2017: 26 G, 31 SBA, 25 SB, 6 CS 81%
The main driver in the increase in steal attempts for the Brewers is Keon Broxton. He may not be hitting well (.194/.275/.319 currently), but he did attempt eight steals in April, leading the team. In 2016, he had just two steal attempts in April. Jonathan Villar ran just as much this April as last April and Ryan Braun has a couple more attempts, but Broxton is the real difference here.
Arizona Diamondbacks—66% increase in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 22 G, 23 SBA, 18 SB, 5 CS, 78%
April, 2017: 27 G, 40 SBA, 32 SB, 8 CS, 80%
The Diamondbacks ran more than any other team in April this year and it wasn’t particularly close. They had 40 steal attempts, with the Rangers and Brewers coming in tied for second with 31 attempts. The return to health of A.J. Pollock has been key. He missed almost all of the first five months of last season because of an injury, but has come back strong this April with 10 steals in 12 attempts. Paul Goldschmidt has also upped his running game. Last year, he was 1-for-2 in steal attempts in April. This year, he was 7-for-7.
Stop (In the Name of Love)–The Three teams that have decreased their stolen base attempts per game the most.
Colorado Rockies—66% decrease in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 24 G, 22 SBA, 14 SB, 8 CS, 64%
April, 2017: 26 G, 8 SBA, 4 SB, 4 CS, 50%
More than any other team, the Rockies have stopped running. They dropped from ninth in steals attempts per game in April of 2016 to dead last this April. Sabermetrically, it makes sense to avoid making outs on the bases when you play in a great hitter’s park like Coors Field. Also, the Rockies weren’t successful enough last season (63%) for their steal attempts to be beneficial.
Last April, Gerardo Parra led the team with five steals in seven attempts. DJ LeMahieu was second, with four steals in five attempts. This year, Parra did not have a steal in April (he was 0-for-1 on the basepaths) and LeMahieu had just one steal in one attempt. The guy who stole 43 bases in 2015, Charlie Blackmon, dropped to 17 steals last season and had just one in April of this season (in three attempts).
Houston Astros—40% decrease in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 23 G, 28 SBA, 19 SB, 9 CS, 68%
April, 2017: 25 G, 21 SBA, 12 SB, 9 CS, 57%
The Astros have gone from leading the league in steal attempts per game to 14th in the league. Jose Altuve was 9-for-10 in April of last year and is 7-for-8 this year, so his pace is slightly off. Carlos Correa went from four steals in five attempts to no attempts in April of this year. Another guy who ran more often last April is George Springer, who had five steal attempts last April. Unfortunately for the Astros, Springer was successful just one of those times. This year, he was 0-for-2 in April. Going back to the beginning of last year, Springer is 9-for-21 in steal attempts. He should probably just stop running altogether.
Oakland Athletics—33% decrease in stolen base attempts per game
April, 2016: 25 G, 20 SBA, 15 SB, 5 CS, 75%
April, 2017: 25 G, 12 SBA, 8 SB, 4 CS, 67%
Where have you gone, Billy Burns? Burns had eight of the Athletics’ 20 stolen base attempts last April. He was 7-for-8 on the bases, while hitting .278/.321/.367 in his first 20 games. From that point forward, he hit .220/.253/.272, which made it difficult to steal bases. You can’t steal a base when you rarely get on. Burns was traded to Kansas City in July. Coco Crisp had four steals in six attempts last April, the second most steals and attempts on the team.
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Without Burns or Crisp, the A’s have dropped from 14th in steal attempts per game to 25th. Marcus Semien is the only player with more than one successful steal and he’s been on the DL since mid-April with a hand injury. Even the great Rajai Davis had just one steal in three attempts.