Reeling Chicago Cubs need this Cardinals series to go their way
As the Cubs officially begin their June play, the need to beat divisional opponents will only increase. The Cubs need to come out on top of this weekend series with the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Chicago Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They just got swept in a six-game West Coast road trip with stops in Los Angeles and San Diego. Today they open up a three-game set at home against the rival St. Louis Cardinals, and the Cubs need this series to break in their favor in the worst possible way.
Over this weekend the Cubs have a chance to climb to second place in the division, or even tie for the lead. They could also wind up six games back of the lead, or just five games behind the Cardinals as June begins.
This isn’t make-or-break, not yet. This isn’t time for Cubs fans to panic, just yet. Both of those things, however, are lurking just around an unfortunate bend.
LINEUP OUTLOOK
No roster moves have been made, which means the Cubs team which got swept by the Padres in San Diego is completely intact, for better or worse.
Kyle Schwarber is bad, and now only hitting against right-handed pitchers. Thankfully, manager Joe Maddon has seen the light: Schwarber will be batting seventh in the order today. Schwarber may very well start every game of the series, as the Cardinals don’t have a left-handed starter to put on the mound.
Javier Baez and Addison Russell are both struggling mightily, and as such Joe Maddon has been tinkering with lineup construction, seeming hesitant to play Baez and Russell in the same lineup.
Young upstart Ian Happ, who burst onto the scene in mid-May with a series of terrific offensive performances, has cooled as of late. Happ now sports an OPS nearly .500 points lower than what he had amassed as recently as May 23. Happ will be leading off in Friday afternoon’s series-opener.
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PITCHING OUTLOOK
The rotation will turn over after Friday’s start by John Lackey, who will oppose Cardinals starter Lance Lynn. This Cubs lineup may be able to feast on Lynn after struggling on the road: The Cardinals hurler has an inflated 4.73 Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP). That figure is at odds with his sterling 2.93 ERA and 1.063 WHIP through 58 innings, an indicator that Lynn is walking too many batters and being bailed out by his defense. Patience will rule the day.
Lackey, on the other hand, is struggling to stay relevant at 38 years old after a solid season of work in 2016. He’s given up 10 runs in his last two starts, not having made it out of the fifth inning since a start in mid-May. Facing a Cardinals lineup without Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk, as well as slumping Dexter Fowler and Aledmys Diaz, may be just the “get-right” game Lackey needs.
Through the rest of the weekend, things get harder on the Cubs when they will face de facto Cardinals ace Mike Leake, who is currently sporting an ERA+ of 184, highest of any starter on the Cardinals roster, and for that matter, the Cubs roster as well. He will oppose Jon Lester on Saturday.
Closing out the weekend will be Kyle Hendricks, who despite a 4.22 FIP still allows the fewest bases per inning (1.163 WHIP) of any Cubs starter. Hendricks will oppose Michael Wacha, who has seen his defense falter behind him a bit with a 1.329 WHIP despite a solid 3.50 FIP.
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It is important to remember the Cubs cannot lose the division this weekend. That would be an unfortunate overreaction to the current landscape in the NL Central. However, a series against a divisional opponent ahead in the standings, at home, is a series a repeating World Series champion team would likely win.