Yankees’ Aaron Judge risking historic season with Home Run Derby

The Home Run Derby is notorious for ruining swings and derailing seasons. Yankees rookie Aaron Judge looks to be an outlier.

On January 28, 1901 — two years before the inaugural World Series — the American League was founded. The initial season featured a 136-game regular season and eight teams. A total of 228 home runs were hit and Boston led all teams with 37.

One hundred and six years later, the game has evolved and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge could accomplish something no player has done before: lead two or more Triple Crown categories as a rookie.

Over the course of history, five rookies have led the AL in either batting average, home runs or RBI.

In 2001, Ichiro Suzuki joined Seattle and won the batting championship after nine years of Nippon Professional Baseball.

In 1915, Braggo Roth sat atop the leaderboard with seven home runs during his time with Chicago and Cleveland. Seven decades later, Oakland’s Mark McGwire set the rookie record with a whopping 49 round-trippers.

For RBI, two Boston Red Sox rookies made history. Hall of Famer Ted Williams drove in 145 RBI in 1939 — 19 more than runner-up Joe DiMaggio. In 1950, Walt Dropo, a teammate of Williams, followed his predecessor by plating 144 RBI.

Judge has the potential to be atop any, if not all three categories come October 2. However, by participating in the Home Run Derby, Judge is jeopardizing his second-half production.

Since 2007, statistics show a decrease in performance after taking part in the power showcase.

In fact, 62.9 percent (51 of 81) of Home Run Derby participants fail to reach their first-half average following the competition. Furthermore, a 24.7 percent probability exists in one’s second-half average dropping over 50 percentage points, which in Judge’s case would obviously eradicate any hope of a batting title.

During the last 10 events, the mean effect of the Home Run Derby is a 17-point decrease in batting average. But, for Judge — a 25-year-old rookie — the risk of altering and temporarily ruining his swing is nearly imminent.

Out of the last 12 participants age 25 or younger, 10 have floundered following the All-Star break. The likes of Manny Machado, Andrew McCutchen, Kris Bryant and Corey Seager have all fallen victim to lackluster second halves. In fact, the mean plummet in average among the dozen is 28 percentage points.

With a detrimental impact on contact, power is also inferior post-Home Run Derby. By mathematically setting the number of games equal in the second half to the first, a true estimation and comparison can be generated on whether a player’s power has diminished.

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Accordingly, 69.1 percent of participants have had their power affected for the worse. Moreover, 30.2 percent of hitters who blasted 17 home runs or more before the All-Star break fail to break double-digits in the final two and a half months.

Arguably the largest stumble of the past decade was in 2008. Houston first baseman Lance Berkman enjoyed arguably the best first half of his career, blasting 22 home runs with a .347 average. Then, he partook in Monday night’s festivities and his season was derailed; he batted an anemic .259 with seven home runs during the second half.

The same could transpire to Judge’s line of a .331 batting average, 29 home runs and 65 RBI.

This season the Fresno State product’s success stems from an opponent’s inability to use a right-handed or left-handed pitcher for minimization. Judge is batting over .327 from both sides of the plate while spraying hits, including home runs, to all fields.

But a minuscule, involuntary alteration in his swing, thanks to the Home Run Derby, could change everything. Judge struggled against righties in the minor leagues — he possessed a .241 mark against RHP in 2015 — and was 1-for-15 (.067) against MLB lefties last year.

Statistics aside, no one knows for certain whether Judge will make history and become the first rookie to lead two of the three major statistical categories. Or, better yet, if the California native can become the first rookie and second player since 1967 to win the batting Triple Crown.

After all, Judge’s season is special. But there is no question the Bronx Bomber is playing with fire by competing in the Home Run Derby.

Next: Tanaka a bright spot amid Yanks' slump

Note: Troy Tulowitzki‘s Home Run Derby participation in 2014 has been purposefully neglected due to a season-ending injury which limited him to just two second-half games.