If Porcello can be had for a reliever, there are 29 GMs who need to pick up the phone right now. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest shock to the system was to see that Detroit actually offered to deal Porcello to the Padres in exchange for a premium reliever, in this case Huston Street or Luke Gregerson. I get that Detroit’s very biggest area of weakness is most certainly its questionable bullpen, but the price of relief pitching should never reach such heights when it’s so volatile and unpredictable. Then again, maybe a lot of that has to do with just how undervalued Porcello’s skill set and Major League accomplishments are at this point in time.

Porcello won’t even turn 25 until December of this year, and by that time he will have already completed five full seasons at the highest level of professional baseball. That’s almost unheard of, and that sort of experience at such a young age is typically only associated with superstars. Porcello didn’t develop into a superstar, but he has shown that he happened to come out of the gate as a highly polished starter with some positive attributes. While he isn’t an ace, he’s about as good of a back-end starter as you’re likely to find, and unlike many back-end starters, he isn’t just filler. There is still room for improvement here.

Porcello has proven himself durable. While he hasn’t ever logged 200 innings, he’s made between 27 and 31 starts in every season of his young career. He’s also quite gifted when it comes to throwing strikes, as his career walk rate is a mere 2.3 per nine innings. Porcello has also been worth between 2.0 and 2.9 WAR in every season on his resume, and both his FIP and xFIP actually sunk below 4.00 in 2012 as his strikeout rate improved ever so slightly. These are all positive attributes, and when concerning a pitcher only 24 years of age, they point toward potentially greater things down the road.

On top of the minor statistical improvements, Porcello flashed a fastball that averaged nearly two MPH more than it did in 2011 last season. His pitches are bound to get sharper as he gets older, and his ground ball approach would definitely play better for a team whose infield didn’t consist of slow, awkward sluggers who clearly lie about their weigh on their ESPN player profiles.

But let’s say Porcello never gets better and this is what he is. Even if that happens to be the case (which I don’t believe it is), he carries far more value than just about any reliever could ever provide in limited innings. Porcello takes the mound every fifth day, turns in solid but unspectacular work, and doesn’t kill himself with free passes. He’s the sort of pitcher that might wind up the recipient of an expensive three-year deal by a club desperate for pitching, so why should he only warrant a reliever in return? And that’s not even what other teams are offering, that’s what Detroit is asking! Baseball has come a long way in understanding what’s valuable and what’s not so valuable, but there’s still plenty of road left to be traveled.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Robinson Cano may be headed elsewhere as the Yankees scramble for answers. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s always difficult to pinpoint when a team’s reign of dominance or even proficiency has begun or reached an end, but it seems like the vaunted New York Yankees have finally morphed into something they’re simply not used to being: a mediocre baseball team. It may seem like a fool’s errand to dismiss a team coming off a 95-win season that featured baseball’s most powerful offense, and that’s especially true when that team often seems to have unlimited resources. The Yankees, however, have been teetering on the edge of implosion for a while now. I’m willing to say they’ve slipped over the edge.

There are a lot of factors that go into the certainly temporary collapse of baseball’s most prolific franchise, but the biggest tipping point has surely been the team’s roster construction. Long one of the oldest teams in the game, the Yankees have simply become far too brittle for their own good. Long contracts aren’t typically a good idea, and the ones the Yankees are tied up in look increasingly terrifying. Alex Rodriguez can’t dodge PED allegations, can’t stay healthy, and can’t produce at a high rate when he’s on the field. Mark Teixeira will miss at least a month to start the 2013 season. Even CC Sabathia finally hit the DL and exhibited some health issues last summer.

Even the guys who didn’t sign deals for a decade or close to one come with their fair share of complications. Curtis Granderson has transformed into almost solely a home run threat, as low batting averages and declining defense are putting a severe dent in his value. A walk rate north of 10% is great, but it means a lot less when its owner can’t hit .240 and his contact rate is continually slipping. Even Robinson Cano, great as he is, will be gone after this season unless the team learns its lesson and shies away from a deal that will retain him well past his prime.

It’s not just that powerful offense that’s the problem, though. Outside of the dynamic bullpen, the Yankees have a rotation full of question marks behind Sabathia. Hiroki Kuroda had a fantastic 2012, but age and injury risk loom large. Phil Hughes has developed into a solid four starter, but this is a team that needs more. Perhaps even scarier, the Yankees can’t buy their way out of this one. The team is all set to cut payroll at a time when Granderson and Cano will hit free agency and there simply isn’t much in the way of young impact players on the roster. The problems are piling up, and when combined with the ascent of every other non-Sox team in the AL East, this a dangerous time for the Yankees.

What’s GM Brian Cashman doing to address his roster problems in the present? Well, it seems like he’s tapped into the well of desperation by contacting just about every aging or retired veteran in hopes of retaining their services. Chipper Jones laughed off the idea, Derrek Lee isn’t taking the bait, and Scott Rolen is–well, who knows? I’d imagine there was a time not all that long ago when an offer from Cashman would have been much more appealing.

It’s a perfect storm for the Yankees, and that’s pretty much what it takes for a franchise like this one to experience a lapse in quality teams. The Yankees have gotten old, sluggish, and unbalanced. The money isn’t going to be there like it has been, and the game has shifted toward something far different than it was when the team began its current run of success. Teams are winning now with young, cost-controlled talented brought up the pipeline and merely complimenting their own achievements with free agents. Sure, the Yankees have had their share of success stories in developing players (Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada come to mind), but they also haven’t had to worry about those players being bought away in free agency. Times, they are a-changin’.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

The Rays are still a solid baseball team, but now may have been the time to go for it. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Given what Tampa has been able to accomplish, it wasn’t all that surprising to see the team jettison starting pitcher James Shields to Kansas City to replenish a farm system that has taken a hit over the past couple of seasons. Adding guys like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi not only beefs up the prospect crop, but it also gives the team a chance to promote a couple of potential impact players in the relative short term. The trade was a typical and genius Rays move: deal an expensive player getting ready to hit free agency and pick up young talent.

Still, if there was ever a season the Rays might have been wise to hold off in making such a move, it’s probably this one. The Rays still have plenty of talent on the roster and figure to be in the mix, but they’re also dealing with a reduced version of the AL East for the first time in their existence. Both financially stacked squads, the Yankees and the Red Sox, are uncharacteristically down and out, something we haven’t been able to say in a very long time.

Sure, the Yankees have enough fire power to stay near the top of the division. Their roster is aging quickly, Alex Rodriguez‘s future is very much in question, and no big moves were made to shore up the nagging problems we saw in last fall’s playoffs. The Red Sox look even worse. After jumping ship on a number of bloated contracts in the blockbuster that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and others to the Dodgers, the Sox were left with a team that finished the 2012 season with just 69 wins. Ownership then appeared to push for another layer of veterans to protect against another cellar-dwelling performance, but names like Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, and Mike Napoli don’t figure to equal an AL East crown in 2013.

The Orioles had a surprise ascent to postseason baseball last season, but there isn’t much of a reason to project them to finish near the win total they managed a year ago. Only the Blue Jays, who have negotiated blockbusters of their own to revamp a team that already had talent around the edges, have actually improved their chances at winning a division that previously seemed so distinctly unwinnable.

The Rays sold high on Shields to protect their future, but this may have been the rare instance when the team really just had to push for the present. It’s hard to say the trade that brought in Myers and Odorizzi was anything less than a masterstroke, but the timing wasn’t necessarily ideal. The Rays can certainly contend in 2013, but retaining Shields and bringing in some additional offense could have pushed Tampa Bay to the top of the pack with much less to worry about than usual.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Justin Morneau will need to regain his old form to stick around in Minnesota. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

With every free agent not named Kyle Lohse pretty much settled in with his new team, transaction attention has shifted toward contract extensions for players and teams wanting to avoid free agency after the 2013 season. One player who has found himself in the news wires over the past week or so is Twins first baseman Justin Morneau. Morneau has been very open about wanting to remain in Minnesota, the team he has spent his entire career with. But should the retooling Twins even consider keeping him around?

Morneau was a top prospect in the Twins organization after being selected in the third round of the 1999 amateur draft. He took home the 2006 American League MVP and was on track for a banner career before various injuries (notably a severe concussion) derailed him, and he hasn’t ever been the same hitter since. Up through the point in 2010 at which Morneau suffered his injury, he was having a career season. The first baseman was hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 homers in 348 PA, and he was showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, Morneau was a career .286/.358/.511 hitter up to that point, and it really looked as if his approach would enable even better performance.

Unfortunately, Morneau suffered a head injury in 2010, and ever since his bat has gone missing. Morneau managed only a .618 OPS in 288 PA in 2011, but things did improve a bit in 2012. Morneau hit .267/.333/.440 with 19 homers in a mostly full season, showing that some of the tools that briefly made him a star were still there. But does Morneau’s previous success and slight rejuvenation give the Twins cause to celebrate?

Morneau did get a bit better past the All-Star break last season, so he appears to be steadily (albeit slowly) gaining momentum toward once again becoming a quality hitter. The big difference after the break last season for Morneau was simply a few singles; his power numbers stayed steady and his walk rate didn’t spike. Morneau may have logged a .793 OPS in the second half to better the .752 OPS he put up in the first half, but there isn’t much evidence to suggest there was a real reason for it.

I know Morneau has discussed extensions publicly when asked about it by the media, but a deal just doesn’t seem likely to get done. The Canadian ex-slugger endeared himself to Twins fans just as Joe Mauer did, but things just haven’t worked out favorably. Now 31 years old, it looks like Morneau will be moving elsewhere once the 2013 season is completed, and no one can really be blamed for that.

The only thing that could turn this ship around now would be a vintage Morneau campaign right when he needs it most, and I think that’s something we’d all like to see. The guy has been through enough, and a monstrous season may be the only way he has a shot at staying with the team that drafted him. Otherwise the Twins and Morneau will likely have to part ways after the season, and if that happens, I think we’ll all still be rooting for him to have a better future.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Meet the new face of…the Helena Hyenas!

Kyle Lohse Never Signs Anywhere, Starts His Own Team

We’re less than two weeks away from the beginning of March and starting pitcher Kyle Lohse somehow still remains a free agent. There hasn’t really even been a serious bite on Lohse’s services, or if there has been we haven’t been made aware of it. The only other logical path is for Lohse to branch out on his own and start his very own Major League Baseball club. Aware of Montana’s untapped baseball reservoir, the best free agent still left on the market will found the sure-to-be competitive Helena Hyenas. The Hyenas will occupy the NL Extra-West, a division they will surely win despite having one player because, well, they’ll be the only team in the division.

 Everyone on ESPN’s “Baseball Tonight” Picks the Orioles to Win the AL East

Because you simply can’t ever go wrong riding the hot wave of luck and using the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately rationale of prognostication, every single on-air personality from ESPN’s “Baseball Tonight” is totally going to pick the Orioles to win the AL East. Don’t bother looking at Baltimore’s roster or noticing that there are a couple of teams with significantly better chances going forward; this is all about “gut feelings,” “cloud readings,” and “cases of the smilies.” “Baseball Tonight” is taking the O’s to win it all, and you can’t stop them!

 Giancarlo Stanton is Finally Told This Has All Been a Reality TV Show

Months after his Marlins seemed to have given up on being a professional baseball team in favor of scrapping everything at starting over at square one again, remaining Miami star Giancarlo Stanton is at last going to find out that none of this has been real. After all, how could it be? A couple weeks into spring training, right around the time Stanton realizes the Marlins are actually trying out a third baseman that looks suspiciously like his area grocery store’s elderly door greeter, reporters will break the news that HBO’s upcoming reality show “How Much Can You Take Without Needing Clinical Help?” has been behind every action the Marlins have taken over the past year. Surprise!

Ryan Braun Caves and Tells the Whole Truth

We’ve been wrong about Ryan Braun for a long, long time. Never one suspected as a performance enhancing drug user, a positive test sent Braun’s career into a whirlwind that hasn’t ever really calmed down. Braun is now linked to one in a seemingly-endless line of PED-pedaling clinics, and now he’s finally going to tell us all the truth. Technically he never lied to anyone, as he never used PEDs in the first place. Braun’s well-hidden secret has all along been his status as a half-human, half-cyborg baseball hitting device created by Bud Selig over two decades ago in an attempt to keep his beloved Brewers relevant. It’s going to be tough to believe, but just remember how bad his third base defense was. The bugs hadn’t all been worked out yet. Robots!

Former Major Leaguer Derek Bell Reiterates Just How Successful “Operation Shutdown” Has Truly Been

After blanching at the news that the Pittsburgh Pirates may not start him in 2002, outfielder Derek Bell quickly announced that he was retaliating with “Operation Shutdown,” a plan that Bell has successfully deployed for over a decade now. Just in case the general public forgot about Bell, who is now 44, he’ll be sure to give us a press release in a few weeks just to make sure we realize how flawless “Operation Shutdown” has truly been. For those interested, Bell and some colleagues will be attending a special 11th anniversary gala to commemorate “Operation Shutdown” a week before opening day. Raffle winners will be allowed to touch his goatee and reminisce about that awesome year Bell had in 1998.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

James Shields is good, but that doesn’t mean the Royals are ready to win right away. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals made their move by dealing top prospect Wil Myers and other minor league hopefuls to the Rays to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis. Shields certainly boosts the solidity of the starting rotation and gives the Royals an ace, and the team is clearly also hoping new acquisition Ervin Santana can return to his previous form and help them have their next successful squad. The methodology, in a way, makes sense because the AL Central has always been winnable. If you’re going to go for it and ditch your rebuilding process, it makes sense to do so when you feel your division or a wild card spot is up for grabs.

The problem is that the Royals aren’t good enough to try something so bold, at least not yet. Even with Shields in the fold and a Santana comeback, there are too many gaping holes and question marks littering the roster. Young future stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven’t actually enjoyed serious Major League success yet, and it’s unclear what their careers will hold. The Royals don’t have enough talented, MLB-ready players on board to give up on rebuilding just yet.

Another issue with going the direction the Royals finally did is that the Tigers are a legitimate threat in the American League. Detroit represented the AL in the World Series last fall, and all of the principal players are returning for another run. With Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder all in the their prime, the Tigers aren’t going away anytime soon and remain a dangerous team the Royals will not be able to unseat unless a series of improbable miracles begin to unfold. The wild card spots are going to be tough to get as well; both the AL West and East have multiple contenders with rosters far more stacked than what Kansas City has to offer.

I completely understand the Royals wanting to give their fans something to cheer about and change up the long-standing losing culture in Kansas City. Everyone has waited more than long enough, and everyone is ready for the Royals to recapture their glory from George Brett‘s heyday. Giving up on rebuilding at this precise moment, with Hosmer and Moustakas still unknown quantities and several stronger contenders present, just wasn’t a good idea. In the long run I would think Kansas City fans would rather wait a couple more seasons for a legitimate contender than sacrifice a future star and other key pieces for the right to win 79 games instead of 74.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Will Michael Bourn be wearing a Mets jersey later this month? Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

On the surface, Bourn absolutely makes sense for the Mets as he does for a lot of teams. Bourn plays a premium defensive position, and he plays it just about as well as anyone. A quick trip to FanGraphs reveals that Bourn has been rated positively in center in every season of his career but one (2011), and in two out of the last three seasons he’s been considered phenomenal. Sure, UZR data can be misleading, but when a sample size this large exists and points to continued excellence, there’s reason to be a believer.

Bourn would also give the Mets a boost at the top of the lineup thanks to his consistently above-average plate patience. There are plenty of debates to be had on what makes a lead-off hitter effective, but the simplest evaluation is to judge whether or not a player can get on base in front of everyone else in the lineup. Bourn isn’t ever going to lead the league in OBP or anything, but he’s posted on-base marks between .341 and .354 in each of the last four seasons. That’s better than a lot of other teams are getting from the lead-off spot, and it isn’t a batting average fluke despite Bourn’s speed. His walk rates have exceeded 9% in all but two seasons, and he put up a career best 10% rate last year.

Maybe Bourn has been a bit undervalued by his potential employers. For some reason it seems that players who actually possess old-timey skills like defensive prowess, lead-off ability, and speed get overlooked when it comes to big contracts. Bourn isn’t a run producer of any sort, but he has still tallied over 4 fWAR in each of the last four seasons, and his 6.4 WAR mark last season was a career best at age 29. Bourn has proven himself thoroughly after a rocky beginning to his career, but it seems he’s still low on suitors during a period that could easily result in his first enormous payday.

There’s a distinct chance teams are worried about a swift decline, and they wouldn’t be remiss in doing so. Players like Bourn who have so much value tied up in their speed can experience quite the fall-off as their physical attributes fail them increasingly with age; if Bourn’s legs become less potent soon, his defensive range and basepath mastery would begin to suffer immensely. Unlike many other players his age, Bourn can’t fall back on his value at the plate; what he does offensively is largely a bonus beyond drawing a few walks.

The Mets have reason to be cautious when approaching a deal with Bourn, but he could still be a good fit. Bourn is a very good player still in his peak years, and given that 2012 was his best season yet, he isn’t likely to decline any time soon. With the market cool on Bourn for the time being, perhaps the Mets can grab him for a shorter contract length than they would have previously feared necessary. Even though the Mets know they won’t compete this season, they need good players to build around, and Bourn could be extremely pivotal in making the Mets a better team when their recent prospect haul from Toronto is ready to make the step up. There are reasons to worry about Michael Bourn, but there are also reasons to think the Mets are wise to be the leading candidate for his considerable services.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Adrian Gonzalez is one of many Dodgers whose best years may be in the rearview mirror. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Well, there isn’t a strong argument to say the Dodgers aren’t the best team in a so-so division such as the NL West. That said, there also isn’t evidence that the older of the two Los Angeles teams is going to be able to run away with the division and take the postseason by storm. There is a lot to like about the Dodgers, but there are also plenty of reasons for trepidation, and it’s those reasons that serve to keep my expectations at bay.

One of the more troubling problems that plagues the Dodgers won’t be nearly as big an issue until future seasons, but the majority of the players that have been acquired are at advanced ages, make a ton of money, and may have already left their best years behind them. Adrian Gonzalez has refrained from drawing any walks or taking his previous approach at the plate for a couple of seasons now, Carl Crawford has been injured so long it’s hard to know what kind of player he’ll be, and Josh Beckett is wholly inconsistent. Then there’s Hanley Ramirez, whose game fell from MVP-level to something solid but decidedly less impressive in 2011 and hasn’t really recovered yet.

There are also still plenty of holes on the Dodger roster that haven’t been stuffed with cash. The rotation looks incredible with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the top, but the bullpen may not be an upper echelon unit even after general manager Ned Colletti overpaid just about every reliever he could find on the free agent market. Meanwhile, it’s hard to be convinced that the lineup will actually be one of baseball’s best. With Gonzalez, Crawford, and Ramirez all question marks to some degree, a lot of the work falls on the shoulders of the recently injury-prone star Matt Kemp. And what about the middle infield? Hell, what about the entire infield? It’s a weak unit by any metrics you want to use.

Maybe the most valid argument against the Dodgers as clear-cut favorites to win the 2013 NL West is also the simplest one: the roster isn’t markedly better than the competition. The reigning World Series champion Giants have plenty of holes as well, but it’s not abundantly clear that those holes are any more detrimental than the ones that are littered across the Dodgers’ roster. Sure, the Giants have to be worried about the starting rotation given Madison Bumgarner‘s late season collapse and Tim Lincecum‘s sudden descent into mediocrity. The lineup is still short on legitimate punch, too, but the Giants remain as intriguing a challenger for the NL West as their more celebrated rivals.

The Dodgers really have improved even if that improvement has come at the cost of millions upon millions of dollars and the devastation of a farm system, but they’re still going to have to fight to earn a playoff spot. There are plenty of other hungry teams vying for both the NL West and the myriad of Wild Card spots that now exist, so only time will tell if this recent L.A. spending spree pays off as handsomely as everyone in the organization hopes.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Just a couple of Hall of Famers busy not getting to be in the Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

I suspect a large portion of the problem lies in the hands of the bitter, PED-obsessed voting crew Major League Baseball entrusts its historic annals with. Instead of getting to witness several players some of us admired and owned baseball cards of in our youthful years take their rightful places among the game’s greats, we’re getting exactly zero new members of the baseball Hall this year. Zero! I’m just as much for strict entrance guidelines as the next guy, but this most recent ballot was absolutely loaded with deserving candidates.

As I alluded to briefly above, it really seems as if MLB’s Hall voters are out of touch with the game today. If there is so much as a whispered rumor by a drunk fan in front of a urinal trough that a player used steroids, you’d better believe that player will never pass muster with the voters once his career has ended. For a group that seems bothered and daunted by the prospect of learning a stat that wasn’t in newspapers a half-century ago, it seems curious that such rapt attention is devoted to sports-related tabloid rumors.

Oh, and if rumor mongering isn’t enough to convince you that something has to change, what about those delightful writers who take it upon themselves to hop up on their imaginary thrones and vote for no one each and every season out of some sort of ill-conceived respect to the original Hall of Fame classes? Can you even imagine being that terrible at your job and getting to keep it? No research is done, no numbers are crunched, and no brain activity is necessary. These writers and alleged historians scoff at every fan out there who believes a baseball player has had a right to greatness beyond the prohibition era.

Seriously, some of these omissions are just shocking. Craig Biggio had an incredible career and stands among the best at his position in the history of the sport, and yet he didn’t get through Cooperstown’s gates. Biggio doesn’t have a speck of dirt on him, but not even his clean bill of media health even seemed to matter when it came time for ballot punching. I’m in the crowd perfectly willing to let the jaw-dropping work of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens stand for itself, but at least those taking a stance against known steroid users are, well, taking a stance at all. Keeping out players like Biggio and voting more heavily for the mediocre stylings of Jack Morris is just embarrassing.

I grew up as a baseball fan in the 90′s, and I can’t help it that I want to see the stars of my generation get something resembling fair treatment. I’m not going to waste any time getting on my “disregard PEDs” soapbox (not for now, anyway), but I am going to demand better of Major League Baseball when it comes to honoring its legends. It wholly seems that the sport is getting further away from justice when it comes to cementing its legacy, and witch hunts don’t make fans choke up quite like seeing a hometown hero take the podium five years after a storied career. Let’s do something different so that recent, current, and future generations of fans and players get what they want and what they deserve. If Ken Griffey, Jr. isn’t getting a plaque made in a few years, all hell’s going to break loose. I didn’t save this 1995 Wheaties box for nothing.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

There really aren’t many players more valuable than Chase Headley.

I was perusing MLB Trade Rumors in search of Headley news when I noticed that the lovely Tim Dierkes projected Headley to get something like a four-year, $40-50 million extension with the Padres. It was at this point that I realized Chase Headley is one of the few players in baseball who has a legitimate chance to wind up underpaid relative to talent level. It’s certainly very rare, but it can absolutely happen in today’s game, and Headley has just the right skill set to cost himself money.

Headley’s obviously a very talented player who has been rumored to be on the verge of a true break out for years now, but his big year didn’t come until last season at age 28. Still right in the prime years of his career, Headley has a solid chance to build on the new level of production he’s established for himself. Perhaps part of the problem is that a concern exists that Headley will revert back to the player he was before the start of the 2012 season. Thing is, that’s not a problem when it comes to making a long-term commitment to the guy.

Sure, ideally Headley would pile on dominant season after dominant season going forward, but he’s still plenty valuable even if he doesn’t. He’s a truly unique player in that he has a skill set that should really be appreciated by almost any kind of fan but somehow isn’t anyway. Headley caught the attention of baseball fans in large part because of his 2012 power numbers, which were much more substantial than what any of us are used to seeing. Headley’s raw athletic ability and patient approach at the plate suggest he may have more big power seasons in him, and Petco is finally moving its fences in. Even if Headley only clears the wall a dozen times a season from here on out, though, he remains an asset thanks to his glove, solid base running, and sophisticated work at the plate.

FanGraphs’ UZR has consistently lauded Headley’s work at the hot corner, and scouts have done very little but concur that he can handle the position very well. Headley is also typically a smart base runner who makes very few mistakes, and his walk rates have only been escalating more and more as his career progresses. Third base simply isn’t the power hitter position it once was, and a player like Headley who deftly handles the position while ensuring a high OBP and virtually mistake-free fundamental play is very valuable.

Over the last three seasons, Headley has been worth 15.1 WAR according to FanGraphs, a very impressive total that translates to over $60 million of production through the site’s valuation system. That’s pretty incredible, but unless Utley logs eyebrow-raising baseball card numbers again, he may be doomed to be forever underrated or enter the minds of fans as a one hit wonder.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.