Could David Price be on the move this winter. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

For nearly half a decade, the Tampa Bay Rays have brought relevant baseball to the state of Florida and have been a serious player in the American League East. Since dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays have won 90 games four times, made three postseason appearances, won two division titles, and represented the American League in the World Series once, losing to Philalphia in 2008.

Yet, despite all of that success, Andrew Freidman and company have begun each of the past five seasons handicapped. A perennially low payroll requires them to let talented players leave when they become overpriced and then fill those slots with young, inexpensive rookies or with low cost/high reward veterans. So far, it has been a poker game that Freidman and his team have managed beautifully, making an endless stream of what always seems to be the right choice.

The 2013 offseason may represent Freidman’s biggest gamble yet.

Quality drafting and player development have left the Rays with an overloaded pitching staff, giving them plethora of pitching options in which to trade from. Names like James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and David Price have been brandied about already this winter, with names like top prospect Chris Archer and Jeff Niemann ready to step in to any open slots. The trick is figuring out which is the best one or two are truly expendable, both giving the Rays a solid return that will help the 2013 ball club and also leave them with a quality rotation for next season.

James Shields

It seems like it is almost a yearly affair for Shields to have his name mentioned in trade talks. That happens when you are set to become garner the highest single-season contract in franchise history in 2013, even if it is a modest $9 million. Franchises like Tampa struggle to dedicate such a large amount to any one single player. However, that $9 million, as well as the $12 million he is slated to earn in 2014, also makes Shields attractive to potential suitors, as it is a relative bargain to most franchises. Shields has given the Rays 31 or more starts in each of the last six seasons, 200 plus innings, and outside of 2009 and 2010, an ERA below 4.00.

That’s solid number two material for most teams out there. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, Shields would be an excellent buffer if Clayton Kershaw is not ready to go at the beginning of the season and he also gives them an upgrade over a quickly receding Josh Beckett.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson has had an eventful couple of seasons in just his first two years in the majors. The 25-year-old right-hander won the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2011 and then followed that up with a Gold Glove in 2012. Despite that, Hellickson may be the second-most available pitcher for the Rays behind Shields. Despite a 10-11 record and a very solid 3.10 ERA in 2012, Hellickson averaged only 5-2/3 innings a start last season, and his 6.3 K/9 rate left him with an FIP of 4.60, suggesting that he was perhaps more lucky than good. Still, there is upside here and as he develops, he’ll learn to keep his pitch counts down and utilize his 41.8% ground ball rate to his advantage.

Hellickson is still not first-year arbitration-eligible until next offseason so he is drawing interest from an assortment of teams, with clubs like the Padres, Blue Jays, Twins, and Royals all having interest. However, it may be teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Diamondbacks who possess the right combination of prospects and players at the major league level to get a deal done.

David Price

It is shocking to even remotely hear that David Price may be made available this winter. However, this is the world the Rays live in. Price is a serious contender for the American League Cy Young award in 2012, after posting a 20-4 record, a league-leading 2.56 ERA, and a 5.1 fWAR. As such, Price is due a major raise through arbitration this winter when he is first year (super 2) eligible, hence the Rays motivation to possibly move either him or Shields. See a trend here?

There is no doubt that Price has lived up to his ace billing since the moment he stepped onto the mound for Tampa and teams will line up to secure his services. With the Mariners constantly denying that Felix Hernandez will be available, teams may suddenly have their consolation prize. There is no point in listing potential suitors, as any team with a major package of players to flip will be lining up at the door.

Three very worthy candidates for movement and three very worthy prizes considering a very weak pitching pool on the free agent market. Expect Freidman and the Rays to busy this winter, but I can guarantee you one thing.

None of these pitchers will be traded within the division.

September 17, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (2) reacts at a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

He is also a free agent after next season.

Speculation is that the Red Sox are not inclined to trade Ellsbury while his value is low, coming off of an injury-plagued season. However, there are a few factors that would make it more beneficial for Boston to move Ellsbury now.

Firstly, the free agent stigma is going to hang over his head. With Ellsbury being represented by Scott Boras, there is little inclination for Boras to have the Red Sox lock up Ellsbury long term. No, he wants to take all of his clients to the open market and Jacoby Ellsbury will be his cash cow next winter. The Red Sox would be better off trading Ellsbury for a piece that can help them now and in the future rather than playing the lottery with a draft selection that will take years to pan out.

Secondly, the new collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a player must be with his new team for a full season in order for that team to garner a draft pick as compensation should said player sign with another team. No more can a team acquire players simply for the purpose of building up their draft portfolio. That means Ellsbury’s highest value to another team, knowing that he could leave via free agency, is by acquiring him now. The acquiring team, likely a contender, gets a full year of Ellsbury, in a walk year nonetheless, and also stands to regain a draft selection should they lose him to free agency.

Thirdly, the Red Sox have the talent in the minor league, in Jackie Bradley, that is close to being ready to step into Ellsbury’s slot next season. The 22-year-old first round pick is well on his way toward a September call-up in 2013 and potentially a starting slot in 2014.

One rumored swap involving Ellsbury and the Red Sox has been a deal with the Texas Rangers for either Elvis Andrus or Derek Holland. The Rangers have been a rumored landing spot due to their need to replace Josh Hamilton in their line-up.

Yes, Boston needs pitching, but Holland is a middling talent at best and his home run tendencies would be exposed to a higher degree as a left-hander in Fenway Park.

That makes Andrus an obvious target. The is a proven quantity at the position who may suddenly become available in order to make room for top prospect Jurickson Profar. Andrus is a two-time All-Star with a .275 career average and an solid ability to get on base and score runs at the top of the order. Andrus is also under contract for two more seasons, at a very friendly rate.

Boston’s interest is a no-brainer. They lack a proven talent at shortstop, having traded Mike Aviles earlier this offseason. Furthermore, the lack of offensive development by prospect Jose Iglesias leaves many in the Boston organization with reservations on whether he will be able to hit major league pitching. Boston’s top prospect, Xander Bogaerts is himself likely a year away from the majors, but will likely necessitate a position shift at the highest level.

To make a deal work, the Red Sox would likely have to sweeten the pot a bit, tossing in a pitching prospect of some regard to help hedge against Ellsbury leaving Texas. Jon Daniels was very fond of the deal Cherington made with the Dodgers last season and could look at one of those pieces as a another piece of the return.

Still, there is ground to be worked here and this is definitely something the two teams could come together on.

October 2, 2012; St. Louis, MO. USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (54) throws to a St. Louis Cardinals batter during the ninth inning at Busch Stadium. The Reds won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

All pitchers are born pitchers.
-Joe DiMaggio

Of course, when DiMaggio uttered those words, pitchers were a completely different breed. They took the ball and they would not let it go unless you pried it from their cold, dead fingers. Today’s pitchers are in fact born that way (I’m not going to get into a conversation about creation or anything like that), but now they are born into specific roles.

And Aroldis Chapman is a born reliever.

The 24-year-old Cuban flamethrower was a bonafide Cy Young award candidate in the National League in 2012. Chapman’s season was absolutely filthy for the Reds, making 68 appearances with a 1.51 ERA, 1.55 FIP, and 122 strike-outs (15.32) in 71.2 innings pitched. Only Craig Kimbrel of the Braves was more devastating out of the bullpen in 2012 and was the only man in baseball to post a lower FIP (0.78) and higher K/9 (16.66) to Chapman’s respective statistics in those categories.

So why are the Reds looking at possibly moving Chapman to the starting rotation?

It comes down to greed. The Reds are hoping are weighing if Chapman’s dominance is worth more to them over the course of 175 to 200 innings a season, but only once every five days, or 65-70 innings a season but in high leverage situations.

The true gauge on any such experiment will be whether Chapman can remain effective while having to dial back his fastball and utilizing his other pitches. His average velocity with the fastball last season was 98.1 MPH according to FanGraphs, while he dialed it back with a slider that averaged 87.5 MPH and a change-up that sat at 93.1 MPH.

The problem there was Chapman relied on his fastball an astounding 80% of the time, throwing his slider just 14.3% and his change-up 5.7 %. As a starter, he’d need to rely on his other pitches in order to keep batters honest, especially if he cannot sit in the triple-digits with his fastball for 6 innings an outing. And it is tough to rely on a change-up that is still a 93 MPH pitch and only gets a swinging-strike 11% of the time it is thrown. As a starter, Chapman is going to look awful enticing to hitters once the fourth or fifth inning hits.

There are other factors to consider here as well. Chapman experienced shoulder fatigue late in the season in 2012, so adding to his workload in 2013 seems counter-productive. There is also the recent example of Boston trying to convert their own flame-throwing reliever, Daniel Bard, into a starter, only to watch his control completely dissipate and batters teeing off on his reduced velocity.

No, Aroldis Chapman belongs in the bullpen, being the rock at the end of the game for the Reds. Nevermind the chances of bringing back Ryan Madson or Jonathan Broxton as possibly replacements and moving Chapman into a role where he will be nearly meaningless at least four days a week.

That is, unless you enjoy watching Dusty Baker breaking pitchers.

July 16, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Chicago White Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis (20) waves to the crowd during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

All and all, that resulted is a disappointing season that saw Youkilis hit a career low .235 with 19 home runs, 60 RBI, and a .745 OPS.

By declining their option on Youkilis, the White Sox are allowing him to explore free agency. While the White Sox will maintain tabs on the 34-year-old Youkilis, there is another team that could likewise do that same.

The Boston Red Sox.

Now, Boston jettisoned Youkilis because of both the rise of Will Middlebrooks, who will most definitely be the starting third baseman for the Red Sox when camp breaks at the end of March, and due to his mercurial relationship with Bobby Valentine, who himself was sacked at the end of the season. However, things have changed a bit in Boston since Youk was voted off the island.

For one, Bobby Valentine is gone, which was more than justified by his struggles to work with his players. Secondly, the team traded Adrian Gonzalez, along with Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Carl Crawford to Los Angeles, opening up a spot at first base in 2013.

It just so happens that Youkilis was a Gold Glove (for what its been proven worth) first baseman with the Red Sox in 2007, prior to making the shift back over to third base to make room for Gonzalez. Is it absolutely out of the question to envision the Red Sox bringing back Youkilis on a club-friendly deal and sticking him at first base, either as a starter or in a platoon? Not at all. The option of Youkilis at first base is tremendously more appealing to the bringing back James Loney or any of the other available free agents.

Youkilis was a .287 career hitter for Boston prior to 2012, so one would have to envision that he is capable of a rebound season. Putting him in a position that would be less stressful on his back and knees would surely aid in that. Even if Youkilis was only able to approximate his 2011 season, where he put together a slash line of .258/.373/.833, that would be more than serviceable for the coming season.

Regardless of his relationship with Valentine, Youk was also a fan favorite with a reputation of being a gutty player who left it all out on the field. Any contract with Youkilis would still be at a reasonable enough rate that it would not prevent the club from making other moves or deterring from the rebuilding path they are currently on.

There will be some naysayers who believe Youkilis’s role as one of the malcontents on the team should prevent him from being a part of the immediate future of the club. However, in a season ruled by malcontents, both in the line-up and in the coach’s office, it is tough to saddle him for life with that label.

This team has made much poorer decisions than this.

Sep 28, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton (32) watches a replay after striking out during the eighth inning of the ame against the Los Angeles Angels at Rangers Ballpark. The Angels beat the Rangers 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

Or as we like to call it around these parts; The Hot Stove Season.

Of the free agents expected to hit the market in the coming hours or days, none of them will garner as much debate as Texas Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton.

The pure dearth of hitters available is one reason why the Dodgers were willing to stomach the August deal with the Red Sox that brought them Adrian Gonzalez. That said, there is no doubt that Hamilton will be the preeminent slugger on the market this winter. He is a five-time All-Star, former American League MVP who has hit 25 or more home runs in four of the last five seasons and driven in 90 or more during the same span. He is also coming off of a season where he hit .285 with 43 home runs, 128 RBI, and a .930 OPS.

That said, Hamilton will likely command a deal worth at least six seasons and north of $20 million per year. There are only two questions that remain:

1.) Is Hamilton worth that lofty contract?

2.) What team is willing to take the risk?

Based on performance alone, Hamilton is a stellar player. During his MVP season in 2010, he was worth 8.4 wins above replacement. However, that number dropped to 3.5 and 3.4 in the last two seasons respectively. The fall off is mostly due to the fact that Hamilton has fought through nagging injuries in each of the last two season, which have sapped his ability to stay on the field (121 games in 2011 and 148 games in 2012) and made him more of a defensive liability. In fact, Hamilton has played in more than 150 games just once in his career, during the 2008 season, his first in Texas.

It is those injuries which will have the greatest impact on Hamilton’s suitors. At 31-years-old, he is likely looking for his last long-term contract, but as his body continues to break down, it makes it more difficult to give him a contract that he may not be able to live up to fully. That becomes more of an issue if he is relegated to being a designated hitter during the latter end of said deal, where his market becomes significantly more limited.

Another determining factor could be his sudden rise in strike-outs. Prior to 2012, Hamilton’s previous career high was 126, set in 2008. Hamilton’s 2012 total of 162 dwarfed that number.

Still, there are teams with money to spend that will look at Hamilton as a significant upgrade. Outside of Hamilton possibly returning to the Rangers, other possible suitors will still likely pop up.

The Baltimore Orioles are one of those teams. Orioles left fielders were abyssmal in 2012, putting together a combined OPS of .694. Hamilton would give the Orioles another impact bat around Adam Jones. Sure, Chris Davis was a solid addition for the Orioles, but Baltimore would be smart to hedge their bets against a regression in 2013. Peter Angelos has been known to love veterans and after last season’s success, he could want to add that piece that pushes the Orioles further.

The Toronto Blue Jays would be an interesting club to chase Hamilton, as Alex Anthopoulos is getting pushed to field a winner and is being given extra funds to do so. However, the team needs pitching about all else and adding Hamilton may reduce their ability to add an impact arm to the rotation. Toronto will likely pass and hope that Jose Bautista returns strongly from wrist surgery.

Another team with similar issues to those of the Orioles are the Miami Marlins. Only the Cleveland Indians finished with a lower OPS from their left fielders than the Marlins. Likewise, the Marlins showed last offseason that they are willing to spend in order to prove to the fan base that they are bent on contending. Sure, the 2012 Marlins were eventually torn back down, but Loria may make another run in 2013, this time putting Hamilton into the line-up in the spot he hoped to have Albert Pujols last winter. Think of a line-up where you have Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Hamilton back-to-back and tell me that does not frighten you.

Regardless of where he lands, Hamilton will be one of the big horses to watch this winter. And we will be watching, with great interest.

Oct 21, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro (19) hits a two-run double against the St. Louis Cardinals in the second inning during game six of the 2012 NLCS at AT

Is there anyone out there that in any way doubts that notion?

Scutaro went out and proved that point for me, first during the stretch run of the regular season and then again in the National League Championship series, earning the NLCS Most Valuable Player award along the way.

In just 61 games with the San Francisco Giants, Scutaro revitalized his season, and the Giants’ for that matter, by registering a .859 OPS, a OPS+ of 145, scoring 40 runs, driving in 44 of his own, and accruing a WAR of 2.1 (baseball-reference). His performance to close out the regular season replaced nearly every benefit lost when Melky Cabrera was suspended.

However, while his performance down the stretch helped galvanize the Giants, it was Scutaro’s rise during the postseason that has vaulted him to the pantheon of playoff heroes. In fact, Scutaro’s batting line during the NLCS against St. Louis reminds one of another second baseman that took it to the Cardinals during a 7-game series. Let’s compare the two:

Marco Scutaro – 2012

Mark Lemke – 1996

The comparison is uncanny when you think about it.

Forget the fact that both players victimized the St. Louis Cardinals for a moment or that they both did so in a 7-game series. In 1996, it seemed like Lemke was on base after nearly every at-bat, something I’m pretty sure Mike Matheny can say similarly about Marco Scutaro, with both men posting On-Base Percentages well above .500 in their respective series. Both men were nearly impossible to strike-out, with Scutaro only being K’d once in 2012 and Lemke twice in 1996. Both men accumulated 17 total bases in a 7-game series. The only major item that separates the two is the fact that Scutaro took home the NLCS MVP for his troubles, while Lemke’s performance ended up playing second fiddle to a monumental series by Javy Lopez.

Oh, and both men stand just 5 foot 10 inches tall. Like I said, uncanny.

Of course, Lemke’s Braves lost the 1996 World Series to the New York Yankees. When the 2012 World Series begins on Wednesday night, Scutaro’s Giants will have a similarly difficult assignment in the Detroit Tigers.

Marco Scutaro is hoping that this is one place he can separate himself from the former Brave, not wanting to follow the “Lemmer” down that path.

Jon Lester should be one of those who most benefit from the return of John Farrell. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

Can John Farrell fix Jon Lester?

There is a reason that Boston was so adamant about bringing Farrell back to Fenway Park and it certainly was not because of his stellar job he did in Toronto. No, the key point on Farrell’s resume is the three years he spent under Terry Francona as the Red Sox pitching coach, holding the role from 2007 through 2010.

And there should be no one more excited about the addition than Red Sox “ace” Jon Lester.

“I think it’s a good thing,’’ Lester said. “He helped mold me into the pitcher I am, the player I am. My work ethic, the work I do between starts, he really helped mold all of that.?

Lester undoubtedly enjoyed his most success under the tutelage of John Farrell. From 2007-2010, Lester was 50-23, with 6 complete games, 2 shut-outs, 1 no-hitter, 602 strike-outs, and a 1.235 WHIP. In the two years since Farrell’s departure, it has been a completely different story, punctuated by a horrendous 2012 campaign that saw his ERA rise by nearly a run and a half, his strike-out rates fall for the third consecutive season, and the lefty failed to post a winning record for the first time as a full-time starter.

But Farrell’s influence should bode well beyond just Lester. Clay Buchholz, John Lackey (who returns from Tommy John surgery in the spring), and lefty Felix Doubront could all benefit from working with Farrell.

The key will be the staff that Farrell builds around him. Bobby Valentine’s struggles as the manager in 2012 were exasperated by the fact that he did not fully trust his coaching staff and the players themselves were unable to get comfortable with them. Being able to build a strong rapport with the pitching staff is key to getting this group back on track.

It will be a long road for Farrell and the Red Sox to ride out, and it would be unfair for the team and its fans to expect an instant turnaround. Still, Boston did not pursue Farrell to have him sit back and watch things develop around him. They picked him up because of his familiarity with the club and they are hoping that helps trigger some immediate results, namely with the pitching staff.

Jon Lester is the key to that staff and to the Red Sox returning to some form of competitiveness. Another season like 2012 will not benefit anyone and will ultimately get the skeptics in Boston beating their drums again.

Oct 16, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano (middle) reacts after striking out in the 7th inning during game three of the 2012 ALCS against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Now, do not get me wrong, I prescribe to the same notions as any other Red Sox fan. I love to see the Yankees lose. However, I love to see the Yankees lose when they are at their best, when they leave it all out there on the field and the other team is just that much better.

Gift basket jokes aside, I take no pride in watching Derek Jeter, the heart and soul of the Yankees crumbling in pain and being lost for the postseason. Equally so, I want to see Alex Rodriguez failing at the plate instead of using bat boys as his wing men.

That is what makes Cano’s performance in the 2012 postseason all the more disappointing.

Robinson Cano is the single most dangerous hitter in the Yankee line-up at any time, especially in light of the Jeter injury and the A-Rod disappointment. When he is not performing, the Yankees are no longer at their best. They are simply a team running through the motions.

Cano is not a .083 hitter, as he has been throughout the 2012 playoffs.
This is a man much more capable than his 3 hits in 36 at-bats have shown. This is a man who hit .318 with 2 home runs, 9 runs batted in, and a 1.057 OPS against these same Detroit Tigers in the 2011 American League Division Series.

However, perhaps the writing was already on the wall for Cano’s performance against Detroit. The Tigers did do a masterful job in 2012 of keeping Cano under control, holding him to just a .653 OPS in 10 games. More importantly, he was held to just 2 extra-base hits by Tigers pitching, which means that Jim Leyland and his coaches at least figured out a way to contain him even if they could not fully stop him.

All told, the Yankees find themselves in an unfamiliar position, down 0-3 and seemingly powerless to change that. This is a team that looks defeated.

To change that, New York is going to have to ride on the back of C.C. Sabathia, but to make sure that effort is not wasted, they will need Cano to lead the offensive charge, breaking the entire team out of a slump. Either that or Cano will spend an entire winter second-guessing himself and working hard to be in a different position in 2013.

I think he prefers to start the transition tonight.

October 5, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (4) grounds out to score a run against the Atlanta Braves during the fourth inning of the 2012 National League wild card playoff game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

And in 2012, the departure of Pujols via free agency to the Los Angeles Angels forced St. Louis is find another source of make opponents fear them.

The Cardinals still had Matt Holliday to fall back on. They hoped that a full season of David Freese would be a part of that puzzle and added Carlos Beltran to the mix in an attempt to replace some of that. All three men performed admirably in that regard, each becoming All-Stars at their respective positions. Holliday would hit .295 with 27 home runs and 102 RBI, Freese would contribute a .293 average, 20 home runs, and 79 RBI, and Beltran would earn his keep with a .269 avergae, a team-high 32 home runs, and 97 RBI. Even Allen Craig stepped up and added 22 dingers an 92 RBI of his own.

All told, their performances helped to also cover the loss of first baseman Lance Berkman, who managed just 32 games in 2012 and is now likely headed toward retirement. This team was by far not wanting for additional offense. Still, none of these men picked up the mantle of leadership that Pujols had left vacant.

That fell to catcher Yadier Molina.

Himself a four-time All-Star, Molina had pretty much been regarded as a defensive wonder prior to 2011. During the Cardinals’ title run last season, the best of the catching Molina brothers, made it known that he could carry a meaningful stick as well. In 2011, he carved out his first .300 season as a hitter, .305 to be exact, and also achieved career-highs in home runs (14), RBI (65), OPS (.814), and WAR (4.7-FanGraphs), all while continuing to play Gold Glove caliber defense.

So naturally, at age 30 and with nearly 1000 games logged behind the plate, Molina would become the true spiritual leader of this club in 2012.

Molina stepped forward even further this past season, reestablishing all of his career highs set just the year prior. Home runs (22), RBI (76), Average (.315), OPS (.874), and WAR (6.5). His fire and leadership with both the pitching staff and now on the offensive side have more than adequately replaced what Pujols brought to the table.

Now, with the Cardinals making another improbable run to the World Series, St. Louis will again be looking for an October hero and a voice to follow. Molina has struggled thus far in the postseason, but the Cardinals know that at a time when they need him most, the resilient warrior behind the plate will step up with the big hit or the big play they need to turn the tide, and the team knows it. This is a team built around the strength of character they have on the field and in the clubhouse and there is no greater example of that than Molina.

In a town where the previous hero refused to be called “The Man”, Yadier Molina is stepping up to be the man.

Kirk Gibson and the Diamondbacks are hoping things are looking up a bit more in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Arizona would be eliminated in the National League Divisional Series by the Milwaukee Brewers, but the season would be labeled a success, with Gibson winning National League Manager of the year award and Ian Kennedy would tie for the league-lead in victories at 21, good enough for a fourth-place finish in the National League Cy Young voting. That level of success early on for the young Diamondbacks created an aura of high expectations for 2012.

You did not have to be psychic that they were set up for failure.

The 2012 Diamondbacks would pick up right where the 2011 edition left off, with the team winning its first four games of the season. However, Arizona would only put together four more winning streaks of 4 or more games throughout the remainder of the season, struggling to keep themselves at a .500, where they finished at 81-81 and 13 games behind the Giants in the NL West.

A lot of things actually went well for the D-Backs in 2012. Offensively, Arizona was a solid ball club, finishing 7th in Major League Baseball in runs scored in 2012. Offseason acquisition Jason Kubel fit right into the line-up, putting his part-time DH roll behind him and hitting 30 home runs and driving in 90 as the primary left fielder for the Diamondbacks. Second-year first baseman Paul Goldschmidt showed glimpses of promise in what was a streaky season, hitting .286 with 20 home runs and 82 RBI of his own. Catcher Miguel Montero also showed that he was worth the 5-year, $60 million extension he signed in May, logging a .829 OPS with 15 home runs and 88 RBI while playing 141 games behind the plate. Even Justin Upton, who general manager Kevin Towers dangled out there as trade bait during the season his a solid .280 with 17 home runs, 67 RBI, and 107 RBI despite reverting a bit from his 2011 form.

But for all of the good put together by that group, the true hero of the 2012 Diamondbacks was second baseman Aaron Hill. Acquired midway through 2011 in a deal with the Blue Jays that sent Kelly Johnson to Toronto, the Diamondbacks saw enough in Hill to bring him back, signing him to a two-year contract. Hill rewarded Arizona for their faith with a huge offensive season, netting a .302 average, .882 OPS, 26 home runs, 85 RBI, and a 4.6 WAR (Baseball-Reference). Oh, and he threw in two cycles in a matter of two weeks time, becoming just the second player to do it twice in the same season.

But for most .500 teams in baseball, there is a second side to the coin which keeps them from truly reaching their promise. For the Diamondbacks, it was pitching.

After having four pitchers accumulate 10 or more wins in 2011, lead by Kennedy’s 21, the Diamondbacks would only get three pitchers to that level in 2012. Kennedy, despite winning 15 games in 2012, took a step backward as he struggled to find the plate and replicate his Cy Young form from a year earlier, posting a 4.02 ERA along the way. Offseason trade acquisition Trevor Cahill also pitched decently, picking up 13 wins with a 3.78 ERA.

The bright spot for the pitching staff was Wade Miley. Miley put himself into the Rookie of the Year debate in the National League by leading the Diamondbacks with 16 wins, a 3.33 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP.

Without Miley stepping up, the Diamondbacks would have struggled to a much greater degree. A season-ending injury to 2011 16-game Daniel Hudson after just 9 starts this season left Arizona short-handed, and they struggled to find an adequate pitcher to slot into the back-end of the rotation. Joe Saunders struggled in the role before being sent to Baltimore in a late season trade. Arizona would also turn to rookies Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, and Patrick Corbin but none were able to bring their mastery of minor-league hitters to help the Diamondbacks.

The key for Arizona in 2013 is knowing that they are not too far off from the team that won the division a season ago. That said, the team has some tough choices to make this offseason, particularly in the outfield.

Center fielder Chris Young has shown glimpses of stardom in the past, but has proven time and again that he is fragile and inconsistent. At 29-years-old, he does not appear to be turning the corner one would have wanted him to years earlier. Arizona is stuck with him for 2013, with a team option for 2014, but with an $8.5 million deal for next season, he is not likely going anywhere either.

That takes us to right fielder Justin Upton, perhaps the most enigmatic player in baseball. Unlike his brother, BJ Upton, Justin has shown that he can be a MVP candidate. The trouble for him is that he suffers from Bret Saberhagen disease, only playing to his full potential every other season. He is also the most easily traded player on the Diamondbacks rosters and would bring the highest return to the team. With fans and upper management growing weary of him, Arizona should move early in the offseason to maximize return on him. They can then look at moving prospect Matt Davidson to the outfield and getting his big bat to the major league level in 2013.

The trade of Stephen Drew also clears the way for another well regarded prospect in shortstop Chris Owings. Owings may still need to start 2013 in the minors, as he has yet to play above Double-A, but he put together a season of .290, 17 home runs, 58 RBI, and a .775 OPS as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A in 2012. That’s a premium bat for a shortstop and the D-Backs will want an offensive upgrade over John McDonald as quickly as they can get one.

The rest falls on the trio of rookie hurlers. Skaggs, Bauer, and Corbin are well thought of around baseball, and rightfully so. 2013 will be the season for at least two of them to step into the rotation and fully grasp their potential. The dearth of starting pitching available of the market this winter, not to mention the amount of teams with deeper pockets needing the same arms, will dictate that Arizona find their solutions from within. Having a trio of arms like Skaggs, Bauer, and Corbin available to call upon in such a situation should be very reassuring to Diamondbacks fans next season.

Overall, this is a team capable of returning to the big dance with just a few tweaks. Kevin Towers is the man to pull the right strings, so it is just a matter of seeing how the winter shakes out for Arizona.