Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The opening week of the 2013 Major League Baseball season is now officially in the books. While most contemporary fans of the game are savvy enough to understand that one week sample sizes aren’t generally the most reliable representation of a player’s performance, the temptation to overreact to early returns often times still exists. Take a player who pitches in one of the most notoriously harsh sports towns in the country, slap a big new contract on him, add in a couple of poor outings, and you have yourself a solid candidate for some good-ole-fashioned overreaction.

Enter: Cole Hamels.

So far this season, Hamels has thrown 10.2 innings, and they haven’t been very good (13 earned runs, 5 walks, 4 home runs). The early results have been bad, but there is bound to be a lot of noise in the statistics when dealing with such a small sample size. Therefore, rather than looking at Hamels’ outcomes so far this season, it will likely be more enlightening to examine the process that led to them. How is his velocity? How is the movement on his pitches? Answering these questions, rather than simply looking at an extremely small sample of outcomes, will provide some insight as to whether there is anything potentially wrong with Hamels.

Through two starts, Hamels’ velocity has not been a problem. In fact, his average fastball velocity so far, 92 mph, is actually higher than it was last year, 91.2 mph. Typically, a pitcher’s velocity is lower in April than it is at any other point in the season, so the increase is a very encouraging sign. Higher velocity directly correlates with higher strikeout rates, so it’s fairly safe to assume the early lack in strikeouts is probably a result of the variance that occurs in such small sample sizes.

In addition to increased velocity, Hamels has actually had more movement on his pitches so far this season as well. According to pitch-fx data, each pitch in Hamels’ repertoire has been moving more this year than the averages for his career. His fastball, changeup, and curveball all have increased horizontal and vertical movement, while his cutter has increased vertical movement despite moving slightly less horizontally. Therefore, as far as movement goes, Hamels also appears to be okay.

Cole Hamels has not had a great start to his 2013 campaign, but it’s important to remember that strange things happen over one week samples. Batters get lucky on balls in play, fly balls sneak over for homeruns (see: Billy Butler grandslam off Hamels last Sunday), and a whole host of other factors come into play. What is important at this stage of the season is that there has been no drop in velocity or drastic change in pitch selection/movement to cause any red flags. In all likelihood, Cole Hamels is just fine.

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The 2013 World Baseball Classic is now officially underway, and there have already been some fantastic contests. Still, many of the tournament favorites will not be taking the field until this coming weekend, when Pools C and D begin competition in San Juan and Phoenix, respectively. Pools C and D are comprised of: The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Spain, Venezuela, Canada, Mexico, Italy, and The United States. One primary reason why these pools should be so entertaining to watch is the quantity of star-power, particularly at the plate. Three of these lineups, in particular, stand apart from the others in the tournament. I rank them as follows.

#3 Venezuela

Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Infielders

There is a whole lot of depth and flexibility here. It’s not just quantity, though, there’s quality as well. Miguel Cabrera and Pablo Sandoval will be manning the corners, while some combination of Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Marco Scutaro, and Omar Infante will fill in the middle of the infield.

The Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera was the best offensive player in the MLB this past season, going by wRC+, while the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera was top 5 among Major League shortstops. Coming off an MVP season, Miguel Cabrera doesn’t need much introduction. Asdrubal Cabrera’s offensive prowess, on the other hand, may not be quite so well-known. In 2012, the only full time shortstops who put up better seasons with their bats were Derek Jeter and Ian Desmond. It wasn’t an isolated occurrence, either, as only Troy Tulowizki and Jose Reyes have been better offensive shortstops in the last three years combined.

The one player in the Venezuela infield who should be most interesting to follow, though, is Giants’ 3B Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval is coming off a down season that saw him miss significant time due to injury as well as posting an AVG/OBP/SLG line below his career averages in each category. Then there is the weight issue. Sandoval has struggled with his weight in the past, and those problems have reportedly resurfaced again this Spring. When healthy and in-shape, Sandoval is a great offensive third baseman. It will certainly be interesting to see how he looks when he takes the field for Venezuela this weekend.

The Outfielders

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the Venezuela infield possessing the best offensive player in the tournament, Miguel Cabrera, there isn’t much of a dropoff when it comes to the hitting capabilities of its outfield. The starting three will likely be Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez and Arizona’s Gerardo Parra and Martin Prado, all of whom had batting averages and on-base percentages above major league average for outfielders in 2012. Parra (the only player of the three to not to slug above league average) is not quite the offensive threat that Gonzalez and Prado are, but he mitigates some of his shortcomings in the power department by excelling on the basepaths.

Martin Prado possesses an offensive skillset which falls somewhere between Parra and Gonzalez. He is well-rounded offensively, possessing good contact and power tools in addition to adequate speed. Prado has good plate discipline as well, walking at a rate that was almost equivalent to that which he struck out, which helped contribute to a robust .359 OBP (32 points above league average).

Gonzalez was also significantly better at reaching base than league average, getting on base at a clip of .371. Where the Colorado Rockies’ LF really separated himself from the pack, though, was in the slugging department. Gonzalez slugged .510, a healthy 84 points above league average for outfielders. It should be noted that Gonzalez plays his home games in hitter-friendly Coors field, but even so, his park-adjusted numbers were still fantastic. Carlos Gonzalez’s offensive abilities are for real.

The Catchers

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Venezuela has the luxury of having two exceptional offensive catchers. In 2012, the Diamondbacks’ Miguel Montero put up a slash line of .286/.391/.438, while Kansas City’s Salvador Perez posted one to the tune of .301/.328/.471. Both catchers dwarfed the major league averages for catchers, .247/.319/.399.

It is worth noting that one could nitpick each of the two players’ performances, Montero accumulated his numbers while playing half his games in an extreme hitter’s park, while Perez impressed for only a fairly short amount of time, after beginning the season in the minors. Still, the performances remain impressive. Montero’s park adjusted offensive numbers last season were still above league average, and the young Perez should only continue to improve upon his fantastic half season as he continues to mature. Having two offensively gifted catchers will be of significant benefit to the Venezuelan squad.

#2 Dominican Republic

The Infielders

Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The DR infield is stacked. It consists of the Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion at 1B, the Yankees’ Robinson Cano at 2B, and the former Miami Marlins duo of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez at SS and 3B.

Of all qualified 1B, only Prince Fielder had a better offensive season (again, using wRC+) than Edwin Encarnacion last year. At second base, nobody was better than Robinson Cano, and at shortstop, only three players put up better offensive seasons than Jose Reyes (though none of those three came close to the 40 steals Reyes added).

Third baseman Hanley Ramirez is the primary questionmark in the DR infield. After being one of the better overall players in baseball from 2006-2010, Ramirez has seen his production decline in a hurry. This past season, Ramirez posted his worst walk rate since 2007 and the worst strikeout rate of his big league career. The eroding plate discipline, combined with a dropoff in overall power, led to a subpar season by his standards. It will be interesting to see if Ramirez can recapture some of his old offensive ability, but even if he can’t fully return to form, the DR infield still remains the best in the tournament.

The Outfielders

Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The dearth of outfield talent is the primary reason why the DR lineup landed at #2 on this list rather than #1. Though the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz and the White Sox’s Alejandro De Aza are good offensive players, they aren’t necessarily stand-outs with the bat. Furthermore, the lack of a legitimate third outfield option to tie it all together makes it difficult to rate the DR outfield highly. The final spot in the outfield will be given to either Ricardo Nanita, Moises Sierra, or Eury Perez, none of which possesses a significant amount of offensive talent. The DR outfield is not quite an offensive liability, but it certainly doesn’t compare to the immense talent possessed by the team’s infield.

The Catchers

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The DR is going with two catchers on their roster, but in reality, it is likely that only one will see any significant playing time. That man is Cleveland Indians backstop Carlos Santana. Despite what seemed like a disappointing 2012 because of a semi-low homerun total (18) and batting average (.252), Santana actually put together a very good offensive season. He walked at an extremely high rate, leading to a .365 OBP, and hit for some decent pop as well, finishing with a slugging percentage 26 points better than league average for catchers.

Because of his size, Santana will likely never have a great batting average on balls in play, which will likely mean low batting averages. Still, with his exceptional ability to draw walks in addition to his raw power potential, Santana remains a great offensive catcher who should only get better in years to come.

#1 USA

The Infielders

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The USA infield is a pretty intriguing bunch. It consists of Mets 3B David Wright, Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins, Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira, Reds 2B Brandon Phillips, and Rays all-around-everything Ben Zobrist. The USA infield is interesting in this sense, David Wright is the best offensive player in the bunch, but not by much. Why — one might ask — is this interesting? Well, because the only other USA infielder who is right there with him, Ben Zobrist, likely won’t even be starting.

With a slash line of .270/.377/.471 last season while playing his home games in an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark, Ben Zobrist amassed an offensive season that equated to a wRC+ 37% better than league average. The men who will likely be starting over him at 2B and SS (Zobrist can play a little of each), for comparison’s sake, were only 1% better offensively than league average (again, using wRC+). That is not to say Rollins and Phillips aren’t great all around players — they are — but it does go to show how truly underrated Ben Zobrist consistently is.

One USA infielder who should be particularly interesting to keep an eye on is first baseman Mark Teixeira. Teixeira, despite still posting a good offensive season last year, has seen his numbers decline in each individual season since 2008. Much of this decline has to do with a consistently eroding batting average on balls in play. Teams have begun utilizing the shift to neutralize the pull-heavy Teixeira, and the power hitting first baseman hasn’t yet been able to find an answer. In addition to the struggles on balls in play, Teixeira only managed to hit 24 homeruns in 123 games last season. Because he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old, it may be too much to ask for Teixeira to recapture some of his vintage form, but if fully healthy, he should still be able to provide solid offensive value.

The Outfielders

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

This is where the USA team separates itself offensively from the other lineups in the competition. The unit consists of Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton, Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun, Baltimore’s Adam Jones, and Boston’s newly-acquired Shane Victorino. The three men who will see the lion’s share of the playing time are Jones, Braun, and Stanton.

Since 2008, Adam Jones has gotten consistently better each year in both WAR and, more pertinent to this offense-based discussion, wRC+. In 2012, his best season to date, Jones saw a significant improvement in the slugging department. He had both his best line drive rate and home run rate since becoming a full time player, leading to a robust .505 slugging percentage. Offensively speaking, Adam Jones is the worst starting USA outfielder, and that speaks volumes to how good the USA outfield is.

Ryan Braun, since the day he became an everyday player in 2007, has been a force at the plate. His career slash line is an obscene .313/.391/.595, and he’s only getting better, besting all three of those career averages in each of the last two seasons. In fact, according to wRC+, over his career, Braun has been exactly 50% better than league average at the plate. Throw in his back to back 30 steal seasons in ’11 and ’12, and it’s safe to include Braun in the discussion of best all-around offensive player in the game.

Now we get to the player whom I consider the main event when it comes to entertainment value at the plate, Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton, as a 22 year old, led the majors in both slugging and isolated power (SLG – BA). He hit 37 homeruns in only 123 games, an extremely impressive feat in MLB’s current, low run-scoring environment. The huge HR and K rates that Stanton puts up might lead a person to believe that he is merely a hacker, and might not provide much in the way of offensive value aside from his massive homeruns. Don’t be fooled, though. Stanton’s .290 batting average last year as well as his .361 on-base percentage were both well over league average. Make sure you keep an eye on the big boy, he can do it all.

The Catchers

Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Team USA’s group of catchers consists of Minnesota’s Joe Mauer, Milwaukee’s Jonathan Lucroy, and Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia. More than likely, Mauer will see the strong majority of the playing time, while Lucroy will be first in relief. Mauer is coming off a quietly terrific offensive season. Though his numbers didn’t quite compare to his extraordinary 2009 campaign, his slash line still managed to read .319/.416/.446 — elite numbers when it comes to catchers.

Mauer walks more than he strikes out, and consistently enjoys great on-base numbers as a result. His slugging percentage has never returned to the lofty .587 mark he put up in ’09, but his .446 mark last season was still good enough for roughly 50 points above league average. Mauer plays his home games in a very tough offensive environment and still manages to hit for good power. There are many good offensive catchers in this tournament (Santana, Montero, Molina), but Joe Mauer is likely the best among them.

Closing Thoughts

All three of these lineups (Venezuela, Dominican Republic, and USA) possess a wealth of talent at the plate, and are separated only by a thin margin. Venezuela has great depth, but aside from Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Gonzalez lacks the amount of truly elite bats that the Dominican Republic and United States have. The Dominican Republic’s stacked infield/catcher combination is what positions it just ahead of Venezuela, but its lack of impact outfielders is what keeps the team’s offense from being quite as talented as that of the United States.

Team USA has no real weak spots on offense, and its multitude of elite bats coupled with great all-around depth is what earns its lineup the top spot on this list. However, strange things happen in small samples, so don’t discount any country’s potential for an offensive explosion or drought. Still, if I could choose one lineup to manage out of any competing in the World Baseball Classic, I’d go with Team USA.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

One area that is notably weak for many teams entering this year’s World Baseball Classic is the starting rotation. In general, pitchers get injured more often than position players and, as a result, are usually treated more cautiously. Therefore, it is no surprise that many organizations are hesitant to allow their pitchers to throw in games that don’t affect the win-loss record of their particular clubs. However, despite the general trepidation, Team USA has managed to assemble quite an impressive WBC starting rotation.

R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey, Sensei of the staff. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

At the top of the rotation is newly acquired Blue Jay’s knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Dickey is coming off a career year, winning the NL Cy Young award, but was also very good even before last season. Over the past three years, Dickey has posted 2.73, 3.24, and 2.84 ERAs while throwing an average of 205 innings per season over that span. In fact, R.A. Dickey’s 2.95 ERA over that span is good for 11th best of all major league starters. While his fielding independent number’s aren’t quite as good (generally an indicator of luck one way or another), it should be noted that fielding independent statistics don’t generally work as well with knuckleballers as they do when evaluating traditional starters. R.A. Dickey is neither a product of luck nor is he a one-hit wonder, he is a fantastic ace for the USA pitching staff. R.A. Dickey should be feared by opposing countries, as his Karate Kid headband in the picture at right clearly indicates.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez, all natural National. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

What shouldn’t be lost among all the PED allegations around Gio Gonzalez this offseason is that he had a very good 2012, and is more of a 1-a than a number 2 pitcher on this staff. Last season, Gonzalez struck out over a batter an inning and posted a 2.89 ERA for the Nats. The real area of improvement for Gonzalez last year was his walk rate. He went from walking 4.05 batters per 9 to 3.43, and the results followed. Also, Gio’s homerun rate was nearly half of what it was the previous season. Though drastic changes in homerun rates aren’t generally sustainable, improvements in walk rates do generally come with age, so that aspect could certainly be repeated or even improved. If Gio Gonzalez is anywhere close to the pitcher he was last year for the Washington Nationals, he should be a great compliment for R.A. Dickey at the top of this staff.

Ryan Vogelsong

Ryan Vogelsong, started from the bottom. Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Vogelsong, a one-time journeyman pitcher, has turned into a very good major league starter. Before the 2011 season, Vogelsong hadn’t pitched in a major league game since 2006. Since then, he’s had two very good major league seasons for the Giants, with ERAs of 3.37 and 2.71, respectively. He is a guy who fielding independent statistics haven’t necessarily been crazy about, indicating that he may have been on the receiving end of some good luck. However, it’s been two full seasons in a row in which he’s outpitched those numbers, so he should be given some benefit of the doubt. Considering the lack of starting pitching talent among many of the teams in the WBC this year, Vogelsong is likely the best #3 starter in the bunch.

Derek Holland

Derek Holland, presumably “preheating the oven.” Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where the rotation for Team USA starts to get a little thin. The good news, though, is that even the better pitching staffs among the other countries start thinning out far sooner than #4. Despite a lackluster 2012, Holland was actually better than league average in 2010 and 2011. The raw talent is there. His fastball averaged 93 mph in 2012 and 94.2 mph in 2011, as opposed to a league average of about 91.6 mph. However, fastball velocity doesn’t tell the whole story about the effectiveness of a pitcher’s repertoire. Last season Holland got batters to chase at pitches outside the zone and also induced swinging strikes at rates below league average, indicating that his stuff might not be as nasty as a quick glance at velocity may have indicated. Still, Holland has been about a league average major league pitcher over the past three years, which equates to a very good #4 starter in WBC terms. It should also be noted that Holland goes by the nickname “Dutch Oven,” giving him a significant advantage over competitors in terms of hilariousness.

Ross Detwiler

Detwiler, most likely after not inducing one of his trademark groundballs. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The 6’5 lefthander was the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft, and made his major league debut later that same season. Still, despite being a highly-touted, tall lefthander with above average velocity (92.7 mph average fastball last season), Detwiler doesn’t strike many batters out. Rather than racking up Ks, what Detwiler excels at is inducing groundballs, inducing them last year at a rate of 50.8%. Though not a great starting pitcher relative to some other candidates for the roster, the high groundball rate should play extremely well with the excellent USA infield defense. Like Holland, Detwiler has an awesome nickname, National Det (clever, right?). But also like Holland, Detwiler can’t necessarily measure up to the first three pitchers in this rotation. Still, with the dearth of starting pitching in the tournament overall, Detwiler could very well be the better pitcher in most matchups he finds himself in.

Team USA’s rotation is very noticeably without the likes of Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and Clayton Kershaw. Still, the top two pitchers in the rotation represent the first and third place finishers in NL Cy Young voting last season, and pitchers 3-5 are quality major league starters. In a tournament that includes many staffs made up of lower-echelon major leaguers and developing minor league prospects, this group of USA pitchers is more than adequate. The starting rotation should be a strong point for the USA squad come tournament time.

Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB Network’s inaugural “Next Knuckler” competition concluded tonight with the final elimination show of the series. The competition was comprised of five former division one quarterbacks, and was designed to see which one could be taught to throw a knuckleball best in a short period of time. The former QB who would be able to master the knuckler better than his counterparts would receive a spring training invite to Arizona Diamondbacks camp. Former LSU quarterback Josh Booty outlasted former Georgia quarterback David Greene to win the competition and, as promised, a spring training invite.

Josh Booty, though a quarterback at LSU (and briefly in the NFL as well), was no stranger to the baseball diamond. Before playing football for LSU, Booty played baseball in the Florida Marlins organization, eventually spending a brief period of time in the big leagues. However, Booty was a postion player during that stint, and the stint itself ended in 1998.

With very limited pitching experience under his belt, it will be very interesting to follow Booty’s journey through camp this Spring. He has been there before, but in a completely different capacity. In order to be successful this time around, he is going to have to progress an immense amount as a pitcher in an extremely brief period of time. Though it is very likely the “Josh Booty the Knuckler” experiment will ultimately fail, it should still be a whole lot of fun to watch. I know I’ll be rooting for him.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Lineup

Boston’s projected opening day lineup looks to potentially be one of the better offenses in the league. According to MLBDepthCharts, it will likely look like this:

As a whole, the lineup is great. As far as the outfield goes, Jacoby Ellsbury will be looking to bounceback strong after a 2012 campaign mostly lost due to injury. Though he struggled in 2012, he put up an exceptional 2011 season, batting .321/.376/.552 while playing in 158 games. If 100% healthy, Ellsbury could be a major key to Boston’s success.

Flanking Ellsbury in the outfield will be Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes. As with Ellsbury, there is uncertainty surrounding these two as well. In Victorino’s case, it’s due to the fact that he will be 32 years old this year. While 32 is not alarmingly old for a major league regular, it is still past prime, especially for a player whose game relies heavily on speed. In Gomes’ case, the uncertainty is how frequently he will play. Gomes is a far better hitter against left handed pitchers than he is against righties, and, as a result, could potentially see a decent portion of his would-be playing time against right handed pitchers delegated to other players. Still, despite the uncertainties, Boston’s outfield is a formidable unit which has the potential to be very good.

As with the outfield, there is a degree of uncertainty as to how particular infielders might perform this year for Boston. Mike Napoli is coming off a hip injury and will, for the most part, be playing first base as opposed to his traditional position at catcher. Will Middlebrooks, though successful in his brief time with the big league club, has only seen half of a full major league season. Finally, Stephen Drew only played in 79 games last year, and only 86 the year before that.

The good news, though, is that despite some cause for concern, there are also many reasons to be optimistic. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia is back and, despite only playing in 141 games last season, managed to post a 4.5 WAR. Also, despite only playing half a season, third baseman Will Middlebrooks posted very impressive numbers in 2012 and has the potential to be one of the better young third basemen in the game. Finally, if Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, and Stephen Drew (all of whom missed significant time in 2012) can stay relatively healthy, the Red Sox’s lineup could potentially threaten the Blue Jays’ for the title of best in the AL East.

The Pitching Staff

The starting rotation is likely to feature some sort of combination of Felix Doubront, John Lackey, Franklin Morales, and Rubby De La Rosa at the back end in addition to frontline starters Jon Lester, Ryan Dempster, and Clay Buchholz. Aside from Dempster, most of the starting pitchers on the Boston Red Sox are coming off sub-par 2012 seasons. The poor performances don’t necessarily appear to be due to a great deal of bad luck, either. Lester and Doubront finished with ERAs worse than their defense-independent numbers (an indicator of poor luck), but not by a particularly large amount. Buchholz, on the other hand, posted poor numbers in both areas. The starting rotation isn’t awful, but it certainly won’t be a strong suit for the 2013 Red Sox.

Boston’s bullpen, on the other hand, should be excellent. Newly acquired pitchers Koji Uehara and Joel Hanrahan are both coming off excellent seasons for their previous teams, and should make for excellent additions to the Boston pen. Returning from last year’s team will be Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, Alfredo Aceves, and Daniel Bard. Tazawa and Miller quietly posted fantastic seasons last year, achieving ERAs of 1.43 and 3.35, respectively. Also, it should be noted that Andrew Bailey should be fully healthy this season, and thus more likely to put up numbers closer to when he was an all-star in Oakland. Overall, the Boston bullpen is very strong, and should help mitigate some of the weakness of the starting rotation.

Final Verdict

While Boston may not be the powerhouse this year that it was throughout the previous decade, the team certainly should perform better than it did last year. Don’t be surprised if Boston ends up claiming one of the two wild cards in the American League.

The Good

Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Hill is coming off a really, really good 2012 season. How good? Using the fangraphs version of the wins above replacement metric (WAR), only Robinson Cano had a better 2012 as a second baseman. For the uninitiated, WAR takes into account hitting, baserunning, and fielding and is adjusted for postion, league, park, and year in order to determine a single number representative of that player’s value. WAR isn’t perfect, but if nothing else, it gives one a general idea of a player’s overall ability relative to others. Aside from the Yankees’ Robinson Cano and the Rays’ Ben Zobrist, no second baseman was close to Hill’s WAR rating last year. But instead of focusing only on one broad metric, let’s examine Hill piece by piece.

Hill’s most valuable attribute is no doubt his bat. This past year, Hill’s slash line (avg/obp/slg) was .302/.360/.522, compared to a major league average slash line for second basemen of .253/.315/.374. Now, it should be noted that Hill posted those numbers while playing his home games at Chase Field, a hitter’s park. Having said that, Hill’s offensive numbers last season were so above and beyond the major league average for second basemen that the benefit of Chase Field shouldn’t be held against him much at all.

When a hitter sees such a drastic increase in his numbers, often times the change can be attributed to that hitter being particularly lucky that year. With Hill, there are certain indicators of a moderate amount of luck in his 2012 numbers, but nothing to suggest anything extreme. One way in which hitters can be considered “lucky” is by having a high percentage of the balls they put into play fall in for hits as opposed to being caught for outs, this is measured using BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Last year, Hill posted a .317 BABIP as opposed to his career average of .290 and last year’s major league average of .297. The disparity suggests that we might see Hill’s average dip from the .302 mark he posted this past season, but a slight drop in batting average shouldn’t hurt Hill’s value to any significant extent.

So Hill’s average may have been slightly inflated, but can the same be said of his on-base and slugging percentages?

Aaron Hill’s .360 OBP last year was the highest of his eight year major league career. His OBP certainly benefited to some extent from Hill’s good fortune on balls in play, but there is another reason for the spike. Namely, Hill put up the second best walk rate of his career.

A better eye at the plate last season for Hill shouldn’t be immediately disregarded as completely random, as players do tend to improve their plate discipline with experience. Additionally, Hill was intentionally walked seven times last year, nearly as many as he received in his 7 prior years of major league service combined. It’s difficult to speculate as to why Hill saw so many intentional walks, and whether this year’s lineup construction will present the same opportunities, but regardless, the increase cannot be said to be completely unrelated to Hill’s overall offensive improvement in general. While luck may have influenced Hill’s OBP last year to a certain extent, a good deal of the improvement can be linked to his improved plate discipline, and therefore, ability to draw walks.

While putting up career highs in AVG and OBP, Hill also slugged a career high .522 in 2012. Despite last year only being tied for his second best season to date as far as homeruns, Hill outperformed his previous best slugging percentage by over twenty percentage points. It is likely that Hill’s impressive slugging percentage was due, in part, to playing half his games in hitter friendly Chase Field. The good news for the Diamondbacks in this regard, though, is that he will continuing doing so throughout the length of his new extension.

In addition to park factors, there are various other reasons why Aaron Hill set a new career best in slugging last year. For one, Hill hit flyballs at a rate above his career average. Generally, when a player hits more flyballs in general, he also hits more homeruns as a result. In addition to hitting a greater quantity of flyballs, a higher percentage of those balls Hill was putting into the air were going for homeruns as well. Also, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, only four of Hill’s homeruns were of the “just enough” classification, meaning the vast majority of his homeruns were legitimate blasts. Whether it was due to a change of approach or some other factor, Aaron Hill hit more flyballs last year for longer distances, and his slugging percentage reaped the benefits.

The Bad

Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Thus far in the analysis, there has been a whole lot to like about Hill. Thus far in the analysis, however, only Hill’s 2012 season has been under consideration. While it’s true that a player’s most recent season should receive the most weight during analysis, the seasons preceding it must still be considered in the evaluation to paint an accurate picture of who a player really is.

Going by wins above replacement, Hill was a below league-average player in both 2010 and 2011. Needless to say, below league average is a steep dropoff from the position of second best second baseman in the majors. Because WAR includes defense and baserunning, it’s important to check there to see if either of those factored into the poor performances. In Hill’s case, they did not factor in, to any meaningful extent. Aaron Hill was a below league average player in 2010 and 2011 because of his bat.

So we’ve been informed that Aaron Hill put up extremely poor offensive numbers in 2010 and 2011, but why? Those two consecutive off-years were sandwiched by the two best seasons of his career, after all. The situation seems somewhat strange, so let’s take a closer look.

2010 saw Hill post a slash line of .205/.271/.394, a far cry from the career highs he recently posted in 2012. However, the subpar numbers were not entirely Hill’s fault. In fact, Hill was severely unlucky in 2010. That season saw Hill post a BABIP of .196, about 100 percentage points below both league average and his career average. The extremely low BABIP was largely a product of Hill hitting line drives at about half the rate of his career average (10.6% as opposed to 19.2% for his career). Neither number, the BABIP nor the LD%, can be sustained at a rate so low, so Hill’s performance that year could be said not only to have been poor overall, but also extremely unlucky.

In 2011, there was more bad luck for Hill, but it came in a different fashion. His BABIP returned to a level closer to his career average, and his line drive rate actually climbed above his career average. This time, the abberation was his HR/FB rate. HR/FB measures the percentage of fly balls hit that leave the park for homeruns versus ones that remain inside the fence. For his career, Aaron Hill has hit 8.4% of his flyballs for homeruns. In 2011, it was exactly half that number. Because only 4.2% of Hill’s flyballs left the park, naturally he saw a steep dropoff in power that season. As a result, though Hill’s batting average and on-base percentage were far better than they were in 2010, his slugging percentage was substantially lower. His homerun total dropped from 26 in 138 games in 2010 to 8 in 137 games in 2011.

Though hitters do influence their HR/FB via their strength, swing plane, etc., there is certainly still a decent amount of luck that factors into it. Hill likely had a mechanical or approach issue that negatively influenced his homerun rate, but it is likely that there was also a substantial amount of bad luck at play. As with his 2010 effort, Hill’s 2011 performance was not nearly as poor as it would initially seem.

The Outlook

September 25, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA

The story told by the snapshot of the previous few years of Hill’s career is one full of intrigue. Great 2012 and 2009 campaigns were sandwiched around very disappointing 2010 and 2011 efforts. So is Hill the elite player he was during the highs, or is he the below league average player he was during the lows? The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, but he is certainly closer to elite status than the contrary.

There was far more bad luck fueling Hill’s down years than there was good luck fueling his career year this past season. In the immediate future, with a little luck, Hill can be close to the player he was in 2012. As with all players, though, expect Hill’s performance to begin to decline as he advances closer to his mid-30′s. Still, even if Hill manages to be half as valuable of a player going forward as he was this past year, the new three year extension is a fantastic deal for the Diamondbacks.

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Lineup

Since the dust has settled, for now, the new-look Indians can be dissected. The lineup should look something like this:

One interesting aspect of the Indians’ new lineup is that it projects to have at least three lefthanders as well as at least three switch hitters, depending on how it’s constructed. The lineup possesses great speed (Bourn, Kipnis, Stubbs) and also great power (Cabrera, Swisher, Santana, Reynolds). The defense will likely be a weak point, with the exception of Bourn in center, but the offensive potential the lineup possesses should more than compensate for the sub-par defending. The projected lineup for the Indians is not quite on par with that of the Tigers, but it is likely second best in the division.

The Rotation

The stable of pitchers for the 2013 Cleveland Indians will look like this:

At the top of the roatation, Masterson and Jimenez pitched to 4.93 and 5.40 ERAs last year, respectively. Brett Myers fared better, posting a 3.31 ERA. He did so, however, as a reliever, while also posting his second lowest strikeout rate since 2002. Thus, there is reason to question whether he can match last year’s moderate levels of success.

In contrast to the front of the rotation, the back-end could provide something for Cleveland fans to look forward to. Though he ended up finishing with fairly pedestrian numbers, young right-hander Zach McAllister posted 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings while walking only 2.13 batters per nine during the first half of the 2012 season. Though his 4.10 k/bb ratio from the first half would eventually settle at 2.89, there is still great reason to believe that the 25 year old could have a very solid 2013.

In addition to McAllister, the back-end of the Indians’ pitching rotation could potentially feature 22 year old right-hander Trevor Bauer. Bauer, ranked as baseball’s 25th best prospect by Keith Law, saw some time in the majors for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year after tearing through the club’s minor league ranks. His performance once he reached the big leagues was disappointing, but it is worth noting that his struggles came while hampered by a groin injury suffered in his first start with the team. If Bauer is healthy, he could bring a much needed strikeout-heavy presence to the Indians’ rotation.

The Outlook

Though pitching could potentially be a sore spot for Cleveland this year, there is still reason for optimism. Primarily, it’s that the offense is fantastic. The Indians’ lineup is extremely potent 1-5, and there’s also some decent upside in the back with Stubbs and Reynolds. Cleveland will have the offense necessary to contend this year, whether or not the pitching and defense can hold up their end of the bargain, however, will be the real question.