At the beginning of the season, through the end of April, when Baltimore was keeping pace with the titans of the AL East, it was easy to chalk it up to a few good bounces. At the end of May, with the team still firmly in the hunt, most of the credit went to the breakouts of star hitters Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Now it’s September, and although the stars have faded somewhat, the team clearly hasn’t. I know that I personally had low expectations for the Orioles this year, as did many prognosticators, and that those doubts largely centered around the question marks in the team’s rotation.

Hammel has filled the void at the top of Baltimore's rotation. Photo: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

It’s only fair, then, to give some credit to a rotation that, while unspectacular, has been just good enough to keep the Orioles in contention in the toughest division in baseball. The team traded away Jeremy Guthrie, who was (by ERA, at least) the team’s best starter in 2011. That trade brought back Jason Hammel, who has been a revelation in putting up a career year. Hammel’s numbers were inflated as a Rockie, as he did have to deal with making half his starts at Coors, and although Orioles brass could have reasonably expected some improvement, there’s no way they could have predicted his immediate success. Hammel has been Baltimore’s best pitcher, striking out nearly a batter an inning for a career high while keeping more than half of balls in play on the ground.

While Hammel has been impressive, perhaps the more pleasant surprise for the O’s has been the workload handled by Wei-Yin Chen. While knee injuries have cost Hammel some games this year, Chen has started each of his 27 turns this year, pitching 163.2 innings with numbers that aren’t lights-out but are certainly serviceable. Chen’s striking out just under one in five batters, but is still effective because of his impressive control. Chen’s already made the second-most starts of any Taiwanese-born player in MLB history. Chien-Ming Wang, Chen’s most prolific countryman in the game, struggled when he debuted in 2005, and the country’s second best pitcher, Hong-Chih Kuo, also struggled until later in his career. Many starters who have come over from Asia in the past, including Wang, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Kei Igawa, had trouble adjusting to the American game. However, in the more recent past, Kenshin Kawakami, Hiroki Kuroda, and this year Chen and Yu Darvish (among others) have found immediate success on baseball’s biggest stage.

I’m not sure what that says about Chen’s long-term success, but I can tell you that the Orioles clearly hope he just keeps doing what he’s doing. Chen has been able to provide some stability to a rotation that hasn’t had anyone besides the aforementioned Jeremy Guthrie, exiled to the hurler’s hell that is Coors, pitch 200 innings since 2007. In the future, Chen can be a very capable back-of-the-rotation starter, excellently equipped to handle 30 starts and display some consistency to take some of the pressure off of the O’s developing starters. The hope is that if Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, and Brian Matusz begin unlocking a little more of their potential, and things go as planned with the freak of nature that is Dylan Bundy, Chen is an excellent complementary piece. However, as the centerpiece of the rotation in which he’s been forced to share the spotlight with Hammel, Chen has been just good enough to help keep Baltimore in the hunt.

Questions or comments are welcome in 140 characters or less @saberbythebay.

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Currently, the chances of a player surfacing in the near future seem to be somewhat slim. Several women have played independent league baseball, and found varying degrees of success, but none have succeeded to the point of a signing with an MLB team and entering affiliated baseball. Japanese knuckleballer Eri Yoshida may be the woman in recent memory with the best chance to break that barrier. Yoshida was drafted by a professional team in Japan at the age of 16, and showcased her abilities in the Kansai Independent Baseball League. Just after her 18th birthday, Yoshida appeared in American baseball for the first time, pitching for the Yuma Scorpions of the Arizona Winter League in the hopes of catching on with an MLB club. While she impressed in that league, Yoshida did not receive an offer from an affiliated team, but played in the independent Golden Baseball League with the Chico Outlaws. While she struggled, Yoshida was surrounded by more experienced players and her manager, former MLB shortstop Garry Templeton, suggested that any player at her age could be prone to struggles against the older players in the league. Yoshida had the chance to train with fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, and once again joined Templeton when he moved to the Na Koa Ikaika Maui of the North American Baseball League. As Yoshida ages, she will learn to better control and use her knuckler, and Templeton has suggested that she would benefit from extended coaching by an experienced knuckleballer. Should that happen, Yoshida could have a chance at baseball’s higher levels.

Like Yoshida, Tiffany Brooks has found some success in the independent and instructional leagues, pitching and playing first in the California Winter League, Arizona Summer League, and Arizona Winter League. Brooks signed with the Big Bend Cowboys of the Continental Baseball League in 2010, and made the team’s opening day roster after spring training. Brooks will be featured in the upcoming documentary Throw Like a Girl. Hopefully, her story continues and leads her to eventually get a chance with an MLB affiliate. However, at this point, Yoshida seems as though she may have a better chance.

Female managers have been similarly disappointed. Perhaps the most well-known and successful has been Justine Siegal, now 36. Siegal founded an organization called Baseball for All about 14 years ago, and the organization continues to advocate for baseball globally, with a focus on the integration of women. Siegal served as a coach for  the men’s team at Springfield College from 2007-2010, and in 2009 became the first woman on the coaching staff of a men’s professional team when she coached first base for the Brockton Rox of the independent Can-Am league. Last year, Siegal became the first woman to throw batting practice for an MLB team, pitching to minor league batters in the Indians organization, and since has thrown to members of the A’s, Rays, Cardinals, Astros, and Mets organizations. Some objections to her participation have been registered, mostly on the basis that it would be difficult for her to find respect in the male-dominated arena of the clubhouse. In my opinion, Siegal has the experience around the game to earn that respect, and if players are not willing to follow her lead the blame should be directed at the players themselves.

Kim Ng is the favorite to be the first female GM. Image: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

While women on the field have encountered numerous barriers, one arena where they have made inroads is in the front office. The large majority of MLB teams now have female employees in baseball operations. As sabermetrics has become more of a mainstream concept, prospective employees have been judged more on the basis of their abilities, and while playing the game at a high level was once essentially a prerequisite to working in a front office that is (to my great relief, as I didn’t get past high school ball) no longer the case. With that revolution, more positions in the game have opened up to women, and several have climbed the ladder to the point of receiving consideration for upper management positions. Most prominent among these is Kim Ng.  Ng graduated from the University of Chicago and was hired by the White Sox as a special projects analyst. Ng was the first woman to present an MLB salary arbitration case (that of Alex Fernandez), and then worked in the offices of the American League. In 1997, Ng became the first female assistant GM when she was hired by the Yankees, and moved to the Dodgers in the same position in 2001. Ng interviewed for GM openings with the Dodgers (2005), the Mariners (2008), and the Padres (2009). Ng now serves as Senior VP of Baseball Operations with MLB. While she has not been successful in her quest to become the first MLB GM yet, I would be absolutely shocked if a team doesn’t hire the first female GM within the next five years, and right now Ng is clearly the frontrunner.

Every day, baseball becomes more and more of a meritocracy, and with that movement, women get closer to participation at its highest levels. In the game’s early days, African-American and Afro-Latino players were not signed by big league teams, despite the fact that there was no specific rule on the books against their inclusion. When Branch Rickey brought Jackie Robinson on to break the color barrier, he understood that the game simply does not allow winning teams to ignore possible sources of value. Teams are forced to put the best possible product on the field to have any chance at championship contention, and ignoring a worthy segment of possible players, managers, or executives prevents the team from finding the best talent it can. While there isn’t currently a female player obviously worthy of big-league consideration, if a player should come along I would hope and expect that a team would give her that shot. In many ways, teams can’t afford not to.

Questions or comments are welcome in 140 characters or less @saberbythebay.

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Melky acknowledges his home crowd... the left fielder has had a lot of reasons to celebrate so far in 2012. Photo: Beck Diefenbach-US PRESSWIRE

Currently, Cabrera’s 135 hits lead MLB, with Andrew McCutchen trailing just behind at 129. Cabrera’s had success getting on base from both sides of the plate. In the majority of his at-bats, which come batting lefty against right-handed pitchers, Cabrera has simply singled his way to success, relying on the more powerful bats of Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval to plate him later in the inning. Overall, Cabrera has hit singles in over a quarter of his at-bats, the only player in baseball to do so up to this point. His singles rate is fairly similar from either side of the plate. However, as a lefty, Melky’s batting average is fairly empty, without much power or on-base ability. From the right side, however, Cabrera has added a completely new dimension to his game.

In 2012, Melky has found his stroke from the right side and so far has hit for enormous power. The Melkman proved he was capable of a high average last year when he put together a 201-hit season, and his 18 home runs were also a career high. With 10 home runs in 408 plate appearances overall, he falls slightly short of the middle of the pack of qualified hitters at a rate of one home run per 40.8 PA. However, Cabrera is tearing up lefties, taking them deep once every 17.3 PA. Overall, this rate would be the fifth best in the NL, behind prolific sluggers Ryan Braun, Pedro Alvarez, and Giancarlo Stanton, and the criminally underrated Jason Kubel. As a side note, I thought the Kubel signing was a head-scratcher because it firmly seated the defensive value of Gerardo Parra on the bench, but it’s time to give credit where credit is due. Kubel’s having an resurgent offensive season, and I offer a proverbial tip of the cap to both the left fielder and his excellent GM, Kevin Towers.

To delve further into Melky’s differing approaches from either side of the plate, I’ve consulted his Pitch F/X Hitter Profile, a new tool created by Dan Brooks of brooksbaseball.net in conjunction with Baseball Prospectus. Melky’s Pitch F/X profile allows us to determine where he’s being pitched by pitchers with either hand, which of those pitches he’s been making contact with, and, of those, which he’s been able to consistently drive. Here is the Melkman’s home run chart as a right-handed hitter (all images are from the perspective of the catcher). As you can see, six of his seven home runs against southpaws have been against pitches on the inner third or further inside. This includes three on pitches that Pitch F/X saw as balls inside that Melky saw fit to bombard the bleachers with anyway. In a broader sense, take a look at his ISO as a righty, normalized against the average right handed hitter. This chart shows league average for a righty as 100%, so the 238% on pitches middle-in shows that Melky’s hitting for 138% more power on pitches in that part of the zone than an average righty this season. If that’s a little too technical for you, the important takeaway is this… that’s a heck of a lot of red paint on the inside corner.

Last year was a breakout year for Melky, as his hitting took a big step forward, especially from the right side. In 2012, Melky’s taken the next step, decisively turning on balls on the inner half while retaining the patience and coordination to take pitches low and outside the opposite way for line-drive singles into rightfield. As we’ve all heard since our first day in Little League, one of the many keys to hitting, among the most difficult feats in professional sports, is not trying to do too much. As Melky’s right-handed average chart shows, he’s still hitting consistently on the tough-to-hit balls on the outer half of the plate, rather than stubbornly trying to pull those pitches for extra-base hits. Switching over to his chart as a lefthanded hitter (ie against righthanded pitchers) shows that his success from that side of the plate, which relies on a high batting average because of the lack of power thus far, is similarly based on an ability to make consistent contact with balls on the outer half and pick up a base knock, trusting the core of the team’s lineup to drive him in rather than selling out for power.

Melky knows he can crush balls on the inner half from the right side, and has set himself up for a fringe MVP candidacy with a strong second half if he can continue to hit for solid contact on the outer half and against right-handed pitchers and booming power inside. Whatever happens from here on out, Melky’s already ensured that the offseason swap of himself for Ryan Verdugo and Jonathan Sanchez was one of the best deals of the year, as Sanchez has since been DFA’d by the Royals and then swapped for the equally awful Jeremy Guthrie. While he’s unlikely to sustain his torrid pace throughout the year, Melky’s excellent approach has turned his right-handed hitting, traditionally his weaker side, into a cornerstone of his offensive ability.

Thanks for reading! I’d suggest, if you thought the charts I used were interesting and informative, that you go poke around the BP Pitch F/X profiles yourself. I can basically guarantee you’ll learn something.

Questions or comments are welcome in 140 characters or less @saberbythebay.

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