Justin Smoak’s offensive struggles aren’t the lone issue plaguing the Mariners’ lineup this season. (Image Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

The chief focus of the offseason for the Seattle Mariners was the need to add some pop to an offense that ranked among the league’s worst in 2012. Mike Morse, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and others were all brought in over the winter with the hope that an improved lineup would help balance a strong pitching staff, resulting in a team that just might prove to be competitive. So far the results haven’t quite been what the organization – or their fanbase – were hoping for. With the continued struggles at the plate, there could be roster moves coming in an effort to shake things up.

ESPN’s Keith Law discussed some of those possible moves in his latest Insider-only column, specifically focusing on a pair of players who just might benefit from a demotion to the minor leagues – Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley.

Montero was brought in prior to the 2012 season with high expectations. Considered among the game’s top offensive prospects, there were few questions about his bat but plenty about his defense. Most scouts and analysts believed that there was no way Montero would be able to stick behind the plate long term. A move to first base, or even designated hitter, seemed inevitable.

Last season the defensive concerns were mitigated by the team’s ability to work Montero into the lineup as their DH thanks to the presence of John Jaso on the roster. Montero received 553 PA on the year, more than half of which coming as the team’s DH, and hit .260/.298/.386 with 15 HR and 20 2B. Jaso is now in Oakland – through the trade that landed Morse in Seattle – and the team brought in Kelly Shoppach to help behind the plate. Montero’s been left to take most of the at bats there, which has resulted in some noticeable struggles at the plate on the year thus far, as he’s hitting just .224/.250/.306 with a pair of extra base hits (one home run, one double). To further complicate things, he’s not playing everyday which has made it challenging for him to find a regular routine.

Law emphatically suggests that the Mariners “give up” on the idea of Montero as a full time catcher, instead shifting him into the DH role permanently. Such a move is easier said than done, however, thanks to the remaining makeup of the team’s roster and the presence of Justin Smoak. Despite his ongoing struggles – a combined .226/.304/.373 line in 1,228 plate appearances since joining the organization at the 2010 July trade deadline – there seems to be an unwillingness to take Smoak out of the everyday lineup on the part of the organization. In 82 PA this year he’s hit even worse, managing just a .208/.305/.236 mark. Last July Dave Cameron at U.S.S. Mariner concluded that among first baseman in the past 30 years to receive 1,000 PA by their 25th birthday, Smoak was hands down the worst of the bunch. So far it doesn’t appear as though he’s gotten any better.

However, with both Smoak and Morales (whose .250/.357/.403 line on the season to date isn’t exactly world-changing) on the roster the team’s essentially locked in as far as who their starters at first base and DH will be, leaving little room for Montero to be in the lineup daily. Cameron suggests that there’s little reason to continue hoping for a turnaround from Smoak, as there are just no indicators that point to an improvement coming. Jettisoning Smoak from the roster would permit the team to install Morales at first base and Montero at DH. There seems to be little other option.

As for Ackley, his struggles have been just as severe yet somewhat less publicized outside of the Seattle area.

Like Montero, he arrived in Seattle amid high expectations. The 2nd overall pick in the 2009 Draft, the highly athletic Ackley was expected to make his way to the Major Leagues quickly and that he’d be a star upon arriving. He lived up to the first part of that, cruising through the minor leagues before making his debut with the Mariners early in the 2011 season. Ackley looked like a solid piece of the Mariners’ future when he made his way into the lineup, batting .273/.348/.417 in 376 PA over the remainder of the 2011 season, good enough to finish 6th in AL Rookie of the Year voting. He’s done nothing but struggle since.

In 71 PA on the season to date he’s managed just a .197/.232/.227 line. His once superior bat speed has eluded him and he’s become impatient at the plate. Ackley appears to be regressing, rather than developing into the star everyone thought he could be. Law questions whether a stint back in the minor leagues could benefit him, potentially getting him re-focused. The team could also look to top prospect Nick Franklin as a temporary replacement. Franklin comes with his own shortcomings – lack of patience at the plate and questions about his ability to hit from the right side – but he could still offer up a temporary improvement while Ackley figures things out in a less-pressurized environment.

Simply sending Montero and/or Ackley down to the minor leagues won’t resolve all of the Mariners’ offensive woes. Brendan Ryan (.148/.217/.148) and Ibanez (.174/.224/.348) are both hitting well below an acceptable level. Morse (.214/.267/.500) has been a disappointment to date, beyond the power numbers (6 HR, 2 2B). Jason Bay (.184/.311/.289) has hit so poorly that people have stopped wondering what happened to his ability to be an offensive force. In fact, only Kyle Seager (.276/.337/.487) has played above replacement level on the season to date.

Seattle’s offensive struggles have left the team in a tough position. It’s still early enough in the season that a justification to wait things out could be made. Things might just turn around. Given the competitive AL Western division, however, an argument could be made that the time to make changes is now, before the team falls further behind in the standings. There’s hardly an easy solution to Seattle’s troubles – unless some folks in Seattle have discovered a way to clone Felix Hernandez, allowing him to pitch everyday (though even that may not be enough to overcome these offensive shortcomings). Patience, and perhaps a little creativity, could ultimately be the key towards righting this ship. Otherwise it could be a very long summer in Seattle.

Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The opening week of the 2013 Major League Baseball season is now officially in the books. While most contemporary fans of the game are savvy enough to understand that one week sample sizes aren’t generally the most reliable representation of a player’s performance, the temptation to overreact to early returns often times still exists. Take a player who pitches in one of the most notoriously harsh sports towns in the country, slap a big new contract on him, add in a couple of poor outings, and you have yourself a solid candidate for some good-ole-fashioned overreaction.

Enter: Cole Hamels.

So far this season, Hamels has thrown 10.2 innings, and they haven’t been very good (13 earned runs, 5 walks, 4 home runs). The early results have been bad, but there is bound to be a lot of noise in the statistics when dealing with such a small sample size. Therefore, rather than looking at Hamels’ outcomes so far this season, it will likely be more enlightening to examine the process that led to them. How is his velocity? How is the movement on his pitches? Answering these questions, rather than simply looking at an extremely small sample of outcomes, will provide some insight as to whether there is anything potentially wrong with Hamels.

Through two starts, Hamels’ velocity has not been a problem. In fact, his average fastball velocity so far, 92 mph, is actually higher than it was last year, 91.2 mph. Typically, a pitcher’s velocity is lower in April than it is at any other point in the season, so the increase is a very encouraging sign. Higher velocity directly correlates with higher strikeout rates, so it’s fairly safe to assume the early lack in strikeouts is probably a result of the variance that occurs in such small sample sizes.

In addition to increased velocity, Hamels has actually had more movement on his pitches so far this season as well. According to pitch-fx data, each pitch in Hamels’ repertoire has been moving more this year than the averages for his career. His fastball, changeup, and curveball all have increased horizontal and vertical movement, while his cutter has increased vertical movement despite moving slightly less horizontally. Therefore, as far as movement goes, Hamels also appears to be okay.

Cole Hamels has not had a great start to his 2013 campaign, but it’s important to remember that strange things happen over one week samples. Batters get lucky on balls in play, fly balls sneak over for homeruns (see: Billy Butler grandslam off Hamels last Sunday), and a whole host of other factors come into play. What is important at this stage of the season is that there has been no drop in velocity or drastic change in pitch selection/movement to cause any red flags. In all likelihood, Cole Hamels is just fine.

If Porcello can be had for a reliever, there are 29 GMs who need to pick up the phone right now. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest shock to the system was to see that Detroit actually offered to deal Porcello to the Padres in exchange for a premium reliever, in this case Huston Street or Luke Gregerson. I get that Detroit’s very biggest area of weakness is most certainly its questionable bullpen, but the price of relief pitching should never reach such heights when it’s so volatile and unpredictable. Then again, maybe a lot of that has to do with just how undervalued Porcello’s skill set and Major League accomplishments are at this point in time.

Porcello won’t even turn 25 until December of this year, and by that time he will have already completed five full seasons at the highest level of professional baseball. That’s almost unheard of, and that sort of experience at such a young age is typically only associated with superstars. Porcello didn’t develop into a superstar, but he has shown that he happened to come out of the gate as a highly polished starter with some positive attributes. While he isn’t an ace, he’s about as good of a back-end starter as you’re likely to find, and unlike many back-end starters, he isn’t just filler. There is still room for improvement here.

Porcello has proven himself durable. While he hasn’t ever logged 200 innings, he’s made between 27 and 31 starts in every season of his young career. He’s also quite gifted when it comes to throwing strikes, as his career walk rate is a mere 2.3 per nine innings. Porcello has also been worth between 2.0 and 2.9 WAR in every season on his resume, and both his FIP and xFIP actually sunk below 4.00 in 2012 as his strikeout rate improved ever so slightly. These are all positive attributes, and when concerning a pitcher only 24 years of age, they point toward potentially greater things down the road.

On top of the minor statistical improvements, Porcello flashed a fastball that averaged nearly two MPH more than it did in 2011 last season. His pitches are bound to get sharper as he gets older, and his ground ball approach would definitely play better for a team whose infield didn’t consist of slow, awkward sluggers who clearly lie about their weigh on their ESPN player profiles.

But let’s say Porcello never gets better and this is what he is. Even if that happens to be the case (which I don’t believe it is), he carries far more value than just about any reliever could ever provide in limited innings. Porcello takes the mound every fifth day, turns in solid but unspectacular work, and doesn’t kill himself with free passes. He’s the sort of pitcher that might wind up the recipient of an expensive three-year deal by a club desperate for pitching, so why should he only warrant a reliever in return? And that’s not even what other teams are offering, that’s what Detroit is asking! Baseball has come a long way in understanding what’s valuable and what’s not so valuable, but there’s still plenty of road left to be traveled.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

One area that is notably weak for many teams entering this year’s World Baseball Classic is the starting rotation. In general, pitchers get injured more often than position players and, as a result, are usually treated more cautiously. Therefore, it is no surprise that many organizations are hesitant to allow their pitchers to throw in games that don’t affect the win-loss record of their particular clubs. However, despite the general trepidation, Team USA has managed to assemble quite an impressive WBC starting rotation.

R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey, Sensei of the staff. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

At the top of the rotation is newly acquired Blue Jay’s knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Dickey is coming off a career year, winning the NL Cy Young award, but was also very good even before last season. Over the past three years, Dickey has posted 2.73, 3.24, and 2.84 ERAs while throwing an average of 205 innings per season over that span. In fact, R.A. Dickey’s 2.95 ERA over that span is good for 11th best of all major league starters. While his fielding independent number’s aren’t quite as good (generally an indicator of luck one way or another), it should be noted that fielding independent statistics don’t generally work as well with knuckleballers as they do when evaluating traditional starters. R.A. Dickey is neither a product of luck nor is he a one-hit wonder, he is a fantastic ace for the USA pitching staff. R.A. Dickey should be feared by opposing countries, as his Karate Kid headband in the picture at right clearly indicates.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez, all natural National. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

What shouldn’t be lost among all the PED allegations around Gio Gonzalez this offseason is that he had a very good 2012, and is more of a 1-a than a number 2 pitcher on this staff. Last season, Gonzalez struck out over a batter an inning and posted a 2.89 ERA for the Nats. The real area of improvement for Gonzalez last year was his walk rate. He went from walking 4.05 batters per 9 to 3.43, and the results followed. Also, Gio’s homerun rate was nearly half of what it was the previous season. Though drastic changes in homerun rates aren’t generally sustainable, improvements in walk rates do generally come with age, so that aspect could certainly be repeated or even improved. If Gio Gonzalez is anywhere close to the pitcher he was last year for the Washington Nationals, he should be a great compliment for R.A. Dickey at the top of this staff.

Ryan Vogelsong

Ryan Vogelsong, started from the bottom. Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Vogelsong, a one-time journeyman pitcher, has turned into a very good major league starter. Before the 2011 season, Vogelsong hadn’t pitched in a major league game since 2006. Since then, he’s had two very good major league seasons for the Giants, with ERAs of 3.37 and 2.71, respectively. He is a guy who fielding independent statistics haven’t necessarily been crazy about, indicating that he may have been on the receiving end of some good luck. However, it’s been two full seasons in a row in which he’s outpitched those numbers, so he should be given some benefit of the doubt. Considering the lack of starting pitching talent among many of the teams in the WBC this year, Vogelsong is likely the best #3 starter in the bunch.

Derek Holland

Derek Holland, presumably “preheating the oven.” Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where the rotation for Team USA starts to get a little thin. The good news, though, is that even the better pitching staffs among the other countries start thinning out far sooner than #4. Despite a lackluster 2012, Holland was actually better than league average in 2010 and 2011. The raw talent is there. His fastball averaged 93 mph in 2012 and 94.2 mph in 2011, as opposed to a league average of about 91.6 mph. However, fastball velocity doesn’t tell the whole story about the effectiveness of a pitcher’s repertoire. Last season Holland got batters to chase at pitches outside the zone and also induced swinging strikes at rates below league average, indicating that his stuff might not be as nasty as a quick glance at velocity may have indicated. Still, Holland has been about a league average major league pitcher over the past three years, which equates to a very good #4 starter in WBC terms. It should also be noted that Holland goes by the nickname “Dutch Oven,” giving him a significant advantage over competitors in terms of hilariousness.

Ross Detwiler

Detwiler, most likely after not inducing one of his trademark groundballs. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The 6’5 lefthander was the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft, and made his major league debut later that same season. Still, despite being a highly-touted, tall lefthander with above average velocity (92.7 mph average fastball last season), Detwiler doesn’t strike many batters out. Rather than racking up Ks, what Detwiler excels at is inducing groundballs, inducing them last year at a rate of 50.8%. Though not a great starting pitcher relative to some other candidates for the roster, the high groundball rate should play extremely well with the excellent USA infield defense. Like Holland, Detwiler has an awesome nickname, National Det (clever, right?). But also like Holland, Detwiler can’t necessarily measure up to the first three pitchers in this rotation. Still, with the dearth of starting pitching in the tournament overall, Detwiler could very well be the better pitcher in most matchups he finds himself in.

Team USA’s rotation is very noticeably without the likes of Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and Clayton Kershaw. Still, the top two pitchers in the rotation represent the first and third place finishers in NL Cy Young voting last season, and pitchers 3-5 are quality major league starters. In a tournament that includes many staffs made up of lower-echelon major leaguers and developing minor league prospects, this group of USA pitchers is more than adequate. The starting rotation should be a strong point for the USA squad come tournament time.

The Good

Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Hill is coming off a really, really good 2012 season. How good? Using the fangraphs version of the wins above replacement metric (WAR), only Robinson Cano had a better 2012 as a second baseman. For the uninitiated, WAR takes into account hitting, baserunning, and fielding and is adjusted for postion, league, park, and year in order to determine a single number representative of that player’s value. WAR isn’t perfect, but if nothing else, it gives one a general idea of a player’s overall ability relative to others. Aside from the Yankees’ Robinson Cano and the Rays’ Ben Zobrist, no second baseman was close to Hill’s WAR rating last year. But instead of focusing only on one broad metric, let’s examine Hill piece by piece.

Hill’s most valuable attribute is no doubt his bat. This past year, Hill’s slash line (avg/obp/slg) was .302/.360/.522, compared to a major league average slash line for second basemen of .253/.315/.374. Now, it should be noted that Hill posted those numbers while playing his home games at Chase Field, a hitter’s park. Having said that, Hill’s offensive numbers last season were so above and beyond the major league average for second basemen that the benefit of Chase Field shouldn’t be held against him much at all.

When a hitter sees such a drastic increase in his numbers, often times the change can be attributed to that hitter being particularly lucky that year. With Hill, there are certain indicators of a moderate amount of luck in his 2012 numbers, but nothing to suggest anything extreme. One way in which hitters can be considered “lucky” is by having a high percentage of the balls they put into play fall in for hits as opposed to being caught for outs, this is measured using BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Last year, Hill posted a .317 BABIP as opposed to his career average of .290 and last year’s major league average of .297. The disparity suggests that we might see Hill’s average dip from the .302 mark he posted this past season, but a slight drop in batting average shouldn’t hurt Hill’s value to any significant extent.

So Hill’s average may have been slightly inflated, but can the same be said of his on-base and slugging percentages?

Aaron Hill’s .360 OBP last year was the highest of his eight year major league career. His OBP certainly benefited to some extent from Hill’s good fortune on balls in play, but there is another reason for the spike. Namely, Hill put up the second best walk rate of his career.

A better eye at the plate last season for Hill shouldn’t be immediately disregarded as completely random, as players do tend to improve their plate discipline with experience. Additionally, Hill was intentionally walked seven times last year, nearly as many as he received in his 7 prior years of major league service combined. It’s difficult to speculate as to why Hill saw so many intentional walks, and whether this year’s lineup construction will present the same opportunities, but regardless, the increase cannot be said to be completely unrelated to Hill’s overall offensive improvement in general. While luck may have influenced Hill’s OBP last year to a certain extent, a good deal of the improvement can be linked to his improved plate discipline, and therefore, ability to draw walks.

While putting up career highs in AVG and OBP, Hill also slugged a career high .522 in 2012. Despite last year only being tied for his second best season to date as far as homeruns, Hill outperformed his previous best slugging percentage by over twenty percentage points. It is likely that Hill’s impressive slugging percentage was due, in part, to playing half his games in hitter friendly Chase Field. The good news for the Diamondbacks in this regard, though, is that he will continuing doing so throughout the length of his new extension.

In addition to park factors, there are various other reasons why Aaron Hill set a new career best in slugging last year. For one, Hill hit flyballs at a rate above his career average. Generally, when a player hits more flyballs in general, he also hits more homeruns as a result. In addition to hitting a greater quantity of flyballs, a higher percentage of those balls Hill was putting into the air were going for homeruns as well. Also, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, only four of Hill’s homeruns were of the “just enough” classification, meaning the vast majority of his homeruns were legitimate blasts. Whether it was due to a change of approach or some other factor, Aaron Hill hit more flyballs last year for longer distances, and his slugging percentage reaped the benefits.

The Bad

Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Thus far in the analysis, there has been a whole lot to like about Hill. Thus far in the analysis, however, only Hill’s 2012 season has been under consideration. While it’s true that a player’s most recent season should receive the most weight during analysis, the seasons preceding it must still be considered in the evaluation to paint an accurate picture of who a player really is.

Going by wins above replacement, Hill was a below league-average player in both 2010 and 2011. Needless to say, below league average is a steep dropoff from the position of second best second baseman in the majors. Because WAR includes defense and baserunning, it’s important to check there to see if either of those factored into the poor performances. In Hill’s case, they did not factor in, to any meaningful extent. Aaron Hill was a below league average player in 2010 and 2011 because of his bat.

So we’ve been informed that Aaron Hill put up extremely poor offensive numbers in 2010 and 2011, but why? Those two consecutive off-years were sandwiched by the two best seasons of his career, after all. The situation seems somewhat strange, so let’s take a closer look.

2010 saw Hill post a slash line of .205/.271/.394, a far cry from the career highs he recently posted in 2012. However, the subpar numbers were not entirely Hill’s fault. In fact, Hill was severely unlucky in 2010. That season saw Hill post a BABIP of .196, about 100 percentage points below both league average and his career average. The extremely low BABIP was largely a product of Hill hitting line drives at about half the rate of his career average (10.6% as opposed to 19.2% for his career). Neither number, the BABIP nor the LD%, can be sustained at a rate so low, so Hill’s performance that year could be said not only to have been poor overall, but also extremely unlucky.

In 2011, there was more bad luck for Hill, but it came in a different fashion. His BABIP returned to a level closer to his career average, and his line drive rate actually climbed above his career average. This time, the abberation was his HR/FB rate. HR/FB measures the percentage of fly balls hit that leave the park for homeruns versus ones that remain inside the fence. For his career, Aaron Hill has hit 8.4% of his flyballs for homeruns. In 2011, it was exactly half that number. Because only 4.2% of Hill’s flyballs left the park, naturally he saw a steep dropoff in power that season. As a result, though Hill’s batting average and on-base percentage were far better than they were in 2010, his slugging percentage was substantially lower. His homerun total dropped from 26 in 138 games in 2010 to 8 in 137 games in 2011.

Though hitters do influence their HR/FB via their strength, swing plane, etc., there is certainly still a decent amount of luck that factors into it. Hill likely had a mechanical or approach issue that negatively influenced his homerun rate, but it is likely that there was also a substantial amount of bad luck at play. As with his 2010 effort, Hill’s 2011 performance was not nearly as poor as it would initially seem.

The Outlook

September 25, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA

The story told by the snapshot of the previous few years of Hill’s career is one full of intrigue. Great 2012 and 2009 campaigns were sandwiched around very disappointing 2010 and 2011 efforts. So is Hill the elite player he was during the highs, or is he the below league average player he was during the lows? The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, but he is certainly closer to elite status than the contrary.

There was far more bad luck fueling Hill’s down years than there was good luck fueling his career year this past season. In the immediate future, with a little luck, Hill can be close to the player he was in 2012. As with all players, though, expect Hill’s performance to begin to decline as he advances closer to his mid-30′s. Still, even if Hill manages to be half as valuable of a player going forward as he was this past year, the new three year extension is a fantastic deal for the Diamondbacks.

If he keeps landing on that bent front knee and keeps delivering 230 innings a year, Felix might join the greats. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Felix Hernandez is, for the moment, the highest paid pitcher to ever toe the rubber. Starting pitching is the basic building block of all winning teams. Young, durable and highly talented starting pitchers are the rarest of commodities, and therefore the most expensive asset for any owner and GM.

Whether one thinks Felix “the King” Hernandez was worth his ransom or not is simply an opinion. And you know the old saying about opinions, they’re like rear ends, everybody has one. For the sake of this piece, lets look at only facts before we decide.

Since 1960, a total of 15 pitchers profiled similarly to Felix Hernandez using four common statistics: IP (innings pitched), K/9 (strikeouts per nine IP), ERA (earned run average) and WAR (wins above replacement). For the sake of comparison, the pitchers had to meet these criteria by their 28th birthday. Hernandez will turn 27 on April 8, 2013.

IP: 1400 plus
K/9: 7.0 plus
ERA: 3.50 or less
WAR: minimum of 25.0

Felix Hernandez stat line: 1620.1 IP   8.26 K/9   3.22 ERA   38.3 WAR

The good news for Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners organization is that many of the pitchers who met these criteria had long and brilliant careers. The following Hall of Fame pitchers who did so by their 28th birthdays were Bert Blyleven, Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins and Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan. Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez also met the criteria, Clemens is not in the Hall due to PED suspicion and Martinez will likely be a first ballot Cooperstown inductee.

On the other hand, the bad news are the names that meet the criteria but whose careers fall short. These names are the cautionary tales, the nightmare scenario for fans in the Emerald City; Dwight Gooden, Sam McDowell, Kevin Appier, Johan Santana, Jim Maloney, Jose Rijo and Mario Soto. These pitchers were all young studs, aces and future stars who never fulfilled their promise, mostly due to injury (Dwight Gooden for other reasons).

The jury is still out on his contemporary Matt Cain.

Of all the success stories, Hernandez seems to be closest to Fergie Jenkins. Jenkins was 115-81 with a 2.99 ERA through the season he turned 28. Over the next seven years of his career he would win 116 games, but began to fade near the end. He would finish his career with 284 wins and a 3.34 ERA and is a Hall of Famer.

The King also profiles a bit like Steve Carlton, who had a similar ERA (3.02) and WAR (41.7). “Lefty” was 117-92 the season that ended during his 28th birthday. Over the next seven years he pitched at least 247 innings and won 132 games for the Phillies, going 24-9 in the World Series winning 1980 season. He finished his career with 329 wins and a 3.22 ERA.

Jim Maloney’s 1623 IP, 3.12 ERA, 8.22 K/9 and 35.1 WAR were eerily similar to the numbers of Hernandez. Zduriencik might spit out his Starbucks latte when he realizes that Maloney won a total of 12 more games and pitched less than 250 innings after his 28th birthday. Jose Rijo led the Reds to a 1990 World Series upset of the Oakland A’s. Through his 28th year he had 1544.2 IP, 7.71 K/9 and a 3.13 ERA. After that Rijo would win just 16 games, pitching only 335 innings.

Kevin Appier also profiles similarly. His ERA of 3.28 and 38.6 WAR put him in close company with the King. Unfortunately, Appier tallied just 68 wins in the seven years after he turned 28. He would finish his career with an ERA of 3.74 and 6.9 K/9.

So is the Felix Hernandez worth all the money. Hindsight is always 20/20, we won’t know for sure until 2019. Historically, it’s a bit of a crapshoot, of course. the act of throwing a ball overhand is a violent, unnatural motion, many bodies have a finite number of fastballs and curveballs in them. But as the statistics prove, many of the truly great pitchers have been able to shoulder similar loads to Hernandez and have Hall of Fame careers. However, history is also littered with talented pitchers who were not able to finish off what were brilliant beginnings to their careers.

There really aren’t many players more valuable than Chase Headley.

I was perusing MLB Trade Rumors in search of Headley news when I noticed that the lovely Tim Dierkes projected Headley to get something like a four-year, $40-50 million extension with the Padres. It was at this point that I realized Chase Headley is one of the few players in baseball who has a legitimate chance to wind up underpaid relative to talent level. It’s certainly very rare, but it can absolutely happen in today’s game, and Headley has just the right skill set to cost himself money.

Headley’s obviously a very talented player who has been rumored to be on the verge of a true break out for years now, but his big year didn’t come until last season at age 28. Still right in the prime years of his career, Headley has a solid chance to build on the new level of production he’s established for himself. Perhaps part of the problem is that a concern exists that Headley will revert back to the player he was before the start of the 2012 season. Thing is, that’s not a problem when it comes to making a long-term commitment to the guy.

Sure, ideally Headley would pile on dominant season after dominant season going forward, but he’s still plenty valuable even if he doesn’t. He’s a truly unique player in that he has a skill set that should really be appreciated by almost any kind of fan but somehow isn’t anyway. Headley caught the attention of baseball fans in large part because of his 2012 power numbers, which were much more substantial than what any of us are used to seeing. Headley’s raw athletic ability and patient approach at the plate suggest he may have more big power seasons in him, and Petco is finally moving its fences in. Even if Headley only clears the wall a dozen times a season from here on out, though, he remains an asset thanks to his glove, solid base running, and sophisticated work at the plate.

FanGraphs’ UZR has consistently lauded Headley’s work at the hot corner, and scouts have done very little but concur that he can handle the position very well. Headley is also typically a smart base runner who makes very few mistakes, and his walk rates have only been escalating more and more as his career progresses. Third base simply isn’t the power hitter position it once was, and a player like Headley who deftly handles the position while ensuring a high OBP and virtually mistake-free fundamental play is very valuable.

Over the last three seasons, Headley has been worth 15.1 WAR according to FanGraphs, a very impressive total that translates to over $60 million of production through the site’s valuation system. That’s pretty incredible, but unless Utley logs eyebrow-raising baseball card numbers again, he may be doomed to be forever underrated or enter the minds of fans as a one hit wonder.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Andruw Jones was one of the best players of his era, it just doesn’t seem that way now. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

It really doesn’t seem like that long ago when Andruw Jones first made a name for himself as a member of the 1996 Atlanta Braves. Jones was a sensation at the time, just 19 years old and getting ample playing time against the Yankees in the World Series. There really isn’t a bigger stage than that, and Jones proved quickly that he was going to be something special, a player with as true a shot at the Hall of Fame as any could have at such a tender age. Jones homered twice in that series, but his quick October flash was a mere foreshadowing of what was to come.

The next season, Jones established himself as one of the finest defensive center fielders in baseball and hit 18 homers along the way. Things only got better, as Jones posted a 7.3 WAR campaign in his age-21 season, hitting .271/.321/.515 with 31 homers, 27 steals, and the usual superlative defense. Low walk rates aside, Andruw Jones was easily one of the best players in the sport by the time he could legally drink, and the ball kept on rolling. After his 467 PA in 1997, Jones proceeded to post the following FanGraphs WAR totals in his next nine seasons: 7.3, 7.3, 7.9, 5.4, 7.0, 5.9, 5.9, 8.3, and 6.3.

But that’s not all Jones did over those nine seasons. He also posted a 51-homer season in 2005, won 9 gold glove awards for his defensive work, played in five All-Star games, and was a 20-20 man three times. Even if his triple slash lines weren’t quite as impressive as other stars around the game, the overall package Jones brought to the field was one worthy of countless accolades, and at this point in his career the guy still hadn’t even reached 30 years of age.

But then something happened. Jones got off to a terrible start in 2007, and he barely found the strength to make anything of the season at all. The end result was an appalling .222/.311/.413 line at age 30; given Jones’ track record, though, it was hard to assume his career was truly on a downward path. The stink of the 2007 slump was enough to send Jones packing, so the star center fielder signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers and managed to get significantly worse, managing just a .505 OPS in 238 PA in 2008. While Jones made himself somewhat valuable as a bench masher later in his career, he never came close to rediscovering what made him so great for a solid decade.

Looking back on Jones’ career, it’s startling to see that he’s actually been worth 72.1 WAR. That figure makes him a serious Hall of Fame candidate, and puts him above plenty of guys who have made it in or have received serious backing. Andruw Jones may seem more like a punchline than an all-time great now, but just six short seasons ago he was an elite player at the top of his game. I highly doubt the man ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame, but his run of dominance afforded him a career line that includes 434 home runs, 10 gold glove awards, and a peak that wasn’t rivaled by many. That’s worth remembering.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Matsui finished his career a Ray but will always be remembered as a Yankee. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Fortunately for both Matsui and the Yankees, who were willing to take a chance on the player holding up well in the United States, things turned out about as well as anyone could have expected. In the wake of the recent news that the 38-year-old outfielder and designated hitter is hanging up his cleats for good, it’s worth remembering the many things Matsui did well that others before and after him never managed to accomplish. Even the legendary Ichiro never found a way to put up the surprisingly solid power numbers he did in Japan, but this wasn’t the case for Matsui. Armed with a sweeping left-handed swing and a compact stance, Matsui’s home run power far from disappeared when he reached the Yankees.

The transition wasn’t immediately successful for Matsui, as his first season in a Yankee uniform featured a pedestrian .287/.353/.435 line that didn’t pair well with his ineptitude in the outfield. Despite hitting 16 home runs and providing surface stat fans with 106 RBI to salivate over, Matsui’s first season amounted to nothing more than 0.2 WAR per FanGraphs thanks to limited initial power and an iron glove. Things got better right away at the plate for Matsui, as he enjoyed his best overall season on his second attempt. Matsui hit a robust .298/.390/.522 with 31 homers, and he was worth 3.0 WAR in spite of his continually bad defensive work.

That second season marked an important change in Matsui’s American game, as he was becoming increasingly patient at the dish. While the outfielder’s 9.1% walk rate in his debut season was nothing to sneeze at, he worked hard to boost that number to 12.9% in 2004. The trend would stick for Matsui, as he went on to clear the 11% mark four more times in the next six seasons. An improved approach led to improved results, as Matsui posted a .369 wOBA in 2005, pounded the ball when healthy in 2006 (.302/.393/.494 in 201 PA), and bashed 28 home runs in 2009.

The 2009 season was the last one in which Matsui was truly effective without having to really qualify his performance. After departing to the Angels in 2010 when the Yankees needed to go another direction, Matsui took on a DH role that he performed admirably enough in thanks to a 12% walk rate, but he once again found himself without a team when the season ended. Stints with the Athletics and Rays in 2011 and 2012 proved fruitless, and Matsui has now announced his retirement gracefully.

There’s no way Hideki Matsui ends up with his image enshrined in Cooperstown or anything that extravagant, but that doesn’t mean his accomplishments aren’t worth remembering. All in all, the Japanese slugger finished his career with a respectable .282/.360/.462 line, a .357 wOBA, and 175 career long balls. That’s miles better than his fellow NPB stars managed in terms of translated power, and that counts for something. Let’s hope Matsui’s success inspires more Japanese sluggers to employ his patient approach and join our favorite Major League teams with the same degree of value.

Here’s why the Angels are so dangerous: If Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton all hit 40 home runs each, as part of the AL West, LAA will win 100.

Here’s why the Dodgers are so dangerous: If Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke pitch like Cy Young contenders, and Matt Kemp hits like an MVP again, in the NL West, LAD will win 100.

Here’s why the Orioles are so dangerous: If they once again vastly outperform their run differential and win an inordinate amount of 1-run games, in the AL East, BAL will win 100.

Here’s why the Royals are so dangerous: If James Shields pitches a complete game shutout in every single one of his starts, in the AL Central, KC will win 100.

Here’s why the Blue Jays are so dangerous: If all the players they traded for this offseason play at an All-Star level, in the AL East, TOR will win 100.

Here’s why the Astros are so dangerous: If their opponents combine to forfeit a large number of baseball games, as part of the AL West, HOU will win 100.

Kyle writes baseball nonsense at The Trance of Waiting. You can follow him on Twitter @AgainstKyle.