Adrian Gonzalez is one of many Dodgers whose best years may be in the rearview mirror. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Well, there isn’t a strong argument to say the Dodgers aren’t the best team in a so-so division such as the NL West. That said, there also isn’t evidence that the older of the two Los Angeles teams is going to be able to run away with the division and take the postseason by storm. There is a lot to like about the Dodgers, but there are also plenty of reasons for trepidation, and it’s those reasons that serve to keep my expectations at bay.

One of the more troubling problems that plagues the Dodgers won’t be nearly as big an issue until future seasons, but the majority of the players that have been acquired are at advanced ages, make a ton of money, and may have already left their best years behind them. Adrian Gonzalez has refrained from drawing any walks or taking his previous approach at the plate for a couple of seasons now, Carl Crawford has been injured so long it’s hard to know what kind of player he’ll be, and Josh Beckett is wholly inconsistent. Then there’s Hanley Ramirez, whose game fell from MVP-level to something solid but decidedly less impressive in 2011 and hasn’t really recovered yet.

There are also still plenty of holes on the Dodger roster that haven’t been stuffed with cash. The rotation looks incredible with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the top, but the bullpen may not be an upper echelon unit even after general manager Ned Colletti overpaid just about every reliever he could find on the free agent market. Meanwhile, it’s hard to be convinced that the lineup will actually be one of baseball’s best. With Gonzalez, Crawford, and Ramirez all question marks to some degree, a lot of the work falls on the shoulders of the recently injury-prone star Matt Kemp. And what about the middle infield? Hell, what about the entire infield? It’s a weak unit by any metrics you want to use.

Maybe the most valid argument against the Dodgers as clear-cut favorites to win the 2013 NL West is also the simplest one: the roster isn’t markedly better than the competition. The reigning World Series champion Giants have plenty of holes as well, but it’s not abundantly clear that those holes are any more detrimental than the ones that are littered across the Dodgers’ roster. Sure, the Giants have to be worried about the starting rotation given Madison Bumgarner‘s late season collapse and Tim Lincecum‘s sudden descent into mediocrity. The lineup is still short on legitimate punch, too, but the Giants remain as intriguing a challenger for the NL West as their more celebrated rivals.

The Dodgers really have improved even if that improvement has come at the cost of millions upon millions of dollars and the devastation of a farm system, but they’re still going to have to fight to earn a playoff spot. There are plenty of other hungry teams vying for both the NL West and the myriad of Wild Card spots that now exist, so only time will tell if this recent L.A. spending spree pays off as handsomely as everyone in the organization hopes.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Author: Scott Andes

The 2012 Dodger Season was the ultimate rollercoaster ride for Dodger fans. From the dizzying highs, and excitement of April, and May to the injury filled middle months of the season. The exhilarating trades of August, all the way to the final depressing month of September. The 2012 Dodger season was unforgettable, but unfortunately the Dodgers came up just short in the end. When all was said and done, injuries, and poor hitting doomed the Dodger’s season. How can I possibly fit in everything that happened during the 2012 Dodger season in just one article? The 50^th anniversary season of Dodger Stadium would be a memorable one for Dodger fans. Thank god we were once again blessed with the beautiful voice of Vin Scully, who returned to the Dodger broadcast booth for an unprecedented 63^rd season. We also celebrated the 65^th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the Baseball color barrier.

Kemp looked like the best player in baseball before injuries cost him 56 games. Image: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

What went wrong for the Dodgers of course was all of the injuries. The Dodgers had an unbelievable amount of injuries. The only team that had more DL stints than the Dodgers was the Boston Red Sox. The Dodgers used 50 players this season. The Dodgers should have had Hawkeye Pierce in the dugout with the rest of the Mash 4077^th unit. The offense let the team down as well. The team just couldn’t hit. The Dodgers finished at the bottom of almost every offensive category. The Dodgers finished 29^th in home runs, 16^th in batting, and 26^th in runs scored. That’s just not acceptable. The Dodgers also finished 18^th in hitting with runners in scoring position. Kemp was the only Dodger to hit .300, and there was not a 100 RBI man in sight.

The pitching staff was a bright spot and carried the team most of the season, despite all of the injuries. The Dodgers finished with the third best staff ERA in the majors. (3.34 ERA).

Another bright spot for the Dodgers in 2012 was catcher A.J. Ellis. I couldn’t finish this season recap without mentioning him. The 31 year old played 133 games as the Dodger’s primary catcher, and won over Dodger fans with his hard work ethic, and clutch performances. This prompted one Dodger fan to create an A.J. Ellis facts tumbler page to document his rising folk lore legend. AJ finished the season batting .270, with a .373 OBP, and led the team with 64 walks. Most impressive was his power. AJ slugged 13 home runs, and driving in 52. He finished third on the team in both home runs and RBI.

For many Dodgers it was a season filled with injuries and frustrations. Team captain Matt Kemp only played in 106 games with various injuries suffered, including a left shoulder frayed labrum suffered from a death-defying crash into the center field wall at Coors Field in August. (The Bison still finished the season with a .303 average and 23 home runs). Some Dodgers found a new home during their first seasons in Blue like Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Jerry Hairston, and Mark Ellis. For other Dodgers it was a season of redemption. For instance, nasty Venezuelan set-up man Ronald Belisario (8-1 2.54 ERA), would came back from missing the entire 2011 because of visa issues caused by a drug problem to have a very strong 2012. Clayton Kershaw had another Cy Young type of season, although with less run support and fewer wins. Kershaw finished with a 14-9 record 229 whiffs, while leading the league in ERA (2.53). Other solid seasons included all-star right fielder Andre Ethier (20 HR 89 RBI), and Kenley Jansen (25 saves 2.35 ERA). Some Dodgers had a breakout season, like A.J. Ellis, who continued to be the emotional and spiritual compass of the team. Second year manager Don Mattingly would have his hands full in 2012. Indeed this was a most memorable year for the Boys in Blue.

A nine-player trade in the waning days of August means you are a serious player and that you have no patience. You want success and you want it now. The new ownership team of the Dodgers is proving that it ain’t foolin’ around and that money is no object to becoming a consistent power. Los Angeles is a big market team and I don’t know whether the ink is dry on the deal these owners made to acquire the team, but the attitude is obvious that if New York can bully its way into any personnel move that will fill a gap there’s no reason why the Dodgers can’t either.

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The Red Sox just aren’t a team that one typically associates with having fire sales. They’re the Red Sox. You know, the team that won a World Series championship in both 2004 and 2007, the massive market team that annually ranks among the game’s highest payrolls. It’s not often you see a team of such stature so obviously throw in the towel. It’s not often you see big-name players like Gonzalez and Crawford, both of whom signed long-term deals with the franchise not even two years ago, sent packing so quickly.

Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-US PRESSWIRE

For what it’s worth, even in the midst of the nightmare season Boston has had, they’re not even at all a bad baseball team. They play in the game’s toughest division, for one thing, so it’s difficult to truly assess their record, but you can look at their expected record based on run differential for a start: 66-60, the mirror opposite of where they currently stand. Such a record would have put them just 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot, tied with the Angels. You can also consider that they boasted one of the game’s best offenses, a unit that was second in the AL in runs scored (615) and fifth in OPS (.759). The pitching has certainly struggled at times, but even that hasn’t been all bad — cumulatively, Boston pitchers have accrued 12.2 WAR this season according to FanGraphs, a figure that places them at 17th among all 30 teams; nothing to be thrilled about, sure, but middle of the pack is pretty acceptable when you play in a tough division and have a good offense to boot.

Despite all the turmoil, all the in-house bickering, all the apparently chemistry issues, this is a team that has (to date) posted a plus-28 run differential in a very competitive division while also drawing over 2.5 million fans to home games this season, the fifth best support in the American League. This could easily have been a much different season in Boston, and even though so much went wrong, it’s not like the team was staggering and ready for an all out franchise collapse.

Regardless, the front office felt that now was the right time to pull the plug and go a new direction. The identity of the Red Sox will be significantly altered from this point, and keep in mind a franchise cornerstone has already been dealt earlier this season (Kevin Youkilis), even if he was a pending free agent anyway. With the recent payroll purge, this is now a team that currently projects to have just four eight-figure contracts to pay out in 2013: John Lackey, Jon Lester, and Dustin Pedroia. Obviously there are arbitration deals to work out and other financial developments that could come into play before that point, but next year’s reduced payroll should still represent a huge change for the franchise.

As difficult as it may have been to see this shift in focus coming prior to the season, it’s very obvious as to where the organization is now headed. A farm system that was ranked by pretty much every minor league authority as being at or near the median point just got a solid boost, and Boston will now wait patiently for their prospects to graduate to the major leagues. The franchise will attempt to build the next great Red Sox team from within rather than import established stars from other organizations at premium prices. This philosophical change is one I always appreciate, considering it’s a far more logical approach to take, so I’m not faulting them for making this deal (aside from the part where they acquired James Loney); I’m just extremely surprised by it.

Like I stated in the introduction paragraph, it’s just not often you see the Boston Red Sox elect to rebuild.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

Arizona Diamondbacks 5, Cincinnati Reds 3

The Cincinnati Reds didn’t lose a game in the standings to the Pirates, but they did fall to the Arizona Diamondbacks and lose star first baseman Joey Votto for a month in the process. Every run in the game was scored within the first three innings. Miguel Montero had a big night, going 3-4 with four RBI and hitting his ninth home run of the season. Wade Miley didn’t get a quality start, but he was good enough to pick up his 10th win of the season in his rookie campaign. Drew Stubbs had a pair of hits and drove in two runs for the Reds in the loss.

The Reds were dealt a big blow by learning that MVP candidate Joey Votto will miss significant time. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Miami Marlins 5, Washington Nationals 3

Hanley Ramirez crushed his 13th home run of the season, while Carlos Zambrano managed the very definition of a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) in a win against the division leading Nationals. Ryan Zimmerman continued to look more like his usual self, hitting his 10th home run of the season. A healthy and effective Zimmerman could go a long way in helping the Nationals secure the NL East.

St. Louis Cardinals 3, Milwaukee Brewers 2

The Cardinals trailed 2-0 entering the final inning before Matt Holliday and Allen Craig helped the team plate three runs to hold on for the win and cut a game off their NL Central deficit. Both starters performed well. Michael Fiers went seven scoreless, while Lance Lynn allowed one run and struck out 10 in seven innings. Corey Hart hit a solo home run in the loss.

Colorado Rockies 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 4

Dexter Fowler knocked in the game’s winning run with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth after a Pirates comeback tied the game in the top half of the inning. Pedro Alvarez homered for the 18th time this season, while Andrew McCutchen had two more hits to raise his batting average to an obscene .372.

Houston Astros 2, San Diego Padres 0

J.A. Happ hasn’t had much success since his rookie season, but he shut down the Padres for 6 1/3 innings while allowing only five baserunners. Houston first baseman Scott Moore drove in both runs of the game with sacrifice flies. Judging from the score, you don’t need me to tell you that no one on the Padres did anything worth mentioning.

Philadelphia Phillies 3, Los Angeles Dodgers 2

With another loss (that’s three straight), the Dodgers find themselves two games back in the NL West. Joe Blanton shut down the Los Angeles offense, pitching eight innings of two-run ball and striking out seven. Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins each homered to help the Phillies to victory. Juan Rivera had a pair of hits and scored a run for the Dodgers.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit Tigers 8, Los Angeles Angels 6

The Tigers have closed the gap in the AL Central to 2 1/2 games and have now won eight out of their last 10. Prince Fielder, Quintin Berry, and Delmon Young all had multi-hit games and drove in runs. Torii Hunter had four hits and three RBI, while Mark Trumbo hit his 25th home run of the season.

New York Yankees 6, Toronto Blue Jays 3

With the game tied at two in the eighth inning, Raul Ibanez hit a grand slam to give the Yankees a lead the held on to for the win. The Yankees are now 21 games over .500. Phil Hughes and Henderson Alvarez each had quality starts, while Adam Lind homered for the Jays.

Boston Red Sox 5, Chicago White Sox 1

Aaron Cook managed to keep the White Sox to one run (and zero earned) without even striking out a batter in seven innings. Adrian Gonzalez, who has been off to the slowest start of his career, homered and drove in four runs to help the Sox win Monday. The White Sox got a one-run, eight strikeout performance from Dylan Axelrod and three hits from Kevin Youkilis.

Cleveland Indians 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2

Zach McAllister pitched six innings, allowed one earned run, and picked up the win for Cleveland. He got help from the always underrated Shin-Soo Choo, who went 2-4 with two runs scored, one RBI, and a stolen base. Desmond Jennings clubbed his sixth home run of the season for the Rays, but it wasn’t enough.

Seattle Mariners 9, Kansas City Royals 4

The Mariners jumped on Jonathan Sanchez early and never looked back. Casper Wells and Justin Smoak took the Kansas City lefty deep, while Dustin Ackley added another bomb in the sixth. Wells wound up with a career-best five RBI in the game. Salvador Perez and Billy Butler each left the yard for the Royals, while the KC bullpen only surrendered two earned runs across 7 2/3 innings.

Minnesota Twins 19, Baltimore Orioles 7

The Minnesota offense exploded on the Orioles, scoring in six of the eight innings they stepped up to the plate. Justin Morneau and Ben Revere each had four hits, Denard Span drove in five runs, and Joe Mauer hit his sixth home run of 2012. Even the normally weak-hitting Jamey Carroll got into the act by reaching base four times and driving in a pair of runs. Mark Reynolds went 3-4 with a homer to assist Baltimore in losing by 12 instead of like 16.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

It’s all Bobby Valentine’s problem now and if you don’t think the .500 Red Sox (43-43) have problems, then why do they have guys wearing numbers like 77 and 66 in their lineup against their bitter rivals? Those are the kinds of numbers that get passed out in cattle-call tryouts. Or if Wayne Gretzky is playing for you.

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Wait, so Chase Headley's one of the best third basemen in the game? Mandatory Credit: Andrew Carpenean-US PRESSWIRE

Headley is right in the middle of what appears to be a career year. Per FanGraphs, Headley has been worth 4.9 WAR in 2010, 2.7 WAR in 2011, and 3.4 WAR so far in 2012. Those figures make him worth between $12.3 million and $19.8 million per season based on the FanGraphs model, and that’s an impressive accomplishment considering it’s almost a certainty Headley will never command a salary even approaching that level. To put this in perspective, by these metrics Headley has been the second-best third baseman in baseball in 2012. He finished fifth in 2010.

The main reason Headley could be had for less than his true value is because his skill set is not truly understood. Headley’s value is derived primarily from his abilities to get on base and play stellar defense at the hot corner. Headley’s career walk rate is north of 10%, which is solid, but he’s sitting at 13.9% so far this season and has been steadily improving since 2010. Headley’s ability to draw walks has led to on-base percentages of .374 in 2011 and .372 in the first half of 2012. This means if he has bad luck on balls in play, he’s going to be penalized less. Advanced defensive metrics, while sometimes erratic (especially in small sample sizes) always lean toward Headley being one of the better fielders at his position.

Getting on base no matter the method has certainly been more widely accepted as an extremely desirable trait since the whole Moneyball thing, but it still seems like some front offices are behind the times. Defense remains largely misunderstood, but Headley passes pretty much any test whether conducted by the eyes or the numbers. But the secret weapon any team picking up Headley may find themselves in possession of happens to be power.

Chase Headley was drafted by the Padres and has been in the organization ever since, so naturally he’s always played his home games in the ridiculously over-sized Petco Park. This is the ballpark that once made people think Chris Young was Jake Peavy‘s equal and Jason Marquis is worth employing at all. Needless to say, Headley’s power numbers have been much better when he’s not stepping up to the plate in the unfriendliest confines a hitter could imagine in the modern age.

For his career, Headley has hit .235/.326/.341 at home. You never really want a third baseman putting up a .666 OPS for both poor playing and Satan worshiping reasons, but it’s much more understandable when you realize just how impossible it is to hit in that place. Adrian Gonzalez was just about the only Padre to retain power while calling Petco his home park. To be fair, Headley has improved to the tune of a .760 home OPS in 2012. Headley on the road, though, is a clear cut awesome third baseman to have from an offensive standpoint. He’s hit .299/.366/.445 away from Petco, good for a very solid .811 OPS. Just now hitting his prime, Headley may even have more in the tank should he call somewhere else home in the near future. After all, his road OPS has risen to the .850-.860 level over the past two seasons.

While Chase Headley is far from the biggest name we’ve seen on the trading block this summer, perhaps his stock should be much higher. For all the positive mainstream press the Marlins somehow got for picking up the gigantic shell of Carlos Lee, a Headley trade would likely slide under the radar. Well, it shouldn’t. Root for your team to trade for Chase Headley, because he’s a fantastic player and should have been a no-brainer to represent San Diego in the All-Star game next week.

If Brian’s work strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

He's back!! Anthony Rizzo has been called up by the Cubs. (Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

Rizzo should be in uniform today with the Cubs.  He was pulled out of the lineup of his Triple-A game for Iowa yesterday.  This year, Rizzo has duplicated his Pacific Coast League performance of last year.  In 2011, Rizzo hit .331/.404/.652 with 26 home runs.  This year in Iowa, he hit .345/.408/.702 with 23 home runs.

The Cubs have shifted Bryan LaHair to right field for the most part to make room for Rizzo without having to deal the slugging 29-year old.  With Rizzo, LaHair, and Castro it would seem the Cubs have the first three parts of their rebuilding process in place.  All three look to be major contributors for years to come.  However, Rizzo will have to prove he can hit Major League pitching.

Last season in 49 games, Rizzo hit .141/.281/.242 with one home run.  He struggled adjusting to Petco Park’s size and the marine layer in San Diego.  Yet, on the road, Rizzo still hit a meager .118/.247/.158.

Rizzo will be reunited with names like Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.  Epstein drafted Rizzo while with Boston.  Rizzo eventually was traded to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.  Jed Hoyer was GM of the Padres when San Diego shipped Rizzo to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner.  Rizzo and Epstein, along with others from the old Red Sox regime, have a close relationship.  When Rizzo was battling cancer, Epstein provided comfort and support.  Rizzo should perform better in Chicago if for no other reason than he is comfortable.

For more on the Cubs, be sure to check out Cubbies’ Crib.  

During the off season I discussed with a couple of fellow Yankee fans the idea of the Yankees signing Albert Pujols who was a free agent.  They asked where Pujols would play since the Yankees already had a first baseman, Mark Teixeira, signed to an expensive long term contract.  I said that the Yanks could move one of them to right field and not pick up the option on Nick Swisher whom I did not like anyway.  They did not want to move Pujols even though he had been a starting left fielder in his second and third seasons.  I said OK, then move Teixeira to the outfield.   Teixeira has played 32 MLB games in the outfield.  They reacted as if I was a complete idiot for suggesting that a baseball player might be capable of changing positions, you know like Adrian Gonzalez has done this season for Boston, moving from first base to the outfield in eight games to get an extra bat at first base.

Undaunted I brought up something that I had long suspected but had never mentioned to anyone else.  I said that aside from the pitcher and catcher and allowing for handedness, i.e., a southpaw at shortstop or third base, you could pick the names out of a hat for defense and fans would not see much difference in the quality of play.  Now I was really under attack.  Moving Derek Jeter a few feet further back, from shortstop to left field, would cost the Yankees 30 runs they said.  I persisted but they were not persuaded.

Now there are players such as Yankee Jayson Nix who are actually capable of playing adequately at multiple infield positions and also in the outfield.  How ever can they do it?  Are they contortionists, ventriloquists, sorcerers?  Back when I attended games and even showed up early enough to watch pre-game practice I saw players working out around second base turning double plays.  Turns out they were reserve outfielders just fooling around.

Here’s my hypothesis.  Let’s say we draw names out of a hat for MLB regulars, not multiple position players like Jayson Nix.  But we make it a pool of players who are not very recognizable.  Then we put them into those old style uniforms from a hundred years ago with no names or numbers.  No names flashed on the scoreboard or on TV.  I maintain that fans casually watching would not notice that these MLB players had been randomly placed at their defensive positions.

Most plays are routine.  MLB players should make 90% of them.  Good softball players should make most of them.  It’s the consistency that matters, being able to make the 90% of plays often enough to be MLB caliber.  Infielders can catch fly balls in the outfield. Outfielders can catch grounders and throw out runners.

One reason I think this is possible is that baseball remains the least specialized of the three major American team sports and that skill at one position readily translates to skill at another.  I think it’s also because the players are not so different in size.  Here are the Yankee infielders:

Robinson Cano 6’0″ 210
Derek Jeter 6’3″ 195
Alex Rodriguez 6’3″ 225
Mark Teixeira 6’3″ 215

Even the shortstop is 6’3″.  Now the outfielders:

Curtis Granderson 6’1″ 195
Nick Swisher 5’11″ 200
Bret Gardner 5’10″ 185

The infielders are actually bigger than the outfielders.

But the differences are not great, not so great that they could not reasonably change positions and perform adequately.  Imagine trying that in the other sports.

Switch a 6’2″ point guard and a 7′ center in basketball.  Or in football switch a nose tackle with a free safety.  Those are big changes, literally and figuratively.

The big issue would be exchanging outfielders and infielders.  Most people would agree that moving infielders to other infield positions is not that big a deal.  Many infielders start out as shortstops and move to second or third because they are not quite good enough to play short.  Moving outfielders around is pretty simple.

But could you imagine Curtis Granderson playing second base?  Or Robinson Cano center field?  Yes.  It’s not nearly as much of a stretch as the basketball or football examples.

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You can follow the personal baseball blog of Kenneth Matinale here: Radical Baseball