Nov 29, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves president John Schuerholz and manager Fredi Gonzalez announce the signing of outfielder B.J. Upton during a press conference at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves have made a baseball trade. And the Upton brothers are getting together! Justin Upton will be joining brother B.J. in Atlanta along with third-baseman Chris Johnson, in exchange for the versatile Martin Prado, pitcher Randall Delgado, shortstop prospect Nick Ahmed, third-base prospect Brandon Drury, and pitching prospect Zeke Spruill. There are a lot of moving parts to be discussed here, and we’ll leave that kind of crack analysis to those who actually know what they’re talking about. I’m here to analyze the Upton Brothers angle, and what exactly they might be up to now that they’re together on the same team. Yesterday, Bossman Junior took to Twitter to express his hope that him and Justin might one day share a Major League outfield. Now that the dream has become a reality, the two brothers no doubt have a lot of big plans on how to best spend their time together.

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October 5, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Former president Jimmy Carter attends the 2012 National League wild card playoff game between the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Each team has a stove, you see, and each team likes their stove to be hot. Hot stoves are better than cold stoves. Hot stoves are active. Hot stoves labor for a time and then produce delicious results. And it is presently critical stove time. It just so happens that our current season is the hot stove season. The natural gas is flowing, the pilot lights are lighting, the ranges are warming, soon to be blazing. Teams are cranking the lever to “High” and ripping the knob off. Teams are igniting the flame and letting it run rampant throughout the kitchen. The hotter the stove, the better, so whose stove is the hottest stove? Let us examine a selection of choice team appliances and decide for ourselves.

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Multiple outlets are reporting that the Atlanta Braves have reached an agreement to sign free agent B.J. Upton. The deal is said to be for five years and be worth $75.25 million overall. Upton will replace fellow free agent Michael Bourn in Atlanta’s outfield, though he’s not the lead-off type hitter than Bourn is.

Upton has had streaks of elite-level offense, but posted a sub-.300 OBP in 2012. Image: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Upton brings elite defense and a combination of power and speed. He connected for a career-best 28 home runs in 2012 while swiping 31 bases. It was the fifth consecutive season of better than 30 steals for Upton, whose career has spanned eight big league seasons; all with Tampa Bay.

The Rays offered Upton a one-year qualifying offer, which was declined by the outfielder. As a result, the Rays will be eligible to receive an extra first round draft choice. Atlanta will surrender their first round pick, but that selection does not automatically becomes property of the Rays.

Upton was viewed by most as the second or third option as far as free agent center fielders, depending on how you classified Josh Hamilton. The $15 million average annual value Upton will get looks elevated if you only examine his offensive numbers. Certainly Upton has underachieved in his career to this point, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had some good numbers and his defensive contributions have been elite since moving to center field in 2007.

A true five-tool talent, Upton has been streaky at the plate. The Braves are betting that a change of scenery and a new voice in his ear will help Upton reach his full potential. At age 28, he still has plenty of prime seasons remaining and will still be just 33 at the end of this deal, which will set him up for another sizable contract before his career ends.

With Upton off the board, the center field market could begin to move quickly. Bourn has drawn interest from Washington and Philadelphia and could see a contract in excess of $100 million. Secondary stars like Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino will now see their own markets become more defined. Upton had been drawing interest from the Giants and Phillies and both of those clubs have been linked to Pagan and Victorino as well.

B.J. Upton does a lot of things well, just not all at the same time. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Upton’s 2012 season is the perfect example of why he can be such a frustrating player. Despite his speed, Upton has always hit for a low batting average. He’s long been able to offset that issue by drawing plenty of walks, but in 2012 that skill failed to show itself. Maybe he was trying to put up more substantial power numbers with free agency looming, but the outfielder saw his walk rate dip to 7.1% after clearing 11% in four of the previous five seasons.

Upton’s brand new hacking approach is eyebrow-raising to be sure, but he did slug with more authority than he had in a while. His 2012 season boasted 28 home runs (a new career high), the second best ISO rate of his career (.208), and the second best slugging percentage of his career (.454). At the dish, Upton has the tools to hit for power and draw enough walks to get on base at a high rate despite all of his strikeouts. That’s a valuable skill set, but 2007 marks the only year in which everything came together at the same time. His power failed him from 2008 to 2011, and now he’s not taking walks.

Offensively, it seems like any team that signs Upton is just going to have to accept that he has a chance to help them in terms of both power and patience, but that his volatile fluctuations mean both may not happen at once. He’s the rare player who wouldn’t surprise many by posting either a .700 OPS or a .900 OPS. He might have a .380 OBP, but he might also fall short of the .300 mark. He is, however, still in his prime; Upton will have every opportunity to put all of his tools in the same bag and become a star again in his new home.

Aside from his mixed results as a hitter, Upton is always going to be valuable because of the other things he does on a baseball field. He’s been a consistently solid outfielder and base runner, and as a result he has been worth at least 3.3 WAR per FanGraphs in five of his six full seasons. That’s a very valuable player to have, especially considering he can handle center field. The whole package makes Upton a player who could legitimately earn $15 million per season just by continuing to do roughly what he has been for the past few seasons, and that’s not taking into account the possibility that he breaks out as he approaches 30.

Maybe the best way to look at Upton is as a player who will likely earn the contract he gets even if it isn’t through traditional methods. Maybe he’ll drive his new fans insane by swinging and missing at balls above his head, but he’ll also be one of the best base runners in the league and handle most everything that comes his way in center field. Plus, with so much power and patience potential, he may have another 2007 in him yet at the plate. B.J. Upton may not be a traditional star, but he isn’t far from being a weird one.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

The Braves are still in the mix to re-sign Michael Bourn, but his price tag is thought to be considerably higher than that of Upton. Angel Pagan remains an option, as does Josh Hamilton, though the Braves don’t consider themselves players for Hamilton at this point.

In a market flush with center field talent, it’s Upton who seems to be getting the most attention. Image: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Atlanta is just one of the clubs hot for Upton, who is rumored to be meeting with the Giants at some point this week. Upton has also visited Philadelphia and the Phillies are thought to view Upton as their top choice. Upton has also been mentioned as a fit in TTexas should the Rangers be unable to keep Hamilton.

Washington is also looking at center fielders in case they cannot re-sign first baseman Adam LaRoche, but Upton’s right handed bat wouldn’t be the best fit for a heavily right handed Nats lineup.

The center field shuffle may also feature Shane Victorino, who has drawn interest from as many as a dozen clubs so far. Victorino is widely considered the fifth-best option on the free agent market this year, which shows how deep the pool of center fielders is. Ordinarily, someone in Victorino’s position may have to wait until late in the Winter to sign, but he’s been drawing interest from teams like Cleveland that wouldn’t be involved in the bidding for any of the bigger names this year. If the switch-hitter finds a deal he likes – and he’s looking for a multi-year offer – he may jump at the chance to find regular work quickly.

The Giants are still considered to be the front-runner to keep Pagan, but they’ve already met with Bourn and will meet with Upton. Pagan figures to be the least expensive of the bunch and he’s a known commodity in the San Francisco clubhouse, which makes him their top choice.

Hamilton is a wild card here both because he’s probably a left fielder more than a center fielder at this point and because his contract is likely to reach $25 million per year and that’s enough to price him out of the conversation for most clubs. If he signs with someone like Boston, for example, as a left fielder, that opens up Texas as a team that now enters the fray for Upton or Bourn.

Bourn’s market is less defined than Upton’s so far. He’s a dynamic talent and considered a better all-around player to Upton, but he’s also a few years older and relies on speed more than Upton does. He’s been rumored to be seeking five years and $100 million while Upton’s price range likely lands closer to five years and $75-85 million.

The Braves will wind up signing one of the two, you’d have to figure, but it’s interesting that they seem to prefer Upton to the man who has patrolled center for the past couple of years at Turner Field. The Rangers have also been mentioned more often in connection with Upton and only the Nationals seem to be favoring Bourn between the two.

Bourn signing a deal with Washington would be the best thing that could happen for Upton’s free agency, as then he could sit back and have his choice between as many as three high-revenue club bidding against each other for his services.

If things break just right, Upton could be the biggest winner of a deep and talented center field pool.

Hamilton can expect baseball’s next mega-contraact. Image: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

While Josh Hamilton has an MVP under his belt already and will have another top-five finish in 2012. Hamilton will certainly draw serious interest and fierce competition during the Hot Stove season, but teams will be wary of handing out a contract of significant length to a guy who often misses time due to injury.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton has averaged 148 games per season over the past five years while Hamilton has averaged only 129. He’s also a full three years younger than Hamilton.

It was Upton, not Hamilton or any other slugger, who lead major league baseball in home runs during the month of September and with three games to go, Upton has already posted a career-high total of 28 bombs this season. If he can club two more in the next three days, he’ll have his first-ever 30-30 campaign.

There is no doubt that Hamilton’s personal history will, at the very least, give some owners pause. Hamilton has had a couple of very public relapses in his battles with drug and alcohol addiction; something Upton has never had an issue with. Hamilton is a solid defender and runs pretty well, but Upton is an elite defender and runs like a gazelle.

Where the two aren’t particularly close is at the plate.

Upton’s been red-hot for the Rays, but he’s no Hamilton at the plate. Image: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

While Upton has ridden a scorching month to a career-best home run total, he’s sitting on a .245/.299/.457/.756 line in 2012, which is nearly identical to his .758 career OPS. Hamilton, meanwhile, has, in different seasons, lead the league in batting average (.359 in 2010), RBI (130 in 2008), and is currently leading the league in homers this year with 43. Hamilton owns a .943 OPS in 2012, which is higher than his career mark of .915.

This isn’t a  small difference in production, it’s a chasm. And that chasm will price Hamilton out of most markets, leaving the less expensive Upton as the player with more suitors.

There has been speculation that Upton could get something in the neighborhood of $12 million per year for five, maybe six years. It’s hard to imagine Hamilton getting a contract of similar length, but the average annual value will likely come close to doubling what Upton gets.

The Boston Red Sox are a club that immediately jumps to mind when thinking about the upcoming free agent period. Boston dealt away a pair of $20+  million men in Adrian Gonzalez and Upton’s former Tampa Bay teammate, Carl Crawford. Hamliton is a better fit in Boston due both to the obvious opening in left field, which would play better into Hamilton’s defensive strengths, and that the Sox can easily afford a massive contract like the one Hamilton will command.

The interesting thing is that if Hamilton were to leave the Rangers, Texas could be in play for Upton as his replacement. The Rangers have some major payroll decisions to make this Winter and there is a lot of talk that maybe they might be ready to move on from Hamilton. By swapping Upton for Hamilton, the Rangers would see an upgrade defensively plus save themselves roughly $8-10 million per season.

Upton is still young enough that teams could convince themselves that he may still improve. It’s fools gold, however.

B.J. Upton is a ultra-talented player who seems to always under-perform. His baserunning and defense are great, but his bat is far too streaky to be counted upon as a elite player. Hamilton may miss 25 games or so per year, but his bat will more than make up for the lost time.

Even with Upton’s monster finish to the season, he isn’t in Hamilton’s class. He’ll still get a very rich contract, but my guess is the likelihood of a club having some buyer’s remorse is a lot higher with Upton than it is with Hamilton, even with a significant difference in money.

The Philadelphia Phillies crawled back from the dead this season and managed to become relevant in the NL Wild Card race down the stretch. The bulk of the success this season came after the club traded away outfielders Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. Those moves coincided with the return to health of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and, according to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the 2013 version of the club could have a much different look.

Listen to manager Charlie Manuel, and you can envision a team with Chase Utley at third base, Freddy Galvis at second base, a big-ticket free agent playing center field, and at least one quality free-agent addition to the bullpen.

The Phillies are hoping that moving Utley to third keeps him on the field more in 2013. Image: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

The plan is that the Phillies would like to upgrade their team defense while also supplementing the lineup. Moving Utley on third on a full-time basis would allow for Freddy Galvis to take over a second. Galvis began the season at the position for the Phillies in 2012, filling in for the injured Utley. Unfortunately for the Phillies, Galvis suffered a back injury and wound up suspended for PED use. If drugs enhanced his performance, Philadelphia might be in real trouble when he comes back clean next season, as he posted a mere .226/.254/.363 line in 200 plate appearances.

While Galvis has a slick glove that will be an upgrade on the limited range of Utley at second, Utley’s move to third would bring an end to Placido Polanco‘s second tour of duty in the City of Brotherly Love. Polanco is in the final season of a three-year deal signed following the 2009 season and, when he’s been healthy, he’s been a steady performer. Polanco has won a gold glove at third, so Utley likely represents a downgrade at the position, but his bat more than makes up for the difference. The difference between Polanco and Galvis, however, is more like a chasm.

Utley’s hip is likely to continue to cause him problems, and a move to third means much less movement defensively. The choice isn’t really as simple as Galvis or Polanco, it’s probably more “Utley and Polanco until Utley gets hurt and then Galvis and Polanco.” The Phillies are hoping that by shift Utley across the diamond, they can keep him healthier and in the lineup more going forward. And that makes them a better club, no mater how you slice it.

As far as the “big-ticket free agent” in centerfield, Brookover mentions Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton by name for the role and both would be excellent, though expensive choices. The Phillies saved $14 million by dealing pence to the Giants and will have $6 million coming off the books from the Polanco contract, so there is money to spend despite a payroll that already features four $20 million men. Upton and Bourn are going to be two of the bigger names available this winter and while each will command a salary upwards of $10 million per year, hat should fit into Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s budget.

I am psyched for what should be an amazing second half of the baseball season. To preview the second half, I have decided to do five predictions for the second half in this wonderful MLB season.

The first half for the National League was extremely predictable, as I am pretty sure everyone predicted to see the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies at the bottom of the NL East, the Pittsburgh Pirates winning the NL Central, and the Los Angeles Dodgers contending most of the season with, arguably the best player in baseball, Matt Kemp on the disabled list.

Los Angeles Dodgers hits during the 2012 Home Run Derby at Kauffman Stadium, he will return to the Dodgers lineup tonight. (Image: Scott Rovak/USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE)

Of course, in the American League, everyone saw Mike Trout carrying the Los Angeles Angels to the postseason, the Baltimore Orioles being contenders and looking to be buyers. It was pretty obvious to everyone when the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder that the AL Central would be led by the Chicago White Sox at the mid point in the season.

For the second half, I am going to tackle some things I see happening. Any predictions made about what will happen in a baseball season should be considered bold, because, well as we saw in the first half, baseball is the most unpredictable sport. Too much goes on every season for anyone to ever be right about their predictions.

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June 13, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain (middle) is showered with beer from his teammates after throwing a perfect game against the Houston Astros at AT

June 1 Johan Santana became the first Met pitcher to throw a no-hitter: 8-0 against St. Louis in New York.  Met manager Terry Collins let Santana throw 134 pitches even though Santana missed the entire 2011 season with a bad arm.  It is inconceivable that Collins would have let Santana throw 134 pitches in any other regular season circumstance.  Collins must have valued that no-hitter beyond its actual value to the team.  With the Mets leading 8-0 after seven innings, Santana did not need to pitch the last two innings.  Santana benefited from a missed call by an umpire on a ball that clearly hit the foul line and would have been a hit.

June 13 in Tampa Met knuckleball pitcher RA Dickey threw 106 pitches and allowed one hit in nine innings as the Mets beat the Rays 9-1.  B.J. Upton was awarded a single in the first inning on what appeared to be an error by Met thirdbaseman David Wright.  Collins wants the Major Baseball League (MBL) to overturn the official scorer’s decision.  Aside from Collins possibly being a bit unbalanced, he must value a no-hitter way more than the accomplishment deserves.

Matt Cain of the Giants pitched a perfect game June 13: 10-0 against Houston.    Cain threw 125 pitches and the Giants led 10-0 after five innings, so like Santana, Cain could have been pulled much earlier except that his manager, Bruce Bochy, wanted to give him a chance to throw the perfect game.  Cain benefited from a great diving catch by his right fielder and a good catch by his center fielder in very deep left center.

Are these pitching oddities such a big deal?  June 14 a poll was put up asking fans to choose the most impressive pitching performance.  Among the choices were a 20 strike out game and the perfect game thrown by Don Larsen of the Yankees in Yankee Stadium against the Brooklyn Dodgers in game five of the 1956 World Series.  The Yanks won 2-0 on a solo home run by Mickey Mantle in the fourth and a single by Hank Bauer in the sixth.  Larsen threw 97 pitches.  Yankee manager Casey Stengel needed to win that game as the series was tied 2-2.  Stengel was not concerned whether Larsen got credit for a perfect game, a term with which Larsen was not even familiar after the game.  Larsen benefited from a great catch by Mantle in left center against Gil Hodges and a ricochet off third baseman Andy Carey to shortstop Gil McDougald who threw out Jackie Robinson. Also, Duke Snider hit a long foul home run.

In 1999 I attended the perfect game at Yankee Stadium by David Cone against the Montreal Expos.  Remember them?  The Yankees were holding a Yogi Berra Day and for some reason invited Larsen to attend.  It was great theater as Cone battled oppressive heat and a rain delay.  Cone benefited from a great catch by Paul O’Neill early in the game.

The way to evaluate a no-hitter is to determine the batting average of the players in the game.  For a perfect game use the on base percentage.  More difficult is to determine which of these to use for each individual batter: career, season, one calendar year, one month, one week, …?

But a massive number of strike outs seems to me to be much more of an accomplishment for the pitcher who actually retired those batters without any help.  Even then other circumstances need to be considered.  Outs on the bases reduces the number of batters to be retired as would a losing effort in which the pitcher did not pitch the bottom of the ninth inning.  Also, how many times did the pitcher face opposing pitchers?  And how strike out prone were the batters?  A small hitter’s park helps boost the strike out total as it is more difficult for batters to foul out and long flies either hit or go over close fences in the outfield rather than get caught on the warning track.

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You can follow the personal baseball blog of Kenneth Matinale here: Radical Baseball

Should

June 1st. Should the team win their appeal with the commissioner’s office, they will have two no-hitters in their history; both controversial.

Johan Santana’s no-hitter should have been a one-hitter after replays showed a foul ball was clearly in play. The third base umpire, Adrian Johnson, ruled what should have been a double by Carlos Beltran foul even though the ball hit the chalk line. Santana went on to finish the no-hitter. Now, the Mets are appealing a one-hit, dominating performance by R.A. Dickey last night. They aren’t appealing the performance but the official scorer’s ruling.

In the first inning, B.J. Upton hit a ball to David Wright. Wright had to field the ball with his bare hand, but he wasn’t able to field it cleanly. Upton reached first safely and it was ruled an infield single. Dickey didn’t allow another hit the rest of the game.

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