Chase Headley is easily the most valuable player on the Padres roster but a thumb injury could keep him out of the Opening Day lineup. (Image Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

Over the weekend San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley jammed his left thumb trying to break up a double play. Initially it appeared that he would simply miss a few days, but now it would appear as though there’s a chance that the team’s most valuable hitter may be in danger of missing Opening Day.

Headley is coming off of one of the top overall offensive seasons in Padres history, a year in which he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 HR, 31 2B, and a league-leading 115 RBI. He reached base safely in 146 games, eclipsing a franchise record held by none other than Tony Gwynn. Headley walked a career high 86 times, finished 5th in NL MVP voting, was named NL Player of the Month in both August and September, and took home both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award. For a Padres lineup without much offensive star power, Headley’s a key force in the middle.

Yet, Headley’s potential absence from the lineup spells trouble for the franchise for reasons beyond the lack of offensive punch. San Diego is bound to struggle early without their key hitter in the lineup which, depending on how much time he’ll miss, could be detrimental to any shred of hope they have for competing this season. However, with the Padres expected to struggle this season there has already been speculation that they could look to move Headley before July’s trade deadline. Him missing time could seriously hamper those plans.

San Diego has a pair of internal options should Headley hit the DL. Logan Forsythe and Jedd Gyorko were both expected to come into camp to battle for the team’s opening at second base. Forsythe, a strong defender, has been sidelined for the past two weeks with plantar fasciitis which has all but taken him out of the running. Gyorko, arguably the team’s top offensive prospect, appears to be the favorite to start at second. Both players have spent the bulk of their careers at third, meaning it shouldn’t be an issue asking them to move back over to the position, but it would subsequently create an additional hole in the lineup unless they are both fully healthy at the start of the year.

There really aren’t many players more valuable than Chase Headley.

I was perusing MLB Trade Rumors in search of Headley news when I noticed that the lovely Tim Dierkes projected Headley to get something like a four-year, $40-50 million extension with the Padres. It was at this point that I realized Chase Headley is one of the few players in baseball who has a legitimate chance to wind up underpaid relative to talent level. It’s certainly very rare, but it can absolutely happen in today’s game, and Headley has just the right skill set to cost himself money.

Headley’s obviously a very talented player who has been rumored to be on the verge of a true break out for years now, but his big year didn’t come until last season at age 28. Still right in the prime years of his career, Headley has a solid chance to build on the new level of production he’s established for himself. Perhaps part of the problem is that a concern exists that Headley will revert back to the player he was before the start of the 2012 season. Thing is, that’s not a problem when it comes to making a long-term commitment to the guy.

Sure, ideally Headley would pile on dominant season after dominant season going forward, but he’s still plenty valuable even if he doesn’t. He’s a truly unique player in that he has a skill set that should really be appreciated by almost any kind of fan but somehow isn’t anyway. Headley caught the attention of baseball fans in large part because of his 2012 power numbers, which were much more substantial than what any of us are used to seeing. Headley’s raw athletic ability and patient approach at the plate suggest he may have more big power seasons in him, and Petco is finally moving its fences in. Even if Headley only clears the wall a dozen times a season from here on out, though, he remains an asset thanks to his glove, solid base running, and sophisticated work at the plate.

FanGraphs’ UZR has consistently lauded Headley’s work at the hot corner, and scouts have done very little but concur that he can handle the position very well. Headley is also typically a smart base runner who makes very few mistakes, and his walk rates have only been escalating more and more as his career progresses. Third base simply isn’t the power hitter position it once was, and a player like Headley who deftly handles the position while ensuring a high OBP and virtually mistake-free fundamental play is very valuable.

Over the last three seasons, Headley has been worth 15.1 WAR according to FanGraphs, a very impressive total that translates to over $60 million of production through the site’s valuation system. That’s pretty incredible, but unless Utley logs eyebrow-raising baseball card numbers again, he may be doomed to be forever underrated or enter the minds of fans as a one hit wonder.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

2012 was a season of change in San Diego. Manager Bud Black began the season with a smattering of veterans in an otherwise young roster. It didn’t take long for some of the veterans to get pushed out of the way. Shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson may have been above average defenders, but an already offensively-challenged club couldn’t afford to carry a pair of weak bats in their lineup. By mid-season, both Bartlett and Hudson had been released and replaced by exciting youngsters like Alexi Amarista, Logan Forsythe, and Everth Cabrera.

The Padres dipped into their prospect pool and plucked out catcher Yasmani Grandal mid-season after Nick Hundley performed so poorly they had almost no choice. Grandal, who came over with Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger, and Edinson Volquez in the Mat Latos deal, wasted little time in showing why he’s been ranked among the top prospects in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Hundley and platoon-mate John Baker combined to see just under 400 at bats behind the plate for the Padres in 2012. In that time, they totaled just three home runs, 36 RBI, and 104 total bases. Grandal clubbed eight home runs, matched their RBI total with 36, and walked nearly as often as he struckout in just 192 at bats.

Headley and Grandal should be the cornerstones of the Padres offensive attack for years to come. Image: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

As much as the young and talented hitters like Grandal made an impact, the breakout season belonged to third baseman Chase Headley. The subject of seemingly eternal trade rumors, Headley became an offensive force in 2012. In parts of five seasons, Headley had amassed a total of 35 home runs and 204 RBI coming into 2012. This season, Headley exploded with 31 homers and a league-leading 115 RBI. While Headley could have fetched a king’s ransom in trade before the season, his value has now never been higher to the Padres.

Headley lead the offensive charge along with slugging left fielder Carlos Quentin. Acquired via trade prior to the season, Quentin was supposed to play well enough that the Padres could land a couple of prospects in a mid-season trade. What ended up happening, however, is that Quentin hit so well at Petco Park that the San Diego native would up signing an extension to stay with the Padres.

Pitching is seemingly never a problem for the Padres given the extremes of Petco Park and 2012 was no exception. Heading into the off-season, however, only Volquez and Clayton Richard have assured themselves of rotation spots. If there is money to be spent during the Winter, one can expect it to be focused on a pitching market that always figures to offer a handful of inexpensive veterans who could benefit from spending a season in a pitcher’s haven. While the club may have to overpay to land a top-tier hitter, they typically have free agent pitchers knocking on their door begging to pitch for the Padres.

For the first time in a long time, the San Diego Padres have the feel of a club that can build not only through the development of minor leaguers, but that can compete in the free agent market as well. John Moores had been trying to sell the club to former Diamondbacks COO Jeff Moorad and all appeared set until the rest of the baseball owners decided not to approve the sale. Moorad’s financing was flimsy, they decided, and after the Frank McCourt situation with the Dodgers, baseball didn’t want another owner who couldn’t foot the bill when needed.

It may have been the best thing that could have happened for Padres fans.

Ironically, it was a former Dodger owner, Peter O’Malley, who joined a group in a successful bid to buy the Padres for a sum of $800 million later in the season. With backing of the O’Malley group, San Diego immediately began extending some core players. Players that, without the sale, would have surely been traded away. There is now money available to augment a surprisingly good roster.

San Diego enters the off-season with just one impending free agent in starter Jason Marquis. There are, however, a dozen players who will see raises through arbitration, including Headley, Volquez, and Richard. Those commitments mean the modest Padres payroll will go up even without looking outside the organization, but all indications are that the Padres ownership group will spend to keep Headley, just as they did with Quentin and closer Huston Street.

For more on the Padres, visit Chicken Friars.

left hand, the rumors started flying.  Would the Yankees go out and seek a third baseman on the trade market to fill the hole?  Would they specifically go after Chase Headley of the Padres?  The answer is no.

According to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ GM, has said he will not trade for an Alex Rodriguez replacement.  The team has Eric Chavez, and they intend to use him in A-Rod absence.

“Chavez is the solution and Jayson Nix is the solution, and whoever we have in the farm system are going to have to be the solution,” Cashman said. “I’m very comfortable with Eric Chavez as Alex’s replacement.”

Rodriguez is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a broken bone in his left hand.  The non-displaced fracture will not require surgery, but A-Rod will not be able to swing or put a glove on while the injury heals.  He will also have to rehab the broken hand to regain strength.  While it seems he will return toward the end of the season, it’s not out of the question that he could be lost for the rest of the year if he has any set-backs in rehab.

Eric Chavez has proven himself a capable back-up to Rodriguez this season.  He is hitting .269/.324/.474 with 8 home runs in 64 games.  He will get the bulk of the time at third now that Rodriguez is out.

Many people, including ESPN’s own Buster Olney, thought the Yankees would go after the Padres’ Chase Headley has been drawing interest since the 2011 off-season, but that interest has increased as the deadline approaches.

Headley is hitting .268/.361/.423 with 11 home runs this year.  He has been one of the most productive Padres in San Diego’s lineup.  The team, though, has his replacement ready and waiting at Triple-A in Jedd Gyorko.  They also know they can likely get an impressive return on Headley now because Headley is under team control through the end of the 2014 season.

If the Yankees truly do not pursue another back-up (Headley would be an expensive back-up in terms of what New York would have to give up), there are plenty of teams out there interested.  It’s just a matter of time before a deal gets done for Headley.

For more on the Yankees, be sure to check out Yanks Go Yard.  

For more on the Padres, be sure to check out Chicken Friars. 

According to Buster Olney, the DBacks are interested in Chase Headley. (Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE)

production at third, but he still is not hitting well enough to have a full-time job there.  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the DBacks would love to have the Padres’ Chase Headley.  He reminds us though the Diamondbacks and the Padres have strained relations.

Although Jeff Moorad is gone from the Padres organization (he was once an executive with the Diamondbacks), the Padres’ current GM is Josh Byrnes.  He was fired by the Diamondbacks.  To complicate things even more, Kevin Towers is the Diamondbacks GM.  He was fired by the Padres in unceremonious fashion.

Despite all this, the teams could work past their differences and hammer out a deal for the 28-year old third baseman.  The Padres have been shopping Headley for weeks now with numerous teams showing interest.  It has been reported that San Diego is looking for large returns on any deal involving Headley though.  He is one of the more underrated players in the league, but the Padres have talent in their farm system that they’d like to promote.

From an OPS+ and a straight-forward OPS standpoint, Headley is having the best season of his career.  His current OPS+ is 123, two points higher than his previous career best last year.  His OPS is .789, 16 points better than his previous best last year.  Headley is currently hitting .266/.365/.424.  He has sacrificed some of his on-base ability for power.  He already has ten home runs this year.  He hit four all of last season.

The Diamondbacks have been building their own talented farm system and that may be attractive to the Padres.  There is no word on what the Padres would ask in return from the DBacks, but pitching might top the list. While the Padres have some talented pitchers coming up through the system, injuries have ravaged the staff.  Even their minor league pitchers have been hit with the injury bug.

An intra-division trade is usually taboo, but in this case the Padres aren’t competing for anything this year except the number one draft pick next season.  Sure, Headley could hurt the Padres in the future during division games, but if the Padres could get solid talent in return, the deal would make sense.

For more on the Diamondbacks, be sure to check out Venom Strikes. 

For more on the Padres, be sure to check out Chicken Friars. 

As reported by CBS Sports, the Dodgers are interested in Jimmy Rollins. (Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE)

watching and pennant races.  No, the fun is in the trade talks.  Rumors fly from every team it seems.  The Dodgers are no different.  With their surprising success, Los Angeles has been looking to pick up some players to help push them through the summer and into the play-offs.

According to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports, the Dodgers are interested in Jimmy Rollins.  The Phillies’ shortstop was a free agent last year, but he didn’t get much interest from west coast teams and ultimately signed back with the Phillies.  However, the Dodgers are now in a position of need.

Knobler says the Dodgers are trying to trade for a hitter and a starting pitcher.  We already know they went after Carlos Lee.  We also know they have expressed interest in players like Cole Hamels, Carlos Quentin, Chase Headley, Matt Garza, and Zack Greinke.  Now we can add Jimmy Rollins to that list.  Rollins, as Knobler points out, has full no-trade clause protection.  He is a 10-5 player (ten years in the league, five with the same team), and that give him automatic no-trade clause protection.

Rollins is signed to a three-year, $33 million contract.  He also has a fourth year vesting option that if it kicks in is worth another $11 million.  For the vesting option to kick in, Rollins would need 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 1,100 PAs in 2013-14 and Rollins is not on disabled list at end of 2014 season (or if he is on the DL, a mutually agreed upon doctor deems him available for 2015 Opening Day roster).

So far this year, Rollins is hitting .262/.317/.421.  As it stands now, his offense is slightly below average based on his 99 OPS+.  However, the Dodgers are looking for someone to replace the hole left by Dee Gordon‘s injury – not to mention the fact that Dee Gordon’s offense has been atrocious this year.  Rollins is a three-time All-Star, he won the National League MVP in 2007, and has three Gold Gloves.  He would be an improvement for the Dodgers’ middle infield.

For more on the Dodgers, be sure to check out Lasorda’s Lair. 

Wait, so Chase Headley's one of the best third basemen in the game? Mandatory Credit: Andrew Carpenean-US PRESSWIRE

Headley is right in the middle of what appears to be a career year. Per FanGraphs, Headley has been worth 4.9 WAR in 2010, 2.7 WAR in 2011, and 3.4 WAR so far in 2012. Those figures make him worth between $12.3 million and $19.8 million per season based on the FanGraphs model, and that’s an impressive accomplishment considering it’s almost a certainty Headley will never command a salary even approaching that level. To put this in perspective, by these metrics Headley has been the second-best third baseman in baseball in 2012. He finished fifth in 2010.

The main reason Headley could be had for less than his true value is because his skill set is not truly understood. Headley’s value is derived primarily from his abilities to get on base and play stellar defense at the hot corner. Headley’s career walk rate is north of 10%, which is solid, but he’s sitting at 13.9% so far this season and has been steadily improving since 2010. Headley’s ability to draw walks has led to on-base percentages of .374 in 2011 and .372 in the first half of 2012. This means if he has bad luck on balls in play, he’s going to be penalized less. Advanced defensive metrics, while sometimes erratic (especially in small sample sizes) always lean toward Headley being one of the better fielders at his position.

Getting on base no matter the method has certainly been more widely accepted as an extremely desirable trait since the whole Moneyball thing, but it still seems like some front offices are behind the times. Defense remains largely misunderstood, but Headley passes pretty much any test whether conducted by the eyes or the numbers. But the secret weapon any team picking up Headley may find themselves in possession of happens to be power.

Chase Headley was drafted by the Padres and has been in the organization ever since, so naturally he’s always played his home games in the ridiculously over-sized Petco Park. This is the ballpark that once made people think Chris Young was Jake Peavy‘s equal and Jason Marquis is worth employing at all. Needless to say, Headley’s power numbers have been much better when he’s not stepping up to the plate in the unfriendliest confines a hitter could imagine in the modern age.

For his career, Headley has hit .235/.326/.341 at home. You never really want a third baseman putting up a .666 OPS for both poor playing and Satan worshiping reasons, but it’s much more understandable when you realize just how impossible it is to hit in that place. Adrian Gonzalez was just about the only Padre to retain power while calling Petco his home park. To be fair, Headley has improved to the tune of a .760 home OPS in 2012. Headley on the road, though, is a clear cut awesome third baseman to have from an offensive standpoint. He’s hit .299/.366/.445 away from Petco, good for a very solid .811 OPS. Just now hitting his prime, Headley may even have more in the tank should he call somewhere else home in the near future. After all, his road OPS has risen to the .850-.860 level over the past two seasons.

While Chase Headley is far from the biggest name we’ve seen on the trading block this summer, perhaps his stock should be much higher. For all the positive mainstream press the Marlins somehow got for picking up the gigantic shell of Carlos Lee, a Headley trade would likely slide under the radar. Well, it shouldn’t. Root for your team to trade for Chase Headley, because he’s a fantastic player and should have been a no-brainer to represent San Diego in the All-Star game next week.

If Brian’s work strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

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The reserves and the pitchers are where the snubs come into play.  The other players who provide their input and the managers that select the final players involved have a difficult job.  They are tasked with filling out a roster with the best players available, yet there are always biases.  See the number of the Rangers on the roster as an example.  With the biases and the limited roster spots, there will be some who are left off.  Here’s an abbreviated version of my list (Just the top four):

Edwin Encarnacion:

Encarnacion is having the best year of his career.  Maybe it’s overlooked because he plays in Toronto with

Edwin Encarnacion is having a career year, but he was left off the AL All-Star roster. (Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE)

Jose Bautista.  He’s nearing a career high in home runs and still has the second half of the season to go.  He’s hitting .291/.373/.572.  His contributions have kept the Blue Jays in the hunt, but he was passed up because of the number of talented third basemen in the league.

Chase Headley:

This may be a strange one for some, but Headley is the most consistent and the best player on the Padres roster.  Huston Street is the team’s lone representative and this was base solely on the need to get another pitcher on the roster, but Headley was deserving.  He is hitting .272/.371/.418 this year with eight home runs. His OPS has been increasing steadily and he currently has the highest OPS of his career.  But again, he plays third base, a position with much talent throughout the league.

Jake Peavy:

Peavy will be part of the final vote, but he shouldn’t have to be.  This is an example of the importance those within the game still put on wins.  Peavy is 6-5, but he has a slim 2.96 ERA this year.  He’s striking out 4.21 batters for every walk issued.  Simply put, he’s dominant again.  Not since his 2008 has Peavy been this good, and he’s got the inspiring story of recovery from an inure so rare no Major League player had ever experienced it.

Paul Goldschmidt:

This is a snub probably based on lack of availability at the position he plays.  However, Bryan LaHair made the All-Star game at first base and he doesn’t even play there anymore.  Surely there was a way to move things around and get Goldschmidt on the roster. He is hitting .292/.367/.540, good enough for a 138 OPS+.  He’s also hit 11 home runs in 67 games.  These are impressive numbers for a guy who skipped Triple-A ball altogether.

For continued coverage of the 2012 All-Star Game, be sure to check out our dedicated ASG Page. 

It looks like Carlos Lee will veto a trade from Houston to the Dodgers. (Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE)

to came calling, and Lee said no.  At least for now.  According to numerous sources including ESPN’s Buster Olney and Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle, Lee intends to make an official decision by Sunday, but he has told the Astros he does not want to waive his no-trade clause in order to go to the Dodgers.

The Dodgers, who started the season red-hot, have fallen off quite a bit and now find themselves trailing the Giants in the National League West.  They are lacking offense and Lee would have been a big help.  They’ve also been linked to Carlos Quentin and Chase Headley of the Padres.

Lee has played for the Astros for the last six years.  He’s hit .287/.339/.480 in his time with Houston, but he’s shown power everywhere he has been.  Lee has had twelve seasons of 20 home runs or more.

The Astros are looking to get something in return for Lee before he hits free agency.  It’s unlikely they will make a qualifying offer to Lee in free agency meaning under the terms of the new CBA they wouldn’t get anything in return for the loss of El Caballo.  The Dodgers had shown the most interest and are ready to deal, but it doesn’t look like the move will happen.  If it does, it means Lee had a change of heart from Saturday to Sunday.

For more on the Astros, be sure to check out Climbing Tal’s Hill. 

For more on the Dodgers, be sure to check out Lasorda’s Lair.