Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Granderson, coming off something of disappointing season in 2012, figures prominently in the Yankees’ plans this year, and obviously missing a month of the schedule isn’t going to sit well with the organization or the fans. The incident took place earlier today while facing J.A. Happ of the Toronto Blue Jays; Happ drilled Granderson on the forearm in his first plate appearance of the spring.

This is a tough way to start things out for Granderson and the Yankees, but Brett Gardner is more than capable of filling in at center for the first month of the season. It’s never a good thing when a star-caliber player misses significant time due to a spring training injury, but in this particular instance, it could have been a lot worse.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

NYY have been open to talks about Curtis Granderson. If they move his $15m salary, it would provide more flexibility to do other things.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 4, 2012

Granderson lead the AL with 119 RBI in 2011. Image: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Immediately, you might look at Granderson’s 43 home runs last season, or his 41 the year b efore, and assume the Yankees have gone crazy, but Granderson seems to have deteriorated as a player apart from those Yankee Stadium-aided home run totals.

He’ll be 32 years old before Opening Day and defensive metrics have been very unkind to his play in centerfield over the past few years. Additionally, Granderson took a big step backward in terms of plate approach in 2012. Strikeouts have always been a problem for him, and last season was no exception.

The center field market is no longer flush with teams that have openings and Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn still need jobs. But if a club like the Phillies doesn’t like the potential of a five or six year commitment with Bourn, Granderson for a year could be a reasonable alternative. He would also fit with Seattle, who could play him on one of the corners and have some of the additional offense they’ve been seeking.

Granderson no longer offers much in the way of base stealing, but still runs well. His approach at the plate has come under fire as he’s realized his power potential, though if he were to play in another park he may be less puss conscious. As of now though, Granderson is spiraling toward becoming an all or nothing hitter who offers negative value on defense. He’s Adam Dunn with better speed.

Cano’s option, worth $15 million, was a no-brainer. Despite a post-season that saw him suffer through an 0-for-29 stretch, a record for playoff futility, Cano is one of the elite players in all of baseball and easily the best the Yankees have to offer.  Exercising this option is simply the first step toward what the Yankees hope will be a long-term contract extension.

Granderson has 15 million reasons to smile. Image: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The option for Granderson wasn’t viewed as an easy a decision as Cano’s deal, but in the end, the Yankees picked up that deal as well, also worth $15 million. Granderson clubbed 43 homers in 2013, but otherwise saw most of the rest of his offensive and defensive statistics trend backward once again. After a stellar 2011 season, his second in the Bronx, Granderson saw his average drop by 30 points, his OBP fall by 45 points, and his slugging percentage drop by an alarming 60 points, despite an uptick in home runs.

Defensively, Granderson has a much better reputation with the glove than the number actually show. According to UZR, Granderson has been rated as below average in 2011 and significantly below average in 2012. In fact, at -17.8 UZR, Granderson was easily the lowest rated defensive centerfielder in all of baseball in 2012, which is something the Bombers should probably take into consideration going forward. Flip-flopping Granderson and left fielder Brett Gardner would probably be beneficial to the ball club, if not simply DHing Granderson whenever possible.

The hard truth is that in 2012, Granderson’s overall play was not unlike that of Adam Dunn. There were a lot of strikeouts, a ton of home runs, and very little of anything else. At least Dunn adds a good amount of walks.

With the decision made on Granderson, the door could be quickly closing on Nick Swisher‘s possible return to the Bronx. Both he and Ichiro Suzuki are set to hit free agency and only one is likely to be back in pinstripes next year. the smart money is on Suzuki to return, as the Yankees could get him on a much shorter deal and likely one less costly than what they would get with Swisher.

Texas Rangers 10, Boston Red Sox 9

The Texas offense came to life to hold off the Red Sox and maintain a 5.5 game lead in the AL west. With the game tied in the ninth inning, Adrian Beltre hit a sacrifice fly that wound up being the winner. Josh Hamilton went 3-5 with his 30th home run and four RBI, while Elvis Andrus also had three hits. Will Middlebrooks hit a three-run homer for the second straight day, while Cody Ross hit his 17th dinger of the year. Adrian Gonzalez stayed hot in the loss, going 3-5 with three runs scored and three RBI. Texas may have won, but Roy Oswalt didn’t look any better in the bullpen. The veteran pitcher gave up four earned runs in 1 1/3 IP.

Oakland Athletics 9, Los Angeles Angels 8

The A’s remain within 5.5 games of Texas with this win, while the Angels fell to seven games back. Chris Carter hit his 10th home run of the season in just 90 at-bats, while Geoge Kottaras hit his first homer as an Athletic. Kendrys Morales went deep twice for the Angels, while teammate Mark Trumbo hit his 29th bomb of the season.

Cleveland Indians 6, Minnesota Twins 2

After losing 11 in a row, the Indians are finally back in the win column. Justin Masterson allowed two runs and struck out seven in seven innings, while Shin-Soo Choo went 4-4 with a run scored and two RBI. Alexi Casilla, who normally doesn’t bother with hitting, clubbed his first 2012 home run in the loss.

Baltimore Orioles 9, Seattle Mariners 2

Steve Johnson’s first start was a six-inning, two-run effort with nine strikeouts. That was more than enough for the Oriole offense, as Matt Wieters drove in five and Mark Reynolds homered. The Orioles are now nine games ov er .500.

New York Yankees 12, Detroit Tigers 8

The Yankees welcomed Anibal Sanchez to the American League with a bang, rocking him for seven runs in three innings. Curtis Granderson hit his 30th home run and drove in four runs, while five other Yankees had multi-hit games. Omar Infante homered for his new/old team in defeat.

Tampa Bay Rays 3, Toronto Blue Jay2

Alex Cobb pitched seven solid innings and struck out seven as his Tampa offense scored all three of their runs in the third inning. B.J. Upton drove in a run and stole a base in the win.

Kansas City Royals 2, Chicago White Sox 1

Jeremy Guthrie, who was picked up for Jonathan Sanchez in a “let’s trade our garbage” deal, went eight shutout innings and struck out six without walking anyone. Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez each hit solo homers to score the Royal runs.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee Brewers 3, Cincinnati Reds 2

The Reds have now lost four straight after the Brewers upended them in the bottom of the eighth inning on Wednesday. Carlos Gomez singled to drive in the tying run, while a Ryan Braun double plated the eventual game-winner. Randy Wolf pitched six innings and struck out seven for a no-decision, while the late Milwaukee rally spoiled a great start from Mat Latos (7 IP, ER, 3 H, 8 K).

San Diego Padres 2, Chicago Cubs 0

Clayton Richard controlled the Cubs by throwing a complete game shutout with five strikeouts on Wednesday. Yonder Alonso and Chase Headley each had two hits in the win. Jeff Samardzija pitched well in the loss, going seven innings and allowing just one run.

Atlanta Braves 12, Philadelphia Phillies 6

The Braves scored multiple runs in four different innings to batter Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies. Michael Bourn homered and went 3-5 with three RBI, while Dan Uggla went 3-4 with three RBI and a walk. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard went deep in the loss.

Pittsburgh Pirates 7, Arizona Diamondbacks 6

The Pirates inched closer to the Reds by holding off the D-Backs in a close one. Neil Walker homered and drove in five of the Pittsburgh runs, while Sterling Marte and Jordy Mercer also cleared the walls.

Miami Marlins 13, New York Mets 0

Perhaps jaded by their unexpectedly bad season, the Marlins unleashed the pain on the Mets all at once. Fresh off the disabled list, Giancarlo Stanton homered twice, had four hits, and drove in four runs. Newcomer Nathan Eovaldi pitched five shutout innings despite walking six.

San Francisco Giant15, St. Louis Cardinals 0

The Giants led 2-0 entering the sixth inning and then exploded for 13 more runs in the final four frames. Marco Scutaro hit a grand slam and drove in seven runs, while Ryan Vogelsong tossed seven shutout innings to remain the NL ERA leader.

Washington Nationals 4. Houston Astros 3

…and there’s another loss for the rebuilding Astros. Gio Gonzalez went the distance, allowed three runs, and struck out seven for his 14th win. He also hit a two-run homer just in case you weren’t happy enough with his pitching performance. Jose Altuve reached base three times for poor Houston.

Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Colorado Rockies 4

After a couple of days of sputtering, the Dodgers offense got back on track. Matt Kemp had three hits, three RBI, and a home run. New acquisition Shane Victorino chimed in with three hits and three runs scored of his own. Nothing cool happened for the Rockies.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

From the Yankees, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Curtis Granderson.  The appearance will mark

Derek Jeter will be making his 13th ASG appearance. (Brad Penner-US PRESSWIRE)

Cano’s 3rd consecutive All-Star appearance and his fourth overall.  Jeter will be making his 13th All-Star game and his 7th consecutive appearance.  Granderson will be appearing in his second consecutive game.

The Rangers have three former All-Stars starting this year’s game.  Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli, and Adrian Beltre will all be starting for the American League.  Hamilton, who got a late start to his career due to addiction, is making his fifth consecutive All-Star appearance.  Napoli, a cast-off from the Angels two years ago, is making his first appearance.  Beltre is making his third appearance, his second with Texas.  He also made the team with Boston in 2010.

The Giants are the third team with three representatives for this year’s All-Star Game.  Melky Cabrera, Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval will all be starting for the NL.  This marks Cabrera’s, who is having the best year of his career, first appearance. This will also be Posey’s first appearance.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2010.  Sandoval will be making his second consecutive appearance.

Each player was voted in by the fans.  Reserves and pitchers will be chosen by the game’s managers and will be announced later.  The reserves and pitchers could significantly increase each team’s total representatives.

For continued coverage of the 2012 All-Star Game, be sure to check out our dedicated ASG Page. 

Aaron Hill hit for the cycle last night for the second time in two weeks. (Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE)

On June 18th, Hill hit for the first cycle of his career against Seattle.  Last night, he picked up his second career cycle – and his second cycle in less than two weeks – against the Milwaukee Brewers.  He completed his cycle last night in just six innings, and he became just the fourth players in the history of the game to hit for the cycle twice in a single season. If he hits one more at any point in his career, he will match the all-time record of three.  It’s not an easy thing to do folks.

Back in 2010, Jeff Stackman of The Hardball Times wrote a fascinating article about hitting for the cycle.  He broke down the odds of a particular player doing so, in this case Curtis Granderson, and he then broke the odds down to hitting a natural cycle (all four hits of the cycle come in order) verse an unnatural cycle.  In Granderson’s case, Granderson should hit for a natural cycle once every 263,000 games.  He should hit for an unnatural cycle once every 4,400 games.  The math can be applied to any player if you determine their probability of getting each hit involved in the cycle, but I think Mr. Stackman proved the rarity with his analysis of Granderson.

So let’s take a closer look at Aaron Hill.  Hill has 1,003 hits in his career (his 1000th hit came while completing this improbable second cycle of the season).  He has 109 home runs, 16 triples, and 217 doubles.  Forget about the singles for a second, and let’s see how often Hill hits a triple.  In his career, Hill has 4,087 plate appearance.  That means he hits a triple 0.3% of the time he steps to the plate.  He hits a double 5.3% of the time he steps to the plate.  And he hits a home run 2.7% of the time.

Those aren’t the types of numbers that shout out, “high cycle probability coming through!”  But baseball doesn’t care about odds.  It doesn’t care about the complete nonsensical outcomes certain players have in a given day.  Aaron Hill doesn’t care either.

“You can’t think about it,” he said after the game. “You look for a ball up and hope things work out.”

Hill was traded for by Kevin Towers for Kelly Johnson.  At the time, the move didn’t make much sense to most people, but Towers saw something in Hill that he didn’t see in Johnson.  He saw plate discipline.  The trade has worked out well.  In 106 games with the Diamondbacks, Hill is hitting .306/.370/.511.

Check back here in two weeks when Hill becomes the first player to hit three cycles in a single season.

For more on the Diamondbacks, be sure to check out Venom Strikes. 

During the off season I discussed with a couple of fellow Yankee fans the idea of the Yankees signing Albert Pujols who was a free agent.  They asked where Pujols would play since the Yankees already had a first baseman, Mark Teixeira, signed to an expensive long term contract.  I said that the Yanks could move one of them to right field and not pick up the option on Nick Swisher whom I did not like anyway.  They did not want to move Pujols even though he had been a starting left fielder in his second and third seasons.  I said OK, then move Teixeira to the outfield.   Teixeira has played 32 MLB games in the outfield.  They reacted as if I was a complete idiot for suggesting that a baseball player might be capable of changing positions, you know like Adrian Gonzalez has done this season for Boston, moving from first base to the outfield in eight games to get an extra bat at first base.

Undaunted I brought up something that I had long suspected but had never mentioned to anyone else.  I said that aside from the pitcher and catcher and allowing for handedness, i.e., a southpaw at shortstop or third base, you could pick the names out of a hat for defense and fans would not see much difference in the quality of play.  Now I was really under attack.  Moving Derek Jeter a few feet further back, from shortstop to left field, would cost the Yankees 30 runs they said.  I persisted but they were not persuaded.

Now there are players such as Yankee Jayson Nix who are actually capable of playing adequately at multiple infield positions and also in the outfield.  How ever can they do it?  Are they contortionists, ventriloquists, sorcerers?  Back when I attended games and even showed up early enough to watch pre-game practice I saw players working out around second base turning double plays.  Turns out they were reserve outfielders just fooling around.

Here’s my hypothesis.  Let’s say we draw names out of a hat for MLB regulars, not multiple position players like Jayson Nix.  But we make it a pool of players who are not very recognizable.  Then we put them into those old style uniforms from a hundred years ago with no names or numbers.  No names flashed on the scoreboard or on TV.  I maintain that fans casually watching would not notice that these MLB players had been randomly placed at their defensive positions.

Most plays are routine.  MLB players should make 90% of them.  Good softball players should make most of them.  It’s the consistency that matters, being able to make the 90% of plays often enough to be MLB caliber.  Infielders can catch fly balls in the outfield. Outfielders can catch grounders and throw out runners.

One reason I think this is possible is that baseball remains the least specialized of the three major American team sports and that skill at one position readily translates to skill at another.  I think it’s also because the players are not so different in size.  Here are the Yankee infielders:

Robinson Cano 6’0″ 210
Derek Jeter 6’3″ 195
Alex Rodriguez 6’3″ 225
Mark Teixeira 6’3″ 215

Even the shortstop is 6’3″.  Now the outfielders:

Curtis Granderson 6’1″ 195
Nick Swisher 5’11″ 200
Bret Gardner 5’10″ 185

The infielders are actually bigger than the outfielders.

But the differences are not great, not so great that they could not reasonably change positions and perform adequately.  Imagine trying that in the other sports.

Switch a 6’2″ point guard and a 7′ center in basketball.  Or in football switch a nose tackle with a free safety.  Those are big changes, literally and figuratively.

The big issue would be exchanging outfielders and infielders.  Most people would agree that moving infielders to other infield positions is not that big a deal.  Many infielders start out as shortstops and move to second or third because they are not quite good enough to play short.  Moving outfielders around is pretty simple.

But could you imagine Curtis Granderson playing second base?  Or Robinson Cano center field?  Yes.  It’s not nearly as much of a stretch as the basketball or football examples.

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You can follow the personal baseball blog of Kenneth Matinale here: Radical Baseball

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Winston Churchill Contemplating WAR: http://lb.vg/5I281

Former Prime Minister (1940-1945, 1951-1955) of England Winston Churchill: Better jaw, jaw, jaw than waw, waw, waw.

Former President (1933-1945) Franklin Delano Roosevelt: I hate war.

Obviously these two statesmen were way ahead of their times when it comes to baseball.  Their views on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are interesting juxtapositions.

I lean towards Mr. Churchill who does not completely dismiss the concept but encourages continued debate.  Maybe having a British father and an American mother gave him additional insight.  Maybe it was his native game of cricket that provided some special understanding.

I’m a smart guy.  I understand baseball and really enjoy the numbers, even those on the uniforms.  I like playing with the numbers.  However, my math skills are largely confined to arithmetic.  I am not a statistician or operations research person.  Those are the really smart guys who have come up with the new stuff in recent years.  So declaring war on them or their concepts is useless for me.  I need to confine my concerns to common sense things.

There are two things about WAR for non-pitchers that should be examined:

1. WAR is a total, not an average

2. defensive WAR, more properly called fielding WAR, is suspect.  The more the really smart guys delve into fielding stats in general the more they see a need to develop more methods of measurement.

Let’s look just at batting numbers.  It seems to me the cartoon view of how baseball fans judged batters goes something like this: first there were hit totals, then batting average (BA).  BA became dominant and continues to hold more influence than many care to admit.  The league leader in BA is called the batting champ, the leader in hitting, etc.

Then came on base percentage (average) OBP.  That was cool.  Slugging average (SLG) was hanging around, too.  Then the breakthrough, which gave us smart guys a simple but pretty reliable way to judge batters by re-using two basic and understandable stats: OBP and SLG, combined to produce OPS: OBP + SLG.

So just when we smart guys were getting pretty full of ourselves, the really smart guys came up with WAR based on linear weights, which may have become the new orthodoxy and as such suspect.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/

The first item listed is WAR.

Notice, we’ve come full cycle: from hits, a total, to BA, OPS, OPS+ (all averages) to WAR, another total.

Using a total will generally give an advantage to longevity, possibly at the expense of quality.  Pete Rose becomes a better hitter than Ty Cobb using the original stat, hits.  Rafael Palmeiro becomes a better home run hitter than Mickey Mantle.  You can see the problem but I’ve heard really smart guys simply state that player A was/is better than player B because A had more Wins Above Replacement and therefore helped his team more.

Then there’s Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR).

I recently heard Brian Kenny on his MLB network Clubhouse Confidential TV program (apparently only an off season program) describe multiple defensive metrics that come to opposing conclusions about Yankee center fielder (CF) Curtis Granderson.

Here’s an historical puzzle for me – Willie Mays dWAR, Plate Appearances (PA) and home park:

1954 2.1 641 NY Polo Grounds
1955 0.7 670 NY Polo Grounds
1956 1.3 651 NY Polo Grounds
1957 0.6 669 NY Polo Grounds
1958 1.7 685 SF Seals Stadium
1959 0.4 649 SF Seals Stadium

During his physical prime the pattern for Mays is up, down, up, down, up, down.  Why?  PA suggest that he was not injured in these seasons.

Starting in 1960 Candlestick Park was Willie’s home park.

1960-1966 (age 35) dWAR for Willie Mays is between 1.3 (1963) and 2.0 (1962).

Did the fielding of Willie Mays improve with age?  How likely is that?  Stuff like this make me suspicious of fielding stats.

Here’s an interesting link:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_top_ten.shtml

Year-by-Year Top-Ten Leaders & Records for Defensive WAR

Request to baseball-reference.com: include the player’s position.

There’s a pretty cool matrix.  Number one in 2011: Yankee left fielder (LF) Brett Gardner (3.2), a CF playing out of position.  Compared to other LF Garner should look a lot better.  This introduces another bias: position.

OK, that’s enough.  You really smart guys need to educate the rest of us.

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You can follow my blog here: Radical Baseball

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