Seattle Mariners righty Felix Hernandez is one of the toughest pitchers in the American League for batters to hit and he shows it every fifth day. Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Surveying the batting and pitching leaders six weeks into the 2013 Major League baseball season it is intriguing to look at the league leaders and wonder who is going to hold up and who is going to fade.

Is the American League batting champion going to be the same person leading today? Or is it going to be someone who is 10th? Is the National League home run champ going to be today’s king swatter or someone who has yet to get hot?

Are we going to see a 20-game winner amongst the starting pitchers who started fast this year or are they going to hit rough patches and end up like 12-12?

Here is what the list of top hitters in the American League looks like: 1) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, .382; 2) James Loney, Rays, .376; 3) Carlos Santana, Indians, .354; 4) Jose Altuve, Astros, .342; 5) Torii Hunter, Tigers, .338. It should also be noted that the Rays Evan Longoria is at .336 and the Red Sox’ Dustin Pedroia is at .324.

We know that Cabrera can stay right where he is because he won the Triple Crown last year, though he won’t hit this high. Loney won’t last. Santana will drop 50 points. Altuve, really, who knows? Hunter is benefiting from being in a powerhouse lineup, but should drop to around .300. Longoria and Pedroia might well maintain while the others drop beneath them.

On the National League side Carlos Gomez of the Brewers is hitting .373, Yadier Molina of the Cardinals is at .344; Adrian Gonzalez of the Dodgers is batting .339, Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies is at .337 and Starling Marte of the Pirates is at .333. It’s difficult to picture any of them hitting for as high an average over the course of a season. They should all drop and someone like the Brewers’ Ryan Braun .319, might sneak in and overtake everyone.

The guys who really get fans buzzing are the early home-run leaders. Their totals can never go down, only go up, so every one notched produces a little electrical charge about just how hot that guy is. The hottest slugger in the AL is Cleveland Mark Reynolds with 11 blasts. Edwin Encarncion of Toronto and Chris Davis of Baltimore have 10 apiece. Reynolds strikes out too much to maintain his lead, but Davis is an intriguing figure to consider as a league leader. More likely the Tigers’ Prince Fielder and Cabrera will heat up.

Justin Upton of the Braves has ripped 12 homers this year. John Buck of the Mets and Bryce Harper of the Nationals each have 10. Nice start for Upton, but he won’t keep up the pace. Buck’s homer bashing is a fluke. Harper might be the trendy pick, but Carlos Beltran, with nine for the Cardinals, could be there in the end.

In the RBI world Cabrera, again the defending champ, is starting to run away with the title in the AL. He has 40 and Fielder and Davis have 33 each. The unlikely leaders in the NL are Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (31), Diamondbacks young man Paul Goldschmitt (30) and Buck (29).

None of them seem like good bets to sustain the pace. Braun (25), the Giants’ Pablo Sandoval (24) or Beltran (22) of the Cardinals, are better prospects to lead the league.

On the pitching side, it is becoming more challenging for rotation members to win 20 games. They seem to get more rest than ever between starts and get yanked out of games more quickly. But you can always hope.

The early six-game winners in the American League are Boston’s Clay Buchholz and Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore. Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman is the man in the NL. Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller has won five.

There are a whole bunch of pitchers with great earned run averages, an inordinate number, it seems. Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is at the top of the AL chart with a 1.53. The top two guys in the National League are rookies in Matt Harvey of the Mets at 1.28 and Miller at 1.58. Hernandez may well start winning big and hold his ERA down.

It’s also quite crowded atop the fireman charts. Already there are five relievers in the American League with at least 10 saves. Baltimore’s Jim Johnson has 14 and indefatigble Mariano Rivera has 13. Another four relievers in the NL are into double-figure saves, too. Jason Grilli of the Pirates is tops with 14. We may be looking at a season with up to 10 relievers amassing 45 saves or better.

Of course, a lot of this supposition is built around the belief that these guys will stay healthy. Some of them won’t make it and their fast starts will be forgotten.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez tips his cap to the home fans at SafeCo Field during a 2012 game. Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

How much is too much to pay for a pitcher? How much can one player be worth? Felix Hernandez is getting national GNP dollars to throw for the Seattle Mariners in 2013 and for seven years, so much money that he could personally bail out Haiti.

This is a story of what the market will bear and any time we imagine that there is a limit to what the market will bear some team comes along and lets foolish us know that there is no limit, not even the sky is the limit, and maybe it is the atmosphere surrounding the moon, just not the sky around our planet factored into the limit.

Pretty soon Forbes’ list of billionaires will see baseball players thrust their way into consideration, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and now Felix Hernandez. Move over Warren Buffet and Bill Gates.

We may be astonished when a team commits to paying a player $175 million as the Mariners recently did, or perhaps we have lost our ability to be astonished, but it has always been thus in the sports and entertainment world. For a team that wants to win, it must pay big bucks to corral big talent.

In the early part of the 20th century fans and sports writers marveled about the apparently bottomless bank account that owner/manager Connie Mack dipped in to in order to fund his “$100,000 infield” of Stuffy McInnis at first, Eddie Collins at second, Jack Barry at short and Frank Baker at third. That was a huge amount of money for a quartet of players in those days, but it was worth it to the Philadelphia Athletics because they won four pennants. Also, Bill James, the major domo of statisticians, rates that infield as among the very best few of all time, so Mack’s judgment was pretty good. Collins and Baker are in the Hall of Fame.

In the 1950s, Humphery Bogart was being paid $200,000 a picture to make movies. “A” list stars make $20 million a picture now, but $200,000 was pretty serious money about 60 years ago. Put it this way, Bogart was making more per movie than any Major League baseball player was making per season at that time.

The point is that talent costs and marquee value talent costs even more. Is Herandez worth $25 million a year to pitch every fifth day? Generally speaking no. But he may be worth that much to the Mariners if they can win a pennant or two with the 26-year-old, in-his-prime Hernandez hurling and it may be worth it to keep him away from rival teams. The Mariners also didn’t feel they could take the public relations hit of letting Herandez walk. After all, this franchise once had Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Rodriguez and couldn’t keep them. It would help justify the cost of the deal if the fans jammed Safeco Field every single time Hernandez pitched.

Always raised is the issue of who is going to play with Hernandez if he soaked up every available nickel the franchise had to offer. He needs able teammates to play alongside him if the Mariners are going to win. Otherwise Hernandez will just remain what he has been lately, a jewel surrounded by lumps of coal.

It seems $25 million a year is too much to pay and it seems as if $25 million is not really sustainable. But Hernandez took what he could get.

If he keeps landing on that bent front knee and keeps delivering 230 innings a year, Felix might join the greats. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Felix Hernandez is, for the moment, the highest paid pitcher to ever toe the rubber. Starting pitching is the basic building block of all winning teams. Young, durable and highly talented starting pitchers are the rarest of commodities, and therefore the most expensive asset for any owner and GM.

Whether one thinks Felix “the King” Hernandez was worth his ransom or not is simply an opinion. And you know the old saying about opinions, they’re like rear ends, everybody has one. For the sake of this piece, lets look at only facts before we decide.

Since 1960, a total of 15 pitchers profiled similarly to Felix Hernandez using four common statistics: IP (innings pitched), K/9 (strikeouts per nine IP), ERA (earned run average) and WAR (wins above replacement). For the sake of comparison, the pitchers had to meet these criteria by their 28th birthday. Hernandez will turn 27 on April 8, 2013.

IP: 1400 plus
K/9: 7.0 plus
ERA: 3.50 or less
WAR: minimum of 25.0

Felix Hernandez stat line: 1620.1 IP   8.26 K/9   3.22 ERA   38.3 WAR

The good news for Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners organization is that many of the pitchers who met these criteria had long and brilliant careers. The following Hall of Fame pitchers who did so by their 28th birthdays were Bert Blyleven, Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins and Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan. Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez also met the criteria, Clemens is not in the Hall due to PED suspicion and Martinez will likely be a first ballot Cooperstown inductee.

On the other hand, the bad news are the names that meet the criteria but whose careers fall short. These names are the cautionary tales, the nightmare scenario for fans in the Emerald City; Dwight Gooden, Sam McDowell, Kevin Appier, Johan Santana, Jim Maloney, Jose Rijo and Mario Soto. These pitchers were all young studs, aces and future stars who never fulfilled their promise, mostly due to injury (Dwight Gooden for other reasons).

The jury is still out on his contemporary Matt Cain.

Of all the success stories, Hernandez seems to be closest to Fergie Jenkins. Jenkins was 115-81 with a 2.99 ERA through the season he turned 28. Over the next seven years of his career he would win 116 games, but began to fade near the end. He would finish his career with 284 wins and a 3.34 ERA and is a Hall of Famer.

The King also profiles a bit like Steve Carlton, who had a similar ERA (3.02) and WAR (41.7). “Lefty” was 117-92 the season that ended during his 28th birthday. Over the next seven years he pitched at least 247 innings and won 132 games for the Phillies, going 24-9 in the World Series winning 1980 season. He finished his career with 329 wins and a 3.22 ERA.

Jim Maloney’s 1623 IP, 3.12 ERA, 8.22 K/9 and 35.1 WAR were eerily similar to the numbers of Hernandez. Zduriencik might spit out his Starbucks latte when he realizes that Maloney won a total of 12 more games and pitched less than 250 innings after his 28th birthday. Jose Rijo led the Reds to a 1990 World Series upset of the Oakland A’s. Through his 28th year he had 1544.2 IP, 7.71 K/9 and a 3.13 ERA. After that Rijo would win just 16 games, pitching only 335 innings.

Kevin Appier also profiles similarly. His ERA of 3.28 and 38.6 WAR put him in close company with the King. Unfortunately, Appier tallied just 68 wins in the seven years after he turned 28. He would finish his career with an ERA of 3.74 and 6.9 K/9.

So is the Felix Hernandez worth all the money. Hindsight is always 20/20, we won’t know for sure until 2019. Historically, it’s a bit of a crapshoot, of course. the act of throwing a ball overhand is a violent, unnatural motion, many bodies have a finite number of fastballs and curveballs in them. But as the statistics prove, many of the truly great pitchers have been able to shoulder similar loads to Hernandez and have Hall of Fame careers. However, history is also littered with talented pitchers who were not able to finish off what were brilliant beginnings to their careers.

Reports suggest that the Mariners could have some concerns about Hernandez’s elbow, though there is no indication that he’ll be held back in workouts this Spring. (Image Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)

Little has been said in the past few days regarding the status of talks between Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners about their pending contract extension. We’ve seen further indication that a deal is “on the verge” of being completed, given the updated contract details passed along by ESPN’s Buster Olney late last week* and the news that Hernandez is opting to skip the World Baseball Classic in order to focus on the upcoming season, but there has been little evidence that a deal is almost complete. News shared by Olney on Sunday suggests that the two sides may actually be further apart than we had been led to believe.

Evidently, concerns have developed about Hernandez’s pitching elbow after he took a physical for the team this past week. It’s unknown if there is a known-injury or if this is simply a case of team doctors feeling overly cautious, but the concern appears significant enough that there has been speculation that the deal may need to be reworked in some fashion. Hernandez has reportedly been throwing normally for the past month and will participate in team activities at Spring Training without any extra restrictions.

Teams have become increasingly wary of big-money contracts because of injury concerns and rightfully so. Seattle may simply be doing their due diligence in this case, but ultimately a deal will still likely be reached between the two sides. Hernandez wants to remain a Mariner and the team surely wants to keep him there.

Hernandez has been a workhorse for the Mariners over his career, having thrown 1,620.1 innings already (including 200+ in each of the past five seasons). Only three pitchers have thrown more before their 27th birthdays since 1969 – Bert Blyleven, Fernando Valenzuela, and Dwight Gooden.

* Initial reports suggested that the extension was for seven years and $175 Million (a $25 Million AAV), replacing the two remaining years that Hernandez is already under contract for. Olney’s update suggests that the two remaining years will continue in tact and the extension is merely a five year addition to that time, valued closer to $135 Million (a $27 Million AAV).

The Seattle Mariners have made no secret of their desire to lock Felix Hernandez up for the long term and according to reports the two sides have agreed upon a new deal. (Image Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)

Seattle Mariners ace right-hander Felix Hernandez has reportedly reached an agreement with the team on a new contract, according to a report by Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. The deal is for seven years and expected to be valued at $175 Million. Sources familiar with contract talks expect that the deal will be finalized before the start of Spring Training.

Hernandez has two years remaining on his existing deal, a five year deal signed after the 2009 season that was to pay him $78 Million. He had been scheduled to earn $19.5 Million this season and then $20 Million in 2014. This new contract will reportedly replace the existing two years, paying Hernandez an average annual value of $25 Million per season. The average annual value and total value of the deal make Hernandez the highest paid pitcher in MLB history. It is also the largest deal in Mariners team history. Hernandez will turn 27 in early April and will be just 33 when the deal expires.

Hernandez’s credentials largely go without saying. In his eight year career he’s 98-76 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.212 WHIP. He’s thrown more than 230 innings in each of the last four seasons, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning over that span. Three of the past four seasons he’s participated in the All Star Game. Three times he’s finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young Award voting, including winning the award in 2010 after going 13-12 with a league-leading 2.27 ERA, 249.2 IP, and just 7.0 H/9.

“King Felix” posted a 13-9 mark, 3.06 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, and threw five complete game shutouts – including a perfect game in August – this past season.

Significant contract extensions for pitchers are often a fickle beast, as Hernandez may only be able to claim the “highest paid pitcher” title for a brief period of time. He had been expected to reach free agency following the 2014 season, the same time that both Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw are expected to be available. Both players are already candidates for significant contract extensions with their respective teams, but Hernandez’s deal could now serve as a benchmark for talks for each player.

Seattle fans adore Felix Hernandez and if an extension can be reached, will get to see him pitch for the Mariners for many years to come. (Image Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)

With Hernandez’s current contract set to expire after the 2014 season, the team and his representatives have started discussions about a contract extension. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, and it’s not known if an actual offer has been made at this point but they are at least talking. Reports suggest that the team is at least weighing a four year, $100 Million offer. Adding such a proposal to the two years he has remaining under contract would equate to a six year, $139.5 Million package.

Hernandez is set to turn 27 in early April and has produced an impressive career to date. He’s coming off his fifth straight season throwing more than 200 innings, his fourth straight topping 200 strikeouts and he’s started 30+ games in each of the past seven. He’s been a model of consistency for the Mariners. Add in three All Star Game appearances, the AL Cy Young Award in 2010 and a perfect game and it’s clear why the Mariners think so highly of him.

Yet, reaching an agreement on a contract extension is far from the easy task that some might expect.

First up, two deals which have been signed recently cannot be overlooked, as Rosenthal points out. Zack Greinke signed a six year, $147 Million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, making him the highest paid pitcher in MLB history. He holds a career mark of 91-78 with a 3.77 ERA over nine seasons. Cole Hamels signed a six year, $144 Million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies this past July. Hamels was just a few months away from reaching the open market. Including the end of the 2012 season he’s now 91-60 with a 3.34 ERA over seven seasons.

Hernandez enters the 2013 season with a 98-76 record and 3.22 ERA over eight seasons. He’s posted better peripherals that both Greinke and Hamels while being much more consistent. It would be easy for his camp to suggest that he is more valuable than the pair, thus deserving in a more lucrative contract. Furthermore, a four year extension would only take Hernandez until the age of 32 and it would be completely reasonable for him to ask for a longer termed deal. A six year extension rivaling the deals that Greinke and Hamels signed shouldn’t be out of the question.

Similarly, however, the Mariners could justify holding back on their offer – keeping things in the $100 Million range – considering the fact that Hernandez is still under team control for two more seasons. They wouldn’t necessarily be preventing him from reaching free agency any sooner by signing an extension now rather than waiting. There’s little reason to offer anything longer than a four year extension. Hernandez could opt for the immediate financial security such an extension would provide, only to hit the open market at the age of 32.

Of course, there is also the added wrinkle which surrounds Hernandez’ perceived interest in becoming the highest paid pitcher in all of baseball. Adding a four year, $100 Million extension to his existing contract would not accomplish that, as both Greinke and Hamels would be slated to earn more over the same span. Hernandez, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, is looking more towards the seven year, $161 Million deal that CC Sabathia received from the Yankees. He’s also keeping an eye on Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw, neither of whom have started extension talks with their respective teams but sit in a highly similar position to Hernandez. It’s entirely possible that all three will exceed Sabathia’s deal in terms of overall value. Heyman disputes whether talks between Hernandez and the Mariners have begun, contending that anything short of a six year proposal won’t even bring the two sides to the table together.

It’s easy to see why a contract extension could/should appeal to both sides and it’s completely logical to expect that at some point a deal will be reached. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik declined to comment on the negotiations, but made his intentions clear to the local reporters when asked about the situation:

 I’ve made it clear, I have every intention of keeping Felix here for the long term.

April 30, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) walks back to the dugout after he pitched the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

The AL West had a few surprises this season. The Oakland Athletics won (won!) the division. The Texas Rangers dominated and then faltered and were unable to survive a one-game playoff. The Angels had the greatest player on earth, as well as a whole host of superstars surrounding him, and failed to make the postseason. All that incredible, suspenseful, surprising stuff, and no mention of the Seattle Mariners. That is because the Seattle Mariners did not surprise anyone, they did exactly what was expected of them. They lost a lot of baseball games and they finished last in the division. The pitching was pretty decent, the fielding was above average, and the offense was abysmal. That’s how the Mariners roll. That’s how they’ve been rolling for quite some time. They should stop rolling. They should sit still. They should sit still and think about what they’ve done and how they could do better. Roll different.

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Justin Verlander leads all MLB pitchers in WAR; can he win a second straight Cy Young award? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The American League race has been pared down to two real contenders, the reigning winner Justin Verlander and 2010 victor Felix Hernandez. When looking at the performance of each candidate, there aren’t many ways to differentiate between their excellent seasons. Per FanGraphs, Verlander has the edge in WAR (6.5 to 5.9) and strikeout rate (8.99/9 to 8.58/9), while Hernandez has managed his walks slightly better (2.10/9 to 2.26/9) and has lower FIP (2.87 to 3.00) and xFIP (3.21 to 3.36) figures. Hernandez is within five innings pitched of Verlander, and both have been absolute workhorses. There really isn’t a way to decide which ace has had the better season, though it’s safe to say that voting for anyone else in the first position would be a grievous error.

While the junior circuit competition is down to the usual suspects, things get even more crowded in the National League. Many major media outlets have pegged Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey as the probable leader in the NL race with a week to go, and it’s not exactly difficult to see why. Dickey has been outstanding, and his perseverance and unusual path to success make him an undeniable story. Dickey trails both Kershaw and Washington’s Gio Gonzalez when it comes to WAR (he’s at 4.8 while Kershaw sits at 5.0 and Gonzalez has reached 5.4), but there are plenty of other factors that make Dickey’s case. He’s striking out 8.78/9 while walking only 2.13, and he’s the proud owner of a 2.69 ERA and 3.25 FIP.

Both Kershaw and Gonzalez have Dickey beat when it comes to strikeout rate and FIP, but Dickey has logged 16 more innings than the incumbent and 28 more innings than Gonzalez. That’s not insignificant when it comes to assessing a pitcher’s value. Dickey has essentially provided an extra couple of starts worth of quality innings, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. (I’m not sure why everyone keeps figuratively sneezing at things; I think it’s time for us to all collectively go to the figurative doctor). Still, how can you argue against the dominance of Gonzalez or the consistent mastery of Kershaw? Well, you really can’t.

Nearly every November when awards voting season comes around, I find myself frustrated with idiotic votes based on numbers and factors that I (and I think a lot of us in the online baseball community) find irrelevant and meaningless. I really don’t think 2012 is going to be that kind of season, because both leagues have multiple deserving winners and I don’t think one last start for each of these guys is going to do a whole lot to diminish their resumes. You could even argue that Johnny Cueto‘s season, which has earned gold stars for its lack of free passes and abundance of dependability, belongs in the NL conversation as well. This just might be the year in which your guy doesn’t win and you can’t do anything but shrug; the field is a fairly even one, and that’s not a bad thing.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Since the game was formalized in the late 1870′s, there have been 278 no-hitters thrown, depending on whose stats you use.  MLB.com only goes back to 1902 with their list of no-hitters, and we know there were some pitched before then – as early as 1875.  That being said, 278 no-hitters may seem like a lot, but is it still a lot when you consider those no-hitters came in a span of 137 years of baseball?  How about if you break it down to how many games were played over the course of those 137 years?

No-hitters are special.  Perfect games are incredible.  The notion that a no-hitter is becoming too common and ultimately losing its excitement is ludicrous.  So there have been ten no-hitters thrown in the last three seasons.  There will have been (at the end of this season) 14,580 regular season opportunities to throw a no-hitter.  So is 10 out of over 14,000 really all that common?  That’s just about half of a half percent of the time a no-hitter is thrown.  That’s pretty special even if this “torrid” pace keeps up.

As you flip through the sports radio channels or watch the analysts on television, or even read the articles online, too many people out there have this misconception that the no-hitter is becoming to common.  Thinking like that simply takes away from the moment a guy like Felix Hernandez should enjoy for the rest of his life.  Instead, he may drive into work and hear someone ignorantly say that they are getting bored with no-hitters.  After all, King Felix’s was the third perfect game this season and the fifth no-hitter.  Who cares?

Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but when those opinions make no sense, I think it’s fair to call them out on it.  Home runs are still exciting and they happen all the time.  There were over 4,000 home runs hit last season but almost every one of them brings up to our feet.  Obviously a home run is not nearly as exciting as a perfect game or a no-hitter.  Baseball is full of moment, and the second we try to diminish those moments by claiming they happen too often when in truth they do not, the game gets a little darker.

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