The Rays are still a solid baseball team, but now may have been the time to go for it. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Given what Tampa has been able to accomplish, it wasn’t all that surprising to see the team jettison starting pitcher James Shields to Kansas City to replenish a farm system that has taken a hit over the past couple of seasons. Adding guys like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi not only beefs up the prospect crop, but it also gives the team a chance to promote a couple of potential impact players in the relative short term. The trade was a typical and genius Rays move: deal an expensive player getting ready to hit free agency and pick up young talent.

Still, if there was ever a season the Rays might have been wise to hold off in making such a move, it’s probably this one. The Rays still have plenty of talent on the roster and figure to be in the mix, but they’re also dealing with a reduced version of the AL East for the first time in their existence. Both financially stacked squads, the Yankees and the Red Sox, are uncharacteristically down and out, something we haven’t been able to say in a very long time.

Sure, the Yankees have enough fire power to stay near the top of the division. Their roster is aging quickly, Alex Rodriguez‘s future is very much in question, and no big moves were made to shore up the nagging problems we saw in last fall’s playoffs. The Red Sox look even worse. After jumping ship on a number of bloated contracts in the blockbuster that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and others to the Dodgers, the Sox were left with a team that finished the 2012 season with just 69 wins. Ownership then appeared to push for another layer of veterans to protect against another cellar-dwelling performance, but names like Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, and Mike Napoli don’t figure to equal an AL East crown in 2013.

The Orioles had a surprise ascent to postseason baseball last season, but there isn’t much of a reason to project them to finish near the win total they managed a year ago. Only the Blue Jays, who have negotiated blockbusters of their own to revamp a team that already had talent around the edges, have actually improved their chances at winning a division that previously seemed so distinctly unwinnable.

The Rays sold high on Shields to protect their future, but this may have been the rare instance when the team really just had to push for the present. It’s hard to say the trade that brought in Myers and Odorizzi was anything less than a masterstroke, but the timing wasn’t necessarily ideal. The Rays can certainly contend in 2013, but retaining Shields and bringing in some additional offense could have pushed Tampa Bay to the top of the pack with much less to worry about than usual.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

The Royals mantra to their long-suffering fans (one winning season in the last 18 since 1994) has been “Be patient.” That gambit might have played if the Royals had ever shown any signs of improvement. But nah, they not only haven’t been able to win anything of note, they haven’t been able to win at all, or get close to .500. (more…)

Kansas City acquired a pair of right handers, James Shields and Wade Davis, from the Tampa Bay Rays. In return, the Rays get a host of minor league talent, and I do mean talent. Tampa gets outfielder Wil Myers, right hander Jake Odorizzi, lefty Mike Montogomery, and third baseman Patrick Leonard.

Shields has been one of the better starters in the league over the past two years, but comes to KC at a steep price. Image: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a classic veterans-for-prospects deal that’s made by teams in contention all the time. In this case, however, it’s a trade that is made in hopes of turning a pretender into a contender. The Royals are betting the farm that they can win in the next two seasons, because that’s all the longer they are guarenteed to have Shields in their uniform.

Shields is an outstanding starting pitcher and Davis is a guy capable of holding down a spot at the back-end of your rotation. Kansas City had already added Ervin Santana to their rotation and re-signed Jeremy Guthrie. Those four, along with holdover Bruce Chen, should give the Royals a much, much stronger starting corps than they’ve had in years. Couple them with a bullpen full of power arms and suddenly Kansas City has all the makings of a strong pitching staff.

Of course, Chen pitched to a 5.07 ERA last season, Davis has a career 4.22 ERA as a starter and 4.59 ERA away from Tropicana Field, Santana allowed an amazing 39 home runs last season and posted a 5.16 ERA, and Guthrie was so bad in the first half last year that the pitching-starved Rockies put him in the bullpen before unloading him. So to say that these additions are a sure-thing is a long ways from the truth. Every one of these four have warts. Every one raises red flags.

From a Rays perspective, you have to love this deal. Yes, losing Shields hurts, but the Rays have great depth of starting pitching (so much so that Davis couldn’t crack the rotation). They dealt away a guy who makes a pretty good salary ($9 million in 2013), which is always a concern in Tampa Bay, but they didn’t give up any of their younger starters. As good as Shields is, the Rays still have a starting rotation that would be the envy of many clubs, including the Royals.

Tampa gets Kansas City’s top two prospects, plus two additional prospects. Myers and Odorizzi are ready to help right now and could have been playing prominent roles for the Royals in 2013 and for years to come. Montgomery has been rated in the top-20 prospects in all of baseball, though he struggled mightily in 2012 and Leonard is a 20-year-old kid who slugged 14 home runs in 62 games in his first taste of pro ball last season. There is a lot of talent heading to Tampa Bay and it’s all under team control for the next six years at least.

The Royals made this trade because they think they have the pieces to win now, but I’m not even convinced this deal makes them a better club than they were last week. Do they have more recognizable names in their rotation? Sure, but many of those names comes with questions. General manager Dayton Moore has dipped into a very talented and deep minor league system and plucked out some awfully talented kids to use as trade fodder. He’s gambled that his young lineup is ready to compete and he’s done what he felt was necessary to support those young hitters and give his franchise a better chance to compete.

But it won’t be good enough just to compete; Moore has to win. If Kansas City goes from 90 losses to a playoff appearance, this deal still  could wind up being regrettable. The only way it isn’t is if Shields helps lead the Royals to a World Series title. If that happens, it won’t matter how good Myers or Odorizzi winds up being for the Rays or what happens in their careers.

Because flags fly forever. And that’s what the Royals are gambling on.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Shields has terrific endurance, but he is an overrated pitcher who has more downside than upside at this stage. He’s still a solid pitcher, but he’s more of a No. 2 than a No. 1 starter, and I don’t think he’s being viewed like that by the Rays at this point in time. He would be a good addition to the Royals staff for sure, but not at the price of Myers and a couple of more prospects. That is far too much, especially considering Myers is the best pure hitting prospect in baseball and of high value to the Royals.

The Royals could still acquire Shields if the Rays lower their asking price, and Passan did not rule out a future move by stating “for now”, so things could open up for both sides in the future. Shields was a high target for Kansas City.

Passan also tweeted that the Royals “are not in the Anibal Sanchez market”, which he notes is at around five years and over $70 million. That’s far too expensive for any teams taste, especially the Royals. Signing Sanchez at this stage isn’t a risk worth taking, so credit KC for saying “no” to this one.

This comes as a conflicting source to what Jon Paul Morosi said yesterday about Sanchez being the the Royals top target, so there is the possibility that the Royals get back in the race for both pitchers. But at this point, it looks like no deals will be made due to two high asking prices despite the talent of both pitchers and the upgrade they would give to this team.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Could David Price be on the move this winter. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

For nearly half a decade, the Tampa Bay Rays have brought relevant baseball to the state of Florida and have been a serious player in the American League East. Since dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays have won 90 games four times, made three postseason appearances, won two division titles, and represented the American League in the World Series once, losing to Philalphia in 2008.

Yet, despite all of that success, Andrew Freidman and company have begun each of the past five seasons handicapped. A perennially low payroll requires them to let talented players leave when they become overpriced and then fill those slots with young, inexpensive rookies or with low cost/high reward veterans. So far, it has been a poker game that Freidman and his team have managed beautifully, making an endless stream of what always seems to be the right choice.

The 2013 offseason may represent Freidman’s biggest gamble yet.

Quality drafting and player development have left the Rays with an overloaded pitching staff, giving them plethora of pitching options in which to trade from. Names like James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and David Price have been brandied about already this winter, with names like top prospect Chris Archer and Jeff Niemann ready to step in to any open slots. The trick is figuring out which is the best one or two are truly expendable, both giving the Rays a solid return that will help the 2013 ball club and also leave them with a quality rotation for next season.

James Shields

It seems like it is almost a yearly affair for Shields to have his name mentioned in trade talks. That happens when you are set to become garner the highest single-season contract in franchise history in 2013, even if it is a modest $9 million. Franchises like Tampa struggle to dedicate such a large amount to any one single player. However, that $9 million, as well as the $12 million he is slated to earn in 2014, also makes Shields attractive to potential suitors, as it is a relative bargain to most franchises. Shields has given the Rays 31 or more starts in each of the last six seasons, 200 plus innings, and outside of 2009 and 2010, an ERA below 4.00.

That’s solid number two material for most teams out there. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, Shields would be an excellent buffer if Clayton Kershaw is not ready to go at the beginning of the season and he also gives them an upgrade over a quickly receding Josh Beckett.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson has had an eventful couple of seasons in just his first two years in the majors. The 25-year-old right-hander won the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2011 and then followed that up with a Gold Glove in 2012. Despite that, Hellickson may be the second-most available pitcher for the Rays behind Shields. Despite a 10-11 record and a very solid 3.10 ERA in 2012, Hellickson averaged only 5-2/3 innings a start last season, and his 6.3 K/9 rate left him with an FIP of 4.60, suggesting that he was perhaps more lucky than good. Still, there is upside here and as he develops, he’ll learn to keep his pitch counts down and utilize his 41.8% ground ball rate to his advantage.

Hellickson is still not first-year arbitration-eligible until next offseason so he is drawing interest from an assortment of teams, with clubs like the Padres, Blue Jays, Twins, and Royals all having interest. However, it may be teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Diamondbacks who possess the right combination of prospects and players at the major league level to get a deal done.

David Price

It is shocking to even remotely hear that David Price may be made available this winter. However, this is the world the Rays live in. Price is a serious contender for the American League Cy Young award in 2012, after posting a 20-4 record, a league-leading 2.56 ERA, and a 5.1 fWAR. As such, Price is due a major raise through arbitration this winter when he is first year (super 2) eligible, hence the Rays motivation to possibly move either him or Shields. See a trend here?

There is no doubt that Price has lived up to his ace billing since the moment he stepped onto the mound for Tampa and teams will line up to secure his services. With the Mariners constantly denying that Felix Hernandez will be available, teams may suddenly have their consolation prize. There is no point in listing potential suitors, as any team with a major package of players to flip will be lining up at the door.

Three very worthy candidates for movement and three very worthy prizes considering a very weak pitching pool on the free agent market. Expect Freidman and the Rays to busy this winter, but I can guarantee you one thing.

None of these pitchers will be traded within the division.

Shields will be highly sought-after on the trade market this Winter. Image: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

The Tampa Bay Rays exercised a $10.5 million option year in Shields’ contract that keeps the all-star under team control through the 2013 season. Shields remains a trade candidate, however, as his salary is much more palatable for other teams than it is for the thrifty Rays. In addition, Tampa also picked up a $1.8 million option on veteran catcher Jose Molina.

Shields has been one of the American League’s top hurlers over the past two years, winning a combined 31 games and completing 14 starts in that span. Coming off a third-place finish in the Cy Youngvoting in 2011, Shields saw his ERA jump from 2.82 to a still very good 3.52 in 2012, but he actually improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio this season.

Having just finished his age-30 season, Shields has a solid history of dependability, making at least 30 starts and tossing at least 200 innings in each of the past six season. He also features one of baseball’s best change-ups. In years past, the Rays have been hesitant to deal from their glut of starting pitching depth, but Shields has now gotten to the point where it makes little sense financially to keep him around.

The free agent market will be humming with teams hot on the trail of right hander Zack Greinke, but for those who lose out, Shields figures to be the next-best available starter, or at worst just behind Anibal Sanchez. The difference being, of course, that while Greinke and Sanchez will cost only dollars, Shields will also cost a trade package that will no doubt be heavy in talent.

Los Angeles Angels 6, Texas Rangers 2

The Angels have improved themselves greatly by adding Zack Greinke to their rotation and now they have beaten the rival Rangers once again. Tuesday’s hero was Albert Pujols, who clubbed a pair of solo home runs to help down the Texas squad. Jered Weaver put up a quality start that looked even better for a while, as he held the opponent hitless through five innings. Mike Trout hit his 18th home run of the season (10 of which have come in July) and David Murphy drove in both of the runs the Rangers scored. The Angels are now just three games back of the division lead.

Albert decided it was time to hit the ball over the fence at will on Tuesday. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

Baltimore Orioles 11, New York Yankees 5

The Yankees scored all five of their runs in the bottom of the first inning, but the Orioles charged back to score seven in the top of the second. Chris Davis hit a grand slam, while teammate Nick Markakis went 3-5 with a home run and two RBI. A two-run homer by Robinson Cano was a big part of the New York scoring outburst in the first frame.

Boston Red Sox 4, Detroit Tigers 1

The Red Sox won this weather-shortened game thanks to solid work from the pitching staff. Josh Beckett, Clayton Mortensen, and Franklin Morales combined to allow just one run in 5 2/3 innings despite walking six batters. Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, and Pedro Ciriaco each drove in runs for the Red Sox. Miguel Cabrera plated the only Detroit run.

Kansas City Royals 8, Cleveland Indians 3

Luke Hochevar pitched a quality start and got help from unlikely sources in the win. Alcides Escobar went 2-4 with three RBI, while Chris Getz drove in two and Jarrod Dyson had three hits. Alex Gordon, a much more expected hero, also had three hits in the game.

Chicago White Sox 4, Minnesota Twins 3

An A.J. Pierzynski solo home run in the top of the ninth wound up being the difference as the White Sox edged the Twins. Francisco Liraino faced his former team for the first time since being traded and fared well. The lefty struck out eight and allowed just two runs in six innings of work. Denard Span had four hits for the Twins and Nick Blackburn went eight strong innings.

Tampa Bay Rays 8, Oakland Athletics 0

James Shields never got traded and that seems to be a good thing for the Rays. Shields fired a complete game shutout, allowed just three hits, didn’t walk a man, and struck out 11. B.J. Upton drove in a pair of runs and Sam Fuld had three hits.

Seattle Mariners 7, Toronto Blue Jays 2

Jason Vargas only allowed two runs in seven innings of work and benefited from a home run and three RBI courtesy of Dustin Ackley. Brendan Ryan had a three hit game for Seattle; the effort boosts his batting average to a still sickly .205. Brett Lawrie drove in both Toronto runs.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia Phillies 8, Washington Nationals 0

The Phillies have dealt away a large chunk of their Major League talent, but that didn’t stop them from upending Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg for an easy win. Jimmy Rollins belted a two-run homer, while Juan Pierre had three hits of his own. No Washington players were able to accumulate multiple hits in the contest. Cliff Lee went seven shutout innings and struck out seven; he seems like the only Phillie who didn’t find himself in a new uniform this week.

Atlanta Braves 7, Miami Marlins 1

The Braves jumped out to a quick lead and never looked back. Juan Francisco had three hits, while Brian McCann hit a home run and drove in two runs. Donnie Murphy (there are far too many baseball players named D. Murphy) hit a solo home run in the first inning for Miami.

Cincinnati Reds 7, San Diego Padres 6

Homer Bailey and Jason Marquis both got crushed early on, as the game was quickly tied at six and stayed that way until Brandon Phillips hit the eventual game-winning solo homer in the seventh. Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier each also went deep for Cincinnati, while Cameron Maybin cleared the fence for San Diego.

Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Chicago Cubs 0

A.J. Burnett shut out the new-look Cubs with a complete game effort featuring eight strikeouts and just one base hit. Neil Walker hit a grand slam in the first inning, while outfielder Andrew McCutchen chimed in with his usual three hits. Pinch hitter Adrian Cardenas was the only Cub to get a hit off Burnett.

Milwaukee Brewers 10, Houston Astros 1

Yovani Gallardo pitched seven great innings and let his offense tee off on every Houston pitcher who entered the game. Aramis Ramirez went 3-4 with four RBI and a home run to lead the offensive attack. Corey Hart also homered and drove in three runs for Milwaukee.

St. Louis Cardinals 11, Colorado Rockies 6

The Cardinals had to fight the Rockies hard to get this win, but five late runs helped seal the deal. Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, and David Freese all homered and had multi-hit games. Allen Craig got into the act as well by reaching base all five trips and driving in three runs. Josh Rutledge hit a home run and drove in three for Colorado.

Arizona Diamondbacks 8, Los Angeles Dodgers 2

The Dodgers may have won at the trading deadline, but they didn’t win this baseball game. This loss puts them a game behind the Giants and just 2 1/2 up on the D-Backs. Paul Goldschmidt homered and had three hits, Miguel Montero had a three-run shot of his own, and Chris Johnson provided a three hit game. Wade Miley went eight innings and allowed one run while striking out seven.

San Francisco Giants 4, New York Mets 1

Vintage Tim Lincecum showed up to help his team reclaim sole possession of first place in the NL West Tuesday. The Freak struck out seven and allowed one run in seven innings of work. The newly-acquired Marco Scutaro went 2-3 with a walk, a run scored, and one RBI in the victory.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Ervin Santana has struggled this season. For this reason, the Angels are looking harder at SP help. (Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

average.  They have been in talks with the Rays for both James Shields and Wade Davis.  However, Gonzalez says:

A source with knowledge of the team’s thinking described the Angels’ chances of acquiring a starter as “below average and diminishing” on Thursday. The asking prices are too high, the competition for pitching is too intense – largely due to the additional Wild Card that has more teams in the hunt than ever – and the Angels don’t have an abundance of intriguing prospects to offer up.

But they do have Peter Bourjos.  Many teams are interested in the young center fielder.  While he is struggling this season, most GM’s can look past that and understand his talent lies in development and defense.  If the Angels are to make a deal for a starting pitcher, they will almost certainly need to include Bourjos in the deal. Jerry Dipoto has said he is unwilling to move Bourjos though.

Wade Davis or Jame Shields are the most likely options on the market for the Angels, and truthfully, Davis may be easier for the Angels to get.  Shields is being looked at by numerous teams, and as each trade is made that lands a starting pitcher with a new team, the market for starters shrinks.  The competition for a trade including Shields may price him out of the Angels’ range.  Davis, on the other hand, does not seem to be drawing as much interest.

No matter the case, Dipoto has to at least try to make a deal.  The Angels’ team ERA is running about middle of the pack in the Majors this year.  They could certainly use some help especially if Dan Haren isn’t 100% for the rest of the season.  While a move for a starter becomes increasingly unlikely with each day that passes, the Angels need to push hard in this department.

For more on the Angels, be sure to check out Halo Hangout.  

Wade Davis has drawn interest from the Los Angeles Angels. (Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

seems to have broken down.  That hasn’t discouraged the Angels from keeping an open line of communication with the Tampa Bay Rays.  And in doing so, the Angels may be able to land another Rays’ pitcher: Wade Davis.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Angels have been talking to the Rays about both Shields and Davis.  If they can’t get Shields, they want Davis.  Davis is younger and under team control for longer.  Also, the perception is the Angels would have to give up less to get him.

Davis can not be a free agent until after the 2014 season.  However, the Rays have three team options that could carry Davis’ contract through the 2017 season.  That amount of team control is attractive as long as Davis can continue to perform.

He was moved back to the bullpen this year after spending the last two seasons as a starter.  Rosenthal thinks the Angels would use him as a starter, but so far this season, Davis has a 2.70 ERA, the lowest of his career.  He is excelling out of the ‘pen.  Last season, Davis started 29 games and posted a 4.45 ERA.  In his career, he has a 4.06 ERA.  All things considered, he makes for a nice package for the Angels who have struggled with their pitching at times.

Angels centerfielder Peter Bourjos seems the likely candidate for any deal the Tampba Bay.  Los Angeles feels they can part with him, and the Rays feel they need him.  B.J. Upton is a free agent after this season, and Tampa Bay will need to replace him in the outfield.  Bourjos is hitting .230/.290/.336.  However, he is a much better hitter in his career.  In three seasons, he has hit .249/.301/.407 – right near league average for OPS.

Should the Angels not be able to make a deal for Shields, Davis is a legitimate back-up plan.  Maybe he should be the primary plan.

For more on the Angels, be sure to check out Halo Hangout.  

For more on the Rays, be sure to check out Rays Colored Glasses.