Sept 2, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets left fielder Jason Bay (44) watches the flight of his grand slam during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Mets won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

We had a bit of a false alarm with this one yesterday, but it appears as if all systems are go on a free agent deal between the Seattle Mariners and the Jason Bay, this according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

Bay, 34, is a Washington resident and attended college at nearby Gonzaga University. The details of the contract are not yet known, but it is expected to be a major league deal. Bay was receiving interest from multiple teams, with the Cleveland Indians among those showing serious consideration.

Bay was bought out of the final year of his deal with the New York Mets last month, making him a free agent. He has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness over the past three seasons in New York, but the Mariners are hoping there is a bounce-back in his future.

Bay produced a .165/.257/.299 line in 215 plate appearances with New York last season. His last big year came in 2009, his final season with the Red Sox. That year, Bay finished seventh in the MVP balloting and slugged 36 home runs and added a .921 OPS.

Bay was limited to 70 games in 2012. Image: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Bay was bought out by the New York Mets earlier in the off-season after an extremely disappointing season and an underwhelming run in the Big Apple. He’s from British Columbia, so Seattle is about as close to home as he can possibly play and stay in the big leagues. He also attended college at Gonzaga.

It makes sense for Seattle given their dire need for offense and it won’t be much of a risk given that Bay is getting $21 million yet from the Mets. He figures to be a cheap sign.

Bay had been drawing at least some level of interest from a few other teams including the Boston Red Sox. He also made sense for teams like Cleveland and Detroit, who both need a right handed bat in left field.

While Cabrera’s mention was more speculative (Hoynes could see a fit but didn’t note any team interest), Bay was someone he referred to as being “on the radar” of Indians GM Chris Antonetti. In his season-and-a-half playing for new Indians manager Terry Francona in Boston, Bay produced an OPS of .915 and clubbed 45 home runs with 156 RBI. In the three seasons since, however, Bay has amassed a mere 26 long balls and 124 RBI while playing for the Mets at CitiField.

Cabrera could use a short-term contract to prove himself as a player without PEDs. Image: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Progressive Field in Cleveland isn’t a hitter’s haven like Boston, but it is much more hitter-friendly than CitiField has been, especially when allowing home runs. The Tribe has a very real need for a right handed bat, preferably one with power that can play left field. Bay fits all of those criteria and you’d think the familiarity with Francona would help. Of course, the Red Sox were none too interested in re-signing Bay when his contract ended following the 2009 season. It would stand to reason that Francona was at least consulted about that decision. So maybe the devil you know, in this situation, is not quite as attractive as the devil you don’t.

If there ever was a “devil you don’t” know, it’s Cabrera. Not only does he have no history playing for the Indians or any of their coaches,  Cabrera has been all over the map as a player in his career. When he first came up with New York, he looked like a guy that had a lot of talent and could develop into an everyday player. In Atlanta he was a mess on the field and wildly unpopular in the clubhouse. The Braves couldn’t dump him fast enough. Then he goes to Kansas City on a low-risk deal for the Royals and has a career year, which lead to the trade to San Francisco, the all-star game MVP, the too-good-to-be-true numbers and the fallout from the PED suspension.

Is Cabrera they player Atlanta couldn’t wait to unload or the guy who lead the league in hits and hitting while on the field with the Giants? Is he the guy who produced 200 hits and 44 doubles for the Royals in 2011? All this depends on how much stock you put into the effects of PEDs and how long you think Cabrera got away with using them. Keep in mind though that Cabrera will play next season at age 28, so if ever he was going to be the player the Braves had thought he was when they traded for him, he’ll be in his peak seasons over the next three years.

With either player, the risk is probably low. Bay needs a short-term deal to rebuild his value ahead of free agency next year. Cabrera might still land a multi-year deal as it seems he’s at least being discussed by several teams with outfield needs. A one-year deal for him might serve the player well also.

Cleveland gave almost 450 at bats to the likes of Shelley Duncan and Johnny Damon in left field last year and the reult was a collection on left fielders that combined to produce an OPS under .600. These type of buy-low players can use a team like the Indians to give them at bats while not investing large dollars. Adding one of the two seems a very wise move for Antonetti and the Tribe. If they decide to trade Shin-Soo Choo, they’d be smart to try to sign both.

Jason Bay hasn’t always been the hobbled shell we see today. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PREWIRE

I’m very doubtful Bay, still just 34, will ever catch on somewhere and find a meaningful role to call his own. His bat is slower, hit legs aren’t really even legs anymore, and signing somewhere certainly doesn’t mean that playing time is guaranteed. Bay’s career has certainly been derailed by a myriad of injuries, but it’s worth taking a moment to look back at what kind of player Bay once was. He was an undercover star for a long time, and it’s tragic that he didn’t get to step onto the big stage until after he’d been diminished at an early age.

Jason Bay started out as a hopeful Padres prospect at the age of 24 in 2003. Bay was already considered a legitimate hitter, and he did the most he could with the 107 PA he was given that season. Bay hit a ridiculous .287/.421/.529 with four homers in his brief cup of coffee, quickly showing that he had the power and patience scouts had claimed him to possess. After a trade to the Pirates, Bay just kept on hitting. Bay’s defense was certainly shaky, but his speed gave analysts hope for improvement, and he did manage to get steadily better before a series of injuries to his legs made him look a lot more like an extremely large lawn gnome in the outfield than an actual living, breathing baseball player.

Seriously, though, Bay was always on the verge of something huge. In 2004, he posted a .382 wOBA and whacked 26 homers in just 472 PA. That partial season was worth about 2.0 WAR per FanGraphs, but it paled in comparison to what he would do in 2005. Bay just raked in ’05, hitting .306/.402/.559 with 32 home runs and 21 steals. While his defense still needed work, Bay had managed to become one of the best hitters in the league and earn a reputation as an excellent base runner as well. Bay was worth 6.1 WAR that season, and he pretty much held up his proficiency the next season. Bay’s 2006 included a walk rate near 15%, 35 home runs, and even a positive fielding review from UZR. Things were looking up.

But then, just as quickly as he came, Jason Bay receded back into the darkness thanks to unfailing injury problems and random aches and pains. Bay was able to cobble together a mostly complete season in 2007, but perhaps he shouldn’t have. The Pirates outfielder hit a paltry .247/.327/.418 and was panned by advanced metrics both in the field and on the bases. Things had bottomed out for Bay at the age of 28 right when he was supposed to be hitting his stride.

Bay recovered somewhat in 2008, and his fast start earned him a trade to the contending Boston Red Sox. With the Sox, Bay did plenty at the plate for a year and a couple of months. Bay posted a near-.900 OPS for the Bo Sox in his two 2008 months, and then he set a career high with 36 homers in 2009 while logging an OPS+ mark of 134 (average is 100, and this metric gauges a player against others at his position). Bay was still hitting, but his knee problems continued to downgrade his mobility.

The Mets apparently believed Bay, still only 30 at the time, was going to shun the injury bug and finish out his career productively. Their gamble obviously went awry, and Bay only topped 500 PA once in three New York years. Bay’s injuries simply caught up with him a lot sooner than anyone would have liked. Bay seems to be a genuinely nice guy, and he was a lot of fun to watch during his prime when he was a threat to go deep, take a walk, or steal a base any time he wanted. It would be great if Bay was right that he still has some of his former self left to use, but memories are probably the best thing we have when it comes to remembering Bay at his best.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Bay will seek employment elsewhere after being bought ouut by the Mets. Image: Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

The New York Mets announced that a buyout agreement has been reached with left fielder Jason Bay, thereby making Bay an unrestricted free agent effective immediately.

Bay’s contract has been a disappointment from Day One in New York and he was down to one season left on his deal. Instead of having to wait out the final year of his contract in New York, Bay agreed to have some of the $21 million he’s owed deferred, according to Joel Sherman. Sherman tweets that Bay will get all $21 million he’s owed, which breaks down to his $16 million in salary, $3 million in a buyout of his 2014 option, and $2 million left of his signing bonus.

The Mets could have simply released Bay and would have owed him the same amount, but they save some money upfront by being able to defer payments to their now former outfielder.

It’s unknown at this time how much money is being deferred or for how long. This type of buyout is not common in baseball, though it does stir up memories of another former Met who disappointed in Queens. Bobby Bonilla agreed to a similar arrangement when he was bought out by the Mets at the end of his career.

According to a team source, there is “zero” chance the beleaguered outfielder will be released this winter or asked to compete for a job in spring training.

The Mets picked Bay off the free agent market following the 2009 season; one which was a banner year for the former NL Rookie of the Year. Bay had authored a .921 OPS for he Red Sox that season and pounded 36 home runs. Having just completed his age-30 season, and with a track record of elite-level hitting that went back to 2004, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Bay would wind up with a big money deal. And he did.

Bay has had very few shining moments since joining the Mets. Image: Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

Though Bay was never a strong defensive outfielder during his time in Pittsburgh, he seemed to take a step backward with the glove in Boston. Despite having lived with the likes of Manny Ramirez in left for so many years, the Red Sox soured on Bay in part because of his glovework. The Mets, always in search of a way to knock the Yankees off the back pages, were getting ready to open Citi Field and adding a premium bat like Bay’s made perfect sense.

But sometimes things just don’t work out the way they had been planned.

The fences at Citi Field were unbelievably deep and many of the biggest thumpers in baseball complained about the dimensions. New York had seemingly undermined their own strengths in neutralizing the right handed power bats in their lineup. At the same time that Bay was discovering his stadium-aided warning track power, his body began to betray him. Bay managed just 95 games in 2010 and homered only six times. He was still driving the ball well at times, as evidenced by his 20 doubles, but a .749 OPS was dragged down by a slugging percentage of just .402.

It would get worse.

Bay has suffered an array of injuries over his time with the Mets and it seems his power has been sapped by each one. His lugging percentage has declined in each season in New York, all the way to a paltry .294 this season; a year in which Bay has posted a .155 average and .525 OPS.

The Mets are on the hook for $16 million in salary for 2013, plus at least $3 million in a buyout of the option year on Bay’s contract. That 2014 option vests with 600 plate appearances in 2013 and is worth $17 million. At the time Bay signed the deal, it seemed almost unthinkable that his option wouldn’t vest considering how durable Bay had been to that point. So while Bay’s missed time has compounded the issues he has faced in New York and made their investment in him such an abject disaster, Bay’s new-found frailty could wind up saving the Wilpons a cool $14 million.

But even if he is healthy and somewhat productive in 2013, I can’t image the New York brass will let him reach that magic number of plate appearances too let that option kick in.

June 14, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; New York Mets left fielder Jason Bay (44) touches home plate after hitting a home run in the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

There is no timetable at this point for Jason Bay, and below is what Sandy Alderson had to say about the injury.

“I don’t think we know how serious it is yet, and may not know for at least a few days,” Alderson said.

It looks like nobody knows how severe Bay’s injury is; not even the Mets or their general manager. He will be evaluated today after seeing a specialist yesterday, but the general thought is that Bay will be out for a significant amount of time. We’ll get a better idea of the severity of the injury in time with more testing.

In 83 plate appearances this season, Jason Bay has a 70 wRC+ and has been worth below the replacement level after having an average year with the bat in 2011. He is on pace for a 0.5-1 WAR year, so losing Bay for a significant amount of time isn’t a blow to the Mets. However, it’s never good to see a player out for a while with an injury, especially a concussion. Hopefully some good results come back from the tests and Bay’s injury isn’t as severe as most of us think.

Follow Joe Soriano on Twitter here. Check out Rising Apple for more on Jason Bay and the New York Mets.