Los Angeles Angels right fielder Josh Hamilton has got a big swing, but he hasn’t been connecting as often as usual for his new team in 2013. Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

How is it that owner Arte Moreno goes out and spends more money than anyone else in the baseball world two years running to pluck the best-hitting free agent on the market and his team gets worse?

Don’t you think he is sitting in the owner’s box quietly fuming, wondering just what the heck is going on with his sure-fire investments? Coup no. 1 was signing Albert Pujols for the 2012 season. Maybe he paid a little bit too much for too long, but did anyone believe that Albert wasn’t going to remain one of the premier hitters in the game for another four years or so? Well, it hasn’t worked that way, not yet at least.

Coup no. 2 was signing Josh Hamilton for the 2013 season. Once again it could be questioned whether Hamilton was paid too much for too long, but he was a stud hitter bound to produce big numbers for another three years, at least. Yet Hamilton has done nada.

And the scariest part of the whole shebang is that the Angels are fighting it out for the cellar of the American League West Division with the Houston Astros, not fighting it out for the division crown with the Texas Rangers. The Angels are two-and-a-half games ahead of the Astros and nine games behind the Rangers.

Now it is only mid-May, so all hope is not lost, especially given the way the Rangers forfeited its early-season lead last year. But after spending big and shaping what he thought might have been a World Series contender last year, Moreno couldn’t have been too happy to find himself as the boss of a team that missed the playoffs altogether. And the Angels are on the same grim path right now.

At the end of the baseball day Thursday Pujols was batting .238. He did have five home runs and 19 RBIs, which is OK, but his average is around his weight. Hamilton had four home runs and 11 runs batted in and was batting .213 and that’s primarily because he’s been on a hot streak lately. Each of these guys is earning around $25 million a year.

Now Pujols and Hamilton are perfectly capable of going on huge, month-long tears, where they do the Roy Hobbs-knock-the-cover-off-the-ball thing. Anyone who is a real baseball fan would like to see them break out of their slumps and get their numbers back into the stratosphere. This has nothing to do with being an Angels fan, though of course they are the most disappointed among the spectators.

From age 21 to 30, Pujols was being compared to the best players in the history of the game. Then, in 2011 he got stuck on 99 RBIs and a .299 batting average, the first time he missed out on 100 and .300 in his career. Last year he started very slowly, but ended up with 30 homers and 105 RBIs, but had the lowest average of his career at .285.

So what’s up with Pujols? There have been some injuries, but none that knocked him out for a season, or most of one. His on-base-percentage has sunk like the Titantic, over the last three seasons dropping from .366 in 2011 to .322 this season after a more normal .414 in 2010. Pujols is only 33, so he is not too old. But something is off, for sure.

As for Hamilton, for the last several years he has been the most feared slugger in the American League. He won a Most Valuable Player award. He won a batting title. Wherever he traveled he bashed dents into outfield walls with his line drives when his fly balls weren’t carrying over them.

Suddenly he can’t hit at all. Going into the weekend Hamilton had 41 strikeouts to eight walks. That’s the kind of flailing reserved for rookies who don’t recognize the curveball. Hamilton smacked 43 home runs with 128 RBIs last year and he is just 31.

It was considered very unlikely that the Angels would take a run at Hamilton after signing Pujols to a long-term deal the year before. It is almost impossble for the average fan to believe that both men lost their hitting stroke as soon as they moved to the West Coast.

And if baseball fans can’t fathom it, how do you think Arte Moreno feels? He thought he was hiring a modern-day Babe Ruth-Lou Gehrig combo. So far he probably feels he ended up with Abbott and Costello instead.

John Farrell’s return to Toronto was received with a chorus of boos. (Image Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports)

John Farrell returned to the scene of the crime Friday and Toronto Blue Jays fans razzed him. Josh Hamilton returned to the scene of the crime Friday and Texas Rangers fans booed him.

Their crimes were leaving their previous employers for new jobs with other teams and those that they left behind in the grandstands felt jilted, insulted, abused because John and Josh liked someone better.

To my way of thinking, booing in sports is 90 percent misguided. For the most part it’s a waste of energy because it accomplishes nothing. I’d say it is visceral, but I think when it comes to crowd situations that’s probably not quite true either. There’s probably a bit of follow-the-leader involved.

Farrell was the Blue Jays manager and he left to become the Boston Red Sox manager. I didn’t even know that Farrell was popular enough in Ontario to be booed for his departure. After all, he wasn’t coaching the Maple Leafs. Of course he got the best revenge (though I doubt he was thinking of it that way) when the Sox beat the Jays, 6-4, in the opener of their weekend series. He’ll probably put up with boos for a couple of days and by the time the Red Sox return for another series the fans won’t muster enough energy to boo him. That will be particularly true if Toronto is in first place as most predictors have them slated for the American League East Division this season.

This opening week journey for Hamilton is a little more intriguing. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim slugger opened in right field for his new team against the Cincinnati Reds, a team he once played for when he was a younger man. It was his first visit back since 2007 and when he was with the Reds he had not yet blossomed into a big star. Hamilton’s drug and alcohol addictions and his suspensions and comeback have been well-documented. But most of that didn’t affect Reds fans so he was pretty much greeted at Great American Ball Park as just another player.

Not so at in Arlington, Texas Friday. Hamilton made his reputation as a star with the Rangers, but he left for the Angels–the team’s American League West Division rival–for a $125 million deal in the off-season. His departure was viewed as a full-fledged betrayal and that’s why the fans let him have it. I’m not saying I agree with that approach, just that you can pinpoint the reason.

I’ve never been an advocate of booing players and oftentimes when boos ring out in a ballpark I don’t even know what they’re all about. Booing the umpire for a blown call is something I can understand, although home crowd bias determining what is a blown call frequently invalidates the effort. Once in a while an ump will mess up a big, important call that can be a game changer and fan recourse is booing.

Hamilton was a major hero in Texas, making five All-Star teams and winning an AL Most Valuable Player award. It stung fans that he couldn’t or wouldn’t accommodate the Rangers and they booed him when he was introduced in the Angels’ starting lineup and when he came to bat. They mock cheered him when he struck out.

“I’d lie to you if I said it didn’t bother me a little bit,” Hamilton said after Texas’ 3-2 win. “But it didn’t like overwhelm me. It’s what I expected.”

Most likely all three segments of that statement are accurate. Hamilton was being more honest than most players who deny hearing boos or say they don’t bother them at all. But I’m sure it was true that he expected some kind of negative reception. Texas fans will also likely keep it up all weekend and then may not bother booing again the rest of the season when the Angels come to town.

Right now Hamilton’s biggest problem isn’t what the Rangers fans think of him, but what the Angels fans think of him. Four games into the season he had recorded one hit in 16 official at-bats. It’s one thing to have your enemies boo you, but if he doesn’t heat up Hamilton might face his friends booing him. It’s time for the man to have a Josh Hamilton-type hitting day–a few hits here, a few home runs there.  Which of course is also the best reply to boos.

Josh Hamilton should work out just fine–for now. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

When a player has Hamilton’s talent and his ability to put together seasons like his otherworldly 2010 (.359/.411/.633, 8.4 WAR), it can be extremely easy to overlook signs that perhaps he isn’t as untouchable on the field as he often appears. One of the most concerning aspects of Hamilton’s game at the plate is that he has been merely very good on the road. A lot of players have splits that favor their home performance, sure, but Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has rightfully gained a reputation as a huge stat-booster.

While Hamilton was nearly the same hitter on the road as he was at home in 2012, his career numbers tell a different story. The 31-year-old slugger has posted a career line of .315/.373/.594 at home against a line of .292/.354/.504 on the road. That’s a big difference, and even if the road version of Josh Hamilton is still an extremely good player, he isn’t the kind of guy who makes good on a contract that pays him $25 million per season.

Another potential problem that will only make itself more evident as Hamilton grows older is his defensive ability. Hamilton has consistently been rated highly by UZR for his work in the outfield, but all of that changed when he posted a -12.6 mark in 2012. This could certainly be a random variation that comes from a small sample size–advanced fielding metrics are still very susceptible to those sorts of problems–but it could also be a sign that Hamilton is losing a step. This isn’t as big of a deal for the Angels as it would have been for a club intending for Hamilton to play center, as Mike Trout already has that position more than covered.

Scouring Hamilton’s splits and potentially inconsistent defensive data might seem like nitpicking, but these are valid concerns a team needs to have when doling out this much money for five years in a row. More than any evidence we have seen so far, the Angels need to be worried about the portion of Hamilton’s career they have chosen to acquire. Hamilton has already likely give Texas the five best years of his career; he’ll turn 32 during the 2013 season and 37 during his last year in L.A. If Hamilton’s less than patient approach at the plate, defensive degradation, and ability to thoroughly mash outside of Arlington aren’t a big problem now, they’re almost certain to be within a couple of years.

It’s always risky to sign a player to a contract this large, but with Hamilton it’s doubly so. He’s likely headed toward slight decline at any moment, he’s already shown signs of slowing down, and he’s been just about as injury prone as any player in baseball. More troubling is that in Hamilton’s six-year big league career so far, FanGraphs has valued his production at a very impressive 25 WAR. Why is that a problem? Because based on the present value of a win, his efforts have been worth around $107 million. That’s over six seasons instead of five, and it’s over the prime years of Hamilton’s career.

The Angels have a deadly lineup and a well-balanced roster right now, and they’re primed to make a run in October. For their sake, they’d better hurry up and win a World Series championship now before their big spending gets really ugly.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Talk about oneupmanship from the Angels to the Texas Rangers. And talk about a statement to us baseball observers who thought that the Angels might possibly have previously limited out on their budget. They didn’t even blush when they were buying the most coveted player in off-season free agency with a five-year, $125 million deal. So much for any thought that Albert Pujols broke the bank the year before with his $240 million contract. (more…)

Daniels took a relaxed approach to the pursuit of Hamilton this off-season. It was the Rangers position to allow Hamilton to explore the free agent market without making a significant offer too keep their slugger. It was assumed, perhaps even discussed, that Hamilton would circle back to Texas periodically and check in. Daniels says the team expected to have the chance to match any offers.

When Hamilton agreed with Los Angeles, however, Daniels didn’t get that call until it was already too late.

“It wasn’t like NFL restricted free agency where he was going to come to us with an offer sheet,” Daniels said. “I never thought [Moye] was going to tell us to the dollar what he had, but we fully expected to hear from [Hamilton]  before he signed, not after.”

Hamilton averaged 101 RBI per year during his five-season run in Texas. Image: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

From Hamilton’s perspective, it’s hard to blame him for how this went down. His agent, Michael Moye, had been engaged in extension talks a year ago with the Rangers, but the ballclub shelved those late in the Winter. When the 2012 season ended, Hamilton got word that Texas would be waiting to hear from him, but rumors surfaced early on that Texas wouldn’t go beyond three years in an offer to their superstar.

Meanwhile, Hamilton sat in the shadows and watched as Texas made a run at Justin Upton, poured their resources into Zack Greinke, and discussed trades and signings they deemed more important than Hamilton.It’s not hard to see how he might have felt disrespected by the club he’s spent the past five years with.

Maybe it would have been different had Daniels an inkling that the Angels would be involved. Hamilton was being courted aggressively by the lowly Mariners, but Daniels likely didn’t take them seriously. Even with Hamilton, Seattle wouldn’t be in the same class as Texas. Milwaukee wasn’t talking about the same kind of deal Hamilton got from the Angels, neither was Boston or Philadelphia. Daniels was confident Hamilton would come crawling back and graciously accept the “generous” three year offer to stay in Texas.

Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and owner Arte Moreno had been prioritizing re-signing Greinke, but lost him to the other Los Angeles team. They were able to add a couple of starting pitchers with relatively low salaries and all of a sudden they realized they had all this money previously earmarked for Greinke that was burning a hole in their pocket.

The Angels obviously get significantly better with this move and the rival Rangers are left wondering what just happened.

A week ago, it looked like Texas would get Greinke and like they would get Upton. They missed on Greinke, were too stubborn to get Upton, and then missed on James Shields as well.

Now, they’ve missed on Hamilton.

Suddenly the Rangers have subtracted Hamilton, Mike Napoli, Michael Young, and Ryan Dempster this Winter.

Jon Daniels can cry about how he feels betrayed by Hamilton, but it was his over-confidence that resulted in the Rangers being the biggest loser of the off-season.

Hamilton shifts the balance of power in the AL West. Image: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

For the second consecutive off-season, the Angels came from off the board to sign the best available hitter. Last season it was Albert Pujols when no one was talking about them. This year, it is Josh Hamilton.

The contract is being reported by Yahoo sports as being for five seasons and $125 million. Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels has confirmed that hamilton has reached an agreement with Hamilton. Jon Heyman says the Rangers were never given the opportunity to match the Angels’ offer. It had been reported that Hamilton would afford the Rangers that luxury.

The 2010 American League MVP, Hamilton joins a lineup that already includes Pujols and Mike Trout. Hamilton figures to slide into the fifth spot and play left field, giving the Angels one of the best lineups in all of baseball.

The signing will obviously have ripples throughout the game. Los Angeles finished thrid in the division a season ago, but scores a direct victory over their rivals with this move. Not only do the Angels gets significantly better, but Texas looks like the biggest losers of the off-season, especially given where they were a week ago.

At the Winter Meetings, the Rangers were the team involved in seemingly every big name. They were the favorites to sign Zack greinke, but lost him to the Dodgers. They were working to trade for James Shields, but he went to the Royals. Texas has been working hard to land Justin Upton, but wouldn’t part with a shortstop. Evenetually, Arizona landed Didi Gregorius and now Upton seems to be off the market.

Everyone assumed that Hamilton was going back to Texas.

And now they’ve missed out on him as well.

In Los Angeles, Hamilton’s signing probably pushed Pete Bourjos back to the bench and he’ll be a sought-after commodity on the trade market. The Mets have already been mentioned as a club that could be a player for him, perhaps in an R.A. Dickey trade. LA still has Vernon Wells on the roster as well, who is a very expensive fourth outfielder.

For the Rangers, who have traded away Michael Young and watched as Hamilton and Mike Napoli have left via free agency, you have to wonder what’s next. Michael Bourn is still on the market, as is Nick Swisher. They could simply decide to allow some of their young players to see some significant time on the field.

Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

While Hamilton is sure to get an impressive annual value in whatever contract he signs, teams have thus far expressed reluctance in handing out more than three years due to the slugger’s continual health concerns and — perhaps — his checkered past. With Seattle making such a point to woo Hamilton away from the Lone Star State, it’s not an unreasonable assumption that they will give in and start tacking on the extra years no other team seems ready to include.

It’s also not unreasonable to assume that Hamilton should be more than capable of providing his usual 4.0 WAR performance in the next several seasons for whomever he ends up signing with, as he’s still about six months shy of his 32nd birthday — several prime seasons may still be ahead of him.

However, he’s not likely to get less injury prone as he ages; in fact, the opposite is true, and aside from the one truly otherworldly season in 2010, Hamilton has never put together up numbers that rank him among the elite hitters in baseball. He’s a talented player to be certain, but I think there’s a lot of merit to exercising caution when it comes to signing him, and while the Mariners are in desperate need of offense, putting together a massive deal that stretches out through the 2018 season may be a little on the hasty side.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

Also added in recent weeks has been Jonny Gomes, no doubt seen primarily as a back-up outfielder and back-up designated hitter. He is a guy who can be valuable in certain spots.

Free agent Mike Napoli has left the Texas Rangers for a three-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The 2012 season was one of the great disasters in recent franchise history. The manager and the players didn’t get along. Players didn’t get along with other players. The team had more injuries than it had suffered in 40 years. Management decided that new faces and a new attitude were needed to revive a team that already seemed to be feeling a hangover from the sour finish of 2011 when the squad blew the playoffs that September.

Bringing aboard Mike Napoli with a three-year, $39-million deal seems like a very solid hire. Catching was not a Sox strong point last season. Smart, good move. Bringing in Victorino, also with a three-year, $39 million deal, is less scintillating, but potentially useful. Not a slam dunk either way.

The real thing I wonder about is why the acquisition of Victorino means that Jacoby Ellsbury must go. There’s been a lot of chatter about that the last couple of days. If Victorino is in and Ellsbury is out I’m not sure the Red Sox are any better off. Keeping both of them seems to be a much better idea.

Unless the Red Sox really go all in on chasing down and capturing Josh Hamilton. Hamilton could create mayhem in Fenway Park and his arrival would stir things up big-time in the American League. The main problem with Hamilton is that he wants too much money for too long a time. Last I heard he was sitting on a seven-year, $175 million contract request and not budging when reality dictates that he should not be signed to a deal longer than four years at the most. Hamilton is 31 and turns 32 early in the 2013 season.

Word leaked out from the winter meetings this week that the Red Sox and Hamilton met, although autographs were not exchanged. Hamilton had to at least talk to the Red Sox. He owed it to his swing to explore Fenway Park. I’m not sure what team out there is willing to go to seven years for Hamilton at an annual rate of $25 million. Typically, only the Yankees would be crazy enough to cut a deal of that sort. But the Yankees don’t seem up to such showmanship right now with all of their older, rich players with injuries complicating matters.

There is no other comparable position player prize on the market, so Hamilton does have that going for him. He would do well in Boston, and after dispensing with Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and others the Red Sox do have the money in the war chest. Some might prefer they spend it on a couple of pitchers and keep their options open for later, at the trade deadline if this team has actually jelled and is threatening to win something in 2013.

There is an ever-present feeling that if the Texas Rangers wanted to re-sign Josh Hamilton, they could have done so by now.

Upton may be the key to deciding where both Greinke and Hamilton land. Image: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers, it seems, are holding up the entire free agent market as they try to figure out a way to get everything they want this Winter. That wish list includes one pitcher and one hitter. All indications are, however, that they cannot sign both Hamilton and Greinke. It has to be one or the other.

From the looks of things, the Rangers would prefer Greinke and another hitter to Hamilton and another pitcher. Texas has been working hard to land Arizona’s Justin Upton, but thus far have been unwilling to part with shortstop Elvis Andrus in order to complete the deal. Instead, the Rangers have been recruiting additional teams to try to appease the Diamondbacks’ desire for a shortstop.

All the while, Greinke waits for the Rangers. The Dodgers wait for Greinke. Hamilton waits for the Rangers. Seattle waits for Hamilton.

Rangers president Nolan Ryan told reporters yesterday that signing both Greinke and Hamilton was not out of the question, but the additional money would have to be approved by ownership. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have an unlimited supply of funds and plan not only to sign Greinke, but to add another starting pitcher as well, perhaps even Anibal Sanchez, who is likely to get a five or six year deal worth $75-90 million himself.

Seattle, according to reports this morning, have made significant progress toward a deal with Hamilton, but the former MVP has agreed to allow the Rangers an opportunity to match before he signs elsewhere. Texas won’t make such a decision without first knowing what Greinke will do and they don’t appear ready to offer Greinke a deal he’ll accept until they have a decision on Upton.

If the Rangers want to, the feeling is that they can get the balls rolling in short order. All it would seemingly take is a willingness to let go of Andrus. The longer they wait, the better the odds that they wind up missing out on both Hamilton and Greinke. Eventually, someone will blink.

Hamilton is the biggest fish on the free agent market. Image: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

According to Rosenthal, Hamilton may not be unemployed much longer as he and the Rangers are getting closer to an agreement on what would be a four-year contract.

Sources: #Rangers, Hamilton making progress. Deal, if reached, likely would be 4 yrs. But still possible another team could beat TEX offer.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2012

Hamilton has been connected to several clubs, as you might imagine given his production, but most have openly balked at a contract of seven years, which is what Hamilton was said to have been seeking. Last month, Rangers GM Jon Daniels indicated that they had maintained interest in Hamilton, but it had been reported that Texas would not go beyond three years to retain the 2010 AL MVP.

Hamilton slugged 43 home runs for Texas last season and has drawn interest from Seattle, Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore.