Justin Morneau will need to regain his old form to stick around in Minnesota. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

With every free agent not named Kyle Lohse pretty much settled in with his new team, transaction attention has shifted toward contract extensions for players and teams wanting to avoid free agency after the 2013 season. One player who has found himself in the news wires over the past week or so is Twins first baseman Justin Morneau. Morneau has been very open about wanting to remain in Minnesota, the team he has spent his entire career with. But should the retooling Twins even consider keeping him around?

Morneau was a top prospect in the Twins organization after being selected in the third round of the 1999 amateur draft. He took home the 2006 American League MVP and was on track for a banner career before various injuries (notably a severe concussion) derailed him, and he hasn’t ever been the same hitter since. Up through the point in 2010 at which Morneau suffered his injury, he was having a career season. The first baseman was hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 homers in 348 PA, and he was showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, Morneau was a career .286/.358/.511 hitter up to that point, and it really looked as if his approach would enable even better performance.

Unfortunately, Morneau suffered a head injury in 2010, and ever since his bat has gone missing. Morneau managed only a .618 OPS in 288 PA in 2011, but things did improve a bit in 2012. Morneau hit .267/.333/.440 with 19 homers in a mostly full season, showing that some of the tools that briefly made him a star were still there. But does Morneau’s previous success and slight rejuvenation give the Twins cause to celebrate?

Morneau did get a bit better past the All-Star break last season, so he appears to be steadily (albeit slowly) gaining momentum toward once again becoming a quality hitter. The big difference after the break last season for Morneau was simply a few singles; his power numbers stayed steady and his walk rate didn’t spike. Morneau may have logged a .793 OPS in the second half to better the .752 OPS he put up in the first half, but there isn’t much evidence to suggest there was a real reason for it.

I know Morneau has discussed extensions publicly when asked about it by the media, but a deal just doesn’t seem likely to get done. The Canadian ex-slugger endeared himself to Twins fans just as Joe Mauer did, but things just haven’t worked out favorably. Now 31 years old, it looks like Morneau will be moving elsewhere once the 2013 season is completed, and no one can really be blamed for that.

The only thing that could turn this ship around now would be a vintage Morneau campaign right when he needs it most, and I think that’s something we’d all like to see. The guy has been through enough, and a monstrous season may be the only way he has a shot at staying with the team that drafted him. Otherwise the Twins and Morneau will likely have to part ways after the season, and if that happens, I think we’ll all still be rooting for him to have a better future.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Coming off a dismal campaign in 2011, the Minnesota Twins expected to bounce back into contention in 2012. While the club saw a full and healthy season from Joe Mauer, along with Justin Morneau’s relative return to form, Minnesota dropped better than 95 games and took up residence in the basement of the American League Central for the second-straight season.

Coming into 2012, the Twins felt they could improve simply by the additions of a healthy Mauer and Morneau. It was a theory that made sense given that both are former AL MVPs still very much in the primes of their careers. After racking 99 losses in 2011, the Twins replaced general manager Bill Smith with interim GM Terry Ryan, who had been Smith’s predecessor in the job. Under Ryan’s guidance, Minnesota lost out on retaining free agent outfielders Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, but replaced those bats with Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit for a fraction of the cost.

Willingham doing his best impression of the MLB logo. Image: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

How well did those moves work out for the Twins? Kubel and Cuddyer earned a combined $18 million in 2012, from the Diamondbacks and Rockies, respectively. For a combined $10 million ($7 million of which went to Willingham), the Twins’ duo mashed 53 home runs and 185 RBI between them. Cuddyer and Kubel combined for 46 bombs and 148 RBI.

Unfortunately, the moves made with the pitching staff didn’t work out near so well.

If Minnesota had built a winner on pitching and defense, they got away from that formula in a hurry over the past couple of seasons. Jason Marquis was a horrendous in his first foray into the American League after signing as a free agent prior to the season. Marquis lasted only seven starts before getting his walking papers, thanks to a 8.47 ERA and a mere 3.2 strikeouts per nine innings. It wasn’t only Marquis who struggled, however.

A rotation that was supposed to feature consistent veteran arms instead needed an influx of minor leaguers to complete the season.

Carl Pavano made just 11 starts due to injury, but his ailments may have been a blessing in disguise for the Twins. Pavano pitched to contact and saw plenty of it en route to a 6.00 ERA. Stalwarts Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn were no help, either. Baker missed the season when he needed Tommy John surgery, Liriano lost 10 of 13 decisions (despite tossing a no-hitter) before being traded away and Blackburn wound up off the 40-man roster and in the minor leagues after a 7.39 ERA in 19 starts.

In their place, the Twins turned to a handful of young arms and most of them looked over-matched by big league hitters. The only one that looked at ease on a major league mound was southpaw Scott Diamond (12-9, 3.54), who lead the staff in wins, starts, and innings pitched. Diamond threw only 173 innings, but was one of exactly three Twins to toss 100 innings or more. Three. If you’re looking for what went wrong, that’s a pretty good indicator.

Another is the lack of strikeouts. Liriano was the only Twin to fan at least 100 batters on the season, punching out 109 in 100 innings (9.8 per 9). Next-best among starters was minor-league journeyman Sam Deduno, who worked 79 innings and struckout 6.5 batters per nine. Of course, he also walked six batters per nine, so the strikeouts were more than neutralized. The organizational mantra of pitching to contact was taken to an extreme in 2012 and the results were abysmal.

Despite losing 195 games over the past two seasons, the Twins have not only resisted a fire sale, they’ve barely made any moves to turn over the roster at all. It will be interesting to see how much, if any, that plan changes with Ryan assuming the GM duties on a full-time basis once again. If he’s open to the idea, Ryan will find interest in a handful of his regular players. Centerfielder Denard Span has been the subject of trade rumors for most of the past two years and those rumors will continue to swirl now that speedster Ben Revere has recorded a 40-steal season in the big leagues. While either can play in center, Span is the more dangerous hitter and therefore would be more attractive on the market. The regular third baseman for most of the year, versatile Trevor Plouffe showed good power numbers (24 homers, .455 slugging) and could fetch an arm or two as well.

While Span and Plouffe are nice pieces, the real return would come if the Twins would part with some pieces from the heart of their order. Mauer’s contract is immovable even if they wanted to trade him, which they don’t, but Morneau drew some interest at the trade deadline and beyond during the season. Minnesota might have to pick up a portion of his contract (owed $14 million in 2013) in order to move him, but the more money they’re willing to eat, the better the return they can expect in terms of prospects. The afore-mentioned Willingham, however, could be the biggest bat available on the trade market if the Twins decode to move him. Owed a very reasonable $7 million per year over the next two years, Willingham has legitimate 30-home run power and a penchant for driving in runs. He’s not a terrific defender, but passable enough that National League teams need not be scared away.

The organization has acknowledged that they must add pitchers who are capable of getting strikeouts and power arms do not come cheaply. There must be a shift in organizational philosophy in terms of drafting and developing pitchers and the fastest way to catch up to the cream of the division is via trade.

The Twins have a beautiful new ballpark and the best catcher in baseball, but they have more holes than they are capable of filling in one Winter. The team doesn’t figure to be competitive for at least a few years. It makes little sense to hold on to guys like Span, Willingham and Morneau if they can get any kind of decent return in a trade.

For more Twins coverage, visit Puckett’s Pond

Detroit Tigers 7, New York Yankees 2

Justin Verlander took care of one of baseball’s best lineups with ease, going eight innings without allowing and earned run and striking out 14 in the process. New York Yankees starter Ivan Nova fared much worse, as he gave up seven earned runs including home runs to Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta also had multi-hit games with one RBI apiece. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano had two hits each and drive in the Yankee runs. The Tigers are just 1 1/2 games out of first in the AL central following the win.

There's little doubt this pitch wasn't hit. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Baltimore Orioles 3, Seattle Mariners 1

Chris Tillman pitched seven innings, gave up just one run, and struck out five to help his Orioles over the Mariners. Nick Markakis homered and drove in two to power the Baltimore offense. Jason Vargas was able to manage a complete game in the loss. Tillman now has a 2.38 ERA in 34 IP since being recalled.

Minnesota Twins 14, Cleveland Indians 3

The Twins exploded for 10 runs in the second inning to deal the Indians their 10th straight loss. Production came from everywhere in the Minnesota lineup; Justin Morneau homered twice, Ben Revere had four hits, Josh Willingham went deep, Ryan Doumit drove in three runs, and Joe Mauer was 3-5 with three RBI. Curiously enough, Indians starter Zach McAllister only gave up two earned runs of the nine that were scored off him.

Boston Red Sox 9, Texas Rangers 2

Yu Darvish struck out nine in 6 2/3 innings, but he allowed 15 baserunners and lost handily to the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, and Dustin Pedroia all had three hits, while the team as a whole clubbed eight doubles. Adrian Beltre homered for the Rangers, though it clearly wasn’t enough.

Chicago White Sox 4, Kansas City Royals 2

Chris Sale‘s incredible season just keeps going, as he went eight innings, allowed two runs, and struck out seven. Paul Konerko and Gordon Beckham each homered to help keep the W-Sox in first place for now.

Los Angeles Angels 4, Oakland Athletics 0

This is a big series for both teams, as they’re fighting it out both in the AL west and wild card races. The Angels took this one in large part due to a complete game shutout from Jered Weaver. Weaver only allowed four hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out nine for his 15th win. Erick Aybar had three hits and scored two runs, while Torii Hunter drove in two and Mike Trout plated one.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta Braves 6, Philadelphia Phillies 1

The Ben Sheets comeback is still on track, as the righty went 7 1/3 innings and allowed just one run despite not striking anyone out. Jason Heyward homered and scored two runs for the Braves as the team remains just three games back of the rival Nationals.

Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Arizona Diamondbacks 0

Erik Bedard and the Pirates bullpen combined for a two-hit shutout in a match-up of two teams needing wins to help them gain a playoff spot. Andrew McCutchen had two hits and scored a couple of runs in the victory.

Milwaukee Brewers 6, Cincinnati Reds 3

The Brewers put up four runs in the sixth inning to deal the Reds a rare loss. Catcher Martin Maldonado had the biggest day, going 3-4 with a home run, two runs scored, and three RBI. Corey Hart also hit his 21st home run for Milwaukee. Zack Cozart homered in the loss for Cincinnati.

St. Louis Cardinals 8, San Francisco Giants 2

The Giants jumped out to a quick lead on an Angel Pagan solo homer, but the Cardinals were able to get to Matt Cain and win their fourth straight game. Carlos Beltran hit his 26th home run of the season, while Jon Jay had four hits and drove in a pair. Jake Westbrook won his 11th game by allowing two runs over six innings and walking no one.

Washington Nationals 5, Houston Astros 4 (F/11)

The Nationals won on a strange 11th inning post-bunt miscue, thus preventing the Astros from somehow winning two in a row. Ryan Zimmerman had two hits and two RBI, while Edwin Jackson struck out eight in  5 1/3 IP. Marwin Gonzalez hit a solo home run for Houston.

San Diego Padres 2, Chicago Cubs 0

The Padres blanked the Cubs thanks to 5 1/3 shutout innings from Eric Stults and 3 2/3 no-hit innings from the bullpen. Yonder Alonso and Everth Cabrera were responsible for knocking in the only two runs scored in the game.

Colorado Rockies 2, Los Angeles Dodgers 0

The Rockies have gotten very little out of their pitching staff this season, but Drew Pomeranz and the pen combined to shut out the Dodgers and strike out 10 batters. Eric Young Jr. had three hits and scored both Colorado runs to push L.A. a half-game back of the Giants out west.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Could Justin Morneau be heading to the Dodgers? According to CBS Sports, they have interest. (Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Los Angeles.  They did, however, get Hanely Ramirez.  Ramirez is a nice addition as long as his bat heats up this year.  But it doesn’t seem like the Dodgers are done.  According to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports, the Dodgers are interested in the Twins’ Justin Morneau.

The Dodgers have been clearly on the prowl for another pitcher and have been heavily linked to both Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza.  It seems, though, Los Angeles is really pushing for everything they need to make a run to the postseason this year – their first year under new ownership.

Morneau has battled injuries the last couple seasons, including a concussion suffered in 2010 that kept him out of most of last season.  In 69 games last year, as Morneau tried to return, he hit just .227/.285/.333.  So far this season, he is getting back on track ever so slightly.  He is hitting .253/.314/.437.  His OPS is hovering just above league average.

Morneau is still just 31 years old, and as a first baseman has many years ahead of him.  These next few seasons should be his prime production years.  If the Dodgers are willing to take a chance on him, they could see a big return.

Morneau is a four-time All-Star and won the American League MVP in 2006.  He is a career .279/.350/.494 hitter.  Should he get back to 100%, he has a chance to start producing like he has in years past.

It’s not clear what the Dodgers may offer in a deal to bring Morneau to Los Angeles, but they will be getting him for at least a year and half.  He is not a free agent until after next season  Morneau is due to make the remainder of his $14 million this year, and he will make $14 million next season as well.

For more on the Dodgers, be sure to check out Lasorda’s Lair.  

For more on the Twins, be sure to check out Puckett’s Pond. 

The Twins have said no position player is off-limits in trade talks. That includes Justin Morneau. (Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE)

the postseason this year, and the make-up of the team will likely be much different in 2013.  The Twins may start with a trade that includes Justin Morneau.

According to the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley, Terry Ryan, the Twins’ GM, said no position player was off-limits in trade talks.  That includes Morneau.  Ryan has been frustrated by the Twin meager offense and their pitching woes.  He knows the team needs help in the rotation, but he will have to trade position players to get it.  Morneau doesn’t want to leave.

“I definitely don’t want to leave here,” Morneau said. “I can’t really see myself in any other uniform, you know? If there is something they feel can make this team better, like I said, that’s out of my control. My preference would be to stay here and play here as long as I can; sometimes that stuff’s out of our control.”

The 31-year old first baseman is hitting .249/.312/.432.  He is a shell of the player he was from 2006 (when he won the MVP) through 2010 (when he hit .345).  However, he seems healthy.  He’s already played 73 games – four more than all of last season.  He is eight games short of reaching the 81 he played in 2010.

Health will be a big concern for teams interested in a trade, but Morneau will be more than a half-season rental for any team acquiring him.  He is not a free agent until after next year.  He is due to make $14 million in 2013 and is making $14 million this year.

Morneau has battled back from a concussion that left him sidelined for a large chunk of time.  He simply hasn’t been able to get back on track at the plate.  Last season, as Morneau attempted his first return, he hit .227/.285/.333.  He’s shown improvement this season, but it hasn’t been enough for Terry Ryan and the last-place Twins.

For more on the Twins, be sure to check out Puckett’s Pond. 

April 22, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau (33) at bat in the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

In 83 plate appearances this year, Morneau has already hit four home runs to match last year’s total. He’s on pace for a 2 WAR year (ZiPS), which is a considerable bounce back season after an injury-plagued 2011 season that caused many to think that the RBI-monger was done.

A league-average year is a far cry from the gaudy numbers that Justin Morneau used to post, as he was worth 5 WAR just two seasons ago. He has a 111 wRC+ so far this season and plays good defense, and ZiPS projects four more home runs than they did before the season. Morneau can easily beat those numbers when healthy, but there is the chance that his wrist bothers him throughout the year and hinders his production.

Morneau was in the batting cages yesterday to see how his wrist felt, but no improvements were made, and he will hit the DL on Monday.

“It wasn’t good,” Morneau told the Pioneer Press. “It felt the same way it did the other day. A little more time and hopefully that will calm down and get to where I can swing normally and be productive – not just be out there swinging, but swinging to make a difference in the game.”

In other news, Minnesota Twins 2011 minor league MVP Brian Dozier will be called up, and the 24-year-old shortstop will make his debut in the team’s series against the Los Angeles Angels. He had a 143 wRC+ in 351 plate appearances in AA. According to the Minor League Equivalency calculator (using his AA numbers), Dozier will have a .256/.307/.384 if given 320 at-bats. Which means that the talented prospect is a 1.5 WAR player in the MLB based on those stats (Simple WAR Calculator).

Seedlings to Stars ranked Dozier as the 77th best prospect in baseball. Calling up Dozier was the right move for the present and future, and he will be the new starting shortstop for the Twins.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook.

Follow Joe Soriano on Twitter here. Catch up on everything about the Minnesota Twins on Puckett’s Pond.

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The rash of injuries, including a combined 265 missed games by the club’s lead-off, three, and four hitters, lead to an anemic offense and a last-place finish. Minnesota’s 63-99 record, which left them an alarming 32 games behind the division-winning Detroit Tigers, was not only the worst record in the 10-year career of manager Ron Gardenhire, but it marked the only time since Gardenhire took the helm that his club has failed to play at least .500 ball.

In short, while they weren’t expected to run away with the division in 2011, no one should have seen this coming.

The Twins are hopeful that Morneau can return to form in 2012 - Image: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Of course, it wasn’t only injuries that were to blame for the woeful season endured by Twins fans. The Twins’ starting rotation, which had been third-best among American League clubs in 2010, fell to second-worst in 2011. The main culprits of such a steep decline were right hander Kevin Slowey, who didn’t make a start until August, but then posted an amazingly bad 0-8 record and 7.25 ERA through his final eight appearances, all starts. In fairness to Slowey, the Twins’ season was over long before he pitched his way out of town, with only Scott Baker posting an ERA below 4.30 for Minnesota. Left handers Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano made a combined 52 starts last year and pitched to a 5.23, and 5.09 ERA, respectively.

The bullpen gets their share of the blame for 2011 as well, however, as no AL club took more losses in relief than did Minnesota. The Twins didn’t have a ton of save opportunities, but also did a poor job of converting those into wins. Only two AL clubs converted less than the 63% of chances that the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins had taken heavy losses in their relief corps through free agency following the 2010 season and they certainly appeared to miss dearly former stalwarts Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Jon Rauch. Former starter-turned-set-up-man Glen Perkins was perhaps the lone bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season for Minnesota relievers, one that saw them post a higher ERA, 4.51, than any other relief unit.