The Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander is just about the best pitcher in baseball and gives his team a head start in locking down the American League Central Division.Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Although the Detroit Tigers were picked apart in the World Series by the San Francisco Giants in 2012 and their closer situation is iffy, they should be strong enough to take command of the American League Central Division early and hold it all summer long.

Fireballing Justin Verlander on the mound and triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera at bat give the Tigers two major components in putting a winner on the field at Comerica Park.  They’ve also got slugger Prince Fielder manning first base and Victor Martinez coming back from a year sidelined with a knee injury and they added outfielder Torii Hunter. The starting rotation is solid and Phil Coke is Mr. Reliability in the bullpen however he is used. Bruce Rondon was supposed to be the closer, but the Tigers sent him to the minors Thursday, leaving a rather large hole in the bullpen.

Having a dependable closer is generally a must cornerstone for choosing a team to finish first, but the Tigers have all the other ingredients dominate the division. If they have to go to closer-by-committee, though that weakens their position, it might mean the difference between advancing in the playoffs and not.

The fact that Rick Porcello claimed the fifth starter spot over Doug Smyly is a sign of strength on the mound. Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Anibel Sanchez make for an otherwise sturdy rotation and Verlander may be the finest pitcher in the game. His numbers weren’t quite as gaudy last year as they were in 2011, but he was just about as effective–his teammates didn’t perform as well for him as they had the year before.

Generally speaking the Tigers are so much more talented across the board than the other four teams in the AL Central that it would be hard to see them losing the division crown. If anyone has an outside shot at the Tigers–and it really is a longshot–it’s the Cleveland Indians. The Indians worked harder than anyone else in baseball to upgrade without adding a superstar. They brought in a new manager in Terry Francona and played the free-agent market aggressively. The Indians were big spenders without being complete break-the-bank spenders.

Nick Swisher was a big-ticket item and they may have overspent for his services. But the Indians also brought in Michael Bourn, a National League All-Star, Drew Stubbs, an ace fielder, and Mark Reynolds, among others. The Indians are sick of losing and they don’t even have too many fans lef alive who remember their last World Series triumph in 1948.

Doormats for so long, there is something to be said for the Kansas City Royals, too. They have cast their lot with homegrown talent and much of its is coming of age. At the least the days of 100-l0ss seasons are in the rearview mirror. It might be a lot to ask for a winning record, but the Royals could eke out a .500-plus mark by a game or two.

Forget the hopes of the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. Not very long ago they were both division challengers or winners, but in 2013 they will be in a dogfight for the basement.

I feel a bit bad for White Sox second-year manager and veteran slugger Paul Konerko. I just don’t see much help for Paulie on the roster. Designated hitter Adam Dunn could hit 40 home runs with 100 RBIs and still bat under .200. That would be something to see. Also possible rescuers of Konerko’s lonely success might be some members of the starting rotation. At one time or another Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and John Danks have all done well. But they almost all no longer seem to have good years at the same time or all stay healthy at the same time. Danks is on the 15-day disabled list now.

Joe Mauer may be king of the Twin Cities, but his royal court is substandard.

This is how I see the American League Central playing out this season: 1) Detroit Tigers; 2) Cleveland Indians; 3) Kansas City Royals; 4) Chicago White Sox; 5) Minnesota Twins.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

To get the starting pitching the Royals lacked, GM Dayton Moore had to part with a prospect of Myers caliber. Myers is considered a top five prospect in all of baseball after clubbing 37 home runs between Double and Triple A in 2012. The Royals also parted with pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery and third base prospect Patrick Leonard in the deal.

The high price Moore paid for pitchers Shields and Davis was necessitated by the prohibitive cost of free agent pitching. Shields gives Kansas City a legitimate number one starting pitcher for the next two years at a reasonable $21 million. Shield has at least 200 IP each year since 2007. Over the past two years he is 31-22 with a 3.14 ERA while averaging 8.5 K/9 IP. He finished third in the 2011 Cy Young voting.

Wade Davis is a quality arm who was the odd man out of the Devil Rays starting rotation in 2012. After two decent years starting, he appeared in 54 games out of the bullpen with a .189 BAA. In 2010 and 2011 he went 23-20 with a 4.26 ERA in 352 IP while averaging 5.9K/9 IP. Davis is under the Royals control until 2017, and is owed only $7.6 million over the next two years.

The Royals added Ervin Santana in a trade with Anaheim. Santana’s career topped out in 2008 when he pitched to a 1.12 WHIP and averaged 8.8 K/9 IP. In 2011-2012 Santana’s record was 20-25 with a 3.75 ERA in 451 IP. During the last two seasons his strikeout ratio dropped to 6.2 K/9 IP.

Pitching coach Dave Eiland was obviously happy that starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie was re-signed to a $25 million three year deal in November.

“The second half last year after we got Guthrie, after his first two starts we made some adjustments and he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.”

Guthrie went 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts for the Royals after being acquired from the Rockies mid season.  With the Orioles in 2010-2011, he had a 20-31 record, but a respectable 4.08 ERA.

Bruce Chen, former top overall pick Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza will compete for the fifth slot.

Right handed reliever Dan Wheeler was signed to a minor league contract. From 2004 through 2011 he was a quality set up man at stops in Houston, Tampa Bay and Boston. He struggled in Cleveland last year, but could be a valuable addition to the Royals pen.

The position players added during the offseason will battle for roster spots. Elliot Johnson was added in the Shields trade. He is a valuable utility player who can play 2B/SS/3B and should make the roster. Former MVP Miguel Tejada faces an uphill battle to make the team, he last played in 2011 and is battling for a reserve infield/PH role. Endy Chavez was signed to a minor league contract. Chavez has been a quality fourth outfielder much of his career but slumped to a .203 average/.516 OPS in 2012.

After years of patiently developing their team, GM Dayton Moore and the Royals will now try to go toe to toe with the rest of the AL Central. The homegrown quartet of Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler will lead the offense while the rotation tries to hold up its end of the bargain. Shields, Davis and Guthrie have all spent significant time in the AL East, so they should be able to handle the lineups in the AL Central.

For the first time in many years the Royals enter a season looking to compete. Though catching the Tigers may be a tall order, the fans at Kauffman Field may catch wild card fever this summer.

James Shields is good, but that doesn’t mean the Royals are ready to win right away. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals made their move by dealing top prospect Wil Myers and other minor league hopefuls to the Rays to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis. Shields certainly boosts the solidity of the starting rotation and gives the Royals an ace, and the team is clearly also hoping new acquisition Ervin Santana can return to his previous form and help them have their next successful squad. The methodology, in a way, makes sense because the AL Central has always been winnable. If you’re going to go for it and ditch your rebuilding process, it makes sense to do so when you feel your division or a wild card spot is up for grabs.

The problem is that the Royals aren’t good enough to try something so bold, at least not yet. Even with Shields in the fold and a Santana comeback, there are too many gaping holes and question marks littering the roster. Young future stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven’t actually enjoyed serious Major League success yet, and it’s unclear what their careers will hold. The Royals don’t have enough talented, MLB-ready players on board to give up on rebuilding just yet.

Another issue with going the direction the Royals finally did is that the Tigers are a legitimate threat in the American League. Detroit represented the AL in the World Series last fall, and all of the principal players are returning for another run. With Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder all in the their prime, the Tigers aren’t going away anytime soon and remain a dangerous team the Royals will not be able to unseat unless a series of improbable miracles begin to unfold. The wild card spots are going to be tough to get as well; both the AL West and East have multiple contenders with rosters far more stacked than what Kansas City has to offer.

I completely understand the Royals wanting to give their fans something to cheer about and change up the long-standing losing culture in Kansas City. Everyone has waited more than long enough, and everyone is ready for the Royals to recapture their glory from George Brett‘s heyday. Giving up on rebuilding at this precise moment, with Hosmer and Moustakas still unknown quantities and several stronger contenders present, just wasn’t a good idea. In the long run I would think Kansas City fans would rather wait a couple more seasons for a legitimate contender than sacrifice a future star and other key pieces for the right to win 79 games instead of 74.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Tejada hasn’t been an above-average big league hitter since 2009. Image: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

None of this information stopped the Kansas City Royals from inking the 38-year-old Tejada to a minor league contract just before 2012 came to a conclusion. It is unknown whether or not the deal includes an invitation to Spring Training with the big club. Speculation is, however, that the Royals view Tejada as this year’s Yuniesky Betancourt: a low-cost veteran capable of playing shortstop.

Tejada has been playing winter ball and has reportedly been playing well enough that the Miami Marlins had considered signing him early in December to fill their vacancy at third base. Instead, the Fish went with Placido Polanco and Tejada had to settle for the minors deal with the Royals.

No matter how well he’s been doing in the Dominican, it looks like a long-shot that Tejada has anything left as a big league caliber hitter. He caught on with the Orioles in 2012 on a minor league deal but never made it back to the Show. In 151 Triple-A plate appearances, Tejada failed to homer and posted a paltry .296 slugging percentage and .621 OPS.

Kudos for Tejada in not giving up on his career, but this is to the point now that Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez saw at the ends of their career. Former sluggers and MVPs that saw their success fueled by performance enhancing drugs (Ramirez tested positive twice, speculation on Sosa and Tejada) only to decline to rapidly and so completely as they entered their late-30s.

This story will get attention because it’s the Royals and because Tejada was at one point a big name. But there really is nothing much to see here.

The Royals mantra to their long-suffering fans (one winning season in the last 18 since 1994) has been “Be patient.” That gambit might have played if the Royals had ever shown any signs of improvement. But nah, they not only haven’t been able to win anything of note, they haven’t been able to win at all, or get close to .500. (more…)

Kansas City acquired a pair of right handers, James Shields and Wade Davis, from the Tampa Bay Rays. In return, the Rays get a host of minor league talent, and I do mean talent. Tampa gets outfielder Wil Myers, right hander Jake Odorizzi, lefty Mike Montogomery, and third baseman Patrick Leonard.

Shields has been one of the better starters in the league over the past two years, but comes to KC at a steep price. Image: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a classic veterans-for-prospects deal that’s made by teams in contention all the time. In this case, however, it’s a trade that is made in hopes of turning a pretender into a contender. The Royals are betting the farm that they can win in the next two seasons, because that’s all the longer they are guarenteed to have Shields in their uniform.

Shields is an outstanding starting pitcher and Davis is a guy capable of holding down a spot at the back-end of your rotation. Kansas City had already added Ervin Santana to their rotation and re-signed Jeremy Guthrie. Those four, along with holdover Bruce Chen, should give the Royals a much, much stronger starting corps than they’ve had in years. Couple them with a bullpen full of power arms and suddenly Kansas City has all the makings of a strong pitching staff.

Of course, Chen pitched to a 5.07 ERA last season, Davis has a career 4.22 ERA as a starter and 4.59 ERA away from Tropicana Field, Santana allowed an amazing 39 home runs last season and posted a 5.16 ERA, and Guthrie was so bad in the first half last year that the pitching-starved Rockies put him in the bullpen before unloading him. So to say that these additions are a sure-thing is a long ways from the truth. Every one of these four have warts. Every one raises red flags.

From a Rays perspective, you have to love this deal. Yes, losing Shields hurts, but the Rays have great depth of starting pitching (so much so that Davis couldn’t crack the rotation). They dealt away a guy who makes a pretty good salary ($9 million in 2013), which is always a concern in Tampa Bay, but they didn’t give up any of their younger starters. As good as Shields is, the Rays still have a starting rotation that would be the envy of many clubs, including the Royals.

Tampa gets Kansas City’s top two prospects, plus two additional prospects. Myers and Odorizzi are ready to help right now and could have been playing prominent roles for the Royals in 2013 and for years to come. Montgomery has been rated in the top-20 prospects in all of baseball, though he struggled mightily in 2012 and Leonard is a 20-year-old kid who slugged 14 home runs in 62 games in his first taste of pro ball last season. There is a lot of talent heading to Tampa Bay and it’s all under team control for the next six years at least.

The Royals made this trade because they think they have the pieces to win now, but I’m not even convinced this deal makes them a better club than they were last week. Do they have more recognizable names in their rotation? Sure, but many of those names comes with questions. General manager Dayton Moore has dipped into a very talented and deep minor league system and plucked out some awfully talented kids to use as trade fodder. He’s gambled that his young lineup is ready to compete and he’s done what he felt was necessary to support those young hitters and give his franchise a better chance to compete.

But it won’t be good enough just to compete; Moore has to win. If Kansas City goes from 90 losses to a playoff appearance, this deal still  could wind up being regrettable. The only way it isn’t is if Shields helps lead the Royals to a World Series title. If that happens, it won’t matter how good Myers or Odorizzi winds up being for the Rays or what happens in their careers.

Because flags fly forever. And that’s what the Royals are gambling on.

According to a report from Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, however, don’t expect much of anything to happen if it means adding to the KC payroll.

That reduces the break-even point for the 25-man roster – the figure generally used for comparison purposes in public discussions – to roughly $57 million. The draft and international limits under the new labor agreement comprise about $10 million.

It also means, as things currently stand, the Royals are already over budget since the projected payroll for their 25-man roster is roughly $65 million.

Glass claims to have lost millions while owning the Royals. Image: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Royals owner David Glass wants to keep the entire cost of player salaries on the 40-man roster, plus the international and draft monies under $70 million in total, so as Dutton notes, they have already gone roughly $8 million beyond that figure.

Glass, according to Dutton’s report, has routinely subsidized the team’s payroll in order to finance money for a player needed to help the team contend. Considering that Kansas City is the only AL club in the past six seasons to not have at least one winning record, things haven’t been going as planned in that area.

Assuming this information is true, Glass would have already agreed to subsidize money to pay for the Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie deals. It seems pretty darn unlikely that a guy who claims to have lost many millions while owning the Royals would agree to spend another $10-15 million out of his own pocket to add another pitcher.

The Royals have been near the bottom of the league in attendance for a while now, as it happens when the team is perennial losers, and their television contract is only valued at about $20 million per year, among the lowest in the league, so the Glass family doesn’t have a the kind of revenue streams enjoyed by many other clubs. Forbes magazine estimated that Glass profited roughly $100 million during the decade of 2001-2010, but major league baseball has always maintained the Forbes numbers were flawed.

Regardless of whether you believe Mr. Glass has made money on the team or lost it, this report certainly indicates that there will not be a willingness to drastically increase the payroll any time soon. And that probably means that all the talk about landing an ace is just that: talk.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Shields has terrific endurance, but he is an overrated pitcher who has more downside than upside at this stage. He’s still a solid pitcher, but he’s more of a No. 2 than a No. 1 starter, and I don’t think he’s being viewed like that by the Rays at this point in time. He would be a good addition to the Royals staff for sure, but not at the price of Myers and a couple of more prospects. That is far too much, especially considering Myers is the best pure hitting prospect in baseball and of high value to the Royals.

The Royals could still acquire Shields if the Rays lower their asking price, and Passan did not rule out a future move by stating “for now”, so things could open up for both sides in the future. Shields was a high target for Kansas City.

Passan also tweeted that the Royals “are not in the Anibal Sanchez market”, which he notes is at around five years and over $70 million. That’s far too expensive for any teams taste, especially the Royals. Signing Sanchez at this stage isn’t a risk worth taking, so credit KC for saying “no” to this one.

This comes as a conflicting source to what Jon Paul Morosi said yesterday about Sanchez being the the Royals top target, so there is the possibility that the Royals get back in the race for both pitchers. But at this point, it looks like no deals will be made due to two high asking prices despite the talent of both pitchers and the upgrade they would give to this team.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Instead of trading for a guy like James Shields or R.A. Dickey, both of whom has been tied to the Royals this week, it may behoove GM Dayton Moore to focus on the free agent market instead. While a guy like Shields and Dickey will cost at least one hitter and then you have to pay them upward of $10 million per year, signing a guy off the open market will cost only money. Potentially more money than a starter brought in via trade, but they’d still have control of all of their young hitters as well.

According to Jon Morosi, the Royals have set their sights on one of the biggest fish on the market in right hander Anibal Sanchez.

Sanchez is said to be seeking a contract of at least six years and many reports have an average annual value of at least $15 million year. Ordinarily that would be far too rich for the blood of the Royals, but Moore and the rest of the KC brass feel like this is the time for them to strike and try to build a pitching staff to match the firepower of their young and talented lineup. The Royals have also shown interest in Ryan Dempster.

It’s doubtful that any team will want to offer Sanchez six years, but word has been floating that at least one team has offered five to the former Detroit Tiger. It is unclear whether the Royals are a team that would offer such a deal, but it wouldn’t be unheard of. This is the same franchise, after all, that gave a five year contract to Gil Meche several years ago.

Should the Royals add Sanchez, the move would simultaneously strengthen their team while weakening the rotation of the Tigers, thereby helping to close the gap between the two clubs. Detroit would still have superior pitching, but a rotation that begins with Sanchez, Jeremy Guthrie, and the recently acquired Ervin Santana is considerably more stout than the one the Royals ran out there in 2012.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, he pitched 175.1 innings with a 4.67 ERA in an average year. The young starter has definitely pitched better than this, as he sported a sub-4.00 ERA and was worth 3.8 WAR in the 2011 season. Holland has done a good job of striking out hitters and is improving his control with each year. Even though he had a lower BABIP than his career average, Holland did receive a degree of bad luck with a 15.2 HR/FB% that led to a swing in home runs allowed per nine innings (1.64).

That number will almost certainly be lower in 2013 and beyond, but Holland isn’t exactly the best pitcher around at limiting the long ball. However, his peripherals are solid and he has plenty of upside going forward at 26. The Rangers will be able to get a great haul if they do decide to deal Holland, because he is a solid 3 WAR pitcher capable of posting above-average ERA totals year-in and year-out.

Currently on a team-friendly deal after signing an extension last offseason, the Rangers will most likely hold on to Holland. The only way that I can envision Holland getting trade to the Twins, Brewers, Royals, or some other team is if the Rangers are able to sign Zack Greinke. Even then, Jon Daniels isn’t going to deal Holland unless if he gets a deal he just can’t pass up.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.