Will Michael Bourn be wearing a Mets jersey later this month? Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

On the surface, Bourn absolutely makes sense for the Mets as he does for a lot of teams. Bourn plays a premium defensive position, and he plays it just about as well as anyone. A quick trip to FanGraphs reveals that Bourn has been rated positively in center in every season of his career but one (2011), and in two out of the last three seasons he’s been considered phenomenal. Sure, UZR data can be misleading, but when a sample size this large exists and points to continued excellence, there’s reason to be a believer.

Bourn would also give the Mets a boost at the top of the lineup thanks to his consistently above-average plate patience. There are plenty of debates to be had on what makes a lead-off hitter effective, but the simplest evaluation is to judge whether or not a player can get on base in front of everyone else in the lineup. Bourn isn’t ever going to lead the league in OBP or anything, but he’s posted on-base marks between .341 and .354 in each of the last four seasons. That’s better than a lot of other teams are getting from the lead-off spot, and it isn’t a batting average fluke despite Bourn’s speed. His walk rates have exceeded 9% in all but two seasons, and he put up a career best 10% rate last year.

Maybe Bourn has been a bit undervalued by his potential employers. For some reason it seems that players who actually possess old-timey skills like defensive prowess, lead-off ability, and speed get overlooked when it comes to big contracts. Bourn isn’t a run producer of any sort, but he has still tallied over 4 fWAR in each of the last four seasons, and his 6.4 WAR mark last season was a career best at age 29. Bourn has proven himself thoroughly after a rocky beginning to his career, but it seems he’s still low on suitors during a period that could easily result in his first enormous payday.

There’s a distinct chance teams are worried about a swift decline, and they wouldn’t be remiss in doing so. Players like Bourn who have so much value tied up in their speed can experience quite the fall-off as their physical attributes fail them increasingly with age; if Bourn’s legs become less potent soon, his defensive range and basepath mastery would begin to suffer immensely. Unlike many other players his age, Bourn can’t fall back on his value at the plate; what he does offensively is largely a bonus beyond drawing a few walks.

The Mets have reason to be cautious when approaching a deal with Bourn, but he could still be a good fit. Bourn is a very good player still in his peak years, and given that 2012 was his best season yet, he isn’t likely to decline any time soon. With the market cool on Bourn for the time being, perhaps the Mets can grab him for a shorter contract length than they would have previously feared necessary. Even though the Mets know they won’t compete this season, they need good players to build around, and Bourn could be extremely pivotal in making the Mets a better team when their recent prospect haul from Toronto is ready to make the step up. There are reasons to worry about Michael Bourn, but there are also reasons to think the Mets are wise to be the leading candidate for his considerable services.

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If Michael Bourn signs with the Mets, the fans at Citi Field hope to see Bourn repeating the run scoring fist slap 100 times in 2013.. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Whether Bourn costs the Mets a top round pick could be tied to a possible grievance by the MLB Players Association involving draft rules in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. If the Mets, who own the eleventh pick, but had the tenth worst record in baseball, retain their pick, it would make signing Bourn more attractive. With the free agent market drying up, Mets GM Sandy Alderson may be able to acquire the speedy outfielder at a reasonable price.

Bourn would immediately make the Mets a better team in a number of areas. His presence in the leadoff role would let steady shortstop Ruben Tejada slide into the eight hole in the lineup. Tejada was miscast as a leadoff hitter, with a lifetime on base percentage of .336 and little speed. Three hitter David Wright and cleanup hitter Ike Davis would see an increase in opportunities to hit with a runner in scoring position. Second hitter Daniel Murphy’s patient approach and ability to hit deep in counts would give Bourn ample chance to steal bases. While the Mets offense has struggled in recent years, Bourn has scored 94 or more runs three of the last four years. Defensively, the two time Gold Glove winner would ably patrol center field, and help cover right fielder Lucas Duda’s defensive shortcomings.

Bourn is not a perfect player, he lacks power and his low on base percentage keeps him from being considered an elite leadoff man. However, signing him now makes sense for the organization. With $43 million coming off the books after 2013 because of the expiring contracts of Johan Santana and the now departed Jason Bay, the Mets should have the financial wherewithal to lock up a player of Bourn’s quality in a down market.

Alderson’s task will not be an easy one. He may have to engage in a high stakes game of free agent chicken with master agent Scott Boras. Boras will undoubtedly try to engage other teams in a bidding war to drive up Bourn’s asking price.

Other interested teams reportedly include the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik has long been a proponent of fielding teams with strong defensive players. The Mariners, though, have been stung by a series of poor signings players like Chone Figgins. It is unlikely the Orioles would overpay, already having quality center fielder Adam Jones and right fielder Nick Markakis on their roster.

It is possible, if Alderson plays his cards correctly, that Bourn ends up falling in his lap. Should that happen, Alderson should make the deal, making the Mets more competitive in 2013 and the future in the rough National League East.

The New York Mets were slotted to draft tenth in the upcoming 2013 MLB draft, based on their tenth worst record.  With the first 10 picks protected, the Mets could sign a free agent a Bourn’s caliber and not surrender their first pick in the 2013 draft.  However, the Pittsburgh Pirates were unable to come to terms with the number eight pick in 2012, Mark Appel. Because of this, the Pirates will now draft ninth, knocking the Mets out of the top 10, to the 11th hole.

More exciting and dynamic than Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Ruben Tejada Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

If there is a grievance, it would be a case of the letter of the law vs. spirit of the rule debate.  The spirit of the rule is to protect the 10 worst teams’ first round pick.  The letter of the law rewards the Pirates for an inability to sign Appel, giving them the nninth slot in the next year’s draft.

If an arbiter comes down in favor of the union, the Mets 11th pick would remain protected. That the players union is reportedly considering filing a grievance should come as no surprise.  Besides driving down the market for free agents like Bourn, it gives teams additional leverage when negotiating with draft picks.  Since Scott Boras is Bourn’s agent, his fingerprints are likely somewhere in the whole affair.

The ruling may set precedent, so Bourn’s individual case is not the only issue.   To amend the agreement, involving the slotting of picks and draft compensation, would give one side an upper hand that was not collectively bargained.

If the Mets can retain their first round pick, Alderson may pursue Bourn.  The market has thinned and many of the larger market teams have solidified their outfield.  Scott Boras always seems to create a market for his clients and is a master at having general managers outbid themselves (see Sabean, Brian and Rizzo, Mike) for players like Barry Zito and Jayson Werth.

Bourn would bring a legitimate leadoff threat the Mets have lacked since the departure of Jose Reyes.  Current shortstop Ruben Tejada has a lower OBP than Bourn and profiles more like Rey Ordonez.  Andres Torres was a disaster, and the projected Mets starting outfield of Duda, Nieuwenhuis and Baxter would be a mid level trio in the International League.

Bourn is not a perfect player, for a leadoff hitter his OBP of .348 in 2012 (.339 lifetime) is low and he has relatively little power.  But his 42 steals and Gold Glove caliber defense would play well in the leadoff role at Citi Field. At the right price, for a term of four years or shorter,  signing Bourn would at least generate some excitement and hope among the desperate fan base.

Fred and Jeff Wilpon should have enough money from SNY and Sterling Equities to make an initial offering to Bourn.  If Boras can’t create a market and Queens ends up as the best landing spot, Citi Field might not be a mausoleum by mid May.

Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

This is a wise move for the Mets, a team who would need far more than a speedy leadoff hitter to make themselves a contributor in a division with at least two very good teams (Washington and Atlanta). Bourn is in his prime right now, and thus wouldn’t be a logical choice for an organization that needs to be mindful of the seasons to come and worry about building mainly from within.

That said, Bourn would be a very useful addition to a contending team in need of a center fielder — FanGraphs values his last four seasons at a combined 20.7 WAR, an average of a little over 5 wins above replacement per year. He may not be cheap, and he may cost the signing team its top draft pick in the coming amateur draft, but Bourn figures to be a very valuable player for the next several seasons nonetheless.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

In an off-season that can only be classified as disappointing for the Rangers, Berkman represents a potentially solid addition, provided his knees can withstand the rigors of another season. Being used primarily at DH will certainly help ease the burden on the 35-year-old switch hitter.

Even with Berkman in the fold, the Rangers have work to do to finish building their roster. To this point, subtractions from their Wild Card team still far out-weigh additions. The Rangers have lost quite a few impact players, including both hitters and in the rotation. Berkman should effectively replace Michael Young at DH, but the Rangers hope his numbers wind up closer to those of the departed Josh Hamilton. Earlier in the Winter, Texas inked catcher A.J. Pierzynski to replace Mike Napoli, who is still expected to sign with the Red Sox.

Given that the Rangers missed out on seemingly every free agent and trade target they had when the Winter Meetings took place in Nashville in early December, one would hope they’ve not completed their agenda for the remainder of the off-season. Jon Heyman says not to worry, the Rangers could still be in play for many of the biggest names remaining on the market.

#rangers still looking for more after adding berkman. Bourn, upton, lohse could be in play.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 7, 2013

The Rangers still have plenty of money available and they remain interested in acquiring Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. That said, if they weren’t willing to part with the kind of prospects Arizona was looking for in December, it’s unlikely that Rangers GM Jon Daniels suddenly has a change of heart. Multiple teams remain in conversations with the D-backs about Upton, so Texas is no sure thing to land the outfielder.

In Kyle Lohse, Texas would find the front-half-of-the-rotation starter they lost when Ryan Dempsterleft and that they missed out on when Zack Greinke signed with the Dodgers. Lohse isn’t as young as Greinke, but he’s been better over the past two seasons. Lohse has struggled to find suitors on the open market, in part because of the draft pick compensation attached to his free agency.

Bourn doesn’t bring power to the plate, but his speed and defense would change the Rangers for the better. Image: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve heard for a few weeks now that Michael Bourn could wind up in Texas if only because there is a fit in terms of money and roster space. The only other team that can offer the money and has a need for a center field bat is the Seattle Mariners (who are also in on Upton, but he has Seattle on his no-trade list). Bourn didn’t look like an ideal fit to replace Hamilton, as power is not a part of Bourn’s game, but the addition of Berkman changes the team dynamic enough to make adding a speedy lead-off man more palatable for the Rangers.

Should Texas add Bourn, they could drop Ian Kinsler lower in the lineup, where he would see more run-producing chances with his plus power bat. With Berkman, Adrian Beltre, Kinsler, Pierzynski, and Nelson Cruz making up the three-through-seven spots (though not necessarily in that order), Texas would maintain an elite lineup, though one with a decidedly different feel than in years past.

As is the case with Lohse, in order to sign Bourn, the Rangers would have to forfeit a draft pick and the slot money assigned to that pick. Should they sign both Lohse and Bourn, Texas would lose their top two picks in June’s draft. The Rangers have one of the deepest and most talented minor league systems in all of baseball, so if there is ever a club that can afford to surrender a pick or two, the Rangers have the depth to buffer the impact of such a loss. That doesn’t mean that it’s something they’d like to do, but losing the picks would have less of a negative effect on the Rangers than it would a club without the kind of system flush with talent that the Rangers have.

If they make no further additions, the Rangers have added enough pieces back to the roster to remain competitive in the AL West, but they’ll need healthy and effective seasons from some players who come with considerable question marks in their recent history. Oakland has more young pitching than anyone and their lineup should only be better than they were a year ago. Meanwhile, the Angels have three of the top eight or 10 hitters in the game all within the same lineup. If Texas wants to return to the playoff in 2013, they likely need to make another addition or two to their roster.

Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

A fit between the two parties would seem an unlikely one at this point, as it would force the Braves to use Bourn in left field, a prospect the speedy outfielder would seem unlikely to have much interest in. Looking at his career UZR performance, such reluctance would be more than understandable, as Bourn’s defensive prowess is such that it should be Upton who shifts were both players on board, especially considering corner outfielders are supposed to have some kind of power.

No matter how politically correct the Braves are trying to be in not burning their bridges here, it appears that their choice has already been made: they’ve gone with Upton over Bourn. Both players being well-balanced types with multiple tools at their disposal and in the midst of their primes, either option has its merits, but Upton, nearly two years younger and possessing considerably more power, seems to have struck Atlanta’s fancy more.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

Free agent outfielder Michael Bourn was thought to be the best natural center fielder in a market deep with center field talent. Projections had him finding a deal likely in the range of five years and $100 million. With just three shopping days left before Christmas, however, Bourn and his agent, Boras, have been left on the sidelines watching as team after team filled their center field needs with trades and signings to acquire less expensive options.

August 13, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Bourn (24) makes a diving catch in third inning against the San Diego Padres at Turner field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not unusual for a Boras client to wait to sign a big contract, but Bourn is an unusual player. Typically, power gets the big dollars and players relying on speed, like Bourn, are viewed more cautiously in longer-term deals. While Bourn is an elite defender in center field and routinely steals 40-50 bases per season, he doesn’t bring the presence that a middle-of-the-order bat would bring.

And though he’s drawn interest from several teams this season, the only one that seems legitimately interested is the Seattle Mariners, and even their interest is tempered by the sting of their last speedy free agent signing, Chone Figgins; a deal that went horribly bad for the M’s.

Boras and Bourn had been counting on the Phillies or the Nationals, or maybe the Braves to step up and start a bidding war to see which of them would get to sign the player. Instead, Bourn’s most recent employer, Atlanta, opted for B.J. Upton, a younger and cheaper center fielder who offers more power but lacks lead-off skills. Philly landed Ben Revere to fill their center field void and Washington traded for another Twin, Denard Span.

Meanwhile, Shane Victorino got $13 million per year from Boston, Angel Pagan landed a four-year contract with the Giants, and Bourn continued to wait.

It’s the same situation that faced Boras and his client, Prince Fielder, last Winter. By the time January rolled around, Fielder was still on the market, but there didn’t appear to be a big contract coming his way. All the supposedly interested parties had moved on and obtained other players to fill their first base openings. The price tag for Fielder was too high. He’d be forced to take a one-year deal and try his luck on the market again the following year.

All of a sudden, Victor Martinez came up with an injured knee and the Detroit Tigers had a hole in the middle of their order. Before long, Fielder was the owner of a nine-year, $214 million contract to play in Motown. Prior to VMart’s injury, Detroit wasn’t even interested in adding Fielder. Boras waited for an opportunity arose and he got a little lucky with a big market team suddenly having a desperate need for a power bat.

In order to get bourn the contract he wants, Boras will have to get a little lucky again.

This time, the big market Texas Rangers suddenly have a desperate need for offense after missing out on Justin Upton, and losing Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton to free agency. According to Jon Heyman, the Rangers have begun to show preliminary interest in the free agent center fielder. They had not previously been linked to Bourn.

Texas has met with Cody Ross as well and they’ve been rumored to in on Nick Swisher. Both of those players fit the needs of the Rangers a bit more than Bourn does in terms of a middle-of-the-order bat. Texas also lacks an established center fielder, however, and the addition of a guy like Bourn could allow Ian Kinsler to hit deeper in the order.

He’s not the same type of player as Hamilton, but Bourn could provide the Rangers enough of a boost to keep pace in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Rangers sudden interest might just mean another face-saving contract for Boras late in the off-season and maintain his reputation as the best agent in baseball.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mariners “like Bourn very much”, and he also mentioned the Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers as two other teams interested in the 29-year-old’s services. Bourn is coming off of the perfect contract year, as he exploded with a career-high 6.4 WAR to go with 42 steals and excellent defense.

Defense and speed are two tools that are key for CFs and two tools that the Mariners have traditionally valued. However, they have been mainly involved in rumors with more powerful corner outfielders, and it seems like they are interested in beefing up the overall power production of this line-up. Bourn is definitely not a power guy, but a .348 OBP in center shows that Bourn has value on offense by getting on base and making things happen when he is on base.

It seems like Bourn’s asking price thus far has been too high, which is why the market hasn’t been as hot as it should be. Speed doesn’t age well, so that’s something else teams are factoring in.

The Mariners have also shown interest in Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth, but Bourn is clearly the superior player and is likely the M’s top target this offseason with all the interest they have shown in him over the winter meetings.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

So why is Bourn one of the last remaining center fielders standing around when nearly all of the available seats have already been filled?

Bourn was supposed to be the best center fielder on the market, so why is he one of the last ones without a job? Image: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies have been seeking a center fielder, but they came up a reported $20 million behind Atlanta in their bid for B.J. Upton. They also were outbid by San Francisco for Angel Pagan. The Nationals were looking for someone to patrol center, but they added Denard Span via trade with the Twins.

Meanwhile, Bourn continues to sit out there on the market. He’s an outstanding defender, a true lead-off man, and a threat to steal 40+ bases every season.

There do remain some teams that could certainly use his services, but none that seem to want to pay the kind of money that Bourn is looking to get. If Upton got better than $15 million per season, most figured that Bourn could command close to $20 million. At this point, he has to be wondering where that money is going to come from.

The traditional big spenders don’t seem to have room either in their budget or in their outfield for Bourn. The Yankees have scrolled back spending and Boston has Jacoby Ellsbury in place. The Dodgers have all three of their outfielders locked up long term. The Texas Rangers could be a possibility, but that only happens if they fail to re-sign Josh Hamilton and fail to swing a deal for Arizona’s Justin Upton. If Bourn is waiting to be the Rangers third option, he may be waiting a while.

The Mets need an outfielder, but there are questions about how much money the Wilpon family can commit to the payroll. You’d like to think that the teams that lose out on the Hamilton sweepstakes could view Bourn as the next best option, but they are so dissimilar as players that the market really isn’t the same.

Boras has played chicken with the market before and he usually wins. Sometimes it takes a stroke of luck, like last year when Victor Martinez tore up his knee in December, opening the door for Price Fielder’s giant contract in Detroit. Again though, Bourn isn’t the cleanup hitter how can mash 40 homers in a season like Fielder or Hamilton. He likely won’t be viewed as the same type of game changer, though he does have a great impact on the offense and defense.

The Cincinnati Reds are probably the best fit for Bourn, but that’s money they won’t spend. If the market falls apart and he has to settle for a one or two year deal, I could see the Reds being in play but more than likely when the season begins, Bourn will be elsewhere. The Mariners need offense of any kind and while they have an elite defensive center fielder already in Franklin Gutierrez, Bourn is a much better all around player and would fit well in the expansive outfield at SafeCo Park, even if the fences are coming in.

The one club that has the money and could use a guy like Bourn that no one is talking about is the Chicago Cubs. They like Brett Jackson a lot, but he’s still very young and has a lot of problems making contact at the plate. Chicago has already made a handful of shrewd moves that will bolster their rotation and allow this club to get significantly better. I’m certain that Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein would love to build from within, but if a player like Bourn is available he’s the type of guy that can speed up the timeline toward contention.

The Braves are still in the mix to re-sign Michael Bourn, but his price tag is thought to be considerably higher than that of Upton. Angel Pagan remains an option, as does Josh Hamilton, though the Braves don’t consider themselves players for Hamilton at this point.

In a market flush with center field talent, it’s Upton who seems to be getting the most attention. Image: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Atlanta is just one of the clubs hot for Upton, who is rumored to be meeting with the Giants at some point this week. Upton has also visited Philadelphia and the Phillies are thought to view Upton as their top choice. Upton has also been mentioned as a fit in TTexas should the Rangers be unable to keep Hamilton.

Washington is also looking at center fielders in case they cannot re-sign first baseman Adam LaRoche, but Upton’s right handed bat wouldn’t be the best fit for a heavily right handed Nats lineup.

The center field shuffle may also feature Shane Victorino, who has drawn interest from as many as a dozen clubs so far. Victorino is widely considered the fifth-best option on the free agent market this year, which shows how deep the pool of center fielders is. Ordinarily, someone in Victorino’s position may have to wait until late in the Winter to sign, but he’s been drawing interest from teams like Cleveland that wouldn’t be involved in the bidding for any of the bigger names this year. If the switch-hitter finds a deal he likes – and he’s looking for a multi-year offer – he may jump at the chance to find regular work quickly.

The Giants are still considered to be the front-runner to keep Pagan, but they’ve already met with Bourn and will meet with Upton. Pagan figures to be the least expensive of the bunch and he’s a known commodity in the San Francisco clubhouse, which makes him their top choice.

Hamilton is a wild card here both because he’s probably a left fielder more than a center fielder at this point and because his contract is likely to reach $25 million per year and that’s enough to price him out of the conversation for most clubs. If he signs with someone like Boston, for example, as a left fielder, that opens up Texas as a team that now enters the fray for Upton or Bourn.

Bourn’s market is less defined than Upton’s so far. He’s a dynamic talent and considered a better all-around player to Upton, but he’s also a few years older and relies on speed more than Upton does. He’s been rumored to be seeking five years and $100 million while Upton’s price range likely lands closer to five years and $75-85 million.

The Braves will wind up signing one of the two, you’d have to figure, but it’s interesting that they seem to prefer Upton to the man who has patrolled center for the past couple of years at Turner Field. The Rangers have also been mentioned more often in connection with Upton and only the Nationals seem to be favoring Bourn between the two.

Bourn signing a deal with Washington would be the best thing that could happen for Upton’s free agency, as then he could sit back and have his choice between as many as three high-revenue club bidding against each other for his services.

If things break just right, Upton could be the biggest winner of a deep and talented center field pool.