Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

One area that is notably weak for many teams entering this year’s World Baseball Classic is the starting rotation. In general, pitchers get injured more often than position players and, as a result, are usually treated more cautiously. Therefore, it is no surprise that many organizations are hesitant to allow their pitchers to throw in games that don’t affect the win-loss record of their particular clubs. However, despite the general trepidation, Team USA has managed to assemble quite an impressive WBC starting rotation.

R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey, Sensei of the staff. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

At the top of the rotation is newly acquired Blue Jay’s knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Dickey is coming off a career year, winning the NL Cy Young award, but was also very good even before last season. Over the past three years, Dickey has posted 2.73, 3.24, and 2.84 ERAs while throwing an average of 205 innings per season over that span. In fact, R.A. Dickey’s 2.95 ERA over that span is good for 11th best of all major league starters. While his fielding independent number’s aren’t quite as good (generally an indicator of luck one way or another), it should be noted that fielding independent statistics don’t generally work as well with knuckleballers as they do when evaluating traditional starters. R.A. Dickey is neither a product of luck nor is he a one-hit wonder, he is a fantastic ace for the USA pitching staff. R.A. Dickey should be feared by opposing countries, as his Karate Kid headband in the picture at right clearly indicates.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez, all natural National. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

What shouldn’t be lost among all the PED allegations around Gio Gonzalez this offseason is that he had a very good 2012, and is more of a 1-a than a number 2 pitcher on this staff. Last season, Gonzalez struck out over a batter an inning and posted a 2.89 ERA for the Nats. The real area of improvement for Gonzalez last year was his walk rate. He went from walking 4.05 batters per 9 to 3.43, and the results followed. Also, Gio’s homerun rate was nearly half of what it was the previous season. Though drastic changes in homerun rates aren’t generally sustainable, improvements in walk rates do generally come with age, so that aspect could certainly be repeated or even improved. If Gio Gonzalez is anywhere close to the pitcher he was last year for the Washington Nationals, he should be a great compliment for R.A. Dickey at the top of this staff.

Ryan Vogelsong

Ryan Vogelsong, started from the bottom. Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Vogelsong, a one-time journeyman pitcher, has turned into a very good major league starter. Before the 2011 season, Vogelsong hadn’t pitched in a major league game since 2006. Since then, he’s had two very good major league seasons for the Giants, with ERAs of 3.37 and 2.71, respectively. He is a guy who fielding independent statistics haven’t necessarily been crazy about, indicating that he may have been on the receiving end of some good luck. However, it’s been two full seasons in a row in which he’s outpitched those numbers, so he should be given some benefit of the doubt. Considering the lack of starting pitching talent among many of the teams in the WBC this year, Vogelsong is likely the best #3 starter in the bunch.

Derek Holland

Derek Holland, presumably “preheating the oven.” Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where the rotation for Team USA starts to get a little thin. The good news, though, is that even the better pitching staffs among the other countries start thinning out far sooner than #4. Despite a lackluster 2012, Holland was actually better than league average in 2010 and 2011. The raw talent is there. His fastball averaged 93 mph in 2012 and 94.2 mph in 2011, as opposed to a league average of about 91.6 mph. However, fastball velocity doesn’t tell the whole story about the effectiveness of a pitcher’s repertoire. Last season Holland got batters to chase at pitches outside the zone and also induced swinging strikes at rates below league average, indicating that his stuff might not be as nasty as a quick glance at velocity may have indicated. Still, Holland has been about a league average major league pitcher over the past three years, which equates to a very good #4 starter in WBC terms. It should also be noted that Holland goes by the nickname “Dutch Oven,” giving him a significant advantage over competitors in terms of hilariousness.

Ross Detwiler

Detwiler, most likely after not inducing one of his trademark groundballs. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The 6’5 lefthander was the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft, and made his major league debut later that same season. Still, despite being a highly-touted, tall lefthander with above average velocity (92.7 mph average fastball last season), Detwiler doesn’t strike many batters out. Rather than racking up Ks, what Detwiler excels at is inducing groundballs, inducing them last year at a rate of 50.8%. Though not a great starting pitcher relative to some other candidates for the roster, the high groundball rate should play extremely well with the excellent USA infield defense. Like Holland, Detwiler has an awesome nickname, National Det (clever, right?). But also like Holland, Detwiler can’t necessarily measure up to the first three pitchers in this rotation. Still, with the dearth of starting pitching in the tournament overall, Detwiler could very well be the better pitcher in most matchups he finds himself in.

Team USA’s rotation is very noticeably without the likes of Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and Clayton Kershaw. Still, the top two pitchers in the rotation represent the first and third place finishers in NL Cy Young voting last season, and pitchers 3-5 are quality major league starters. In a tournament that includes many staffs made up of lower-echelon major leaguers and developing minor league prospects, this group of USA pitchers is more than adequate. The starting rotation should be a strong point for the USA squad come tournament time.

(Image Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

Dickey, winner of the 2012 NL Cy Young Award after going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA with the New York Mets this past season and the subject of plenty of discussion this winter leading up to his trade to the Toronto Blue Jays, will help lead what will likely end up being a strong starting rotation for the international competition. He’ll be joined by Pettitte, one of the most experienced left-handers in the game today who’s won 245 games in his 17 year career. The pair will also likely be among the tournament’s oldest competitors, as Dickey is 38 and Pettitte is 40. Neither has been in the event previously.

Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, who posted an ERA of 1.01 and saved an NL-high 42 games this past season, will also be joining the roster and will lead what appears to be a fairly formidable bullpen. San Diego’s Luke Gregerson and Cleveland’s Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano will reportedly also be available to USA manager Joe Torre.

David Wright, Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Shane Victorino, and Adam Jones will all also reportedly participate for the US squad.

Team USA’s first game is scheduled for March 8th, at Arizona’s Chase Field, against Mexico.

The acquisition of knuckleball king R.A. Dickey, in addition to the willingness to relieve the Miami Marlins of several of their best players, indicates that the Blue Jays believe that the American League East Division is available for the taking. The New York Yankees are old and injured. The Boston Red Sox tried rebuilding, but they are so out of practice at it that they aren’t doing it well. The Baltimore Orioles may well be a one-time fluke. The Rays always get the most out of what they have, but they are budget conscious in the city by the Tampa Bay. So why not us? That’s the mantra at Blue Jays headquarters. (more…)

Dickey, 38, may have more left in him than his age would indicate, as knuckleball throwing hurlers are famous for being able to pitch longer than their flame-throwing counterparts. This goes double for Dickey, who has only logged a little over 1,000 innings in his big league career despite his advanced age — he may find that he has quite a bit left to offer in the next handful of seasons.

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Since joining the Mets in 2010, Dickey has been a different pitcher; he’s gone 39-28 in that time period with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 6.8 batters per nine while walking just 2.2. Last season was easily his best to date, as he took a giant step forward in just about every category, most notably in his ability to get swings and misses: his K/9 rate rose to nearly a batter an inning in 2012, well up from his career rate of 6.3.

The former 18th overall pick in the 1996 amateur draft did have a little luck on his side, as he stranded an even 80.0% of base runners (far above the league average of around 72.0%) and featured a BABIP of just .275, but FanGraphs nonetheless valued his contributions highly enough to credit him with a 3.27 FIP and 4.6 WAR. As long as his recent improvements aren’t an anomaly, the Blue Jays will be getting a top-of-the-line starter to join Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, and the recently acquired Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle.

The other players involved in the trade have not officially announced, but the speculation is that this is a 4-for-3 deal that has the Mets also parting with Josh Thole and a prospect in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, and a prospect. While much of the trade will hinge on how well d’Arnaud and Syndergaard pan out in their major league careers, this is still an understandable move from Toronto’s standpoint. They’ve clearly shifted to all-in mode with the acquisition of Jose Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle a month ago, and acquiring a pitcher like Dickey makes their rotation a force to be reckoned with. Furthermore, d’Arnaud has an extensive injury history and would not be as highly rated of a prospect if he were to move off the catcher position, a possibility that does exist.

In any case, Dickey is a huge acquisition for the Blue Jays, and until the other players in the trade are named officially, his value to the team is the only subject that can safely be discussed without getting ahead of ourselves.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

R.A. Dickey could cement Toronto’s rotation as one of the most intriguing in baseball. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PREWIRE

Dickey has been the hottest name in baseball when it comes to rumored trades, and he is an extremely interesting target for teams wanting to add an impact starting pitcher. Then again, most everything about Dickey is interesting. He’s a 38-year-old who just so happens to thrive with a knuckle ball. He spent his entire Major League career from 2001 to 2009 as a relative nobody, bouncing around between the Rangers, Brewers, Mariners, and Twins before finding a home with the Mets.

But then something changed. Dickey started generating tons of ground balls, stopped walking anyone, and put together a pair of nice seasons in 2010 and 2011. Those two seasons featured 383 innings authored by the 6’2″ right-hander, and he managed an eye-popping 3.08 ERA and 2.3 BB/9 rate in them. As nice as Dickey’s late-career run looked, there were still reasons to doubt his ability to keep up his newly-established pace; after all, he wasn’t missing bats. and who really knows what to expect from a guy who relies so heavily on a knuckler?

That all changed went Dickey went nuts on the National League in 2012, putting up a 2.73 ERA, leading the league in innings pitched and strikeouts, and of course taking home what was most certainly his first Cy Young trophy. There will always be at least a bit of skepticism surrounding Dickey because of the methods he uses to succeed, but with two good seasons and one great one in the last three, he has to be considered one of the better pitchers in the game at this point whether anyone is comfortable with it or not. He seems like a good bet to make whatever team has him in uniform proud even if his next season looks more like 2011 than 2012. Add in the fact that Dickey is only slated to make $5 million in 2013, and you have a tantalizing trade chip.

With the Blue Jays set to pick up Dickey in a package centering around top prospect Travis d’Arnaud (.333/.380/.595 for AAA Las Vegas in 2012) if a trade gets finalized, he could make a huge difference for a Toronto team that seems on the cusp of contending for the first time in forever. Dickey would join new acquisitions Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, and Ricky Romero in a rotation that is simply brimming with talent and potential. There is certainly risk to be found throughout the rotation, but there’s also a whole lot to like.

Johnson, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s had his share of injury concerns, but he bounced back well in 2012 even if he didn’t put up the lights-out season many expected. Johnson was still good for 191 1/3 innings of 3.40 FIP ball, and he was worth 3.8 WAR in the process. That WAR figure tied him for 20th in all of baseball among starting pitchers, even with guys like Matt Cain and Anibal Sanchez. Buehrle, Johnson’s former Miami teammate, is a different sort of pitcher, a consistent mid-rotation cog made to eat up innings, limit walks, and provide stealth value. He’s dependable and really helps solidify a rotation with so many high-impact, high-risk arms.

Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero are different in that they have, in a sense, proven themselves to be lottery tickets. Morrow is already very good despite his reputation as a work in progress, he just hasn’t been able to keep himself away from the disabled list. He’s only 28, and his third-straight quality season was limited to just 124 2/3 innings in 2012. Morrow has proven he can miss bats with the best of them (career 9.63 K/9 rate), and his walk rate in 2012 was down to 2.9/9 from his career mark of 4.2/9. If he stays unbroken, Morrow will join Johnson as one of the best starters in either league once again.

Romero is still just 28 and had three very good seasons under his belt before dropping his strikeout rate and forgetting where the strike zone was in 2012. Romero’s career BB/9 rate was an acceptable 3.5 going into last season, so it wasn’t expected that he would suddenly lead the league in walks (105) and post a BB/9 rate of 5.2. He’s certainly still young enough to turn things around again, but his leash will almost certainly be a lot shorter going forward.

The exciting thing about this 2013 Blue Jays rotation is that there are no dead ends in the bunch. If Dickey becomes a Blue Jay, he joins Johnson and Morrow to form an extremely formidable front three if everyone stays healthy. Buehrle represents the anchor of the staff, while a resurgent Romero could mean there isn’t a single weak link in the chain. The Blue Jays have a chance to do something special next season, and R.A. Dickey could go a long way toward helping the team’s rotation be one of the best in either league.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Oct. 2, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) swings at a pitch during a game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

I suppose by now we all just accept as fact that the New York Mets are a punchline. This is a reality. Sometimes it can be amusing, but mostly it’s just the context in which we live—the Mets doing stupid stuff is like air, you just live in it, breathe it in, you don’t think about it or else you’d lie awake at night hyperventilating. We don’t have the time, or strong enough muscles in our fingers, to rehash the woeful chronicle of the Met’s incompetence. There were drugs and Ponzi scheme’s and losing of baseball games and all sorts of other unmentionables. There was a lot of it, whatever it was. And now we are here, in the present, in the middle of the most current example of Metropolitan maelstrom, their contract negotiations with the knuckleballing and reigning Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.

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Things haven’t progressed well.

The biggest reason: the Mets have apparently been low-balling their star hurler. According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, the Mets have only just now stepped their offer up to where we had heard it was last week.

The breakdown: A two-year contract extension at about $10 million per season, in addition to the $5 million already owned to Dickey in 2013. Despite reports to the contrary, Mets sources insisted that the team had not offered that much during last week’s winter meetings.

As the Daily News has been reporting, Dickey has been asking for a two-year extension for approximately $26 million, totaling $31 million over three years.

Meanwhile, the Mets continue to listen to trade offers for their staff ace.

Dickey spoke earlier today and Adam Rubin was there. According to Rubin, Dickey indicated that he’s displeased with the way the talks with the Mets have gone. He considers his asking price to be “more than generous” and lower than what he would get if he were negotiating as a free agent. He also said he’d likely sign elsewhere should the Mets decide to simply have Dickey play out the final year of his contract.

There’s a misconception floating around about Dickey and the amount of success he’s had. This guy didn’t simply come out of nowhere to dominate the National League in 2012, he’s had three consecutive outstanding seasons. Over the past three years, Dickey has averaged 206 innings per year and posted a 2.95 ERA and a 3.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are better numbers across the baord than the ones Zack Greinke compiled over his last three years and he just signed for $25 million per year.

Now, obviously there is an age difference between Greinke and Dickey that makes the comparison of contracts dicey. No one will be give=ing a 38-year-old pitcher a six-year deal. But when you consider the numbers and realize that Dickey is asking for only half as much in average annual value as what Greinke got from the Dodgers, it’s hard to argue that Dickey is the one playing hardball in these talks.

The longer these negotiations play out, the worse this deal gets for the Mets. If they aren’t willing to pay a price that is considerably lower than market value for a guy who has been among the best in baseball over the past three years, then they should ennd the charade and trade him now. If Dickey goes into the season as a Met and without an extension in place, New York loses all the leverage in trade talks and could potentially watch him walk away with no return whatsoever.

Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

Splitting time in Double-A and Triple-A last season, Myers drove in nearly 110 runs with a monstrous .600 slugging percentage and 37 home runs to go with a .314 batting average. He is arguably the best hitting prospect in baseball and has all the tools to be an elite hitter in this game with his power and ability to hit to all fields. Myers’s pitch recognition is also something that deserves praise.

A potential trade involving Myers for Dickey isn’t the only thing the Royals and Mets are talking about, because the Mets biggest need this offseason is bullpen help. They have been actively discussing a deal to acquire a reliever from the Royals, but it is unclear how talks have progressed in this regard.

The Royals have made it apparent that they aren’t willing to part ways with Myers easily, given his enormous wealth of potential and incredible hitting capability. But I’d bet they’d be willing to discuss a deal with the Mets when it involves a pitcher the caliber of Dickey, even if the Royals would much rather trade a haul of less-heralded prospects.

In the end, I don’t think it’s in the best interest for the Royals to do this sort of a deal.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Sources say #Mets have gotten “serious” about trading R.A. Dickey as soon as this week. #Rangers & #Royals seen as most logical fits.

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 3, 2012

Sep 27, 2012; Flushing, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PREWIRE

Both Texas and Kansas City have been shopping for starting pitching and both clubs have a plethora of young talent with which to deal. Texas has been hesitant to include top prospect Jurickson Profar ina trade talks this Winter, but have been open to talking about top third base prospect Mike Olt. They also have young pitching they could deal, such as left hander Martin Perez or Derek Holland, who struggled down the stretch in 2012. Of course, with David Wright just extended, the Mets would have to shift Olt to the outfield were they to add him.

The Royals have been dangling Wil Myers, one of the top four or five prospects in all of baseball, this Winter, but it’s unlikely they’d trade him for a 38-year-old hurler. Though his knuckleball should keep dancing well into his forties, Dickey probably cannot command the same return in trade that the Royals were offering for James Shields or Jon Lester. The Royals do have some good young arms to offer, however, which might be enough to entice the Mets to deal.

Dickey is looking for at least a two year extension added to the $5 million he’s set to earn in 2013. It’s been said that he’s looking for $20 million in such a deal. That’s a price well within reason for a guy who just finished up a Cy Young Award-winning season for a bad Mets club.

The Rangers and Royals have been named as such, but there will be plenty of additional suitors lining up to get Sandy Alderson’s ear as well. With the prices of starting pitchers on the free agent market escalating, Dickey would be a relative bargain.

Heck, the knuckleball is such a goofy pitch that we don’t know if Dickey will even be able to repeat the kind of success he had during the 2012 season. Not to mention that Dickey is 38 and has never had a season like this before. Of course, when it comes to knuckleball specialists age means less than it does when dealing with 95-mph fastball guys. The stress on the arm just isn’t there. Witness the Red Sox’s Tim Wakefield pitching until he was 44. Witness Hall of Famer Hoyt Wilhelm pitching until he was 49. Witness Hall of Famer Phil Niekro pitching until he was 48. (more…)