Soriano could easily picture being shunted into a setup role and he knew he would have more fun as a closer. Shopping around he got a two-year deal from the Washington Nationals, a team on the rise that looks to be better than the Yankees this coming summer. The irony, of course, will be if Rivera, the all-time saves leader, can’t come back at full strength after the knee operation that wiped out most of 2012 for him. Then the Yankees (boo-hoo) won’t have a closer.

Rafael Soriano became the Yankees’ closer in 2012 when Mariano Rivera got hurt, then after a 42-save season signed with the Washington Nationals for 2013. Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

I have been a skeptic from the first whether or not Rivera would make it all of the way back to the Yankees in his same critical role when he really wanted to retire after last year. Rivera felt he just couldn’t end his likely Hall of Fame career on the disabled list, so he pledged to rehab and recover and fight back to pitch this year.

We still don’t know if he can do it, but it’s obvious he’s trying. Rivera may walk out on the mound in spring training, fire a few pitches, and get rocked because he lost his zip at age 43. Or, he might start the season as the closer looking good and his repaired knee might not hold up. In either case, Soriano will be chuckling from afar. He was an insurance policy last year that was cashed in and prevented bullpen catastrophe in the Bronx.

Soriano pitched and talked his way into a $28 million contract for Washington with a possible third year. Even the big-spending Yankees didn’t want to spend that big. The Nationals are counting on the 33-year-old righty being the same guy he was last year when he saved 42 games with a 2.26 earned run average. Since Soriano has had an up-and-down, around-the-block career, there is no guarantee he will repeat those numbers. However, he pretty much did the same work in 2010 for Tampa Bay when he saved 45 games with a 1.73 ERA. So it could happen.

Rivera made it clear last year that it was playing his final season and then he was going to wave adios and return to Panama with his reputation intact as the finest closer in history. Then after nine games and five saves Rivera ripped up his knee. A 12-time All-Star in 18 seasons, and a five-time World Series champion, Rivera, who throws a cut fastball 90 percent of the time, has 608 career saves. He’s at the top of the list there. His lifetime average is 2.21.

It’s difficult to imagine, but Rivera has actually been more effective in the post-season. He has 42 playoff or World Series saves on his resume and a post-season ERA of 0.70.

A month into the 2012 season Rivera tore his right ACL catching fly balls in the outfield in pre-game practice in Kansas City. It was a fluke injury, but a bad one. There are no certainties that an athlete well into his 40s can bounce back with the same skill after a serious injury and a long rehab. Everyone will be happy for Rivera if he comes back as good as new, but that’s difficult to predict.

Meanwhile, Soriano will be off in the National League, trying to earn his millions and trying to prove that the Yankees should have kept him around. As the Mayhem guy in those commercials demonstrates, you can never have too much insurance.

(Image Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports)

Soriano posted a 2.26 ERA and 1.167 WHIP over 67.2 innings this past season with the New York Yankees, adding 9.2 K/9. He stepped into the closer’s role once Mariano Rivera went down with an injury early in the season and would go on to save 42 games. The 33 year old arguably had the best overall season of his career.

Yet, after opting out of the final year of his contract with the Yankees and then declining the team’s qualifying offer there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding his future. Heading into the offseason there were few that expected he’d return to the Yankees, given the likelihood that the team would return the closer’s role to Rivera assuming he’s healthy at the start of Spring Training (which he’s expected to be). Soriano wanted an opportunity to close but few teams had such a perceived need. Detroit was the widespread favorite to sign him, particularly after the team’s bullpen faltered in the World Series, but the Tigers never materialized as a true option given their desire to avoid losing a draft pick as compensation for signing him to a lucrative deal on the open market. The Los Angeles Dodgers were briefly linked to him earlier this week but nothing ever materialized from those rumblings.

By declining the Yankees’ qualifying offer Soriano’s fate became tied to draft pick compensation, a detail which clearly affected his interest on the open market as most teams have been reluctant to sign such free agents this winter. Washington will forfeit their 1st pick in this June’s draft and will have to sacrifice a portion of their bonus pool as a result of the signing. New York, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st Round.

It has been widely speculated since news of the signing first broke that Soriano appears the most likely candidate to step right into the closer’s role in Washington, despite the team’s current options. Drew Storen had been the incumbent closer but the team also could have turned to Tyler Clippard. The pair will likely work in tandem in a setup role in front of Soriano, provided one isn’t dealt between now and the start of the regular season. Washington’s bullpen is likely set from the right side – adding Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, Henry Rodriguez, and Christian Garcia to the mix – but lacks a strong left-handed option. This past season, however, Soriano held left-handed batters to a .221 batting average while Clippard held them to just a .170 mark – so the team does have some internal options who are capable of getting left-handed hitters out despite throwing from the right side.

September 7, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Carlos Marmol (49) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Chicago Cubs won 12-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Marmol collected just 20 saves last season and was in and out of the closer’s role. His last season of dominance came in 2010, but even then he was walking far too many hitters. Though Marmol has fanned almost 12 batters per nine innings over his career, he’s also walked half that many. Last season, Marmol saw his walk rate climb to 7.3.

It’s one thing to be effectively wild. It’s another entirely to simply be wild.

In addition to his inconsistencies, Marmol is owed just shy of $10 million for the 2013 season, though it’s expected the Cubs would be willing to pick up part of that tab in order to facilitate a deal. Chicago has newly-signed Japanese righty Kyuji Fujikawa ready to serve as Marmol’s set-up man, but he’s been a top closer in Japan for the better part of a decade and could easily claim the job.

Marmol joins Pittsburgh’s Joel Hanrahan on the trade market and there are a few closer’s left on the free agent market as well in Rafael Soriano, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde. What’s unclear is where any of these guys will find an opportunity to close games.

A brief jaunt through the league brings only a handful of places where a job may even be possible and none of them are premium locations for free agents. Teams like Miami or Houston could use a ninth inning man and such a pitcher could use a one-year deal and figure to build value to be traded to a contender at the deadline.

Other teams like Detroit or Toronto may have openings, but prefer to go with in-house options instead of paying a premium for saves.

In the case of each of these pitchers, a job pitching in middle relief is far more likely to come, as is the paycheck normally given to pitchers in those roles. Soriano, in particular, grossly mis-judged the closer’s market when he opted out of a $14 million 2013 salary with the Yankees in an attempt to land a multi-year deal. He may wind up getting his $14 million back, but it might have to be spread over three seasons for him to do it.

The Prates have been lamenting the lack of interest in Hanrahan on the trade market and I expect the Cubs will find similar struggles in moving Marmol.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Tigers’ interest in Soriano and free agent shortstop Stephen Drew is overblown and a deal for Indians’ shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, which has also been rumored, isn’t happening either. The Tigers are one of the teams on Cabrera’s no-trade list, Rosenthal says.

Soriano left $14 million on the table in New York and now needs Detroit to get in the mix. Image: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Moments after Rosenthal’s report, fellow MLB Network insider Peter Gammons said on air that Soriano ‘s market includes the Tigers. Gammons’ rationale is that the window for the Tigers to win is now and cited agent Scott Boras’ good working relationship with Tigers owner Mike Ilitch. Both of those things are true, but the underlining truth of the situation is that Soriano and Boras need the Tigers to be interested or the entire market for the former Yankees closer is basically gone.

The Tigers have maintained that young Bruce Rondon will be given every chance to close games for the big club in 2013 and reports have him hitting 103 mph while throwing in the Winter Leagues. Could they be downplaying their interest in Soriano by hyping Rondon’s potential? It’s possible, of course, but I think Dave Dombrowski genuinely feels that spending on a closer is a fool’d errand this Winter. Whether Ilitch agrees or winds up green-lighting a deal for Soriano is another question.

Jhonny Peralta had a rough year at the plate for the Tigers in 2012, but according to some advanced defensive metrics, was pretty good with the glove. He is severely limited in terms of range, however, and with Miguel Cabrera playing third base, the Tigers could use a guy that covers more ground. Both Drew and Asdrubal Cabrera would fit that bill, but Rosenthal says Detroit was only looking at a one-year deal for Drew, who is seeking a multi-year contract.

Rosenthal says the Tigers are focused on finding a right handed hitting left fielder to platoon with Andy Dirks and also to find a left handed reliever to pair with Phil Coke.

This is the first I had heard of Detroit’s interest in a southpaw. While they did choose to part ways with former first-round pick Daniel Schlereth this week, the Tigers have Darren Downs, who pitched to a 3.48 ERA and struck out nearly a batter per inning in a limited role in 2012. They also have a couple of starters in Drew Smyly and Casey Crosby that could see time in the big league bullpen.

Smyly pitched well in that role during the post-season. If the Tigers are able to re-sign Anibal Sanchez, it’s possible Smyly gets bumped from the rotation. What this could indicate is that either the Tigers are no longer confident they’ll be able to retain Sanchez or that fellow starter Rick Porcello would be the odd man out if they do.

Meanwhile, the most impressive closer in the league last season, Rafael Soriano, has opted out of the final year of his contract with the Yankees and is seeking a new deal. His timing, it seems, couldn’t have been worse. With Mariano Rivera nearing a deal to re-claim his job in New York and major market clubs like the Dodgers and Angels already sewing up their bullpen issues, Soriano is likely regretting leaving $14 million on the table in his quest for a multi-year contract.

Soriano was due to earn $14 million in New York, but opted for free agency. Image: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Enter Scott Boras, Soriano’s agent, and his relationship with Detroit Tigers owner Mike Ilitch. For the better part of a decade, Boras has found a home for some of his toughest free agent cases by picking up the phone and working directly with the Tigers boss. In 2004, it was Pudge Rodriguez who couldn’t find more than two years from any other club, but Mr. Ilitch and the Tigers gave him four years at $10 million per season and even threw in a fifth year option.

It’s a pattern that has repeated itself over and again including last year when Prince Fielder found himself without his desired mega-deal come January. Within a matter of a couple of days, Boras and Ilitch had hammered out a nine-year contract to bring Fielder to Detroit when no one else was offering even five years.

Now, with Boras perhaps sensing that the market for his top relief client is nowhere near what he was hoping, he has turned to Ilitch again. The two spoke on the phone on Monday according to veteran baseball insider Peter Gammons, who noted the conversation during an appearance on MLB Network Tuesday morning.

Soriano is said to be seeking a four-year contract in the neighborhood of $60 million and is without a doubt the top closer available on the market this year. In a climate where more and more teams seem to be turning away from high-priced closing options, however, Soriano will have a lot of trouble coming close to this deal.

Unless, of course, his agent can convince the billionaire in Detroit to open up the checkbook once again.

Tigers President and GM Dave Dombrowski would surely, given his druthers, like to have a relief ace like Soriano at the back end of his bullpen. He understands, however, that his team is already well-stocked with high impact bullpen arms with as many as a half dozen relievers in Detroit capable of closing out a win. Money that could be given to Soriano is better spent on retaining Anibal Sanchez or on adding an outfield bat or on upgrading the shortstop position; all things said to be on Dombrowski’s to-do list.

But when it comes to chasing the elusive World Series crown, Mike Ilitch tends to throw caution, and budgetary constraints, to the wind. It’s what Scott Boras is counting on. The Tigers’ great success with Boras clients certainly makes the idea more palatable to the owner as well.

If Ilitch listens to his baseball people, Boras will have to find a new owner to sidle up and whisper sweet nothings to. But Boras has sweet-talked Ilitch before and each time the Tigers owner has ponied up the cash.

Rafael Soriano has gambled $14 million on Boras being able to do it again.

Folks in New York look forward to seeing Rivera back in uniform next season. Image: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Both Pettitte and Rivera are free agents, both are on the wrong side of 40, and both have either already been retired, and openly considered it. Still, in the case with these two, the Yankees are still a much more formidable team if the pair of veteran hurlers are on the roster.

George King III of the New York Post explained that the Yankees have yet to make an offer to either pitcher and said they hadn’t made an offer to catcher Russell Martin or any other free agent, either. Well, obviously they made an offer to Kuroda, who was a free agent, in order to sign him. Saying they haven’t made an offer to anyone else is probably playing a game of semantics. Has there been an official offer sheet given to the representatives of Pettitte or Rivera? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been any kind of financial discussions. Remember, Torii Hunter met with the Tigers in person last week, then left town ”without an offer.” The next day a contract was in place between the he and Detroit.

Just as they did with Pettitte a year ago and, to a lesser extend, with Derek Jeter when his last contract ended, the Yankees are in a position where they are the only team negotiating with these players. In each case, if they want to continue their careers, it will be done in New York or nowhere. GM Brian Cashman then must bargain not only based upon the expected contribution levels of well-past-their-prime superstars, but negotiate exactly how much past championships are worth in 2013.

Pettitte came out of retirement to re-join the Yankees last season and did so on a $2.5 million deal. Given the success he had in an injury-shortened 2012, Pettitte could certainly command a higher salary this time around. He hasn’t officially notified the Yankees that he intends to pitch next season, but Jon Heyman says they expect he will and Pettitte will likely tell them by early next week.

The Yankees not only got by after Rivera went down with injury last season, they flourished. Once Rafael Soriano was given the job, he dominated hitters in a manner similar to what Rivera has done in his career. Well, that’s not really fair. Soriano was outstanding last season, saving 42 games and pitching to a 2.26 ERA. The last time Rivera had an ERA that high? 2007. In fact, Rivera’s career ERA is a mere 2.21 and that career spans 18 seasons and over 1000 appearances.

So not only can we reasonably expect Rivera to be better than Soriano or any other closer in baseball next season, even at age 43 and even coming off knee surgery, but we can expect that he’ll settle for a contract that pays him less than the $14 million Soriano was set to make (and opted out of) in 2013.

Regardless of whether or not the Yankees have made any official offers, rest assured both sides have a good idea of where the other stands. No doubt Cashman would like to get these deal wrapped up before the Winter Meetings begin in early December. The Yankees still have a handful of holes to fill and it sounds like Cashman may have a real budget to stay within this year. It will be interesting to see how he handles that.

Soriano posted 42 saves and a 2.26 ERA as Rivera’s replacement in 2012. Image: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Soriano’s agent, Scott Boras, indicated to Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Soriano was likely to test the free agent waters with one year left on his deal. Soriano signed with the Yankees prior to the 2011 campaign in a deal that was widely panned at the time. The three-year, $35 million pact was outrageous considering Soriano was to be used as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera. Of course, when River went down with a knee injury early this season, it was Soriano who eventually settled into the ninth-inning role and did so with dominance.

By declining his option, Soriano would receive a $1.5 million buyout and could then negotiate a multi-year contract, either with the Yankees or another club. Certainly, he would stand to lose money in terms of his 2013 salary, but he may be willing to trade that for the security of a three-year deal.

With Rivera set to return to the Yankees in 2013, Soriano would be facing the specter of another year as a set-up man, which could hurt his market value in 2014. The Yankees are said to be trying to trim payroll, however, so re-signing Soriano is not a given by any stretch. Soriano would be trying to capitalize on his 2012 campaign and his value will probably never be higher than it is this Winter, but he’s still likely to leave a lot of money on the table when it comes time to sign a new deal. There just aren’t many teams willing to spend eight figures figures on a relief pitcher these days. And most of the ones who are willing don’t have the need. It could be a surprising off-season for Soriano and his agent.

Instead, Soriano became one of the best insurance policies money can buy and the Yankees are still in the hunt to capture the American League East Division title because Soriano performed a near-impeccable imitation of Rivera. The Yankees and surprising Baltimore Orioles are fighting it out to win the division crown, but without Soriano the Yankees might be battling with the Boston Red Sox for last place. Going into Sunday’s play Soriano has 39 saves and a 2.10 earned run average.

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It’s all Bobby Valentine’s problem now and if you don’t think the .500 Red Sox (43-43) have problems, then why do they have guys wearing numbers like 77 and 66 in their lineup against their bitter rivals? Those are the kinds of numbers that get passed out in cattle-call tryouts. Or if Wayne Gretzky is playing for you.

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