Los Angeles Dodger Clayton Kershaw has become one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years and the question is if he can lead his team to a championship. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Seems as if I’ve twice heard Don Mattingly trying to tamp down expectations for his Los Angeles Dodgers this season, which seeing as how management has spent a gazillion dollars to upgrade the team talent that’s not only hard to do, but foolish to do. Managers frequently say they play the cards they are dealt and it looks to those of us gazing upon LA from a distance that Mattingly has a full house.

Yes, we get it that the San Francisco Giants are the defending World Series champions and have won two titles in three years and that they play in the same National League West Division as the Dodgers, but it’s terribly difficult to repeat and the Dodgers are loaded. It’s not as if Mattingly is blending his freshman class into the frontcourt, the Dodgers are built to win now. It’s not mandatory that they win the division crown during the regular season, but they had better make the playoffs or Mattingly will be fired. They’d also better do some winning in the playoffs or Magic Johnson will stop smiling.

The Dodgers have the goods for success, including the bankrolls of an ownership group including Magic. Clayton Kershaw is the ace of the pitching staff and Matt Kemp would be the ace of anyone’s outfield. Recent additions Adrian Gonzalez, Zach Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford can add star power and just power to the Dodgers’ lineup. The only problem is they are not all healthy. Greinke just came up with some kind of elbow twinge which could impinge on his early-season pitching. Ramirez is out for weeks following torn thumb-ligament surgery and Crawford spent his entire employment with the Boston Red Sox injured.

While the Dodgers will become the darlings of the Hollywood set and get all kinds of publicity as player fortunes ebb and flow, the Giants will keep up their steady work. No team remains static and San Francisco seemed to get all of the breaks it needed last year in the post-season, too, but overlook them at your peril.

Examining the Giants’ lineup piece by piece it seems the the sum of the whole is more impressive than the individual components. Outside of catcher Buster Posey, who is one of the gems in the sport, the remainder of the lineup doesn’t blow anybody away. Yet guys like Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro come through in the clutch. The starting pitching, anchored by Matt Cain, is exceptional. One would think a team that lost its closer, Brian Wilson, would flail around in the bullpen, but manager Bruce Bochy pushed all the right buttons and Wilson wasn’t even missed.

The biggest question for San Francisco is what the deal is with righty Tim Lincecum. Can he regain his Cy Young form? Will he become a spot starter, middle reliever, or just how will he be used?

Whatever I say about the Arizona Diamondbacks will be wrong. Whenever I think they might challenge for the division lead they plummet into mediocrity. Whenever I think they might threaten to finish last, they challenge for the title. This year I am going to predict mediocrity and that’s because I don’t see much hitting to count on in the day-to-day lineup. How much will Adam Eaton help? After a 22-game cameo last year he was supposed to be the next big thing, but he has an elbow problem that is supposed to bench him for weeks. What kind of year will Justin Upton have? Who is Paul Goldschmidt. The Diamondbacks’ pitching should be better than their hitting, but that doesn’t says much.

The main thing the San Diego Padres have going for them besides sunshine is that the Colorado Rockies are in the same division. I think it’s finally too late to re-activate Tony Gwynn so when I look at the projective starting lineup I mostly see a hitting wasteland. Third baseman Chase Headley is the best regular, but he has a broken thumb. Other than that several of San Diego’s regulars may be guys who showed flashes with other teams, but were shipped out of town.  The Padres’ opening-day starter is scheduled to be Edinson Valquez who was the odd man out in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation.

Then there are the Rockies. It should be a rocky summer for the Rockies. I’d like to see a healthy Todd Helton have one more excellent season before he calls it quits. Troy Tulowitzki anchors shortstop. Carlos Gonzalez is the future of the franchise, but it’s hard to say that about anyone in the pitching rotation. Colorado had the busiest bullpen in the universe in 2012.

This is how things look in the National League West Division for 2013: 1) San Francisco Giants; 2) Los Angeles Dodgers; 3) Arizona Diamondbacks; 4) San Diego Padres; 5) Colorado Rockies.

Rick Porcello continues to draw interest on the trade market but there are no certainties that the Tigers will move him before the season begins. (Image Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

Rick Porcello has remained one of the most common names discussed this Spring as a possible trade target and it would seem that multiple teams continue to show an interest in acquiring the right-hander from the Detroit Tigers, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTR. At least five teams – the Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and St. Louis Cardinals – have all been linked to the 24 year old in some fashion recently but questions remain about whether the Tigers will indeed move him.

Detroit’s hesitation is somewhat understandable, particularly given the high value placed on starting pitching depth. The team reportedly will not move Porcello unless they receive a “strong return”. He’s currently slated to be the team’s 5th starter, with Drew Smyly either taking a role in the bullpen or returning to Triple-A to start. Smyly would be the first option to replace Porcello in the rotation should the team end up making a move.

Based on the team’s current and most pressing needs, it seems only natural that the Tigers will focus on bullpen help (i.e. someone who could potentially close) and a right-handed hitting outfielder in any potential deal.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports suggest that talks have not progressed far between the Rangers and Tigers, but names have been exchanged between the two sides. Specifically, the Tigers have interest in a pair of Rangers prospects – shortstop Leury Garcia and right-hander Nick Tepesch. Detroit wants a third player in a deal, according to Rosenthal, but the Rangers appear to be balking at the high price.

Boston appears to have interest in Porcello and could match up well with the Tigers on a deal, but it seems they are hesitant to break up their bullpen mix. A deal involved right-hander Andrew Bailey could make sense for both sides, given Detroit’s need for help at the back of their bullpen. The two players also match up fairly closely in terms of 2013 salaries (Porcello’s slated to earn $5.1 Million, while Bailey will make $4.1 Million).

Baltimore and St. Louis have had scouts watch Porcello throw of late, but neither team is expected to be serious suitors.

San Diego has also had multiple conversations with the Tigers, and may have made the most progress on a potential deal, reportedly turning down multiple offers according to Jim Bowden. Detroit offered the team two separate deals involving either Huston Street or Luke Gregorson and the Padres rejected both proposals. Bowden suggests that talks are continuing between the two sides but there’s no certainty that a deal will be reached.

While there appears to be little urgency to getting a deal complete, it would be safe to assume that the Tigers would like to resolve the matter before the regular season begins in about two weeks. With a deal in place, the team can head into the season with some of their pending questions addressed (pending what they receive in return, of course). Without a deal, Porcello can focus on getting opposing hitters out and the rumors will cease to be a distraction for the time being. Detroit could look to move him before the July trade deadline as well. He’ll still be under team control for three more seasons following this year, meaning there will be some value to a team that acquires him no matter when a deal is completed.

Chase Headley is easily the most valuable player on the Padres roster but a thumb injury could keep him out of the Opening Day lineup. (Image Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

Over the weekend San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley jammed his left thumb trying to break up a double play. Initially it appeared that he would simply miss a few days, but now it would appear as though there’s a chance that the team’s most valuable hitter may be in danger of missing Opening Day.

Headley is coming off of one of the top overall offensive seasons in Padres history, a year in which he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 HR, 31 2B, and a league-leading 115 RBI. He reached base safely in 146 games, eclipsing a franchise record held by none other than Tony Gwynn. Headley walked a career high 86 times, finished 5th in NL MVP voting, was named NL Player of the Month in both August and September, and took home both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award. For a Padres lineup without much offensive star power, Headley’s a key force in the middle.

Yet, Headley’s potential absence from the lineup spells trouble for the franchise for reasons beyond the lack of offensive punch. San Diego is bound to struggle early without their key hitter in the lineup which, depending on how much time he’ll miss, could be detrimental to any shred of hope they have for competing this season. However, with the Padres expected to struggle this season there has already been speculation that they could look to move Headley before July’s trade deadline. Him missing time could seriously hamper those plans.

San Diego has a pair of internal options should Headley hit the DL. Logan Forsythe and Jedd Gyorko were both expected to come into camp to battle for the team’s opening at second base. Forsythe, a strong defender, has been sidelined for the past two weeks with plantar fasciitis which has all but taken him out of the running. Gyorko, arguably the team’s top offensive prospect, appears to be the favorite to start at second. Both players have spent the bulk of their careers at third, meaning it shouldn’t be an issue asking them to move back over to the position, but it would subsequently create an additional hole in the lineup unless they are both fully healthy at the start of the year.

Edinson Volquez will be a free agent at season’s end, but he hopes to remain in San Diego. (Image Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

Twenty-nine year old right-hander Edinson Volquez will reach free agency for the first time in his career after the 2013 season. Having been traded twice in his career and now a part of his third organization, Volquez is hoping to remain with the San Diego Padres, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union Tribune, and would like to work out an extension with the franchise before he hits the open market.

Volquez has been tough to predict throughout his career. He’d thrown 80.0 innings across 20 appearances with the Texas Rangers over the 2005-2007 seasons, posting a 3-11 record and 7.20 ERA. He hadn’t done much to impress against Major League hitters, but there was still enough talent there for some interest to develop across the league. Texas dealt Volquez after the 2007 season, along with Danny Herrera, to the Cincinnati Reds for Josh Hamilton.

2008 proved to be a banner year for Volquez. He made 32 starts for the Reds, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA over 196.0 IP. He added a 1.327 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, an All Star Game appearance, and finished 4th in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. Expectations were high, but Volquez wasn’t able to sustain that performance. He was limited to just 9 starts the following year and then missed 50 games in 2010 while serving a suspension for violating the league’s performance enhancing drug policy. Following another subpar season in 2011 the Reds included Volquez in a package – with Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger – that they sent to the Padres for Mat Latos.

Volquez seemingly found himself once again this past season with San Diego. He made 32 starts, pitching 182.2 innings. He went 11-11 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.451 WHIP on the year. He was reliable and consistent, but did lead the league by allowing 105 walks (5.2 BB/9). Volquez and the team reached an agreement on a $5.275 Million deal for the 2013 season, avoiding arbitration. He’s projected to be the team’s number one starter and could get the nod on Opening Day.

It’s tough to gauge what the Padres may want to do beyond this season. The team has operated within very stringent financial territory in recent years, seemingly reluctant to spend in order to retain some of their players. Volquez could be a player the team might have interest in re-signing, but he’ll need to show another solid season with some improvements in his command before a multi year deal is likely to be put on the table. His inconsistent history is enough to justify waiting until the season ends. Even with a strong showing in 2013 it still may be a surprise if Volquez ends up getting a deal beyond three years and more than $20 Million.

I hope I don’t get to the free agent market. I’d like to stay a Padre. I think they know that. I love it here. I see a future with the Padres and I like everything about San Diego, the food, the weather, the community.

Volquez is saying the right things. He’s also reportedly helping counsel Grandal on how to handle his upcoming suspension. Now he just needs to perform on the mound for the team to want to re-sign him at year’s end.

Sep 9, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley (right) is congratulated by third base coach Glenn Hoffman (left) after hitting a grand slam home run during the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres offseason was as quiet as one would expect for a team that enters spring training with the second lowest payroll in the National League. There were no major additions made by GM Josh Byrnes even though the team went 47-36 from July 1 to the end of the season. Stuck in the hyper competitive NL West, the Padres have limited resources to attract impact players and their organization is not loaded with premium talent.

For the 2013 season, the Padres renovated Petco Park. The Bizarro World pitchers park in a bandbox universe had its dimensions reduced and the height of its walls shortened. Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin may enjoy better years and the Padres should have better luck in the future attracting free agent sluggers.

The biggest offseason news of the positive variety from San Diego was the signing of 3B Chase Headley to a one year $8.6 million dollar deal. Headley had a career year in 2012, posting a .498 slugging percentage, hitting 31 homers and leading the NL with 115 RBI. The  one year deal was prudent considering Headley hit a combined 27 home runs in the previous three seasons and has a lifetime slugging percentage of .418.

The offseason news of the negative variety pertained to Yasmani Grandal. Grandal had an 8 HR/36 RBI/.469 stat line in 192 at bats in 2012 and is considered a core player in San Diego’s future. Unfortunately, MLB announced in November that Grandal tested positive for PED’s and will be suspended for the first 50 games of 2013. His name has also been linked to the BioGenesis Clinic PED investigation.

Infielder Jedd Gyorko has the potential to be an impact player in 2013. He hit 24 home runs and slugged .588 at Tuscon of the Pacific Coast League, being named the #10 prospect in the PCL by Baseball America. Gyorko should push for playing time at second base or a corner outfield position.

The Padres #1 prospect according to Baseball America could make a push for a rotation spot sometime in 2013. Casey Kelly had a strong 2011 at Double A San Antonio but missed much of 2012 with an elbow injury. He pitched well at the Double and Triple A levels, but struggled in 6 six starts with the Padres in 2012.

Another prospective starter Andrew Cashner suffered a lacerated thumb in a hunting accident. He may miss the first month of the season. Despite the strong finish a Padre miraglo will be needed to compete in the NL West. Byrnes was wise to save the organizations resources and attempt to build from within. University of Miami teammates Grandal and first baseman Yonder Alonso must take the next step in their development. Hopefully for the Friars, Jedd Gyorko can transfer his hitting numbers from the PCL to Petco and provide a legitimate presence at either second base or right field. Pitching prospects like Casey Kelly and Cory Luebke must also pan out for the Padres to have a realistic chance at competing.

Even if Padres fans prayers are answered, and everything breaks their way, anything above a fourth place finish should be considered a small miracle.

There really aren’t many players more valuable than Chase Headley.

I was perusing MLB Trade Rumors in search of Headley news when I noticed that the lovely Tim Dierkes projected Headley to get something like a four-year, $40-50 million extension with the Padres. It was at this point that I realized Chase Headley is one of the few players in baseball who has a legitimate chance to wind up underpaid relative to talent level. It’s certainly very rare, but it can absolutely happen in today’s game, and Headley has just the right skill set to cost himself money.

Headley’s obviously a very talented player who has been rumored to be on the verge of a true break out for years now, but his big year didn’t come until last season at age 28. Still right in the prime years of his career, Headley has a solid chance to build on the new level of production he’s established for himself. Perhaps part of the problem is that a concern exists that Headley will revert back to the player he was before the start of the 2012 season. Thing is, that’s not a problem when it comes to making a long-term commitment to the guy.

Sure, ideally Headley would pile on dominant season after dominant season going forward, but he’s still plenty valuable even if he doesn’t. He’s a truly unique player in that he has a skill set that should really be appreciated by almost any kind of fan but somehow isn’t anyway. Headley caught the attention of baseball fans in large part because of his 2012 power numbers, which were much more substantial than what any of us are used to seeing. Headley’s raw athletic ability and patient approach at the plate suggest he may have more big power seasons in him, and Petco is finally moving its fences in. Even if Headley only clears the wall a dozen times a season from here on out, though, he remains an asset thanks to his glove, solid base running, and sophisticated work at the plate.

FanGraphs’ UZR has consistently lauded Headley’s work at the hot corner, and scouts have done very little but concur that he can handle the position very well. Headley is also typically a smart base runner who makes very few mistakes, and his walk rates have only been escalating more and more as his career progresses. Third base simply isn’t the power hitter position it once was, and a player like Headley who deftly handles the position while ensuring a high OBP and virtually mistake-free fundamental play is very valuable.

Over the last three seasons, Headley has been worth 15.1 WAR according to FanGraphs, a very impressive total that translates to over $60 million of production through the site’s valuation system. That’s pretty incredible, but unless Utley logs eyebrow-raising baseball card numbers again, he may be doomed to be forever underrated or enter the minds of fans as a one hit wonder.

If Brian’s writing strikes your fancy, read his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @vaughanbasepct.

Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

Things went downhill very quickly, however, and Jimenez found himself pitching for the Indians by the middle of the very next season. Instead of finding traction in a change of scenery situation, the numbers have gotten worse and worse ever since. Jimenez was barely more than a replacement level starter in 2012, and he saw his strikeout numbers drop all the way down to 7.3 K/9 while watching his walk rate climb all the way to 4.8 BB/9. While his 2011 season (3.6 WAR, 3.67 FIP) was a disappointment at the time, it’s really 2012 that raises the truly alarming flags.

Jimenez’s velocity is down — way down — from its 2010 point (95.8); his average fastball velocity was just 92.5 in 2012, and for a guy that once averaged 96.7, that drop is pretty severe. Consequently, hitters aren’t chasing as many of his out of the zone offerings, and they’re squaring up the ball against him regularly, something that just didn’t happen in 2009-10, his peak seasons. Indeed, there’s much to be worried about when it comes to the downward trajectory Jimenez is on, but he’s still young enough to recapture his success in theory, and it’s certain many teams are hoping to buy low.

Enter the Padres. They’ve been linked to various free agent starters all offseason so far, but general manager Josh Byrnes has been quoted as saying that a trade would make much more sense, as that would allow his team to avoid paying exorbitant prices for talent. Jimenez, who is getting far fewer ground ball outs these days, may in fact benefit from moving to such an extreme pitcher’s park, but he can no longer be considered a top shelf starter. Should San Diego be able to wrangle him loose from the Indians for a modest return, he’s a worthy reclamation project, but at this point something seems very wrong with the once promising starter.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

Grandal, 23, played in 60 games for the Padres in 2012 as the team’s catcher of the future, but he must sit out the first 50 games of the 2013 season as punishment for testing positive for testosterone use under the Major League drug policy. The hits keep on coming. Bartolo Colon of the A’s got nabbed at the height of the pennant race. Melky Cabrera lost out on being part of a World Series champion San Francisco Giants team and perhaps winning the National League batting title. (more…)

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The organization is nowhere near a deal with either veteran starter, but it does seem warranted for San Diego to spend the offseason bolstering its rotation — despite playing in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the game, Padres pitchers combined for just 5.7 WAR (per FanGraphs) in 2012, the second worst mark among all 30 teams. While both of these pitchers would improve the rotation, neither is coming off his best season.

Haren, 32, failed to crack the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2004 (when he spent the majority of the season in the minors) and compiled just 1.8 WAR, by far the lowest total of his career since becoming an established major leaguer. Marcum, who will soon be turning 31, missed significant time in 2012 and posted a deceivingly low ERA (3.7o) thanks to a fortunate BABIP and strand rate. Although he saw an increase in his walk rate (2.98 BB/9), it came with an improved strikeout rate as well (7.91 K/9).

The Padres aren’t looking to sign either pitcher to a long-term deal, which is a wise move considering the health risks involved, and that makes any resulting deal a lot easier to get behind if you’re a fan of the team.

Can’t get enough of Spencer? Check out his work at StanGraphs and follow him on Twitter at @shendricks221.

Grandal turned plenty of heads in 2012, but will miss the first third of the season due to PEDs. Image: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Grandal was part of the package acquired by San Diego from Cincinnati when the Padres sent Mat Latos to the Queen City. Grandal made his big league debut in 2012 and wasted little time in showing why he was rated as the 53rd best prospect in the game by Baseball America. In 60 games for the Padres, Grandal compiled a .297/.394/.469 line that included eight homers and 36 RBI. He also displayed great balance at the plate, walking nearly as often as he struck out; a rarity for a young hitter.

Cynics will look at the above slash line and assume Grandal doped his way to big league success, but this young player has had no trouble at the dish since being selected out of the University of Miami in the first round of the 2010 draft. In three minor league seasons, Grandal has a combined .904 OPS.

While Grandal issued a statement accepting responsibility and apologizing to the fans and his team, he offered no explanation for the positive test. I suppose you can take that for what it is. Had he gone the same route as so many before and claimed it was a tainted supplement that caused the positive test, no one would have believed him anyway. At least he didn’t build a phony website to sell a fake supplement that would have been tainted in order to skirt the punishment like Melky Cabrera did.

Grandal was slated to be the Padres’ number one catcher headed into 2013, but with him suspended, the team will turn to Nick Hundley and John Baker in tandem behind the plate. Many had considered Baker a non-tender candidate before the Grandal news came out.