MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 AL Cy Young candidates thru April
With Major League Baseball’s All-Star voting starting earlier than ever, it’s never too soon to start thinking about MLB awards candidates for the league’s top awards. This season has seen the rapid rise of many big name pitchers while some of the league’s top hurlers have yet to get into a consistent groove.
In the American League, household names are once again dominating the AL Central, while newcomers like Jordan Zimmerman are quickly dominating in their new homes. Last year’s AL Cy winner, Dallas Keuchel, has yet to dominate like last season – but could soon get back on track.
Here’s the our rankings of the top five AL Cy Young Candidates entering May, with all stats current entering May 2.
Next: Honorable Mentions
Honorable Mentions
Dallas Keuchel
is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, but he’s yet to reclaim his dominant form from 2015. He is quickly improving as he continues to rack up innings. A
looks bad on the surface, but his 2.99 FIP proves better days are on the horizon. However, it should be noted that his BB/9 is up to 3.58 from 1.98 last season.
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Next: Number 5
5. Rick Porcello – BOS
32.2 IP, 5-0, 2.76 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .200 BAA, 36 K, 0.5 WAR
While teammate David Price is mowing more hitters down in the AL than any other pitcher, it’s Rick Porcello who has positioned himself the best for a 20 win campaign. He’s second on the club amongst starters in earned runs allowed and sits at sixth in the AL in strikeouts ahead of names like Corey Kluber and fireballer Garrett Richards.
Porcello’s 14-10 Red Sox are competing nicely amidst a talented AL East pool of offensive juggernauts. Given that, it’s really tough to overlook his perfect 1.000 winning percentage.
Traditionally a ground ball pitcher, Porcello’s 9.92 K/9 is up substantially from his career norm of 5.92. It’s been a consistent trend for him over the course of the last few seasons though, as he saw it rise from 5.67 in 2014 — his final year in Detroit — to 7.80 in 2015 with Boston. It’s an interesting development and considering he’s a top five candidate, Porcello’s strikeout totals are something to keep an eye on.
Next: Number 4
4. Taijuan Walker – SEA
30 IP, 2-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .241 BAA, 29 K, 0.9 WAR
It may have taken a few seasons, but Taijuan Walker is finally showing why he was regarded as the top pitching prospect in the Seattle Mariners’ system for several years. The 23-year-old has come out of the gates firing for the M’s and has established himself as the clear number two to ace Felix Hernandez.
Much of Walker’s success can be attributed to his ability to generate ground ball outs while still striking out batters at a solid clip. With a 55 percent ground ball rate and 8.70 K/9, Walker is among the best pitchers in the game at mixing up his approach to various hitters. In addition, he’s the owner of an impressive 0.36 HR/9 along with only 6.3 percent of fly balls hit against him leaving the park.
Walker is also limiting his walks, as he only has three in 30 innings pitched, which is good for a 0.90 BB/9. With 29 strikeouts on the season, Walker is consistently throwing hitters off with his varied approach. It’s worthy to note that right-handers were hitting .283 against him, but he’s baffling lefties to the tune of a .163 average through his first four starts. Those splits should remain consistent this season, but will likely even out as the 23-year-old matures in his approach.
It’s hard to see Walker winning the Cy this season, but not many expected a little known Dallas Keuchel to take the league by storm in 2015. Expect big things from Walker if he can hold up under the pressure of being the team’s number two starter on paper.
Next: Number 3
3. Jose Quintana – CWS
30.2 IP, 3-1, 1.47 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .230 BAA, 32 K, 1.3 WAR
Not many expected Chicago White Sox pitcher Jose Quintana to get off to such a blazing start, but a month into the season, he’s been among the best in the game along with teammate Chris Sale. Quintana has quietly been one of the more effective pitchers over the last three seasons and at 26, it looked as if he had reached his peak last year. Not so fast, though, as Quintana is gunning for recognition on a resurgent White Sox team this season.
After topping 200 innings in each of the past three seasons, Quintana gained a reputation as an all-around solid starter with no one standout attribute. His strikeout and walk numbers have been decent for the past few seasons, but this year, Quintana is striking out more batters than ever. While his ground ball rate has decreased by nearly 10 percentage points, he’s at a career-high 9.39 K/9. Couple that with a 2.35 BB/9, and Quintana is slowly mastering the art of limiting base runners.
More impressively, opponents have managed a .321 BABIP against Quintana, proving his pure stuff has improved enough to get hitters out. Without a stark increase in velocity, Quintana’s improvements can be attributed to his increased use of his two-seam fastball and change-up.
With a clear track record as a solid number two or three starter, Quintana’s floor is very high – but with recent improvements, Quintana could soon be sharing or even stealing headlines from Sale and youngster Carlos Rodon.
Next: Number 2
2. Chris Sale – CWS
43.1 IP, 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, .171 BAA, 38 K, 1.0 WAR
With trade rumors swirling around his name this past offseason, Sale and his White Sox teammates have worked quickly to shut down any possibility of a trade by jumping out of the gates to a 18-8 record. After a down 2015 season by his standards (3.41 ERA), Sale is off to a quick start leading a dominant Sox rotation.
While he’s not striking out as many batters as previous seasons, Sale is doing a much better job at limiting home runs and pitching to contact as compared to last season. This year, the 27-year-old is only allowing home runs on 7.5 percent of fly balls, which is down from 12.5 percent last season.
More notably, however, his walks are at a consistently low 1.87 BB/9 – which is much improved from the 2.02 mark he posted in 2014. The decrease in strikeouts could be attributed to a decrease in velocity, as Sale is now averaging 93.2 mph on two-seam fast balls after throwing 94.5 mph in 2015. He has also cut down to three pitches, as he’s completely removed the cutter and splitter from his repertoire.
Still, Sale has 38 strikeouts, good for fifth most in the American League. He will continue to improve as he refines his overall approach and looks to gain status as the top pitcher in the AL.
Next: Number 1
1. Jordan Zimmermann – DET
33 IP, 5-0, 0.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .224 BAA, 23 K, 1.0 WAR
A down season with the Washington Nationals kept Jordan Zimmermann from locking down a $200 million dollar contract this offseason, but with a dominant start this season, his $110M deal with the Detroit Tigers is looking like a bargain. The soon to be 30-year-old is baffling hitters left and right with a consistent approach that includes four plus pitches.
Arguably, Zimmermann’s best trait is his ability to limit fly balls and home runs, as his HR/FB rate sits at an eye popping 2.7 percent while his HR/9 is only 0.27. In 33 innings pitched, the righty has only allowed one home run. With more ground ball outs this year, he is back to the approach that brought him so much success from 2012-2014.
Zimmermann has never been a strikeout pitcher, as evidenced by his career 7.39 K/9 — currently down to 6.27 this season – and that can be an asset as his velocity begins to decrease. This season, he’s nearly one mph slower in his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, but it likely won’t be a major concern if he can continue his success as a ground ball pitcher.
Next: Top Five AL MVP Candidates Through April
With a 2.69 FIP, Zimmermann has no clear obstacles to continuing his dominance this season, and should continue to assert himself as the ace of the Tigers staff in the coming months.