MLB: Top Five AL Cy Young Contenders For May

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With two months in the books, the race for the AL Cy Young Award is heating up and taking shape. Which pitchers are proving to be amongst the best in the MLB?

The American League Cy Young race in May shifted into a central direction.

Half the pitchers ranked call the AL Central home and, as everyone but the Minnesota Twins settles in for a long hot summer, what these hurlers do will mean more than just an award.

With two-thirds of the season to go, we should know by now who the five best contenders are. The question is, can they keep up their dominant pace?

What looks clear right now is whoever wins the Cy Young will be a first time winner as none of the ranked ten ever won it. That shows the depth of pitching throughout the MLB right now.

As with the divisions themselves, the race for Cy Young is far from settled. You could make a case for seven pitchers to win. Only one pitcher profiled has an ERA above 3.00. Two have a WHIP under 1.000.

Without further ado, here are the top five pitchers in the race for the AL Cy Young with five others to watch out for.

All the statistics you will see are as of the close of business on May 31.

Next: Those Outside the Top 5

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BEST OF THE REST

Before we get to the top five Cy Young contenders, let’s take a quick look at No. 6-10.

6. Stephen Wright, for the Boston Red Sox has had a fantastic year. A 5-4 record with a 2.45 ERA in 10 starts are all career bests. Featuring a knuckleball that dances better than any contestant on Dancing With the Stars, Wright has charmed New England. His three complete games ties him with Chris Sale for the AL lead. He is also in the top 10 in pitching WAR at 1.8 (10^th), a WHIP of 1.091 (6^th), an ERA 2.45 (6^th) and an ERA+ of 181 (3^rd). Allowing 6.459 hits-per-9, good enough for 5^th, Wright is keeping hitters guessing. Can he keep up this run as the season goes along? The Red Sox will need him strong as they make a playoff run.
7. One of the feel-good stories if the year, Rich Hill keeps grinding along for the Oakland Athletics. In his first year on the west coast, Hill is 8-3 with an ERA of 2.25 (2^nd in the AL). Not bad for a pitcher who has not been a full-time starter since 2007. He bolstered his chances in May with a 5-1 mark posting an ERA of 2.13. Now the staff ace with Sonny Gray on the disabled list, Oakland will need him to keep pounding the strike zone if they are to climb back in the race. Hill’s FIP is 2.67 (2^nd) and ERA+ is 178 (4^th). His WHIP, however, is outside the top 10.
T8. Chris Tillman of the Baltimore Orioles has pitched the Birds into second place in the AL East with a 7-1 record and an ERA of 2.92, good for tenth in the league. Going 5-0 in May, Tillman pitched his way into contention for his first Cy Young. With him striking out 8.6 per nine, he will keep AL hitters missing pitches. If Baltimore can hold their spot, Tillman will need to continue at this level. An increase in walks and home runs allowed in May, 19 walks and five homers in 39.2 innings, is something to keep in the back of your head as the season goes along.
T8. An injury dropped Jordan Zimmerman of the Detroit Tigers this month. In his first year with the Tigers, he won the AL Pitcher of the Month for April and is 7-2 overall. With an ERA of 2.52, his ERA+ of 162 is seventh-best and his 2.1 WAR is eighth. The injury made May a bad month. A 2-2 record with a 4.88 ERA for the month hurts his chances. Allowing five homers in 27.2 innings did not help. With Justin Verlander finding old form and the Tigers on the rebound, Zimmerman will have plenty of chances to strut his stuff this summer.
10. Josh Tomlin of Cleveland Indians rounds out the top 10. With a 7-1 won/loss record and pinpoint control, his 0.988 walks-per-9 leads the league, Tomlin, Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber are keeping the Indians right in the thick of a hot race for the AL Central. A 3.79 ERA, on the other hand, hurts him. When batters make contact, the ball flies. In 54.2 innings, Tomlin has surrendered 23 earned runs and ten home runs.

Next: A Revival in The Bronx

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5. MASAHIRO TANAKA, NEW YORK YANKEES

3-0 W/L, 2.89 ERA, 144 ERA+, 0.964 WHIP, 2.2 WAR

Who would have thought ditching the fastball would make anyone a better pitcher?

Do not let his record fool you, Masahiro Tanaka is having a great 2016. His WHIP trails only Chris Sale in the AL. Fourth in WAR and ninth in ERA, the Yankees have found their ace as they try to get in the playoff chase.

With switching to a breaking ball to save an injured forearm, Tanaka is fooling hitters by changing speeds effectively. Sure, he can rear back and throw a fastball, but he is not relying on it.

With five starts in May, Tanaka went 2-0 posting an ERA of 2.91. His numbers on the road are outstanding. Tanaka’s WHIP is 0.832 with an ERA of 1.34 in five starts.

His strikeouts-per-9 dipped from 8.0 in April to 6.9 in May without his OBP changing at all. Hitters reached at a .250 clip both months.

If the Yankees could give him a run or two of support, he would be right there with Sale as the top contender. Although wins are overrated, having three decisions from ten starts holds him back a touch.

Next: An Ace North of the Border

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4. MARCO ESTRADA, TORONTO BLUE JAYS

3-2 W/L, 2.43 ERA, 170 ERA+, 1.020 WHIP, 2.2 WAR

No one in the AL is harder to hit off than Marco Estrada.

Sporting a healthy 5.67 hits-per-9, Estrada is one of the big reasons Toronto is gaining ground on Boston and Baltimore in the East. With his WHIP third-best, ERA ranking fifth and WAR at six, Estrada is building on his excellent 2015 campaign.

In May, Estrada was sensational. In his six starts, he went 2-0 with an ERA of 2.14. Tossing 42 innings, Estrada surrendered a scant 20 hits. Batters hit .138 off him and his OBP was .217. Have another month like that and Estrada could win the Cy Young.

As with Tanaka, Estrada’s strikeout rate dropped, from 9.1 to 7.1. Have pitchers like Estrada learned pitching to contact is not so bad?

The Blue Jays are hitting. If Estrada can build on his solid start as the weather gets warmer, his chances of winning his first Cy Young Award improve. He needs to keep the walks down—his 26 allowed is 9^th in the league—and his FIP is 3.72.

Next: Cleveland's Strikeout King

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3. DANNY SALAZAR, CLEVELAND INDIANS

5-3 W/L, 2.39 ERA, 187 ERA+, 1.144 WHIP, 2.6 WAR

Along with the impressive stat line above, Danny Salazar leads the league in strikeouts-per-9 with 10.74 and is third in FIP at 2.82. Oh yeah, he leads in ERA+ and is second in WAR. Think Terry Francona is not happy in the Cleveland dugout?

In six May starts, Salazar whiffed 46 in 37.1 innings. His control improved, strikeouts-per-walk jumped from 2 to 3.07, and hitters are not solving him. Opponents are hitting .190 of him. Even in his three losses, the batting average jumps to .206.

Salazar is on a pace to match last year’s 185 innings while the ERA is nearly a run lower. If there is a concern going forward, his walk rate is a career-high 4.2-per-9. As of now, it has not hurt him. The Indians are giving him plenty of run support, giving him at least six runs in half his starts. With Cleveland in the hunt for the Central, Salazar will need to keep up the pace.

At 26, he is on the verge of becoming a dominant pitcher. If the Tribe return to the playoffs, Salazar has experience as the starter in Cleveland’s Wild Card game loss in 2013, his 11^th career start. Expect a more confident man this time around.

Next: Controlling the South Side

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2. JOSE QUINTANA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

5/5 W/L, 2.13 ERA, 184 ERA+, 1.028 WHIP, 2.5 WAR

How in the world is someone with nearly a 2.00 ERA have a .500 winning record?

When you read that wins are a nearly useless stat, Jose Quintana is one reason why. His FIP is a staggering 2.29, also a league leader. His control is outstanding, 67 strikeouts to 14 walks, and in 72 innings only two pitches left the yard. Five and five? How?

Run support

Four times this year, the Chicago White Sox failed to score over two runs for Quintana. He dropped all four decisions despite an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.139. Hard for a pitcher to feel comfortable when you feel you have no margin of error. After a hot start, the White Sox sputtered through May with an 11-17 record, that is with a positive run differential of three.

Quintana went 2-4 last month with an ERA of 2.61. To add to the tough luck theme, opponents OBP dipped from .281 to .264 and BABIP sunk from .321 to .281. After a while, that will wear on a pitcher.

With three years of clearing 200 innings pitched in a row, you would think Quintana would not be considered an unknown by casual fans. All but certain to be headed to his first All-Star Game, be sure the rest of baseball will be familiar with his stuff.

Next: Sale of the Century

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1. CHRIS SALE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

9-1 W/L, 2.29 ERA, 171 ERA+, 0.877 WHIP, 2.6 WAR

It will be hard for Chris Sale not to win his first Cy Young Award based on the first two months of 2016.

The Chicago White Sox have a bona fide superstar in Sale, who has finished no worse than sixth the last four years in Cy Young voting.

Sale leads the league in wins, WAR, WHIP and innings pitched. His three complete games ties him for first with Stephen Wright. Sale is third in ERA and strikeouts. A Triple Crown is not out of the question.