Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Preview
Over the course of this trade deadline series, there have been numerous teams on the fence regarding whether they should be buyers or sellers at the deadline. Well, not the Minnesota Twins. After a rough start to the season the Twins just haven’t been able to put together a hot streak long enough to get them back in contention.
At 24-51, the Twins have the worst record in baseball and are currently seven games back of the Angels for the second-worst record in the AL, but just 1.5 games back of the second-worst record in baseball, trailing the Atlanta Braves.
The Twins long-time top prospect Byron Buxton has continued to struggle this season, batting .194 with a .233 OBP. He has improved a little bit since being called up at the end of May, batting .215 with his lone home run and seven of his nine RBI on the season coming in the last month.
Jose Berrios got a glimpse of the big leagues in his four starts, but struggled with the strike zone, earning a BB/9 rate of 7.2 over 15 innings.
Byung-ho Park leads the team in home runs with 12, and strikeouts with 78, even though Miguel Sano has struck out at a higher rate.
Those four players were expected to be a part of the revival in Minnesota this season, and with each of them having a hard time adjusting to the Major Leagues in the season’s first few months, the team finds themselves in the cellar.
As you can probably guess, with three of the aforementioned four players being bats in the lineup, their struggles have hurt the Twins offense overall, as the team ranks 24th in baseball in runs scored, just one run ahead of the Royals and A’s, and six ahead of the Rays in the AL.
On the pitching side, the Minnesota rotation ranks dead last in baseball in ERA with a 5.54, while Colorado is 29th at 5.23. The bullpen has performed better and is subsequently ranked higher, but not by much, with a 4.59 ERA, good for 27th.
One of the team’s biggest potential trade chips, closer Glen Perkins, is out for the season with a labrum injury, so even though the Twins are out of it, they don’t have a lot of big-name talent to ship off at the deadline.
The goal for this trade deadline should be to move players that don’t look like they have long-term futures with the club, freeing up spots on the roster for minor leaguers to showcase what they can do, or give some players an opportunity for a future with the club like they have with Robbie Grossman, giving the Twins a better idea of where they stand for future seasons while also trying to move some salary around to free the pocketbook up a little bit for upcoming free agents.
So without further ado, here is a look at some of the likely candidates to be on the move during the Twins fire sale, and some guesses as to where they could end up.
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Abad still has one year left of arbitration after this season, so flipping him at the deadline could net more of a return for the lefty that has been one of the few solid performers on the mound for the Twins this season. He doesn’t command a high salary, so in theory the Twins could hold onto him, but he is one of their more valuable assets at the moment, so moving him to a contender is the right move.
After an outstanding year with Oakland in 2014 in which he posted a 1.57 ERA, Abad struggled in 2015, posting a 4.15 ERA and seeing his walk rate go from 2.4 to 3.6. He has returned to form in 2016 with Minnesota, earning a 2.16 ERA through the first few months on 2016.
What makes Abad effective is his ability to change speeds, with his fastball sitting in the low 90s, and his change-up averaging 72.5 miles per hour this year, per FanGraphs.
Abad is one of those relievers available that won’t break the bank to acquire, but could be a solid pickup for a team that has fewer prospects to deal. Teams like the Marlins, Cardinals, Tigers and Mariners come to mind as fits for the southpaw’s services.
Next: Versatility is Key
Eduardo Nunez is seeing more playing time this year than he has in just about any year in his career, save for 2011 with the New York Yankees in which he played in 112 games. Nunez has a 118 wRC+ at the moment, and is batting .310 with a .341 OBP and a career-high nine home runs.
He provides speed on the basepaths, collecting 17 stolen bases this season, and has played second, short and third base this year, along with limited time in the outfield over his career.
A right-handed bat means that he could be a fit for a number of teams, but the Red Sox always come to mind with the Green Monster always looming in left, or the Houston Astros and their Crawford Boxes, if Marwin Gonzalez were to go down with an injury.
The San Francisco Giants already have a versatile player on their 40-man roster in Kelby Tomlinson, but he is currently on the disabled list with a sprained left thumb. If the injury lingers, Nunez could be a nice upgrade to have for the Giants, who are also currently without third baseman Matt Duffy. Nunez wouldn’t be a necessity for the even-year warriors, but he would be an upgrade nonetheless.
His power is mostly to left field, and all of his home runs in that direction would have cleared the wall at AT&T, while his one homer to right would have gone high off of Levi’s Landing. The one concern with Nunez’s power as it concerns AT&T would be whether the weather would affect him. While he has nine home runs, all of his Target Field homers have come since May 21, when the average temperature in Minneapolis rose to a high of 70 degrees. San Francisco’s weather at that same time was 67 degrees, and at night the air can be downright frigid. As the temperature drops, the air tends to get thicker and allow fewer balls to find the outfield seats.
Another landing spot could be the Pittsburgh Pirates, since they strike me as the kind of team that won’t necessarily make a huge move, but rather an under-the-radar one that could end up paying off.
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Santana won’t be a free agent until after the 2018 season and has been far from stellar in his time with Minnesota, compiling a 4.27 ERA in 185.2 innings with the Twins. That said, he is a veteran pitcher that can eat innings, and the Twins could be looking to get out from under his contract at the deadline this year.
The Red Sox have money to spend, and need help in their rotation. Steven Wright has been fantastic, David Price has shown signs of returning to his former self, Clay Buckholtz, well nobody knows, Eduardo Rodriguez has been disappointing since coming off the disabled list and has subsequently been sent back to the minors, while Rick Porcello has basically been what Ervin Santana could potentially provide the team.
The move wouldn’t cost the Sox much in the way of prospects, and could give them some depth in their rotation, which ranks 19th in ERA with a 4.67. It’s not a splashy move by any means, but right now the Red Sox farm system is their bread and butter, and money basically grows on trees.
For a point of reference, the Red Sox traded away Jake Peavy and his 4.76 ERA in 2014, and with the Giants he put up a 2.17 ERA in twelve starts with San Francisco. There is certainly a lot more uncertainty when it comes to Santana, who is owed $27 million through 2018, in addition to the rest of this year, but if the Twins take on some of that money while freeing up a great deal of that money for future spending, it could be a deal that makes sense for both teams.
Aside from a rough outing against the Tampa Bay Rays this season, Santana has pitched well against the AL East, totaling a 3.20 ERA over 28.1 innings, with the Tampa Bay Rays giving him the most heartache after hanging five earned on him in six innings back on June 4.
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Trevor Plouffe, like Nunez, can play multiple positions, but they appear to have swapped power numbers this season as Plouffe, who hit 22 homers a year ago, has five thus far in 2016. He will be a free agent after next season, but is making $7.25 million this year through arbitration, making Nunez the hotter hand and the better value as trade bait. Plouffe could find a new home, but the return may not be as great for a player that has been been performing 27 percent below league average. The better bet would be to hold onto this year, hope for a rebound next year, and flip him then.
Kurt Suzuki is a solid defensive catcher that knows how to handle a pitching staff. He hates days off, but if the Twins were to trade Suzuki, he’d likely be relegated to backup duties on most contending teams. He has a $6 million vesting option for next season if he reaches 485 plate appearances this season, but he is roughly 300 away from that total at the moment. With Suzuki batting .273 this season, he is likely an upgrade over just about any other backup catcher out there, if the Twins decide to move him.
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If a National League team decided to take a real chance they could go after Ricky Nolasco, who has a cumulative ERA of 5.42 in his three years with the Twins. Back when he was in the NL he was a smidge better, holding an ERA of 4.37 with the Marlins and Dodgers. It would be a real shot in the dark, but if a team needs depth due to injury concerns, then Nolasco could be a low-risk trade waiting to happen.
The Twins don’t have a lot of high-level talent that they are looking to move with their young core still developing and under years of club control, so even though they’re out of the running this season, there may not be a ton of moves made by Minnesota. That’s why GM Terry Ryan should be looking to move some of the bigger contracts off his books and onto somebody else’s at the deadline, opening up some financial flexibility for the team, and laying the groundwork for next season.