MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL MVP candidates thru June
Not only a crushing blow to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw‘s recent injury has league-wide implications that could affect everything from the trade deadline to MLB awards and distinctions.
Whether you’re a Dodgers fan or just love following the game period, no one wanted to see baseball’s best pitcher having arguably his best season to date hit the disabled list. He would have been a lock to start the All-Star Game for the National League, would have been a top contender for another Cy Young and likely, the MVP as well.
Kershaw has no timetable for a return, but the hasty acquisition of Bud Norris by the Dodgers from the Braves on June 30 doesn’t bode well for future expectations. Nor do the phrases “herniated disc” and “epidural injection” with reference to the ace’s diagnosis.
The injury changes the climate of the entire National League, the NL West especially, and any sort of race for a major award. Here are your top five candidates though MLB’s first three months.
Next: Number 5
5. 3B Matt Carpenter – STL
.296/.419/.581, 54 R, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 0 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
Matt Carpenter‘s wins above replacement number ranks third in the NL and he’s been a steady presence in the club’s lineup and on defense since 2013 when he placed fourth in NL MVP voting.
The second place Cardinals have a lot of work to do in the second half if they are to catch the Cubs in the NL Central standings. Carpenter will need to maintain his play in the upcoming half if the Cards are to make the postseason for their sixth consecutive season.
His power numbers have never been off the chart, but the 30-year-old has been a run scoring machine who gets on-base with the best of them. Carpenter hit only 11 home runs back when he finished fourth on the NL ballot, but he led the NL in runs scored (126), hits (199) and doubles (55).
Since 2013, Carpenter’s power has matured, going deep 28 times in 2015 and driving in a personal high of 84. This season, he has 14 home runs and 49 RBI, but he’s slashing an unreal .296/.419/.581, deriving from it an OPS of .999, which ranks first in the NL. His ability to draw a walk also gives him added value, having led the league with 95 in 2014. He ranks third right now with 55.
Next: Number 4
4. 2B Daniel Murphy – WAS
.351/.394/.588, 47 R, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 2 SB, 158 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
While he’s no longer hitting .397 like at the end of May, Daniel Murphy still leads the NL with his .351 batting average and 104 base hits.
It’s not Bryce Harper who is keeping this offense afloat right now, so Murphy’s production for the first place Washington Nationals cannot be overlooked or under-valued at this point in time.
After previously spending his entire career for the rival Mets, the Nats are getting a lot of bang for the buck right now in Murphy’s $8 million salary through 2016.
Never known to be a player with powerful traits, Murphy has already tied his personal best for taters in a season with 14 and his slugging percentage of .588 as well as OPS .982 ranks second in the NL. Much to the detriment of the Mets and the delight of the Nationals, the 31-year-old Murphy is having a career year.
Next: Number 3
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo – CHC
.284/.407/.574, 46 R, 19 HR, 58 RBI, 2 SB, 158 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
The Cubbies’ first baseman hit only .236 in April and May, though making the best of his opportunities with 11 home runs and 37 RBI, having allowed him to make this list.
Anthony Rizzo has since crushed the ball at a .378 clip in June, registering at least one hit in all but three of 25 Cubs games last month. He’s brought his average up to a tidy .284 and remains top five in the NL in home runs, RBI and OPS.
Rizzo’s monstrous June truly catapulted him into consideration, as no one with more than 50 at-bats in the month came close to matching his 1.212 OPS. The Fort Lauderdale native has traditionally been a better hitter in baseball’s first half (.269-73-224 vs .254-48-150), so it will be interesting to see what he does after the Midsummer Classic in this stacked Chicago lineup.
Next: Number 2
2. 3B Nolan Arenado – COL
.296/.372/.578, 57 R, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, 133 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
Colorado’s new franchise player has been dangerous and consistent all year long. Nolan Arenado hit .308 in April, .269 in May and .311 in June. He has a hefty lead in the NL RBI race at the moment after outpacing everyone else in 2015 with 130 in 2015.
Arenado could be the league’s best defensive third baseman as well. While work with the arm and glove is often overlooked in place of offensive prowess when it comes to the MVP awards, his bulky 3.7 WAR is supplemented by a healthy dWAR of 1.3. Arenado’s UZR of 8.8 is second best at his position throughout MLB (surprisingly, he’s second to Texas’ 37-year-old third baseman, Adrian Beltre).
The Rockies probably won’t make the playoffs again in 2016, prolonging a drought that dates back to the 2010 season, but an MVP doesn’t always have to play on a winning ball club.
Only 25, Arenado led the NL in total bases last season and already has an All-Star, three Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger and a home run title to his credit. It seems like it’s only a matter of time until the BBWAA realizes an MVP award is inevitable.
Next: Number 1
1. 3B Kris Bryant – CHC
.279/.369/.564, 62 R, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 2 SB, 146 wRC+, 3.8 WAR
Like his teammate Rizzo, Kris Bryant also had a superb June with 11 home runs, 23 RBI and posted an OPS of 1.058. Bryant strikes out a lot more than Rizzo, but his stroke has more raw power behind it and it’s showing with his NL leading home run total.
He’s not going to win a hitting triple crown due to a batting average that doesn’t look like it will break .300, but if Bryant can lead the NL in home runs and RBI like Arenado did last season while being an asset on defense for a team that wins a lot of ball games, he’s going to be the Cubs’ offensive MVP.
Unless someone comes from out of nowhere with a legendary July, Bryant has himself in a prime spot to be eligible for a lot of first place votes on the NL ballot.
Next: MLB's all-time Canadian-born team
If Bryant stays on his current trajectory and does indeed win the MVP, he will be the first big leaguer in the NL to follow up a Rookie of the Year award with an MVP the very next season since Ryan Howard completed the feat in 2005 and 2006, respectively.