MLB: Which Wild Card Contenders Pose the Greatest Postseason Threat?

With just a few weeks remaining in the MLB regular season, the Wild Card races in both the National and American Leagues remain far from being settled. Which of these Wild Card hopefuls would have the best chance of advancing deep into the postseason if they got in?

Ever since the two Wild Card team format was implemented back in 2012, there have been a few Wild Card teams that have done some serious damage in October. During the first go around with the new playoff system, the surging St. Louis Cardinals beat the Washington Nationals to make it to the NLDS. Back in 2014, the Royals won the one-game playoff and would eventually get to Game 7 of the World Series. Even last year, the Chicago Cubs were able to beat the Cardinals in the NLDS.

All of this recent winning gives fans of Wild Card hopefuls hope that not only can their clubs crack the postseason, but that they will be able to go deep into the playoffs. Baseball is a sport that can change very quickly and is difficult to predict, especially when it comes to a five- or seven-game series.

While the divisional favorites do look stronger than in years past, there are many potential Wild Card teams that have the pieces to at least challenge the division winners come October. The last time that a Wild Card won the World Series was in 2011, when the Cardinals went on a magical run to end the regular season, which lasted until the final out of the Fall Classic.

But who is the most dangerous Wild Card hopeful in the majors? Here we will go team-by-team to see who has the best chances of going deep into MLB’s postseason.

Note: All of the teams mentioned have a better than minimal chance of making the playoffs. The Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates will not be mentioned. Current division leaders will not be ranked as well, even if their lead is in question.

Next: 9. Houston Astros

9. Houston Astros (76-70, 3.5 games back)

Why they can do damage: When looking at Houston’s roster, it is clear what the team’s strength is. The club has one of the best young lineups in all of MLB. With Carlos Correa, George Springer and MVP hopeful Jose Altuve being staples in the Astros batting order, and now with the addition of the fantastic Alex Bregman, this offense is much better than last year’s squad.

You then factor in the strong play of Cuban signee Yulieski Gurriel, and this team can be dangerous at the plate. And not only is their offense good, it’s dynamic. Jose Altuve is a terror on the bases. Bregman and Gurriel are just solid contact hitters. Then the likes of Evan Gattis and Springer can hit the ball out of the ballpark. Also, with Ken Giles rebounding in the second half of the season, it makes their bullpen much more formidable, although it’s still not lockdown.

Why they won’t: Unfortunately, with all the excitement on the Astros roster, their starting rotation has been a major achilles heel for this team all season. Outside of the solid pitching of Doug Fister, things have been pretty dire. Last season’s AL Cy Young, Dallas Keuchel, has been up and down to put it nicely. Colin McHugh has been a little worse than average this entire year. The club is now relying on talented rookie Joe Musgrove to pick up the slack, which is probably too much to ask. There is just not much to get excited about here with Lance McCullers Jr. continuing to nurse an injury.

Outlook: This is a talented ball club, no doubt. However, their exciting offense and solid bullpen would not be able to make up for them trotting out guys that, for the most part, don’t deserve to be in an MLB playoff rotation. There is some potential here, but the regular season has halted what were high expectations coming into 2016.

Next: 8. Yankees

7. New York Mets (77-69, currently 2nd WC)

Why they can do damage: Like the Yankees, the other team in New York has been defying the doubters and playing the best they’ve played all season in recent weeks. It’s something of a miracle with the injuries the Mets have had to overcome. Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Neil Walker, Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda and David Wright (sigh…) have all spent time dealing with injuries in 2016. But yet, the Mets have remained in thick of the playoff race. Separating themselves from the Marlins and the Pirates, it remains a three-way race for two Wild Card spots in the National League.

Yoenis Cespedes has played very well this entire season, giving the team both power and a high batting average. Mid-season acquisitions Jose Reyes and James Loney have been pleasant surprises as well. However, if this team goes far it’s because their starting pitching is well stocked. Jacob deGrom and Noah Synderaard are fighting through injuries right now and Steven Matz remains on the disabled list. The Mets have stayed alive with some solid performances from Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, but if New York goes far, it will be because their best starters are right and performing to their capabilities.

Why they won’t: While it’s nice to say that injuries won’t be a problem come playoff time, it is unrealistic to think that it is something that will just go away. If they had an injury to one of their dominant young starters that would be fine to get over. But for all of them to be struggling with arm problems, it’s just not a major confidence booster. In addition, their offense is clearly flawed with many of the players not getting on base at a high clip. Overall, it’s hard to imagine their offense being talented enough to overcome some of the issues the club has with its pitching staff.

Outlook: The Mets would have been World Series contenders, perhaps the favorite to knock off the Chicago Cubs if their pitching staff was at full strength. However, that’s just not the situation they are dealing with this year. It’s a shame that injuries have limited the potential of this team, but I see the Cardinals and Giants having better chances to advance out of the NL Wild Card hopefuls.

Next: 6. Seattle Mariners

6. Seattle Mariners (78-68, 1.5 games back)

Why they can do damage: To go along with the theme of the previous two slides, the Seattle Mariners are winners of eight straight and have re-asserted themselves in the American League Wild Card race. Behind a 3-4-5 hitting combo that can match pretty much anyone in MLB, the Mariners have performed up to their preseason hype in recent days. The three-man wrecking crew is made up of Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. All three men have batting averages of .287 or better, with each combing for 98 long balls.

In addition to the middle of the order, there are no real liabilities on Seattle offensively outside of the catcher position (Chris Iannetta or Mike Zunino). Most playoff teams have shutdown closers and their rookie Edwin Diaz has been a brick wall at the end games. In addition to him, the bullpen has plenty of solid relief pitchers to get to the ninth inning. Steve Cishek, Nick Vincent, Vidal Nuno and Tom Whihelmsen can certainly hold their own in a tight game.

Why they won’t: With all this excitement in Seattle, it’s hard to believe that one of the best Mariners players ever would be somewhat of an afterthought. Felix Hernandez has been one of the best starters in MLB for years now, but he has clearly lost a bit of his dominance in 2016. The 30 year-old has pitched to an ERA in the mid 3.00s, but we have all come to expect much more from the right hander.

James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma look to be the postseason starters behind him, which isn’t an ideal option for a team that will have to match up with some much better starting pitchers in the postseason. Taijuan Walker is a bit of a wild card, but he needs to become more consistent to be considered for a postseason start.

Outlook: Overall, the Mariners are one of the more well-rounded clubs on this list. They are solid in all areas and don’t have any glaring weaknesses on their roster. This is both a good and a bad thing as it kind of lowers their October ceiling. There are more dangerous teams on this list because they have elite talent in some specific area that could possibly carry them when they need it. Plus, six of their eight straight victories have come against the lowly Athletics and Angels.

Next: 5. Detroit Tigers

5. Detroit Tigers (78-67, 1 game back)

Why they can do damage: Three words: dominant starting pitching. Even though the Royals were an exception to the rule last year, most successful postseason clubs need aces come the postseason in MLB. Detroit has two dominant starters in rookie Michael Fulmer and former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Fulmer is the clear pick for AL Rookie of the Year with his 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s got the stuff that screams top of the rotation starter and he would slot in nicely right behind veteran Justin Verlander in a playoff rotation.

It would be surprising to say that Verlander would still be the team’s ace after the season he had in 2015, but this season has been a comeback story for the 33-year-old. After a solid first half, the righty has taken off since the All-Star break, not allowing more than three runs in a start since June 26. Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris are young guys that have pitched better as 2016 has gone on too. Not many American League clubs have as much dominance at the top of the rotation as the Tigers do. I didn’t even mention the dangerous Detroit offense. They can put up runs just as well as they ever have in year’s past.

Why they won’t: It’s a familiar qualm with an organization that has been so successful over the past six or seven years, bit the Tigers still have trouble fielding a quality bullpen. Yes, Francisco Rodriguez has settled things down as a closer, even though he isn’t an elite back of the bullpen arm by any means. Also, when you look what Detroit trots out late in the game besides K-Rod, there has to be some concerns. Alex Wilson has put up an under 3.00 ERA thus far, but his K/9 rate of 6.2 shows that he is far from dominant. Justin Wilson and hard thrower Bruce Rondon have had their moments as well, but your bullpen needs to be at least slightly above average if a team hopes to make it to MLB’s final series.

Outlook: Yes, the Tigers have a lot of talent on offense. Yes, they do have a fantastic 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation. Yes, they have had all of those things before. While the roster has some great ballplayers and there is a lot to like about this group, not much has changed in terms of years past. This points to a possibly one series win, separate from the team’s 2012 World Series appearance.

Next: 4. Orioles

4. Baltimore Orioles (80-65, currently 1st WC)

Why they can do damage: Baltimore has two things going for them. Hitting the ball out of the park and shutting down their opponents late in ballgames. Looking at the team’s batting order, it has to be the most powerful lineup in all of baseball. There really isn’t a player that they send to the batter’s box that can’t hit the ball a long way. The O’s lead the entire MLB in home runs and have scored the tenth most runs as well. Power doesn’t always necessarily play in colder temperatures, but it can certainly be a game changer.

However, I would contend that what makes the Orioles most dangerous is their excellent bullpen. Zach Britton has been so good in the closer’s role that he is being considered as a serious Cy Young contender. If that’s not dominance I don’t know what is. Setup man Brad Brach was also an All-Star this season. He’s been a little more hittable since then, but he’s still a high quality bullpen arm. In addition to their young hurler Mychal Givens, the club is getting high-profile relief arm Darren O’Day back from an elongated stay on the disabled list in the coming days.

Why they won’t: Obviously, much has been made about the Orioles lack of quality starting pitching. But another one of the main concerns is the lack of diversity in the Orioles lineup. This team has the tendency to slump because they strike out at a high rate and are not a team that gets on base at a high clip. This can lead to trouble, as the Royals have shown the past few seasons that having men who can wreak havoc on base is a crucial part of a successful postseason club. Now that is not to say that all World Series contenders are the same, but it is something to keep in mind.

Back to the starting pitching, things have gone a little better of late for the O’s. Kevin Gausman is throwing the best he ever has over his past five starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since August 18. The young pitcher has also made four appearances in which he did not allow an earned run in his time on the mound. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a revelation in September as well and Chris Tillman is now back from the disabled list. Still, having a postseason staff of Tillman, Gausman and Dylan Bundy is not too comforting given their overall lack of experience and the inconsistencies of all three hurlers.

Outlook: Baltimore has an elite power game and an outstanding bullpen. But is this enough to make the most dangerous Wild Card team? I would lean against it because starting pitching and getting on base is so crucial low scoring games, which happens a ton in October. They aren’t the worst bet of this bunch to be the Wild Card team to make a run, but the O’s certainly aren’t the best bet either.

Next: 3. St. Louis Cardinals

3. St. Louis Cardinals (76-69, 0.5 games back)

Why they can do damage: St. Louis is one of those teams that kind of just sits around in the background and then sneaks up on you with how their roster is coming together. Throughout the year, the Cardinals roster has gone through some transformation. After losing Jhonny Peralta to start 2016, the team inserted unheralded rookie Aledmys Diaz as their everyday shortstop, who surprised many with a strong first half and an All-Star appearance. The team also took Trevor Rosenthal out of the closer’s role in favor of offseason signing Seung-hwan Oh. The former Korean and Japanese league star has been spectacular in the ninth inning, giving the team another solid arm in what has turned out to be an above average bullpen.

However, the x-factor for the Cardinals remains electric rookie pitcher Alex Reyes. The 22-year-old was called up in early August and has pitched both in short and long appearances thus far, both of which he’s been very successful in. Adding a versatile arm like Reyes who can throw triple digits in stints would be a weapon in October. The Cardinals offense is also solid all-around and has gotten even better with Diaz coming back from injury and Randal Grichuk finding the power stroke he had in 2015. I don’t see any real weak spots in this batting order and having a good bullpen is always a positive entering postseason play.

Why they won’t: There is a reason that the Cardinals have been a steady playoff contender without really making a run. Of course, it doesn’t help to be in the same division as MLB’s best team, Chicago Cubs. But that hasn’t been the only problem. St. Louis’ starting rotation has not pitched as well as many would have thought before this season started. They have proven pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. However, neither is having a typical season for them. Mike Leake was solid for the Giants last year, but he’s been nothing more than an innings eater. In fact, Carlos Martinez is the only starting pitcher that has an ERA under 4.00. If the Cardinals starting staff was pitching to their career lines, they may be even higher than they are on this list right now.

Outlook: This is a solid group of players. The Cardinals offense is finally complete with Peralta and Diaz back in the lineup together. Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter are veterans that are still producing and have been in the postseason before. The club also has one of the better bullpens that no one is talking about right now, especially with the addition of Reyes. But while the rotation is proven, they just aren’t pitching well enough to be considered better positioned than the two teams above them.

Next: 2. Toronto Blue Jays

2. Toronto Blue Jays (79-66, currently the 2nd WC)

Why they can do damage: Starting pitching is everything in the postseason and the Blue Jays have had the best rotation in the American League for the majority of this season. Not only does Toronto have guys who slot in at the top of a rotation, but they are also a deep group as well. J.A. Happ has been the club’s ace, picking up where he left off with the Pirates last season. Marco Estrada has been a bargain after signing a two-year, $26 million contract this past winter. Aaron Sanchez, who is just 24 years old, was maybe pitching the best of any starter in the American League in June and July, even though he’s on an innings limit and has struggled in his most recent outing, allowing six runs in just under four innings of work.

All of these guys have overshadowed Marcus Stroman, who was the team’s Game 5 starter against the Texas Rangers in last year’s playoffs. The Blue Jays offense is still dangerous, albeit not as explosive as last year’s squad. Having Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki and a healthy Josh Donaldson still puts Toronto in the upper echelon of offenses in MLB.

Why they won’t: I’ve mentioned multiple teams who have been on hot streaks in September, but Toronto is one of the few teams going in the opposite direction. After being neck and neck with the Boston Red Sox for the division lead two series ago, the Jays missed an opportunity by dropping the rubber match of that crucial three game set. The team then couldn’t take advantage of the AL East’s cellar dweller, Tampa Bay Rays, as they dropped a series to them as well.

This combined with the recent injury to Josh Donaldson should make Blue Jays fans concerned with whether they will even make it to the playoffs. Now, there has been no timetable announced as of yet, but there should be at least some level of concern being that he is one of MLB’s best players. The bullpen is also not as good as many other clubs that will be playing in October. Roberto Osuna is still a great option in the ninth inning and Joaquin Benoit has been a revelation since the Jays acquired him from the Mariners, but I wouldn’t call their pen reliable outside of Osuna.

Outlook: If healthy, the Blue Jays have the best upside of any team in the American League Wild Card race. They have the starting pitching, the offense and a lockdown closer to build upon what they did last year. However, there are still a lot of things working against them. As I said before, Donaldson is not 100 percent at the moment and the team is not as dominant late in the game because of their bullpen. If everything falls right, Jays fans will be happy, but the club’s recent struggles have lowered my expectations for how far they could go.

Next: 1. San Francisco Giants

1. San Francisco Giants (77-68, currently 1st WC)

Why they can do damage: Winning three championships in five years has to give a team like the Giants the benefit of the doubt, despite the fact the club is 20-35 since the All-Star break. Even with the stumble the team has gone on over the past two months, San Francisco still has all the pieces to make a deep postseason run. Madison Bumgarner is one of the best options in MLB for a one-game playoff. Combine the big lefty with the way Johnny Cueto has pitched and the Giants have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball.

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Matt Moore has been much better since being traded on August 1, and while Jeff Samardzija has fallen off after a hot start to the year, he is a capable to make an outing in October. The Giants are throwing a rotation that can at least compete with the likes of the Cubs and Nationals. With the Mets’ injuries, I would say that the Giants have the best rotation of any National League club outside of the Nationals and Cubs. Bruce Bochy has a track record of success in the postseason, and while their roster should be the main area of analysis for their postseason chances, you can’t discount past results.

Why they won’t: For everything I said about the track record and the starting pitching, the fact still remains that they had been playing poorly in the second half of the regular season. There are many reasons for this, but I’m going to address their team as a whole. Their lineups still has Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, but there are better offenses out there. In the bullpen, there still isn’t a set closer, which is something the team has never had to deal with in October (see Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo). Plus, the Giants are going to have to deal with the Cubs even if they do win the Wild Card game. Now, this is true for any NL Wild Card, but it’s still not a good situation for anybody.

Outlook: In terms of their chances, it may be odd to see a team playing so poorly and that will inevitably play MLB’s best club as baseball’s top Wild Card contender. What makes them the most dangerous is their track record for success and the overall pieces that they have. A postseason rotation of Bumgarner, Cueto and Moore has the potential to be unhittable, while the offense has the pieces to put enough runs on the board. The Giants have been in this position before and when measuring them against other teams on this list, they deserve to be at the top because of their roster construction and past results.

Next: Rays Top 5 Players

Which Wild Card contender do you think would do the most damage in the postseason? Share your thoughts below.