MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

With the offseason approaching in less than two months, and all teams’ rosters mostly settled for the year, it’s a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team. We continue the series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

At 74-75 (as of September 20), this season has been a clear disappointment for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After three consecutive, albeit unsuccessful, playoff appearances, the team was looking to take the next step this year. With the combination of injury troubles, a struggling Andrew McCutchen, and a descending pitching staff, the Pirates have hovered around .500 most of the year. With the Chicago Cubs having their own historic season in the NL Central, Pittsburgh has quietly fallen short of expectations.

After finishing 11th in runs scored last season, the Pirates are now 13th. This doesn’t seem to be the problem. It’s the pitching staff which has dropped from 2nd to 15th in ERA from 2015 to 2016 that is the culprit. An inconsistent season from ace Gerrit Cole coupled with the poor season leading to his departure from Francisco Liriano has held the Bucs back all season.

The bullpen has been steady, with more than a few players having good seasons. The focus can be made on the starting rotation, as its collective ERA of 4.68 is 22nd in MLB.

Though not eliminated from the playoffs yet, the Pirates should start looking at next season soon. At five games behind the Giants for the second Wild Card spot with the Cardinals to pass, Pittsburgh is a long shot to be playing meaningful October baseball with only 13 games left on the year.

A mid-tier team as far as payroll goes, the Pirates have done well to lock down their own homegrown stars. Their outfield, along with Josh Harrison, David Freese and Francisco Cervelli are under contract for the foreseeable future. Pitching will be the focus all offseason, as the team will look to fill in a rotation that should see youngsters Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow pitch behind Cole.

There are some decisions to make on offense, such as the free agency of role players Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce. These are only two of five free agents for the Pirates, as they will have plenty of decisions to make once they are done watching the World Series from home. Let’s begin by taking a look at these upcoming free agents and what Pittsburgh is expected to do.

Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.

Upcoming Free Agents

*Discounts Nova’s stats with Yankees in 2016

Five free agents: four of which have improved their stock to varying degrees with the Bucs this season. First, we’ll look at the two who have seen their stock skyrocket since donning a Pirates jersey.

Ivan Nova, or J.A. Happ 2.0, has been much talked about in the past month and a half within the baseball community. Acquired for next to nothing from the Yankees, Nova has pitched brilliantly in nine starts so far in Pittsburgh. Last year, J.A. Happ was very similar. Acquired in a quiet buy-low move, and transformed to a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher. He went on to sign a three-year, $36 million contract with the Blue Jays and has rewarded them with a very good season. Nova, on the other hand, has not pitched as well as Happ did with the Pirates.

In 11 starts, Happ pitched to a 1.85 ERA down the stretch for Pittsburgh. Nova has been good, but not as good. He should be expected to cash in on a very weak free agent market for pitchers, but most likely not with the Pirates. With many young pitchers coming through the system, Pittsburgh will not throw money at Nova to be a number-three starter and he will sign for about three years and $30 million elsewhere.

The next player who has seen his stock increase tremendously is Matt Joyce. A former key player for the Rays, Joyce had a hard time finding a job this offseason, and for good reason. He hit .174 with only five long balls in over half a season’s worth of games for the Angels last year. Joyce has shown again this season his ability to hit for power, especially against righties. While not an everyday caliber player, Joyce will get a nice multi-year deal worth around $5 million a season, but not with the Pirates. With a full outfield, Joyce is a luxury the team cannot afford, and they will have to go searching for the next Matt Joyce in the offseason.

That is the problem with buy-low options for a mid-market team such as the Pirates. Once the moves work (Joyce and Nova), they are gone soon after to chase money the Pirates don’t have, and the process to find a buy-low move continues. That is, however, how GM Neal Huntington keeps a job, as he is terrific at it.

Other free agents include utility man Sean Rodriguez. He has been a valuable piece of the club’s offense, all while playing every position on the field besides pitcher and catcher. Rodriguez has seen his stock increase as well, as he has hit 17 home runs with 51 RBI in very limited work. Though appearing in 128 games, the super utility player only has 260 AB. That accounts for 15.29 AB/HR, which would rank among the top 15 if he qualified. He and teammate Jung Ho Kang join Ryan Howard as the only players in MLB to amass 50 RBI in under 340 AB. Unfortunately for the Pirates, Rodriguez will get better money elsewhere and perhaps an opportunity to start every day. Expect him to earn a two- or three-year deal worth about $8-10 million annually.

Neftali Feliz’s roller coaster career continued, as he had a decent season in the pen. A flamethrower with a high ceiling like Feliz is valuable, even if he is only “decent.” Depending on how the Pirates front office feels about him, he could be back. This would be on a short term deal around $4-5 million annually. If the Pirates see a regression coming in Feliz’s sudden improved walk rate, he could be elsewhere next season as well.

The last free agent is Ryan Vogelsong. While not having a good season by any standards, he has come in and done what is expected of him, pitching to a 4.00+ ERA with limited strikeouts. The only player to not improve his stock, the 39-year-old pitcher could find a minor league contract elsewhere if he decides to pitch again, but it will not be in Pittsburgh.

Overall, the Pirates could very easily see all five pending free agents gone, unless some sort of circumstances change. Joyce and Vogelsong will surely be gone, while Nova, Feliz and Rodriguez will most likely find more money elsewhere.

Under Contract

23 HR C Francisco Cervelli 3.5 M 9 M 22 M to 2019 1.3 .262/.377/.305, 14.5 BB% UTIL Josh Harrison 5.25 M 7.75 M 10.25 M 2018, 22 M in CO to 2020 1.4 .283/.311/.388, 19 SB RP Antonio Bastardo 5.38 M 6.63 M FA 0.2* 22 G, 2.29 ERA* OF Starling Marte 3.33 M 5.33 M 18.1 M to 2019, 24 M in CO to 2022 4.0 .311/.362/.457, 47 SB 3B David Freese 3 M 6.25 M 4.25 2018,

6 M CO 2019 1.9 .268/.351/.408, 12 HR 1B John Jaso 4 M 4 M FA 0.3 .263/.348/.391, 23 2B IF Jung-Ho Kang 2.5 M 2.75 M 3 M 2018 2.2 .262/.358/.525, 19 HR OF Gregory Polanco 535 K 1.6 M 33.4 M to 2021, 26 M in CO to 2023 2.7 .261/.326/.477, 22 HR C Chris Stewart 1.35 M 1.4 M 1.5 CO 2018 0 .214/.319/.286, 12 BB Totals 42.01 M 58.92 M 91.25 M, 185.25 M w/CO’s 15.1 –

*Discounts Bastardo’s stats with Mets in 2016

CO = Club Option

The Pirates have done a terrific job in locking up their own talent to very reasonable extensions. Most importantly, young outfielders Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte are locked up for the foreseeable future while they continue to improve. Both are elite fielders, and Marte has taken the next step as a hitter while also on pace to steal 50 bases.

Jung Ho Kang dealt with an injury early on and was then in legal trouble during a trip to Chicago. All of this has overshadowed his tremendous performance for such a small salary. With 19 home runs in a half season, Pirates fans can be very excited to see Kang play an entire year in 2017 if healthy.

Star Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison slightly regressed this year, but still are not strains on the payroll as they have maintained productivity by their base running and fielding. McCutchen should be expected to bounce back to better offensive numbers, and Harrison will most likely continue to hit for a high average without much power. His 13 home runs in 2014 were most likely a fluke, as he has eight in 905 at-bats since.

All three of Chris Stewart, Antonio Bastardo and John Jaso can be let go after the 2017 season with no salary repercussions, and that is most likely what will happen. Jaso struggled in his first season in Pittsburgh and there seems to be no room for him anymore. With David Freese signed to an extension, he will most likely man first base with Kang at third. Unless the team is comfortable with Kang at short, which they have not shown yet, there will most likely not be a starting spot for Jaso. He could take Matt Joyce’s role as a bench player specializing in hitting off of righties, though he has never played the outfield. A productive season next year would go a long way to improving his stock for the 2017 offseason.

Stewart has never hit much, but has regressed after a halfway decent 2015 at the plate. Depending on how much the Bucs value his defense, he may not even be back for the 2017 season.

Bastardo has pitched well so far after being traded from the Mets. Though the Pirates would most likely not pay a middle reliever $6+ million on the open market, they will be fine with one year of Bastardo as long as he pitches like he has thus far in Pittsburgh.

The last player under contract is an interesting one. Francisco Cervelli broke out last year and was extended early in 2016 as a result. The deal looked like a good one, especially after the Pirates lost Russell Martin after 2014. After an injury cost him almost two months, Cervelli has seen his always pedestrian slugging percentage drop to an awful .305 with zero home runs. His average has also dropped a bit, but he has maintained his elite plate discipline. Though his defense is considered good, this contract will look ugly soon if he does not start to improve.

Arbitration

*Discounts stats with Blue Jays in 2016

**Discounts stats with Mariners in 2016

With 10 arbitration cases to consider, the Pirates will have a lot of decisions to make. A surprising seven of the 10 could be considered as serious non-tender candidates. I only predict two to be let go, but let’s look at all the possibilities.

Jeff Locke – After earning a strong $3+ million in his first trip through arbitration, the Pirates will most likely not be willing to give any sort of raise, or anything close to three million to a pitcher who has a 4.92 ERA since 2015.

Juan Nicasio – He has struggled overall, but has pitched to an effective 2.81 ERA since being demoted to the bullpen at the end of June. This performance should earn him a contract, though he won’t get much of a raise.

Drew Hutchison – An interesting trade acquisition, Hutchison was acquired for former ace Francisco Liriano for cap relief, along with catching prospect Reese McGuire. Though he has struggled, the Pirates will not give up on their investment so soon.

Jared Hughes – Though his ERA is good, his negative WAR is telling. As a bullpen arm with a measly 4.7 K/9 along with a below average 3.3 BB/9, Hughes is not as good as his ERA says. But, the goal of pitching is to avoid runs scoring, and he has done a good enough job this year to warrant a contract next year.

Pedro Florimon – A 29-year-old journeyman, Florimon has an impressive five hits in nine AB and should receive a cheap minor league contract offer.

Wade LeBlanc – Recently acquired from Seattle, LeBlanc has pitched well for the Pirates. Maybe they see something in him, and he should receive an invite back to Spring Training in 2017.

Eric Fryer – The veteran catcher has not impressed enough to uproot Chris Stewart from his backup position, and will most likely be gone.

Tony Watson, Gerrit Cole and Jordy Mercer are all sure to get tendered a deal as key pieces to the Pirates’ puzzle. Cole and Mercer may see an extension, as they seem to be a part of the long-term future. Watson will most likely get another one-year deal after an uneven performance as closer after Mark Melancon was dealt.

Final Analysis

With only about $90 million locked up next year, the Pirates have a little wiggle room. This could be used to re-sign one or two of their pending free agents. Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce would seem like an unneeded luxury, though, as the team already has its starting lineup filled out, and John Jaso and Josh Bell on the bench.

More likely, the team will use its extra money to go after a starter, even in this poor free agent class. Though the market lacks top-of-the-line arms, it does hold some promise, especially for elite pitching coach Ray Searage.

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The team can gamble on Brett Anderson’s health, buy low on Andrew Cashner, or pursue a reunion with Edinson Volquez. Beyond those three are Doug Fister, Jeremy Hellickson and their own Ivan Nova. All who will most likely be paid handsomely after their good seasons. Adding one of these pitchers to slot next to Cole, Taillon, Glasnow and another youngster (Hutchison, Kuhl, Brault) can form a promising rotation.

Any extra money can also be used to pursue an extension with Gerrit Cole. After a bit of a down season, Cole may not want to sign an extension when his stock is lower. After the pitcher was strangely upset about his league minimum deal, there were reports he was unhappy with the team’s front office. A fair extension could go a long way in repairing any damages in the relationship between team and ace.

Overall, as a mid-market team, the Pirates are in great shape. They have a very strong core of players locked up, accompanied with some strong younger players who have recently debuted. With continued success of the lineup and a bounce back from Andrew McCutchen, the offense should be just fine, especially with a full healthy season from Jung Ho Kang. The main goal for the offseason should be solidifying the rotation and sorting out all bullpen options.

Next: Will Walt Weiss Be Back in 2017?

With no offseason moves, the team projects to have the following pitching staff:

Starters: Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, Brault, Kuhl

Bullpen: Nicasio, Watson, Hughes, Schugel, Rivero, Hutchison, Bastardo

An impact addition to both the rotation and bullpen will be of top priority for the Pirates this offseason as they look to return to the playoffs in 2017. After all, the team’s core of hitters won’t be in their primes forever.

All contract info found on spotrac.com.