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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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MLB.com's top prospects includes
MLB.com's top prospects includes /

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

PECOTA

91 W, 767 RS, 668 RA—Chicago Cubs (9/5)

81 W, 726 RS, 730 RA—Pittsburgh Pirates (25/1)

76 W, 708 RS, 756 RA—St. Louis Cardinals (12/1)

76 W, 717 RS, 768 RA—Milwaukee Brewers (100/1)

74 W, 730 RS, 802 RA—Cincinnati Reds (100/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

94 W, 766 RS, 646 RA—Chicago Cubs (9/5)

84 W, 719 RS, 692 RA—St. Louis Cardinals (12/1)

82 W, 714 RS, 703 RA—Pittsburgh Pirates (25/1)

70 W, 679 RS, 789 RA—Cincinnati Reds (100/1)

68 W, 682 RS, 812 RA—Milwaukee Brewers (100/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: Tie—St. Louis/Milwaukee, 8 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Cincinnati Reds, 51 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: St. Louis Cardinals, 64 runs

 

Smallest difference in wins: Pittsburgh Pirates, 1 win

Smallest difference in runs scored: Chicago Cubs, 1 run

Smallest difference in runs scored: Cincinnati Reds, 13 runs

 

The defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs are the clear favorites in the NL Central. Both projection systems project them to win the division by 10 games. That being said, neither system projects the Cubs to come close to their 103 wins last year. FanGraphs has the better projection and they are still nine wins short of last year’s total.

The 2016 Cubs scored 808 runs and allowed 556. Their expected record was 108-54, but they finished 103-58, so they actually “should” have won even more games than they did. This year, the projections expect the Cubs to score around 40 fewer runs and allow 90 to 110 more runs. I would guess Cubs’ fans will strongly disagree with these projections.

Two teams in this division have an eight-win difference in their projections from PECOTA and FanGraphs. PECOTA “hates” the Cardinals and “loves” the Brewers when compared to FanGraphs. I put hates and loves in quotes because PECOTA is not human and does not have the capacity to hate or love. The Cardinals won 86 games last year (and 100 the year before), so it’s shocking to see them projected to win just 76 games. The Cardinals haven’t won that few games since 1999. In this case, the FanGraphs projection of 84 wins seems much more reasonable.

The Brewers and Reds are both 100/1 shots in Vegas and are both projected to finish at the bottom of the division, but PECOTA has the Brewers with 76 wins. That’s the same as the Cardinals. FanGraphs has the Brewers winning just 68 games. The difference comes on both sides of the ball. FanGraphs projects the Brewers to score 35 fewer runs than PECOTA projects and to allow 44 more runs than PECOTA projects.

 

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