Detroit Tigers 2017 Team Preview
The Detroit Tigers had an eerily silent offseason in the hopes that the status quo is sufficient for one more playoff push.
If you don’t remember much about the Detroit Tigers this offseason, you are not alone. The Tigers essentially stood pat, hoping that a core of star players has enough left in the tank to return to the postseason for the first time since winning the AL Central each year from 2010-2013.
If you play fantasy baseball, particularly in an auction league, you may be familiar with the stars and scrubs approach. Here, you buy the best players you can and fill out your roster with borderline players. The idea is that the best players provide elite production while the rest don’t hurt you.
The Tigers and GM Al Avila seem to be bringing this approach to a major league roster. The Tigers are extremely top-heavy. The offensive core of Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton and Nick Castellanos can rival the 1-6 hitters in any lineup when healthy. After that, though, the cupboard seems a little bare.
In the rotation, Justin Verlander had an excellent case for winning the Cy Young Award in 2016. Michael Fulmer deservedly won Rookie of the Year honors. Francisco Rodriguez continues to be a strong anchor in the bullpen. Beyond them, while there are certainly some players who can produce, there aren’t really any sure things.
The 2016 Tigers finished 86-75, second in the AL Central behind Cleveland and 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. Can essentially the same roster pick up the few games necessary to reach the playoffs one more time before an overhaul becomes necessary?
On the Move
The offseason got off to an early start for the Tigers, as they sent Cameron Maybin to the Angels in a bit of a salary dump. Maybin was productive in 94 games in 2016, hitting .315/.383/.418, good for a strong 120 OPS+. From this transaction, one might have expected additional significant roster turnover. This was not to be the case.
Backup catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia took his .171 batting average to Toronto. Infielder Erick Aybar went to San Diego. Then… nothing. The old gang’s all still here.
But the Tigers did not supplement their core with many significant new additions. Mikie Mahtook comes over from the Rays at the cost of a player to be named later or cash, and he’s competing with Tyler Collins for playing time in center field. Alex Avila replaces Saltalamacchia as James McCann‘s backup. This is essentially only notable for GM Al Avila bringing his son on board. Veteran second baseman Omar Infante was signed to a minor league contract. He’s not guaranteed to break camp with the big league club.
Former Cardinals closer Edward Mujica and Angels first baseman/outfielder Efren Navarro are notable names who came on board with minor league contracts. But they are really just that: names. They aren’t players who are going to significantly move the needle one way or the other.
These offseason transactions are not going to make or break the Tigers this season. It will all come down to last season’s key cogs improving upon last year’s performance.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
I wouldn’t call the Tigers insane yet, but they really are just trying to do the same thing while expecting a different result. Their key contributors in the lineup all have to stay healthy for most of the season to have a chance at reaching the postseason. J.D. Martinez, though, is already going to miss the first few weeks of the season with a foot injury. The Tigers simply don’t have the depth to weather the storm of these injuries. Steven Moya, Martinez’s temporary replacement, is not a difference maker.
The drop-off from the sixth spot in the lineup to the seventh spot is severe. James McCann, Jose Iglesias and either Tyler Collins or Mikie Mahtook will struggle to turn the lineup over.
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The starting rotation is promising. Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer will provide stability, even star power, at the top. Jordan Zimmermann had a great April last year, and Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd are young enough where they could take significant steps forward.
Francisco Rodriguez provides the veteran presence at the end of the bullpen. He is fourth on the career saves list. Bruce Rondon, Alex Wilson, Justin Wilson and Kyle Ryan are all plenty competent. Beyond Verlander the pitching isn’t special for the Tigers, but it’s enough to be dangerous.
Baseball Prospectus projects Detroit to go 79-83 this season. Fangraphs pegs the Tigers for an even .500 record at 81-81. Vegas is slightly more optimistic, with Westgate setting the over/under at 83.5 wins.
These all seem like good average win totals, but the reality is that the Tigers will probably finish significantly better or worse than .500. If the team gets off to a hot start, reinforcements will likely be added through trades. Otherwise, pending free agents and stars with big contracts could be on their way out.
Next: Sanchez Complicates Tigers' Rotation Decision
There are certainly players to watch on this roster, but a lack of depth makes it unlikely that the Tigers will be able to improve upon last year’s 86 wins without significant reinforcements.